Import Churning and Export Performance of Multi‐product Firms

This paper analyses the impact of churning in the imported varieties of capital and intermediate inputs on firm export scope and productivity. Using detailed data on imports and exports at the firm‐product‐market level, we document substantial churning in both imports and exports for Slovenian manufacturing firms in the period 1994–2008. On average, a firm changes about one‐quarter of imported and exported product‐markets every year, while gross churning in terms of added and dropped product‐markets is almost three times higher. A substantial share of this product churning is due to simultaneous imports and exports of firms in identical varieties within the same CN‐8 product code (so called pass‐on‐trade). We find that churning in imported varieties is far more important than reduction in tariffs or declines in import prices for firms’ productivity growth and increased export product scope. We also find gross churning has a bigger impact on firm productivity improvements by a factor of more than 10 in comparison with net churning. Both adding and dropping of imported input varieties thus seem to be of utmost importance for firms aiming to optimise their input mix towards their most valuable inputs. These effects are further enhanced when excluding simultaneous trade in identical varieties, suggesting that pass‐on‐trade has less favourable effects on firms’ long‐run performance than regular trade.     

Exporters and Importers of Services: Firm‐Level Evidence on Italy

This work contributes to the growing literature on international trade in services at firm level. Our data set provides information on exports and imports of services (excluding transportation and travel) in 2008–09 for almost 3,000 Italian industrial and services firms, divided by partner country and type of service. We report a set of stylised facts on services trade and analyse the choice between export and foreign direct investment in services at the firm level. We find that the export and import of services are highly concentrated in just a few firms. Firm‐level variation in trade is positively correlated with firm size and productivity. Country‐level variation is to a large extent explained by the standard gravity variables: distance strongly reduces trade in services in spite of their intangibility. Smaller and less productive firms choose to export rather than sell through foreign affiliates, although there is some heterogeneity among service types.     

On the Role of Imports in Enhancing Manufacturing Exports

Making use of a large panel data set on Italian manufacturing firms, we provide evidence on the effect of imports on the firm's export performance. We distinguish imports of intermediates according to their origin, and we find that inputs sourced from low labour cost countries promote the firm's export activity. Imports from high‐income countries do not significantly contribute to the export orientation of firms, especially when both persistence in export and the possible endogeneity of the import measures are accounted for via system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation of a linear probability model. Our evidence suggests that the impact of imports on the firms’ export activity works through the cost‐saving channel rather than the technology channel.     

Market knowledge: Evidence from importers

Previous firm‐level literature established that there are substantial costs of entry into new export markets. Chaney (The American Economic Review, 104, 2014, 3600) opens the black‐box of entry costs by building a dynamic network model of international trade where firms acquire customers in new destinations through their existing customers in other destinations. Following his conjecture, this paper examines whether firms use their existing suppliers in a destination to find their first clients in those markets. I use a disaggregated data set on Turkish firms' exports and imports for the 2003–08 period, and investigate the effect of import experience on export entry. By identifying import experience using instrumental variables, and shutting down productivity channels with firm‐year fixed effects, I find that having a supplier in the destination country raises the probability of starting to export to that country by 5.5 percentage points on average, revealing a “market knowledge” phenomenon. The paper's main contribution to the literature is finding that firms' country‐specific import experience increases the likelihood of export‐market entry. Digging further to explore heterogeneous effects, I find that this effect does not exist when trading with low‐income countries, but it increases with the destination country's size, proximity, language similarity and the size of its Turkish immigrant community. Moreover, the strength of the firm's relationship with its supplier as proxied by several variables such as the share of imported products that are differentiated increases the probability of export‐market entry.     

Firm strategies in expanding and diversifying exports

This paper provides novel empirical evidence on the patterns and dynamics of exports by Irish firms over the past two decades from a highly detailed data set of export records at the firm‐product‐destination level. We identify patterns of export concentration and specialisation and how these evolved over time. Firms’ strategies for export growth along product and destination markets mixes are then examined and the contributions of intensive (average sales) and extensive (number of products or markets) margins to overall exports and to export growth are calculated. We find that most exporting firms are quite small, selling a few products to a small number of destinations while export values are dominated by a relatively small group of highly globalised large firms selling many products to many destinations. Continuing exporters frequently introduce new products, drop products and enter and exit markets. Export growth in the case of Irish‐owned exporters appears largely driven by the extensive margin of product and destination changes. However, the opposite pattern holds for foreign‐owned firms with growth mainly coming from the intensive margin.     

