Fama–French in China: Size and Value Factors in Chinese Stock Returns

We investigate the size and value factors in the cross‐section of returns for the Chinese stock market. We find a significant size effect but no robust value effect. A zero‐cost small‐minus‐big (SMB) portfolio earns an average premium of 0.61% per month, which is statistically significant with a t‐value of 2.89 and economically important. In contrast, neither the market portfolio nor the zero‐cost high‐minus‐low (HML) portfolio has average premiums that are statistically different from zero. In both time‐series regressions and Fama–MacBeth cross‐sectional tests, SMB represents the strongest factor in explaining the cross‐section of Chinese stock returns. Our results contradict several existing studies which document a value effect. We show that this difference comes from the extreme values in a few months in the early years of the market with a small number of stocks and high volatility. Their impact becomes insignificant with a longer sample and proper volatility adjustment.     

Does the Fama and French Five‐Factor Model Work Well in Japan?

In this study, we investigate whether the five‐factor model by Fama and French (2015) explains well the pricing structure of stocks with long‐run data for Japan. We conduct standard cross‐section asset pricing tests and examine the additional explanatory power of the new Fama and French factors; robust‐minus‐weak profitability factor and conservative‐minus‐aggressive investment factor. We find that robust‐minus‐weak and the conservative‐minus‐aggressive factors are not statistically significant when we conduct generalized method of moments (GMM) tests with the Hansen–Jagannathan distance measure. Thus, we conclude that the original version of the Fama and French five‐factor model is not the best benchmark pricing model for Japanese data during our sampling period from the year 1978 to the year 2014.     

Show me the money: Option moneyness concentration and future stock returns

Informed traders often use options that are not in-the-money due to higher potential gains for a smaller upfront cost. Thus, trading activity by option moneyness should be a gauge of informed option trading. We construct a dollar volume-weighted average moneyness measure to capture option trading activity at different moneyness levels. Stock returns increase with this measure, suggesting more trading activity in options with higher leverage predicts future stock returns. Our results hold cross-sectionally and at the portfolio level yielding a Fama–French five-factor α of 12% per year for all stocks and 33% per year for high implied volatility stocks.     

Hedging long‐term commodity risk

This study focuses on the problem of hedging longer‐term commodity positions, which often arises when the maturity of actively traded futures contracts on this commodity is limited to a few months. In this case, using a rollover strategy results in a high residual risk, which is related to the uncertain futures basis. We use a one‐factor term structure model of futures convenience yields in order to construct a hedging strategy that minimizes both spot‐price risk and rollover risk by using futures of two different maturities. The model is tested using three commodity futures: crude oil, orange juice, and lumber. In the out‐of‐sample test, the residual variance of the 24‐month combined spot‐futures positions is reduced by, respectively, 77%, 47%, and 84% compared to the variance of a naïve hedging portfolio. Even after accounting for the higher trading volume necessary to maintain a two‐contract hedge portfolio, this risk reduction outweighs the extra trading costs for the investor with an average risk aversion. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:109–133, 2003     

Asymmetric Correlations in Predicting Portfolio Returns*

Rigorous statistical tests have been designed to detect the existence of asymmetric correlations. However, these tests can hardly further facilitate future investment or risk management because asymmetric correlations are time‐varying and difficult to predict. In this paper, we construct a unified state‐space model, which not only measures in‐sample asymmetric correlations, but also exploit out‐of‐sample asymmetric correlations in the context of predicting portfolio returns. First, we regard time‐varying correlation between market returns and portfolio returns as a state variable and model it as an AR(1) process. Then, we measure future asymmetric correlations based on correlation coefficients between two unpredictable components in market returns and correlation, respectively. Third, we clarify the intuition, calculate asymmetric correlations for two portfolio sets and estimate the economic value of applying our model in asset allocation. Finally, we try to search for potential variables that can explain future asymmetric correlations. The results show that market‐wide liquidity, variance, earning price ratio, and investor sentiment can partially explain the asymmetry correlation phenomenon.     

A Better Model? An Empirical Investigation of the Fama–French Five‐factor Model in Australia

Recently, Fama and French ( 2015a ) propose a five‐factor model by adding profitability and investment factors to their three‐factor model. This model outperforms the three‐factor model previously proposed by Fama and French ( 1993 ). Using an extensive sample over the 1982–2013 period, we investigate the performance of the five‐factor model in pricing Australian equities. We find that the five‐factor model is able to explain more asset pricing anomalies than a range of competing asset pricing models, which supports the superiority of the five‐factor model. We also find that despite the results documented by Fama and French ( 2015a ), the book‐to‐market factor retains its explanatory power in the presence of the investment and profitability factors. Our results are robust to alternative factor definitions and the formation of test assets. The study provides a strong out‐of‐sample test of the model, adding to the comparative evidence across international equity markets.     

