Investor Sentiment and Return Predictability in Agricultural Futures Markets

This study examines the usefulness of trader‐position‐based sentiment index for forecasting future prices in six major agricultural futures markets. It has been found that large speculator sentiment forecasts price continuations. In contrast, large hedger sentiment predicts price reversals. Small trader sentiment hardly forecasts future market movements. An investigation was performed into various sentiment‐based timing strategies, and it was found that the combination of extreme large trader sentiments provides the strongest timing signal. These results are generally consistent with the hedging‐pressure theory, suggesting that hedgers pay risk premiums to transfer nonmarketable risks in futures markets. Moreover, it does not appear that large speculators in the futures markets possess any superior forecasting ability. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:929–952, 2001     

Return Dynamics when Persistence is Unobservable

This paper proposes a new theory of the sources of time-varying second (and higher) moments in financial time series. The key idea is that fully rational agents must infer the stochastic degree of persistence of fundamental shocks. Endogenous changes in their uncertainty determine the evolution of conditional moments of returns. The model accounts for the principal observed features of volatility dynamics and implies some new ones. Most strikingly, it implies a relationship between ex post trends, or momentum, and changes in volatility.     

Nonfinancial Goals,Governance, and Dividend Payout in Private Family Firms

This paper uses insights from behavioral economics to explain dividend policy in private family firms. Based on a sample of 501 Belgian firms, our results indicate that dividend payout is low when a family chief executive officer (CEO) leads the business and in the presence of a family‐dominated board. The tendency of a family CEO or family‐dominated board to retain earnings appears to be stronger in earlier generational stages compared with later generational stages. The findings are consistent with (1) socioemotional objectives being important drivers of funding decisions in private firms where families possess important decision and control power and (2) these objectives being more predominant in early generational stages.     

消费性支出的预测及量化分析

消费性支出的预测无疑对宏观调控、微观经济发展都将具有重大的指导意义。现在利用灰色模型和线性回归模型,以西安市为例。对西安市居民消费性支出情况进行建模预测、量化分析。实际结果证明预测是成功的。为探索、启动新一轮消费提供决策依据,以便形成消费对经济增长的强力拉动。     

Approximation of Optimal Reinsurance and Dividend Payout Policies

We consider the stochastic process of the liquid assets of an insurance company assuming that the management can control this process in two ways: first, the risk exposure can be reduced by affecting reinsurance, but this decreases the premium income; and second, a dividend has to be paid out to the shareholders. The aim is to maximize the expected discounted dividend payout until the time of bankruptcy. The classical approach is to model the liquid assets or risk reserve process of the company as a piecewise deterministic Markov process. However, within this setting the control problem is very hard. Recently several papers have modeled this problem as a controlled diffusion, presuming that the policy obtained is in some sense good for the piecewise deterministic problem as well. We will clarify this statement in our paper. More precisely, we will first show that the value function of the controlled diffusion provides an asymptotic upper bound for the value functions of the piecewise deterministic problems under diffusion scaling. Finally it will be shown that the upper bound is achieved in the limit under the optimal feedback control of the diffusion problem. This property is called asymptotic optimality .     

共同的用户共同的市场--访陕西汉德车桥有限公司总经理王占朝

记者:随着近几年国内重型车市场的不断升温,重型车桥的需求量也在不断增加,不少生产重型车桥的厂家都在扩大自己的生产能力,您是如何看待这种现象的?     

