基于引力模型的产业内贸易与区域经济一体化研究

产业内贸易和区域经济一体化是当今国际贸易领域关注的重大理论和实践问题,在新贸易理论中,两者在共同因素的作用下被有机地联系起来。本文结合产业内贸易与新区域经济一体化理论,运用贸易引力模型,对两者之间的关系做计量检验,进而为我国区域经济一体化进程和产业内贸易发展提供相关的政策建议。     

Trade Costs in Bilateral Trade Flows: Heterogeneity and Zeroes in Structural Gravity Models

This paper contributes to the explanation of international trade flows with structural gravity models taking heterogeneity and excess zeroes into account. We introduce a more general hypothesis on the structure of trade costs in Helpman et al. (The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2008; 123 , 2, 441) theoretical model that is capable of explaining over‐dispersion in trade data. Zero‐inflated negative binomial models are considered to analyse the impact of trade costs, measured in terms of geographical distance and contiguity effects. An analysis related to a sample of 37 countries' trade flows, with heterogeneous effects across sectors and trade‐integrated areas, such as APEC and EU, is presented. The size of exporting and destination economies and cultural and institutional factors are considered as influencing both the extensive and the intensive margin of trade.     

Regional Trade Agreements in Mediterranean Area: Econometric Analysis by Static Gravity Model

Since the mid-1980s, there was the rise of a new wave of economic regionalism in the world economy with the spread of free trade agreements (FTAs). A key objective of free trade involves developing commercial exchanges between member countries. The gravity model is a vital tool to explain the bilateral trade data against the variables of the relative size of the pair of countries implicated in the trade: distance, common border, and language and models for each of the FTAs. This article focuses on studying the influence of FTAs in the Mediterranean countries in which we integrate the role of regional dummy EU (15), EMU (euro zone), the AMU and AGADIR agreement in trade flows. The use of regional variables are designed to determine whether its FTAs contribute to the creation of trade diversion. This study examines a cross-section and panel of 27 countries for 1980–2011. The results show the existence of a strong relationship between the factors of FTAs and trade flows.     

Chile's Trade and Regional Integration Policy: An Assessment

This paper examines the economics, politics and political economy of Chile's trade and regional integration (RI) policies, and reaches the following conclusions. First, Chile is likely to obtain static and dynamic benefits from a free trade agreement (FTA) with the US, though the benefits depend crucially on the extent to which its market access to the US improves and on the costs of implementing the intellectual property rights agreement and of enforcing the rules of origin. Second, potential benefits are more doubtful with respect to FTAs with MERCOSUR and the Andean Pact and Central American countries.Third, Chile should complement its ongoing negotiations with the EU by negotiating FTAs with key Asian countries.Fourth, Chile should bind all its tariffs at the WTO at the applied MFN uniform tariff rate. Fifth, the uniform MFN tariff should be reduced below six percent after 2003.     

Sequencing Regional Trade Integration and Cooperation Agreements

Trade integration agreements and other international cooperation agreements have proliferated in recent years around the world. Rather than being spurred by exogenous forces alone, the two phenomena are likely to be both path‐dependent and endogenous to one another. However, the theoretical and empirical understanding of the relationships between agreements forged in different domains of cooperation remains nascent. The purpose of this paper is to describe a new, extensive dataset on international agreements that can be employed to start mending the gaps in the literature, and to develop ‘best practices’ of sequencing international agreements to obtain higher pay‐offs from cooperation. Of particular interest here is the relationship between trade integration and other cooperation agreements; the data provide preliminary grounds for hypothesising that trade integration agreements can be a particularly likely catalyst for further cooperation between states.     