Trading co‐integrated assets with price impact

Executing a basket of co‐integrated assets is an important task facing investors. Here, we show how to do this accounting for the informational advantage gained from assets within and outside the basket, as well as for the permanent price impact of market orders (MOs) from all market participants, and the temporary impact that the agent's MOs have on prices. The execution problem is posed as an optimal stochastic control problem and we demonstrate that, under some mild conditions, the value function admits a closed‐form solution, and prove a verification theorem. Furthermore, we use data of five stocks traded in the Nasdaq exchange to estimate the model parameters and use simulations to illustrate the performance of the strategy. As an example, the agent liquidates a portfolio consisting of shares in Intel Corporation and Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF. We show that including the information provided by three additional assets (FARO Technologies, NetApp, Oracle Corporation) considerably improves the strategy's performance; for the portfolio we execute, it outperforms the multiasset version of Almgren–Chriss by approximately 4–4.5 basis points.     

Option implied cost of equity and its properties

The estimation of the cost of equity capital (COE) is one of the most important tasks in financial management. Existing approaches compute the COE using historical data, i.e. they are backward‐looking methods. This study derives a method to calculate forward‐looking estimates of the COE using the current market prices of stocks and stock options. Our estimates of the COE reflect the expectation of the market investors about the COE during the life of the investment project. We test empirically our method and compare it with the Fama/French (1993) three‐factor model for the S&P 100 firms. The empirical results indicate that our COE estimates (1) are plausible and stable over the years as required by appropriate discount rates for capital budgeting, (2) yield an equity risk premium close to the market equity risk premium reported by Fama E. F. and French K. R. (2002), (3) generate strong return‐risk relationships, and (4) are significantly related with investor sentiment. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29: 599–629, 2009     

Foreign Ownership Restriction and Momentum – Evidence from Emerging Markets

This study investigates the impact of foreign investors on stock price efficiency and return predictability in emerging markets. It finds that stocks fully investible for foreign investors exhibit stronger price momentum than non‐investible stocks. The difference in momentum effects between stocks with different levels of investibility cannot be fully explained by world market risk, size, turnover, or country‐specific factors. Further tests show that fully investible stocks have no post‐earnings‐announcement drift (PEAD), and their short‐term momentum reverses over a longer horizon. These results show that the stronger momentum of highly investible stocks does not appear to be driven by foreign investors' underreaction to firm‐specific information, but is more likely to be generated by their positive feedback trading.     

The impact of venture capital on the productivity growth of European entrepreneurial firms: ‘Screening’ or ‘value added’ effect?

We aim to ascertain to what extent the better performance of European venture capital (VC)‐backed firms in high-tech industries is due to either ‘screening’ or ‘value added’ provided by VC investors. We compare portfolio firms' productivity growth before and after the first VC round, using a matched control group as benchmark. We show that productivity growth is not significantly different between VC and non-VC-backed firms before the first round of VC financing, whereas significant differences are found in the first years after the investment event. We also find that the value-adding services provided by VC investors ‘imprint’ the portfolio firm.     

Monday Effect in the RMW and the Short‐Term Reversal Factors

We document that the positive (opposite) Monday or early‐in‐the‐week effect in Fama–French's robust‐minus‐weak (RMW) factor, first reported by Ülkü (2017), is pervasive across international markets, ruling out data‐snooping. As in the United States, the pattern has strengthened over time. Monday effect in RMW is linked to a combination of institutional investor trading pattern and the weekend sound‐mind effect. We devise a test of the external validity of the weekend sound‐mind effect hypothesis: the short‐term reversal factor, which is profitable within its holding period but leads to larger losses subsequently, exhibits a significant negative Monday effect, as predicted by this hypothesis. Mondays buck fads.     

Strategic Portfolio Management Model

Abstract

Institutional investors look forward to extra-ordinary returns in the new millennium. Yet, many have not displayed knowledge of scientific models such as modern portfolio theory, capital asset pricing model, and other financial assets investment management approaches, particularly within the local setting. They indiscriminately take risk by investing in subjectively determined options. We surveyed 44 quoted and unquoted companies, typical of emerging economies using Nigeria as a case. The test of hypotheses reveals that the firms' basis of portfolio selection is traditional. Investment risk is taken for granted. Also the homogeneity of portfolio components, though attractive in the short-run, adversely affect investment returns in the long-run. We, therefore, recommend the departmentalization and standardization of the corporate investment management process, reorientation and direction of organizational functionaries towards effective adoption of scientific approaches as integrally represented by the strategic portfolio management model, exemplified in this work.     

RISK‐AVERSION,OPTIMAL LEVERAGE AND THE INVESTMENT–UNCERTAINTY RELATION

We develop a partial equilibrium dynamic model in which firms are risk‐averse. We analyse the determinants of the investment–uncertainty relationship by means of numerical techniques. When firms can borrow ‘outside’ resources at the riskless rate, an increase in price volatility depresses investment for realistic parameter values. In our model, portfolio considerations play an important role. When the marginal revenue of capital becomes more uncertain, the risk‐averse firm's owners reduce their ‘short position’ in the risk‐free asset, thus diminishing the firm's debt level. The contraction in leverage reduces the expected returns on investment because the expected marginal revenue product is higher than the user cost of capital. In turn, the reduction in expected yields tends to depress investment.     