Controlling Risk Exposure and Dividends Payout Schemes:Insurance Company Example

The paper represents a model for financial valuation of a firm which has control of the dividend payment stream and its risk as well as potential profit by choosing different business activities among those available to it. This model extends the classical Miller–Modigliani theory of firm valuation to the situation of controllable business activities in a stochastic environment. We associate the value of the company with the expected present value of the net dividend distributions (under the optimal policy). The example we consider is a large corporation, such as an insurance company, whose liquid assets in the absence of control fluctuate as a Brownian motion with a constant positive drift and a constant diffusion coefficient. We interpret the diffusion coefficient as risk exposure, and drift is understood as potential profit. At each moment of time there is an option to reduce risk exposure while simultaneously reducing the potential profit—for example, by using proportional reinsurance with another carrier for an insurance company. Management of a company controls the dividends paid out to the shareholders, and the objective is to find a policy that maximizes the expected total discounted dividends paid out until the time of bankruptcy. Two cases are considered: one in which the rate of dividend payout is bounded by some positive constant M, and one in which there is no restriction on the rate of dividend payout. We use recently developed techniques of mathematical finance to obtain an easy understandable closed form solution. We show that there are two levels u₀ and u₁ with u₀≤u₁. As a function of currently available reserve, the risk exposure monotonically increases on (0,u₀) from 0 to the maximum possible. When the reserve exceeds u₁ the dividends are paid at the maximal rate in the first case and in the second case every excess above u₁ is distributed as dividend. We also show that for M small enough u₀=u₁ and the optimal risk exposure is always less than the maximal.     

金蜜蜂：共同愿景,共同行动

本次论坛以＂金蜜蜂：共同愿景,共同行动＂为主题,体现出中国企业社会责任已经进入到强化实践、注重合作、提升价值的新的发展阶段。以＂金蜜蜂＂为代表的中国企业,在追求可持续发展、共筑可持续未来的共同愿景的指导下,履行社会责任的意识不断提升、行动不断深化、跨界合作不断增加,示范作用不断显现,有力推动着中国和谐社会的建设。     

基金折价与基金未来收益波动性的动态关系研究

封闭式基金折价是近几年来国内金融界研究的热点问题。研究封闭式基金折价与基金未来收益之间的动态关系，并用GARCH(1，1)模型分析基金折价与基金未来收益波动性之间的关系。实证分析表明：基金折价变化与基金未来收益变化正相关；并且基金折价能够解释和减缓基金收益波动的持续性。     

土地成本、规模报酬与产业空间流动

在坚持新经济地理学基本观点的基础上,提出一些新的思想:生产要素成本与贸易自由度的提高会削弱本地市场效应的作用;消费品的替代弹性与工业品支出份额存在相互依赖的关系;虽然人们预期的变化对经济活动存在影响,但不足以逆转区域的内生均衡。随着贸易自由度的提高,企业有能力支付更高的生产要素成本,从而土地成本与产业集聚成正向变动的关系。需求环境与供给环境的改善对于促进中国区域经济统筹发展同等重要。     

Executive Compensation and Earnings Persistence

Governing boards utilize executive compensation contracts in an attempt to align executive actions with corporate goals. The objective is to ensure that executive performance provides value to the organization in terms of successful outcomes. A key performance criteria typically specified in CEO compensation contracts is earnings targets. However, using earnings as a performance evaluation may be problematic because some firms exhibit robust and sustained earnings over time (high earnings persistence), and other firms, such as high growth oriented firms, exhibit weak or sometimes negative earnings over time (low earnings persistence). Our study reveals that the effect of high earnings persistence results in firms that focus more heavily on cash compensation (salary and bonus) rather than on equity compensation (stock options, etc.) to compensate executive performance. Additionally, for firms characterized by low earnings persistence, our study indicates that cash flows from operations act as a supplementary performance measure to accounting earnings, and become increasingly important as a means to justify executive cash compensation.     

农业新阶段前后中国农民家庭消费支出的比较分析

1999年是中国农业发展新旧阶段的分水岭,本文选取1995-1999年和2002-2006年分别代表新阶段以前和新阶段以后,通过对新阶段前后我国农民家庭消费支出水平和结构分别进行聚类分析及比较,并在聚类结果的基础上对农民年平均消费支出及其7个主要支出指标分别进行了探讨,比较分析了同时期不同类别地区农民之间消费支出及同类别地区不同时期之间农民消费支出的变化趋势。     

普京经济学的坚守与调整

由于国际金融危机的严重冲击、石油价格大幅下迭和美欧等西方国家一轮紧似一轮的经济制裁,俄罗斯经济在2010年以后不断下滑,2014-2016年陷于低谷。在这种形势下普京经济学不改初衷,仍然坚持已确定的发展方向和发展目标,一方面采取各种有效措施应对经济难题,一方面进行战略微调,即在努力维持和加强与欧盟国家经贸关系的同时,把对外经贸合作的重心开始转向东方、转向亚太、转向中国并取得了显著成效,再次显示出普京经济学的生命力与灵活性。     

中国房地产公司股权收益与资本回报率、债务利率关系

本文结合中国房地产公司的动态资本结构特征,建立房地产公司动态资本结构模型,利用该模型进行了数据仿真实验,研究中国房地产公司资本结构对股权收益的影响情况。研究发现股权收益率随着资本回报率标准差增长,呈现出骤降后平稳上升一定水平的规律,并且资产负债率档位越高,收益率水平越不稳定;而当资产负债率处于较低水平时,债务利率水平的差异并不会对股权收益率造成较为明显的区别,而随着资产负债率水平的提高,股权收益率开始随着债务利率水平的差异而产生不同,在盈利能力相等时,股权收益率均随债务成本的增大而降低。     

余志明:颠覆与执着访谈嘉宾:轩达资讯集团董事局主席余志明

大幅圆形玻璃带来的敞亮空间内,白色为主色调的环境,张扬着无限的延伸感;间或橘色LOGO点缀及模块的渲染,为空间定义了动感和特质——位于光华路SOHO的轩达资讯集团北京办事处内,处处透着精心布局与舒适.很难想象,这是一家和印刷业务密切相关的企业. 背靠明窗而坐的余志明,身着浅色衬衣,双手自然地合放于桌上,袖口的装饰物并不华丽,透着一份恰到好处的讲究与品位.为表意清楚,略带香港口音的他说话时特别放慢语速,即便是思考,也面露着微笑.     

Risk,Return and Performance of Latin America's Equity Markets, 1975-1995

Abstract

This paper examines the investment performance of Latin American equity markets from 1975 through mid-1995. Latin American equity markets have been among the most volatile in the world over the past twenty years. However, their low correlation with other markets has provided diversification benefits. These markets have low liquidity and are concentrated in a few securities. The currencies of Latin American markets have depreciated dramatically against the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, the investment performance of these markets has been impressive: Their compound returns in U.S. dollar terms have exceeded those of the U.S. and of emerging markets in other regions of the globe.

Este trabajo examina el desempeño de los mercados accionarios latinoamericanos desde diciembre de 1975 hasta junio de 1995. Estos mercados han tenido una de las volatilidades mas altas del mundo durante los veinte años examinados, sin emhargo sus bajas correlaciones con otros mercados han resultado en beneficios de diversificatión. En cada mercado el valor de la unidad monetaria local ha caido dramáticamente con respecto al dólar de Estados Unidos y también han existido problemas de liquidez. A pesar de ésto, el desempeño de los mercados accionarios en la región ha sido impresionante y sus rendimientos compuestos han superado los de los mercados de Estados Unidos y otras economías emergentes.

Esse trabalho examina o desempenho do investimento no mercado de aç[otilde]es da America Latina entre 1975 até os meados de 1995. Os mercados de aç[otilde]es latino-americanos encontram se entre os mais voláteis do mundo nos últimos 20 anos. Entretanto, a sua baixa correlação com outros mercados apresentou beneficios para a diversificação. Esses mercados apresentam baixa liquidez e são concentrados em umas poucas aç[otilde]es. As moedas dos mercados Latinoamericanos depreciaram dramaticamente contra o dólar americano. Entretanto, o desempenho de investimentos nesses mercados tem sido impressionantes: o retorno composto em dólares americanos excederam os dos Estados Unidos e os dos mercados emergentes em outras partes do mundo.     

SMEs, Social Capital and the Common Good

In this paper we report on empirical research which investigates social capital of Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs). Bringing an international perspective to the work, we make a comparison between 30 firms located in West London and Munich in the sectors of food manufacturing/production, marketing services and garages. Here we present 6 case studies, which we use to illustrate the early findings from this pilot project. We identify differences in approach to associational membership in Germany and the U.K., with a greater propensity to "belong" to an official group in Germany. We distinguish clear sectoral similarities across the countries, and indications that certain personality types will seek out engagement and find time beyond busy work life schedules, often merging work/home/leisure life and friends. Some of our cases illustrate that formal institutions, networks and mutual relationships can develop social capital for the SME, although we should take care not to assume a universal win-win situation for those who are engaged and contribute to the common good. Some of the obstacles to co-operation and civic engagement are outlined.