美国的双边自由贸易协定与环境问题

从进入21世纪以来,美国积极投入到双边自由贸易协定的谈判之中,并且已取得了令人瞩目的成果。在这些协定中都设有专门的“环境”一章来协调签字国之间的环境问题。本文分析了美国将贸易政策的重心转向双边自由贸易协定的原因,以美澳自由贸易协定为例介绍了“环境”部分的内容,并分析了美国在双边自由贸易协定中规定环境条款的原因,以及对我国的启示。     

The Impact of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements on Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment among Developed Countries

Previous studies find that a trade treaty positively impacts foreign direct investment (FDI). But does a trade treaty always have positive effects on FDI? What is the effect of bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) on bilateral FDI among developed countries? Based on the Knowledge‐Capital model, I hypothesize that bilateral FTA has negative effects on bilateral FDI in developed–developed country pairs, but positive effects in developed–developing country pairs. To test this hypothesis empirically, I conduct the within estimator, the Difference‐in‐Difference estimator and the Arellano–Bond estimator with panel data of bilateral FTA and outward FDI in 30 OECD countries and 32 non‐OECD countries between 1982 and 2005. The result supports the hypothesis. The existence of bilateral FTA decreases bilateral FDI in the OECD–OECD country pairs but increases bilateral outward FDI in the OECD–non‐OECD country pairs. The finding of negative effects of bilateral FTA on FDI is robust to different country classifications by gross national income (GNI) per capita and secondary school enrolment. Hence, the results are consistent with what Carr et al. (2001) predicts about the effects of trade cost on FDI in developed–developed country pairs and in developed–developing country pairs.     

Bilateral Free Trade Agreements and Customs Unions: The Impact of the EU Republic of South Africa Free Trade Agreement on Botswana

The EU has indicated that after 2008 its trade relationships with developing countries will be dominated by the development of preferential trade agreements. Although not a consequence of the Cotonou Agreement, the free trade agreement between the EU and the Republic of South Africa (EU RSA FTA) was clearly one of the first fruits of this approach to trade relationships. However, there is no evidence that the design of the EU RSA FTA incorporated a comprehensive general equilibrium evaluation of the agreement for either the signatories or the other southern African nations. The analyses reported here indicate that while the EU RSA FTA may substantially benefit the signatories, there are appreciable negative impacts for other states, especially the Republic of South Africa's immediate neighbours. Moreover, the analyses indicate that the structural adjustments for African economies signalled by the FTA are substantial, which implies that there will be substantial economic costs associated with the FTA.     

Liberalisation and Protection under Overlapping Free Trade Agreements: Dynamic Interplay between Free Trade Agreements and Investment

Two decades into the most recent wave of regionalism many of its implications remain to be fully understood. A vast literature has explored the impacts of free trade agreements (FTAs) on investment flows, but less attention has been given to how existing patterns of investment alter FTA liberalisation. It is contended here that the dynamic interplay between overlapping FTA areas and the investment sunk in them shapes governments' and firms' positions regarding further FTA liberalisation. During trade negotiations, a country may decide to exclude a sector from FTA liberalisation to prevent (concession prevention) future FTA partners from making similar demands. Concession prevention could also occur when a foreign firm, holding a dominant market position in a host country, relinquishes liberalisation demands in an FTA between host and home countries to prevent its current position being eroded if the host country grants similar (or better) concessions to competing firms from other countries in future FTAs. Conversely, investment sunk into a country's sensitive sector in the territory of partners from previous FTAs could pre‐empt (concession pre‐emption) the protectionist position of that country when it subsequently negotiates FTAs with the investment‐source countries. These arguments were tested in the negotiations around the liberalisation of the automotive industry that Thailand and Malaysia had with Japan in their respective bilateral FTAs. The distinct interaction between investment and the FTAs in which these countries participate resulted either in entrenchment of protectionism in the sector or its liberalisation across subsequent FTAs.     

Free Trade Agreements Are Cause for Hope

On October 21, three bilateral trade agreements have passed the US House of Representatives and Senate. But the votes came with a sense of relief rather than celebration from their supporters, and resignation rather than anger from their opponents. Very occasionally, common sense soars above political partisanship and     

Free Trade Agreements and Governance of the Global Trading System

This article explores how far free trade agreements (FTAs) have strengthened or weakened global governance of the trading system. We open with an analysis of the altered political and economic context within which countries have come, in recent years, to assign a new importance to regional and bilateral trade agreements in their trade policies. We then consider each of the main provisions included in FTAs and comment on how these may separately affect the management of trade relations. We conclude with some observations of the broader trends affecting global governance that are associated with the spread of trade agreements as a whole.     