东亚双边进口贸易流量与潜力:基于贸易引力模型的实证研究

本文利用东亚10个主要经济体1995-2004年的面板数据,建立东亚贸易引力模型,对东亚进口贸易流量的影响因素和潜力进行研究。研究显示,国家经济规模、中国-东盟自由贸易区、东盟自由贸易区、进口国制度、国际直接投资、国家间的经济水平差距和地理距离是东亚双边进口贸易流量的主要影响因素。中国香港、泰国、日本和印度尼西亚对东亚的进口潜力较大,中国、马来西亚、菲律宾和新加坡对东亚的进口潜力较小。加强东亚区域内最终产品市场和区域贸易合作的发展、推进东亚各经济体的制度改革和调整、积极合理地引进国际直接投资、加强物流建设与合作,应成为东亚各经济体未来重要的政策取向。     

A Gravity Model Forecast of the Potential Trade Effects of EU Enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and Path‐dependency in Integration

This paper uses a gravity model to forecast the potential impact on trade balances and trade patterns of the 2004 EU enlargement. The results suggest that gross trade creation for the accession economies is about 25 per cent of their 2003 trade. Although membership of the EU creates trade it also results in trade diversion; that is, a declining share of accession country exports and imports with non‐EU15 countries. Overall, the trade balances of the accession countries suffer larger trade deficits after accession due to import growth surpassing export growth. The extent of increase in the trade deficit due to accession is inversely related to the level of integration and income of the new members. Hence integration is path‐dependent and the EU should take this into account when preparing for further enlargements to the Balkans and Southeast Europe.     

中澳服务业产业内贸易及影响因素研究——基于贸易引力模型的分析

随着中国和澳大利亚贸易往来的日益密切,产业内贸易方式会代替产业间贸易方式成为服务贸易的主流。利用澳大利亚统计局数据库2000年～2011年的中澳双边服务贸易面板数据,对中澳服务业产业内贸易水平进行测度,发现在双边服务贸易中服务业产业内贸易所占的比重偏低。进一步运用贸易引力模型对影响中澳服务业产业内贸易的主要因素进行实证分析,研究表明:规模经济、对外开放程度以及外商直接投资对中澳服务业产业内贸易影响较大。     

贸易引力模型的扩展及应用综述

引力模型在双边贸易流量决定因素实证研究中的应用越来越广泛,其理论基础也越来越完善。早期对贸易引力模型的扩展主要体现在研究区域经济合作对双边贸易流量的影响上,近期人们开始通过添加制度质量指标来考察各国国内制度因素以及制度趋同对双边贸易的影响。通过应用引力模型的研究发现,各国制度的优劣对双边贸易有显著的影响,制度相似的国家间贸易量较大。     

对中国—智利自由贸易区贸易效应的引力模型分析

近年来,区域经济一体化的进程不断加快,这是世界经济发展的必然结果。随着中国与拉丁美洲经贸关系的不断发展,中国已和智利、秘鲁和哥斯达黎加三个拉美国家签订了自由贸易协定,为双方的贸易带来了可观的收益,极大地推动了中国参与区域经济一体化的进程。本文在综述国内外相关文献的基础上,以中国与智利的自由贸易协定为例,采用引力模型,定量研究两国的经济一体化程度以及区域经济一体化所创造的贸易效应。     

全球贸易结构演化与贸易增长——基于引力模型的实证分析

本文基于最新的产品空间的理论,提出了一种定量测量出口结构的方法,并基于HS分类码6位细分的商品结构数据得到了双边出口结构相似性的指标,讨论了我国与主要国家之间的出口结构相似度演化情况。本文进一步实证检验了双边贸易结构相似度对双边经济关系的情况,发现结构趋同是国际贸易二元边际增长的重要因素。同时贸易结构趋同会推动双边经济水平的趋同,有利于后进国家赶超发展,也会推动两国建立区域自由贸易协定。贸易结构对相关双边经济活动的影响在不同的实证方法和检验中都体现出了统计和经济上的显著性,同时这一因素在控制相关固定效应的情况下仍是显著的影响,因此后续的分析双边经济社会关系的研究中应该考虑双边贸易的结构性因素。     

贸易引力模型研究新进展及其在中国的应用

贸易引力模型作为分析双边贸易量的工具已在国际贸易中得到广泛应用。本文首先介绍了贸易引力模型的内涵和形式,然后把贸易引力模型的实证研究新进展分为调整解释变量和解释边境效应两个阶段进行了梳理,从基于贸易理论基础和不基于贸易理论基础两个角度对贸易引力模型理论基础推导新进展进行了分析,对贸易引力模型在中国对外贸易中的应用进行了介绍。最后进行了评述和展望,并指出中国贸易引力模型的研究方向。     