Trade and Innovation in Services: Evidence from a Developing Economy

Studies on innovation and international trade have traditionally focused on manufacturing because neither was seen as important for services. Moreover, the few existing studies on services focus only on industrial countries, even though in many developing countries services are already the largest sector in the economy and an important determinant of overall productivity growth. Using a recent firm‐level innovation survey for Chile to compare the manufacturing and ‘tradable’ services sector, this paper reveals some novel patterns. First, even though services firms have on average a much lower propensity to export than manufacturing firms, services exports are less dominated by large firms and tend to be more skill intensive than manufacturing exports. Second, services firms appear to be as innovative as – and in some cases more innovative than – manufacturing firms, in terms of both inputs and outputs of ‘technological’ innovative activity, even though services innovations more often take a ‘non‐technological’ form. Third, services exporters (like manufacturing exporters) tend to be significantly more innovative than non‐exporters, with a wider gap for innovations close to the global technological frontier. These findings suggest that the growing faith in services as a source of both trade and innovative dynamism may not be misplaced.     

How Do Exporters React to Changes in Cost Competitiveness?

Various international institutions such as the European Commission, the ECB and the OECD often use unit labour costs as a measure of international competitiveness. The goal of this paper was to examine how well this measure is related to international export performance at the firm level. To this end, we use Belgian firm‐level data for the period 1999 to 2010 to analyse the impact of unit labour costs on exports. We find an estimated elasticity of the intensive margin of exports with respect to unit labour costs between −0.2 and −0.4. This elasticity varies between sectors and between firms, with more labour‐intensive firms having a higher elasticity. The microdata also enable us to analyse the impact of unit labour costs on the extensive margin. Our results show that higher unit labour costs reduce the probability of starting to export for non‐exporters and increase the probability of exporters stopping. While our results show that unit labour costs have an impact on the intensive margin and extensive margin of firm‐level exports, the effect is rather low, suggesting that pass‐through of costs into prices is limited. The latter is consistent with recent trade models emphasising that not only relative costs, but also demand factors such as quality and taste matter for explaining firm‐level exports.     

International trade in services: A portrait of importers and exporters

We provide a novel set of stylized facts on firms engaging in international trade in services, using unique data on firm-level exports and imports from the world's second largest services exporter, the United Kingdom (UK). We show that only a fraction of UK firms engage in international trade in services, that trade participation varies widely across industries and that service traders are different from non-traders in terms of size, productivity and other firm characteristics. We also provide detailed evidence on the trading patterns of service exporters and importers, such as the number of markets served, the value of exports and imports per market and the share of individual markets in overall sales. We interpret these facts in the light of existing theories of international trade in services and goods. Our results demonstrate that firm-level heterogeneity is a key feature of services trade. Also, we find many similarities between services and goods trade at the firm level and conclude that existing heterogeneous firm models for goods trade will be a good starting point for explaining trade in services as well.     

Export Promotion: Bundled Services Work Better

Export promotion agencies provide exporters with a broad range of services, going from counselling to sponsoring their participation in international trade missions and fairs. These services may have heterogeneous effects and thus contribute differently to achieve the goals of these organisations. Empirical evidence on their relative effectiveness is rather limited. This paper aims at filling this gap in the literature. We compare the impact of different public trade promotion programmes on the extensive and intensive margin of firms’ exports, both to each other and with respect to no participation in these activities, by applying multiple treatment matching difference‐in‐differences on highly disaggregated export data for the whole population of Colombian exporters over the period 2003–06. We find that use of programmes that combine different services is associated with better export performance than their basic individual components, primarily along the country‐extensive margin.     

Learning to export: Export growth and the destination decision of firms

I find evidence that the geographic expansion of firm exports occurs slowly over time and that a large share of export growth is due to incumbent exporters entering new destinations. New exporters enter large countries and destinations with characteristics similar to their domestic market. Less similar, distant or less developed countries are entered by firms already exporting to other destinations. I formulate a dynamic general equilibrium model to test if these patterns are due to firms learning how to export (as other recent empirical findings have suggested) or other factors considered in the literature. In this model, heterogeneous firms experience learning in the form of market entry costs that depend on export history. Using Russian firm level data, I find that learning plays a significant role in explaining the observed entry patterns, which standard trade models cannot account for.     

2009中国外贸200强

连续10年保持强劲增长的中国外贸在2009年“熄火”了,受困于外需疲软,2009中国外贸200强的门槛首次下调。尽管上榜企业还是先于整体形势回暖,但榜单中外资企业比重过大、加工贸易主导的格局并未改变。     

Exchange-rate sensitivity of commodity trade flows: Does the choice of reporting country affect the empirical estimates?

While the effects of currency fluctuations on trade have long been of interest to economic researchers, the most recent trend in the literature is to estimate commodity trade flows between pairs of countries. This raises an important question: Does it matter which country reports the data? This study investigates 96 industries that are reported both as exports by the United States and as imports by South Korea. Since export data are FOB and import data are CIF, the Korean imports are expectedly larger than the US exports. Correspondingly, our cointegration analysis produces drastically different results between specifications. Nonparametric analysis shows that the Korean imports are more sensitive to real exchange-rate fluctuations than US exports, signifying the importance of cost of insurance and freight, as well as the data's conversion into dollars.     

Trade Diversion as Firm Adjustment to Trade Policy: Evidence from EU Anti‐dumping Duties on Vietnamese Footwear

This paper evaluates the impact of the 2006 European Union anti‐dumping (AD) action on Vietnamese footwear in three markets: imports to the EU, footwear producers in Vietnam, and the trade diversionary adjustment of Vietnamese firms in the US market. We find that the AD action reduced Vietnamese imports to the EU by as much as 65 per cent. Given that the EU makes up almost two‐thirds of Vietnam's footwear exports and footwear is among the top four export industries for Vietnam, this reduction is economically significant. Consistent with predictions of our model, we find evidence of trade diversion by Vietnamese producers from the EU to the US market. Our difference‐in‐difference estimates of the AD actions on the value of Vietnamese footwear imports to the United States ranged from 69 to 71 per cent over the period 2004–07 and 69 to 72 per cent in terms of quantity. These results highlight the spillover effects of trade policy in third markets when firms adjust to trade barriers. Our results are robust to triple‐difference specifications where we adjust for trend differences and a series of placebo specifications.     

The issue of import motivation in manufacturer—overseas distributor relationships: Implications for exporters

Understanding the factors influencing the import decision making process plays an important role in export growth and development. However, little empirical work has been done in the pertinent marketing literature to examine the issue of import motivation. This paper reports on a systematic study of import stimulus variables in the UK exporting manufacturer‐Bahraini distributor relationship. It identifies a “multi‐attribute perceptual gap” in import motivation between exporting and importing companies, on the basis of which exporters appear to underestimate the significance of several variables in influencing the import decision of Bahraini distributors. The research findings have important implications for business practitioners in exporting firms and future research directions.     

PROMOTING EFFORTS FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE IMPACT OF IMPORT PROMOTION OFFICES

Increasing exports from developing countries is widely regarded as an important part of a development and growth strategy. A major problem confronting exporters from developing countries is the many market barriers they typically face when attempting to enter markets in developed countries. Different institutions have been established to alleviate this problem, including export promotion offices (EPOs) in various developing countries and import promotion offices (IPOs) in several developed countries. The present study explores the impact of IPOs on exports from developing to developed countries by examin ing the actual pattern of imports into OECD countries over the period 1988 to 1993. Four specific product groups are selected and a model pertaining to explain the pattern of imports is presented. The results show that, even after controlling for a number of economic and policy variables, the share of imports originating in developing coun tries is indeed positively influenced by the presence of an IPO in the importing country. Thus, the results suggest that the establishment of an IPO may have a positive impact on the share of imports originat ing in developing countries.     

The great trade collapse and the Spanish export miracle: Firm‐level evidence from the crisis

We provide novel evidence on the microstructure of international trade during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent global recession by exploring a rich firm‐level data set from Spain. The focus of our analysis is on changes at the extensive and intensive firm‐level margins of trade, as well as on performance differences (jobs, productivity and firm survival) across firms that differ in their export status. We find no adverse effects of the financial crisis on foreign market entry or exit, but a considerable increase in the export intensity of firms after the financial crisis. Moreover, we find that exporters were more resilient to the crisis than non‐exporters. Finally, while exporters showed a significantly more favourable development of total factor productivity after 2009 than non‐exporters, aggregate productivity declined substantially in a large number of industries in Spanish manufacturing. We also briefly explore two factors that might help explain the surprisingly strong export performance of Spain in the aftermath of the great trade collapse: improved aggregate competitiveness due to internal and external devaluation and a substitutive relationship between domestic and foreign sales at the firm level.     

Choice of markets for initial export activities: Differences between early and late exporters

The behaviour of early exporters not only challenges the perspective of the sequential process of internationalization, but it also questions general concepts in the field of management, such as the liability of newness and the liability of foreignness. This study analyses how firms initiate their export activities and proposes differences between early exporters and other firms. The results of our empirical investigation demonstrate that early exporters begin exporting to a greater number of countries than late exporters. However, in the case of early exporters, those countries are institutionally closer to the country of origin of the firm. Finally, we analyze the role played by financial resources in the choice of markets for those initial exports.     

Does Export Openness Increase Firm‐level Output Volatility?

There is a widespread concern that increased trade may lead to increased instability and thus risk at the firm level. Greater export openness can indeed affect firm‐level volatility by changing the exposure and the reaction of firms to macroeconomic developments. The net effect is ambiguous from a theoretical point of view. This paper provides firm‐level evidence on the link between openness and volatility. Using comprehensive data on more than 21,000 German manufacturing firms for the period 1980–2001, we analyse the evolution of firm‐level output volatility and the link between volatility and export openness. Our paper has three main findings. First, firm‐level output volatility is significantly higher than the level of aggregate volatility, but it displays similar patterns. Second, increased export openness lowers firm‐level output volatility. This effect is primarily driven by variations along the extensive margin, i.e. by the distinction between exporters and non‐exporters. Variations along the intensive margin, i.e. the volume of exports, tend to have a dampening impact on volatility as well. Third, small firms are more volatile than large firms.     

Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany

Recent literature finds that exporters are particularly vulnerable to financial market frictions. As a consequence, exports may be lower than their efficient levels. For this reason, many countries support exporters by underwriting export credit guarantees. The empirical evidence on the effects of those policies is, however, very limited. In this paper, we use sectoral data on export credit guarantees issued by the German government. We investigate whether those guarantees indeed do increase exports and whether they remedy the export‐restricting effect of credit market imperfections both on the sectoral and on the export‐market levels. Exploiting the sectoral structure of a rich three‐way panel data set of German exports, we control for unobserved heterogeneity on the country‐year, sector‐year and country‐sector dimensions. We document a robust export‐increasing effect of guarantees. There is some evidence that the effect is larger for export markets with poor financial institutions and in sectors that rely more on external finance.     

A Firm-level Examination of the Exports Puzzle: Why East Asian Exports Didn't Increase After the 1997–1998 Financial Crisis

We analyse a detailed panel dataset on Indonesian manufacturing firms to characterise the exports puzzle: the surprising absence of export-led growth after the massive currency devaluation during the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis. Our results show that, consistent with trade theory predictions following better terms of trade, entry into export markets increased dramatically. In conflict with the same predictions, however, many pre-crisis exporters quit exporting. Thus stagnant export growth cannot be attributable to a lack of entrepreneurial ambition or activity amongst would-be exporters. Rather, it apparently resulted from constraints prohibiting continued exporting by pre-crisis exporters. Managerial reports of perceived constraints reveal little about why so many firms ceased exporting. However, ‘better’ firms, as proxied by foreign ownership, involvement in research and development, or investment in training, were more likely to continue exporting post-crisis.