区域自由贸易协议与多边贸易体制的发展

区域自由贸易协议作为一种对多边贸易体制产生影响的重要因素,它的发展在GATT时期就已经受到缔约方全体的规制。随着WTO多哈回合谈判议程的停滞,区域自由贸易安排开始活跃。这种区域自由贸易安排,根据其发展的特点,对多边贸易体制的影响存在两面性:在短期内可能会为多边贸易谈判提供协调意见的平台,但是这种区域自由贸易协议的长期运行也会割裂多边贸易体制的统一性,加深经济社会发展不平衡的状况。控制区域自由贸易的消极影响,必须调整WTO的区域自由贸易规则,使区域自由贸易安排能够在多边贸易体制的框架内运行。     

区域贸易协定中的金融审慎例外条款研究

区域贸易协定的蓬勃发展推动各国不断开放各自的金融服务贸易。但金融危机的爆发使人们认识到,全球金融服务贸易的健康发展需要在自由化与审慎监管之间保持适度的平衡。然而,当前已有FTAs中的金融监管审慎例外简单挪用GATS模本,在条款本身的准确度、与FTAs的协调度以及对金融监管改革的包容度方面都显示出不足,无法给各方尤其是发展中国家提供足够的审慎监管空间。中国不应盲目跟从他国FTAs的范本,而是应结合本国具体国情设计出符合当前发展阶段的金融审慎例外条款。     

Free Trade Agreements In the Americas: Are the Trade Effects Larger than Anticipated?

This paper argues that the ‘competitive liberalisation’ of national governments of the past several decades reflects national governments’ expectations of larger trade impacts from regional economic integration agreements (EIAs) than typical ex ante economic models have suggested. Moreover, we show that previous (typically cross‐section) ex post empirical evaluations of the effects of EIAs on trade have seriously over‐ or underestimated the effects, partly due to ignoring the (endogenous) self‐selection bias of country pairs into EIAs. Accounting for this bias, we find that economic integration agreements in the Americas have had much larger impacts on trade over the period 1960–2000 than previously found and the ex post estimates are less fragile than those in earlier cross‐section analyses. The results shed further light on understanding the causes and consequences of the growth of regionalism in the world.     

自由贸易协议谈判中的国际劳工标准问题

国际劳工标准是一种规范全球范围劳工事务的制度。经济全球化导致劳工标准问题的重要性日益凸现,发达国家采取了将劳工标准与贸易挂钩的方式推进劳工标准的实施,并在地区层次和双边层次取得了重大进展,但在全球层次的谈判则陷入"囚徒困境"。这是发达国家和发展中国家在劳工标准领域博弈的结果。中国在劳工标准领域也面临着巨大的挑战。     

Trade Liberalisation: The Effects of Free Trade Agreements on the Competitiveness of the Dairy Sector

In recent years, preferential trade agreements (PTAs), free trade agreements (FTAs) in particular, have proliferated while WTO negotiations have stagnated. This paper contributes to the literature on trade liberalisation and the agricultural sector by analysing the effects of FTAs on the competitiveness of the dairy sector across 76 countries and over a 20‐year period from 1990 to 2009. With a longitudinal econometric model, the results demonstrate that when a country has a revealed comparative advantage in the dairy sector, FTAs positively influence several indicators of competitiveness in the dairy sector, such as production, market share and trade balance. The results also indicate that multilateral FTAs are more beneficial than bilateral FTAs. There is strong empirical evidence that FTAs are more beneficial to developed countries than to developing countries. There is no statistical evidence to support the hypothesis about a relationship between FTAs and farm‐gate price.     

Small Hubs,Large Spokes and Overlapping Free Trade Agreements

The proliferation of overlapping free trade agreements (FTA) in recent years has led to pair‐wise hub‐and‐spokes (HAS) throughout the world. Being avid subscribers to FTAs, many countries in the Asia‐Pacific region, including the United States, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Australia, have become trade hubs to their partners who are in turn relegated to spoke status. In this paper, we question whether being a hub is welfare optimal for a small and open economy such as Singapore compared to membership in a single bilateral FTA or a multi‐member free trade zone. Within this context, we use a computable general equilibrium model to examine the welfare implications of the triangular trade relationship of the United States, Singapore and Japan. This is facilitated by the Japan–Singapore Economic Partnership Agreement, the USA–Singapore Free Trade Agreement, and a hypothetical USA–Japan Economic Partnership Agreement. The analysis is extended to incorporate ‘super‐hub’ effects, that is, the spoke countries could be trade hubs in other HAS systems. Our experiment reveals that hub status generates positive welfare gain and is the highest Singapore can get from the trade configurations considered. Meanwhile, Japan loses more than the USA when both are relegated to spoke status. These findings prove to be robust under different market structures and production technologies, deeper economic integration, ‘super‐hub’ effects, as well as uncertainty in the key model parameters and the extent of trade liberalisation shocks.     