Assessing Trade Potential in Agricultural Sector of Iran: Application of Gravity Model

This article attempts to assess Iran's trade potential, explore over- and under-trade countries and determine factors affecting export development by using the gravity model. Seventy countries, which are considered the major markets for Iran agricultural products, are divided into 50 developing and 20 developed ones. By using panel data during the period when the export premium was submitted (2002–2005), Iran's agricultural exports were predicted. For this purpose, equations for each group of countries regressed by applying the augmented gravity model. Finally, the results were compared with actual figures. The results showed that Iran was more over-traded with developing countries relative to developed ones. This analysis helps us to determine the proper commercial direction, assess trade potential capacity and explore effective factors on export development such as export premium. Therefore, trade flows can be improved with under-trade countries and will be supported with over-trade ones through proper policies.     

The Gravity Model and Trade Efficiency: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Eastern European Countries' Potential Trade

The opening up process of the eastern European countries is characterised by an increasing degree of trade integration with their Western neighbouring countries. Typically, the degree of East–West trade integration is assessed by comparing actual trade volumes with potential trade volumes projected from the gravity model parameters estimated for a group of countries that best represent normal trade relations. This approach, however, does not compare trade levels against a maximum level of trade feasible for the group of eastern European countries. This paper using a stochastic frontier specification of the gravity model is able to identify the efficiency of trade integration relative to maximum potential levels. The findings, based on a panel data set of bilateral exports from 17 Western European countries to the 10 new member states over the 1994–2007 period, indicate a high degree of East–West trade integration close to two‐thirds of frontier estimates, suggesting a low degree of trade resistances.     

The Gravity Model Analysis of Bangladesh's Trade: A Panel Data Approach

The article applies generalized gravity models to analyze Bangladesh's bilateral trade pattern using the panel data estimation technique. The results reveal that Bangladesh's trade is positively determined by the size of the economies, per capita gross domestic product differential and openness of the trading countries. Bangladesh's exports are positively determined by its income, partner countries' total import demand and openness, but negatively determined by partner countries' income and domestic inflation. Bangladesh's imports are positively determined by income of trading countries and degree of openness of the partner countries and negatively determined by partner countries' inflation. Transportation costs affect Bangladesh's trade negatively.     

中国—非洲农产品贸易的决定因素与潜力——基于引力模型的实证研究

中国与非洲农业在资源、市场和技术方面具有很强的互补性,经过50年的发展,中非农业合作取得了很大的成绩,双方农产品贸易发展迅速,而且具有很大的潜力。文章系统分析了影响中非农产品贸易的主要因素,运用引力模型验证了距离、人口、经济规模以及政策等因素对双边农产品贸易的不同影响,指出中国与非洲农产品贸易符合林德定理,双方需求与产品越相似,则潜在的贸易量越大,并基于引力模型估计了双方农产品贸易的潜力和合作重点。     

中国服务贸易潜力——基于引力模型的测算

国外使用引力模型研究服务贸易始于2002年,国内研究则起步稍晚,至2009年方有学者致力于此类研究。从使用数据和实证模型两方面看,现有研究都有可进一步拓展的潜力。本文基于引力模型对服务贸易的决定因素进行识别与测算。本文在实证部分采用了基本引力模型,使用4种计量方法。结果显示:贸易双方经济规模、经济发展水平、物理距离和自由贸易区对总服务贸易额和分部门贸易额的影响表现出不同的显著性。     

Climate Change and Trade Opportunity in Climate Smart Goods in Asia: Application of Gravity Model

This article highlights the export potential trade gap in climate smart goods (CSG) in Asia in 2008. Using the trade gravity equation, this article estimates trade value and measures potential trade gap. This potential trade gap suggests that there is a scope to increase the export of CSG. This study identifies individual trade partners and focuses on the trade opportunity in CSG in Asia.