The Euro Area Periphery Debt Conundrum

Intereconomics - There are many reasons to reform the Stability and Growth Pact, but that reform is no panacea. This is because the euro area periphery has increasingly entered a debt conundrum.     

The adjustment mechanism in the Euro Area

This paper analyses the adjustment mechanism in the euro area prior to the crisis. Results show that the real exchange rate adjusted to redress cyclical divergences and that after monetary unification, real exchange rate dynamics became less reactive to country-specific shocks but also less persistent. Regulations affecting price and wage nominal flexibility and employment protection play a role in the adjustment mechanism. Indicators of product and labour regulations appear to matter for both the reaction of price competitiveness to cyclical divergences and for the inertia of competitiveness indicators.     

Reflections on the Euro Area Fiscal Stance

Avoiding the mistakes of the past, when the good times were not used to build buffers, will be crucial to avoid countries again being forced to engage in a pro-cyclical fiscal tightening in the next downturn.     

Determinants of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area

Euro area inflation has been rising strongly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, giving rise to concerns that there could be second-round effects, with higher inflation leading to higher inflation expectations, which in turn lead to higher inflation. This could result in more persistent rises in inflation.

     

Problems of measuring money supply in the Euro Area

With just a few weeks left to go before responsibility for monetary policy is transferred from the EMU member countries to the European Central Bank, there is still no standardised concept for measuring a euro area money supply which could serve as a statistical basis for a money-supply oriented monetary policy strategy. Which problems remain to be solved?     

The Prospects for Future Economic Growth in the Euro Area

With a long-term projection of TFP growth of 0.2 per cent, a gradual decline in the work-age population and a static average workweek, we project a "baseline" average real GDP growth rate in the euro area of just 0.6 per cent over the next decade — even if the unemployment rate and investment share of GDP return to their pre-crisis levels by 2020.     

Preparations for the Euro by U.K. SMEs with Trading Links with the Euro Currency Area

This paper examines euro preparations by U.K. SMEs with trading links with the euro currency area. It suggests, notwithstanding the U.K.'s decision not to join the euro in the first wave, that SMEs with euro area trade links are particularly likely to have had to make some adjustments for the introduction of the euro. The paper assesses this level of preparation and seeks to understand if it is contingent upon the characteristics of the business, its geographic location, its business orientation and the type of trade link (e.g. importer/exporter). The paper finds, contrary to previous research, that business characteristics, geographic location and business orientation are, on the whole, of limited value in explaining euro preparation. What, instead, seems more significant is the type of link with the euro area: importers, exporters and those with subsidiary businesses in the euro area appear more likely to have made preparations for the euro than U.K. SMEs that are part of a euro supply-chain or are a subsidiary of a euro area business.     

Low Interest Rates and Household Portfolio Behaviour in Euro Area Countries

This paper examines whether household portfolio structures change in favour of riskier assets when interest rates fall. Using euro area financial accounts data from the financial crisis through the present day, it is shown that the current low interest rate environment has not, up to this point, induced euro area households to add further risky assets to their investment portfolios.     

Inflation Developments in the Euro Area Since the Onset of the Pandemic

There is hope that the Russian war on Ukraine could expedite the energy transition in Europe leading to a new and more environmentally sustainable steady state.

     

Multinationals and structural changes

The effects of the activities of multinational corporations on the economy of the Federal Republic of Germany have hardly ever been examined empirically. The role of the multinational corporations (MNCs) in the process of structural change had not been studied either until an enquiry was recently undertaken for the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs¹. The following article is based on the expert report which deals with this and other aspects for the first time and is to be published shortly.     

Gross Fixed Capital Formation in the Euro Area During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Intereconomics - This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on gross fixed capital formation across the euro area. The empirical analysis suggests that the intensity of the lockdown...     

Supply or Demand,that is the Question: Decomposing Euro Area Inflation

Intereconomics - This paper studies the recent trends in inflation in the euro area and estimates to what extent the current inflationary pressures are driven by demand expansion and by supply side...     

External Asymmetries in the Euro Area and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment

Soon after the introduction of the common currency, a divide emerged between two groups in the Euro area: one comprised of the North European countries achieving external surpluses and the other of the South European countries with large external deficits. This paper shows that different patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows across the Euro area countries contributed to this divergence. Our theoretical framework shows that if the economy is relatively capital‐intensive in the production of traded (non‐traded) output, FDI will be channelled in greater proportions to the traded (non‐traded) sector, thus improving (deteriorating) the trade balance. Focusing on ten Euro area countries over the period 1980 to 2009, we establish a positive (negative) long‐run effect of FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South). In the North, the positive effect stems from the traded sector FDI inflows that were significantly higher in comparison with the South, both before and after the EMU. In contrast, in the South, the increased FDI inflows in the post‐EMU era were dominated by investments in the non‐traded sector. When industry‐level data are employed, a positive (negative) long‐run effect of manufacturing (non‐manufacturing) FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South) is further established.     

欧元的光泽

当今世界,经济的全球化和区域化同时并存并且在飞速发展,以国内生产总值来衡量,世界经济已经形成北美、西欧和东亚三分天下的局面,地区之间的合作不断加强,彼此之间的联系日趋紧密,共同影响着世界经济的发展.欧盟经过40多年的一体化建设,其经济实力已可与美国相匹敌,贸易总量已超过美国,成为当今世界经济格局中强有力的一极,不仅增强了世界经济多极化的发展趋势,也有利于促进世界政治新格局的形成.     

我国吸引大型跨国公司的政策建议

随着经济全球化、贸易投资一体化和国际分工的进一步发展,大型跨国公司逐渐成为全球经济活动的主体。我国以融入大型跨国公司的生产经营体系为载体,不仅可以更快地融入到国际分工中去,提高我国在国际分工中的地位,而且与我国的外资政策、可持续发展政策也具有高度的内在一致性。因此,引入大型跨国公司的潜在效应巨大。但是大型跨国公司的进入有可能造成国内市场的垄断,因此必须对其进行适当的控制和引导。     

Multinationals and Income Shifting by Debt

Existing literature studies debt shifting and transfer pricing separately. In practice, however, the choice of debt-to-asset ratios in affiliates and the interest rate on internal debt are interrelated management decisions that are also mutually affected by government regulation. Therefore, this paper models these strategies as simultaneous decisions made by the management. We find that the tax sensitivity of the corporate tax base depends on whether debt shifting and transfer pricing are cost complements or substitutes. A second result is that stricter regulation of debt shifting and transfer pricing may have the effect of fostering such activities.     

Why Multinationals Help Reduce Poverty1

Over the years, multinationals have attracted both friends and enemies. Foes have argued that they exert adverse influences on the well‐being of poor countries in general, and their poorer citizens in particular. Friends have argued that in their wake, multinational corporations bestow on host economies a variety of benefits primarily, but not exclusively, via spillover effects of various sorts. This paper provides a detailed reappraisal of the issues involved and argues that if their adverse effects can be removed by appropriate domestic policies, multinationals can have a potentially major role to play in the alleviation of poverty.