Buy Low and Sell High: The 52‐Week Price Range and Predictability of Returns

This paper uses the ratio of 52‐week high to low prices to construct a self‐financing portfolio strategy, which buys stocks with a low range ratio and sells stocks with a high range ratio according to the behavioral perspective. The results indicate that the profits from this range strategy are substantial and outperform those of 52‐week high and conventional momentum strategies. Moreover, the incremental effect of the range strategy on 52‐week high momentum is significantly positive, while the 52‐week high strategy diminishes this strategy's profitability. Overall, the range measure is better than conventional measures at predicting future returns.     

Virtue Remains After Removing Sin: Finding Skill Amongst Socially Responsible Investment Managers

We examine the investment skill of socially responsible investment (SRI) fund managers. Prior studies use the ‘alpha’ from standard asset pricing models as a proxy for management skill. However, implicit in the use of such models is that managers operate under no investment constraints. In the SRI context, this is patently false and can lead to biased alpha estimates and false conclusions about the existence of skill. We introduce a novel three-factor Fama–French asset-pricing model with the aim of estimating alpha more accurately and hence investment skill, without bias. This model excludes SRI-prohibited industries such as defense, alcohol, tobacco and gambling in the construction of the Fama–French market, value and size risk factors. We show that the exclusion of the SRI-prohibited industries leads to subtle and complex changes to the risk factors that drive SRI returns. When we re-estimate alpha using the new model we find, in contrast to the conventional Fama–French model, evidence of statistically and economically significant alpha. Furthermore, the risk loadings on the new risk factors are similar to those of the original Fama–French model suggesting that changes in risk loadings are not responsible for the finding of significant skill.     

Unspanned stochastic volatility in the multifactor CIR model

Empirical evidence suggests that fixed‐income markets exhibit unspanned stochastic volatility (USV), that is, that one cannot fully hedge volatility risk solely using a portfolio of bonds. While Collin‐Dufresne and Goldstein (2002, Journal of Finance, 57, 1685–1730) showed that no two‐factor Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) model can exhibit USV, it has been unknown to date whether CIR models with more than two factors can exhibit USV or not. We formally review USV and relate it to bond market incompleteness. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a multifactor CIR model to exhibit USV. We then construct a class of three‐factor CIR models that exhibit USV. This answers in the affirmative the above previously open question. We also show that multifactor CIR models with diagonal drift matrix cannot exhibit USV.     

金融衍生品的定价能力研究:以中国市场权证为例

文章应用线性多因子模型研究了我国权证的定价能力,发现权证是非冗余的,故对风险资产的收益率有解释能力,且对小公司和价值股的解释能力强于大公司和成长股.文章还利用随机贴现因子的思想,用GMM方法做了稳健性检验.两种方法从不同角度得到同样的结论,权证价格中包含定价因素,金融衍生品的发展能提高市场定价效率,使市场趋于完全.     

The cross-section of emerging market stock returns

Using monthly stock returns from 28 emerging market countries and a total sample period of 21 years, we investigate the predictive power of a broad set of factors. We document that the factor definitions of the Fama and French (2015) five-factor model are less robust compared to alternative factor definitions. In contrast, the anomalous returns associated with cash flow-to-price, gross profitability, composite equity issuance, and momentum are pervasive as they show up in equal- and value-weighted portfolio sorts as well as in cross-sectional regressions. In contrast to financial theory and in line with previous findings, we do not find a positive cross-sectional relationship between risk and return. Finally, return forecasts derived from the alternative factor definitions are superior in their out-of-sample predictive ability to the ones derived from the five-factor model.     

Noisy prices and the Fama–French five-factor asset pricing model in China

This paper provides an empirical evaluation of the five-factor model recently presented by Fama and French (2015a) that augments the traditional three-factor model with two new factors related to profitability and investment, taking into account the bias in mean returns induced by noise in prices. Using an extensive sample over the period 1997 to 2015, we find that the five-factor model consistently outperforms the three-factor model in the Chinese equity market. In contrast to the findings in Fama and French (2015a), both value and profitability factors are important, while the investment factor is found to be redundant for describing average returns in our sample. With respect to the double-sorted left-hand-side (LHS) portfolios, the main problem with the five-factor model is its failure to fully capture the high average returns of stocks whose returns perform like those of growth firms that invest conservatively due to low profitability. On the other hand, although we find mixed results in the three-dimensional sorting, the LHS portfolios with extremely low average returns are those that cause serious problems for the five-factor model.     

A robust model of the convenience yield in the natural gas market

This study advances the research on the convenience yield of natural gas. Econometric models confirm that air temperature is an important explanatory variable in addition to storage levels. Furthermore, an extended linear model shows that one has to account for a changing cost of physical storage in the spirit of Brennan ( 1958 ). Besides this, an alternative regime‐switching model for the convenience yield helps to put in perspective a prominent finding by Fama, and French ( 1987 ). That is, given binding capacity constraints for gas storage, the variance of the futures' basis will increase rather than decrease with the storage levels. Finally and most importantly, robustness tests demonstrate that the extended linear model produces the most viable forecasts and that these forecasts can help to amend the performance of reduced‐form models for the gas spot price. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark