Ageing in Europe

For many people all over Europe, there is an understanding and an expectation that in old age they will be taken care of by the state. High social security contributions throughout the three or four decades of a working life are rationalised by the prospect of a straightforward transition out of the labour force when the time comes. While this was a reasonable expectation in decades past, a number of factors have combined to cause people all across the continent to feel very anxious about what awaits them once it is time to exit the labour force into retirement. The well-documented demographic transition of many rich European countries is a big factor, as greying populations start to weigh on the sparser younger generations, leading to increasing dependency ratios that would cause any social security system to buckle. The Great Recession has not helped matters, and the austerity measures still crippling many vulnerable European nations will not make anyone in these countries feel optimistic about their post-working lives. The following papers look at different threads of the new reality of ageing in Europe, from pension reform and prolonging the working life to more qualitative aspects such as an analysis of the quality of life of the elderly across Europe. They serve to inform and advise on an important issue that will affect everyone in Europe at some point in their lives.     

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows,Economic Growth,and Trade Balances: The Experience of the New Members of the European Union

The study examines the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth and trade balances of 10 emerging economies in Europe before they joined the European Union. This article uses the Granger causality test to investigate the link between FDI inflows and economic growth for the countries under study. The findings show that gross domestic product growth has a unilateral Granger-cause on FDI inflows for 9 of 10 emerging European economies. However, the results did not show FDI inflows Granger-causing the changes in economic growth of any of the 10 countries. Furthermore, FDI inflows had no or negative effects on trade balances of the majority of the emerging European nations. The policy implications of this study are that host governments in emerging economies must carefully evaluate spillover effects of FDI inflows on their economies before offering significant incentive packages to lure multinational enterprises into their countries.     

多哈回合受挫后的农产品国际贸易发展前景研判

多哈回合针对农业的十个重大议题进行谈判,并且在有些问题上达成了很好的共识,但在市场准入、出口竞争、国内支持以及农产品特殊保障机制等问题上存在较大差异而未能最终达成协议。多哈回合谈判受挫后,农产品贸易领域中的贸易保护将进一步抬头。农产品贸易的特殊保障机制的运用及其约束在本国将更加简单,而对其他国家的运用则较为苛刻。发展中国家的农业贸易条件将会进一步趋向恶化。     

East european trade with the developing world: soviet diplomatic partner or economic self-interest

Prior to the demise of the Communist system in Eastern Europe, the trade of these countries with the developing world was supportive of Soviet diplomatic aims at least in part. In the late 1950s, correspondence between the trade links of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe was particularly close. In later periods, the trade of Eastern Europe was less closely aligned with that of the Soviet Union, but there was still evidence that East European trade with the developing world followed upon Soviet goals and initiatives in some instances, indicating the strong possibility of overall Soviet direction. Trade with countries in the Middle East had by far the strongest association for East European trade with that of the Soviet Union.     

Cross-border production sharing and exchange-rate sensitivity of Mexico's trade balance

Increasing patterns of international trade occur in the form of cross-border production sharing – the dispersion of separate blocks of an integrated production process across different nations. In the case of ‘standard’ or ‘ordinary’ trade, imports are destined for use in the importing country, and exports are largely produced within the country. However, with production sharing, imported parts and components are destined for inclusion in the country's exports. A depreciation of a nation's currency raises its exports. At the same time, imported components become more expensive, which partly offsets the expansionary effect of the depreciation on exports. Using a simple theoretical framework, this paper shows that production networks lower the sensitivity of a country's trade balance to changes in exchange rates. The empirical examination finds Mexico's Maquiladora trade balance to be unresponsive to changes in both, its real effective as well as its real peso-dollar rates, while that for non-Maquiladora category is significantly responsive, in confirmation with the theorized hypothesis.     

Agricultural Policies and Trade Paths in Turkey

In 1959, shortly after the European Economic Community was founded under the 1957 Treaty of Rome, Turkey applied for Associate Membership of the then six‐member common market. By 1963, a path for integrating the economies of Turkey and the eventual European Union had been mapped. As with many trade agreements, agriculture posed difficult political hurdles, which were never fully cleared, even as trade barriers to other sectors were eventually removed and a Customs Union formed. In this paper, we trace the influences the Turkey‐EU economic institutions have had on agricultural policies and the agricultural sector. Using an applied general equilibrium framework we provide estimates of what including agriculture under the Customs Union would mean for the sector and the economy. We also discuss the implications of fully aligning Turkey's agricultural policies with the EU's Common Agricultural Policy, as would be required under full membership.     

Coherence between development policy and agricultural policy

The practical shaping of the EU's common agricultural policy and the instruments used to pursue its goals are often in conflict with the development policy goal of a trade regime which offers developing countries open markets as a contribution, in the long term, to reducing the poverty gap between nations. What are the possible areas of conflict between agricultural policy and development policy? How can these policies be made more coherent?     

调整和完善我国农产品贸易保护措施的基本思路和对策建议

目前,我国主要采取了边境保护措施和国内支持措施对我国的农产品贸易进行保护。在WTO框架下,适度保护下的自由贸易战略是我国农产品贸易保护的新措施,因此,应调整和优化农产品边境保护措施;充分利用WTO农业相关规则;将成熟的农产品贸易保护政策和措施法律化。     

The Cuban market:: Opportunities and barriers

To open our feature on business in Cuba, Kaplowitz presents a brief overview of the dramatic changes in the Cuban market since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989. Until 1988, 85% of Cuban two-way trade was with the former Soviet Union, but by 1993 the COMECON nations accounted for only 20% of Cuban trade. The resulting chaos has created openings for Latin American, European and Canadian businesses to fill the investment void in Cuba. Kaplowitz lays out how recent developments have affected Cuban laws on foreign investment and trade, reviews which foreign companies are barkening to Cuba's call, and what the opportunities might be for U.S. businesses should relations between the two countries improve over the long-term. Her article is the first of seven articles in this feature.     

主要发达国家农产品技术性贸易壁垒的比较及对我国的启示

加入WTO以来我国农产品出口贸易增长很快,但由于种种原因,在国际市场上屡受阻挠,尤其是以欧美日为代表的发达国家凭借自身优势所实施的技术性贸易壁垒,对我国农产品出口带来了极大的影响。通过对欧美日等发达国家的技术性贸易壁垒比较分析,探寻我国能够借鉴的经验。     

Failure of the WTO Ministerial Conference at Cancun: Reasons and Remedies

This paper first discusses four general developments in the world trading system that have made it increasingly difficult in recent years for nations to reach multilateral agreements aimed at further liberalising international trade, namely: (1) the increased technical complexity and disruptive domestic economic effects of the issues being negotiated; (2) the shift in relative bargaining power among the negotiating participants in favour of the developing countries; (3) the proliferation of bilateral and regional free trade agreements in contrast to multilateral agreements, and (4) the increased emphasis on achieving ‘fairness’ rather than reciprocity in trade liberalisation. Differences in negotiating positions of the participants on the major specific negotiating subjects of the Doha Round, such as new rules covering investment, competition policy, government procurement policy, and trade facilitation, agricultural liberalisation, changes in anti‐dumping and countervailing duty rules, the tariff‐cutting rule to increase access to non‐agricultural markets, and further liberalisation in the services sector, are then considered as well as the likelihood of reaching compromises on these matters. Finally, the possibilities of reaching acceptable balances of concessions and gains are considered for such key participants as the Group of 20 developing countries, the European Union, the United States and other industrial countries.     

欧债危机对我国对欧出口贸易的影响与因应措施

欧盟是中国最大的贸易伙伴。随着欧债危机逐渐从欧元区外围国家向核心国家蔓延,欧债危机引起的整个欧洲经济增长乏力、欧元贬值等问题势必会使中国对欧出口贸易受到影响。随着欧债危机的深化,相关成员国势必实施严格的紧缩政策,从而将使中国对欧出口遭遇更严峻的形势。鉴于欧元区在中国外贸出口中的重要地位,我们必须尽早设定应对措施,以期减缓欧债危机可能对我国经济造成的冲击。     

Efficiency,equity, and environmental implications of trade liberalization: A computable general equilibrium analysis

This paper evaluates the effect of trade liberalization on global efficiency, equity, and the environment using global welfare, welfare redistribution, and carbon emission as indicators. A static, computable general equilibrium trade model with explicit representation of agricultural production and energy use is used to simulate a series of new scenarios in which 1997 baseline import tax and export subsidy trade barrier equivalents are scaled back. Findings indicate that with trade liberalization agricultural output declines, energy use increases, and carbon emissions rise. Global welfare rises revealing an overall increase in efficiency; however, gains to poorer nations come at the expense of richer nations. An increase in the use of polluting inputs such as coal in developing countries suggests poorer nations will risk environmental degradation with the lowering of trade barriers.     

International trade policies,industrialization, and economic development

During the 1950s and 1960s, most developing nations, particularly the larger ones, strongly opted for a policy of import substitution industrialization (ISI). This was based on heavy protection and generally led to very inefficient industries. Since the early 1970s, an increasing number of developing countries deregulated their economies and liberalized trade, and this stimulated efficiency and growth. Some developing nations also tried strategic trade policies and to endogenize growth (as postulated by endogenous growth theory), but with only limited success. It seems impossible and inconsistent under the new international trade rules, however, for other developing countries to duplicate the East Asia “miracle,” which was based on strong government support for domestic industry while stimulating competition and efficiency among domestic firms. The successful completion of the Uruguay Round is expected to greatly benefit developing countries through continued deregulation and increased access to developed-country markets.     

CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPEAN TRADE ORIENTATION AND FDI FLOWS: PREPARATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP

At the June 1997 Amsterdam Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) the heads of state of the 15 European Union (EU) nations decided to expand to the East. At the Luxembourg IGC in December 1997, they invited the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, and Solvenia from Central and East Europe (CEE) and Cyprus from the Mediterranean region to begin admission talks in early 1998. Efficient involvement in international trade and the division of labor through foreign direct investment (FDI) are two of the most important prerequisites to economic transformation, modernization, and sustained economic growth. Thus, trade reorientation by the CEE nations from the former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) region to the OECD region in general and the EU in particu lar, as well as the volume and nature of inbound FDI are among the most reliable indicators of these countries' abilities to meet the EU admission standards. Trade reorientation by the CEE nations and FDI inflows between 1990 1995 have established a sound basis for effective economic transformation and modernization. It has also increased the ability of selected industries to compete in the EU Single Market. By 1997 the CEE nations were in a good position to generate sustained economic growth and to gradually meet the EU admission requirements.     

中国与欧盟农产品产业内贸易实证分析

基于产业内贸易理论,采用格鲁贝尔—洛伊德指数、布吕哈特边际产业内贸易指数、汤姆&麦克杜威尔水平和垂直产业内贸易指数,本文综合评估了1996年以来中国与欧盟15国农产品产业内贸易水平及结构特征。实证分析结果显示:中国与欧盟整体农产品产业内贸易水平较高,且以技术差异为特征的垂直型产业内贸易为主;双方四大类农产品产业内贸易水平呈上升趋势。     

Economic Diplomacy and International Trade: ASEAN’s Quest to Value‐Claim

Utilising economic diplomacy theory, this study specifies a statistical model to reveal ASEAN members’ capacity to negotiate better international trade outcomes. Examining imports into ASEAN members from 134 nations between 1980 and 2001, we find that ASEAN’s diplomats were able to pursue more ‘value‐claiming’ in economic diplomacy than expected. While our results support the commonly accepted view in economic diplomacy that smaller nations are pressured to accept trade outcomes desired by larger nations, we also find support for a new perspective: smaller nations obtain more favourable trade outcomes, as members of a regional trade bloc, which cannot be achieved as individual nations. We find that ASEAN’s conversion to a fully fledged regional trade agreement in 1992 significantly enhanced this capacity. This study adds a different perspective to the substantial literature examining cases in trade and economic diplomacy.     

Agriculture in Eastern European countries: Light at the end of the tunnel?

Following recent events in East European countries the question has arisen as to what effect the possible changes in the agricultural policies of these countries might have on agricultural production and trade. Our author addresses this question paying special regard to the consequences for EC agriculture and the present GATT Round.     

Agriculture in Europe: New challenges ahead

The recent reform of the EC’s Common Agricultural Policy is likely to be only the beginning of the adjustments which will be necessary in the near future. Accession applications by various EFTA countries are pending. At the same time Eastern Europe desperately needs assistance from Western Europe, not only in the form of food aid but also in the form of help in establishing agricultural production and trade based on the laws of the market. The following article takes stock of the situation.     

浅议国际贸易学科研究领域与方向的拓展

我国对外经济与贸易涉入的领域日益扩大,但国务院学位办和教育部研究生办及很多学校界定的国际贸易学科的研究和学习范围比较狭窄,主要局限于外贸及其与之有关的理论与政策,而对与外贸有直接关系且地位日渐重要的生产要素跨国流动等领域重视不够或不认为是其研究范围,学科名与专业名容易混淆,社会、学生、同行都有误解,影响对人才的培养与就业领域的拓宽,故有必要拓展它的研究领域和方向,将学科名与专业名互换或都定为国际经济与贸易.