论我国自由贸易区谈判中的环境和劳工保护问题

区域贸易协议已经成为包含贸易和大量非贸易议题的综合性协议,我国在自由贸易区谈判中遇到的难题之一就是如何应对环境和劳工这样的非贸易议题。如果采取不接受在贸易协议中谈判与贸易相关的这类议题的策略,就必然要在贸易上付出更多的代价来换取谈判对手的妥协。文章主张积极应对这类谈判,但可以根据我国的国情和利益,研究和采取灵活的和非强制性的政策工具。     

China's New Regional Trade Agreements

This paper discusses the recent regional trade agreements that China has concluded rapidly following accession to the WTO in 2002. Agreements are in place with Hong Kong, Macao, ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand, and are either in negotiation or under discussion with South Africa, Chile, India and the Gulf Cooperation Council. These agreements differ sharply in form and substance, and involve process commitments to ongoing negotiation and cooperation on a wide range of issues. Differences relating to the regional agreements negotiated by the EU and the US are emphasised, as are later potential difficulties these agreements create in moving to an Asian trade bloc centred on them.     

双边投资协定中的TRIPS-plus标准研究

投资协定中的知识产权保护是很重要的。通过将特定的知识产权纳入投资的定义范围,国际投资协定中的所有条款都适用于受保护的知识产权,这就使此类协定在公平与公正待遇、透明度义务、投资争端解决机制上为受保护的知识产权提供TRIPS-plus标准,我国应该采取的对策是,在有关投资的定义中增加限制性条款,对公平与公正待遇明确其含义,将透明度义务与公平与公正待遇独立,将与知识产权有关的纠纷排除在投资争端解决机制之外。     

日欧、美欧及美日自贸协议对中国经济的影响——基于GTAP模型的模拟分析

本文利用GTAP模型,从宏观与行业两个层面,模拟分析日欧自贸协议、美欧自贸协议、美日自贸协议以及加拿大等多个国家(地区)加入日本与美欧签订的自贸协议这4种情况对中国经济的影响,还分析了中国促进技术进步,以应对上述4种自贸协议影响的效果。结论如下:上述自贸协议不但引致中国的GDP、居民收入、居民消费和资本回流净收益率下降,外贸顺差扩大,还使得中国出口贸易总额与总产出水平下降,而且随着参与自贸协议国家(地区)数量的增加,中国宏观经济与产业受到的影响也随之扩大;中国促进技术进步,能够减轻甚至可以消除美日欧自贸协议对中国宏观经济与产业的冲击。     

The Effects of Cultural Distance,Free Trade Agreements,and Protectionism on Perceived Export Barriers

ABSTRACT

This article addresses the questions as to whether cultural distance and a free trade agreement with a trade bloc, as well as protectionism, have an impact on perceived external export barriers. The evaluation of a mail survey of chief executive officers from 459 Norwegian companies shows that protectionism has a strong significant effect on the level of perceived external export barriers. The cultural distance to the export markets has only a small effect, while the free trade agreement with the European Union has no effect.     

International Trade Agreements and International Migration

Despite large potential economic gains, bilateral and multilateral negotiations focusing on liberalisation of migration have not shared the high profile of international trade negotiations and agreements. Migration and trade have been traditionally viewed rather separately and the relevance of the many, and complex, interdependencies has been given remarkably little attention in the literature to date. In this article, we focus on the two‐way interaction between international migration and agreements designed to enhance cross‐border trade and investment. Liberalisation of international trade in services and in the movement of people potentially offers much greater economic gains than liberalisation of remaining barriers to goods trade. However, progress within multilateral frameworks is fraught with difficulty. The World Trade Organization’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) has yielded little real progress so far and negotiations within more flexible unilateral and bilateral frameworks are likely to be more successful in liberalising the movement of labour. We discuss a range of specific examples, focusing particularly on the interesting case of New Zealand. We find that trade agreements are increasingly including agreements on migration, though typically favouring temporary migration and involving numerically modest quotas. We conclude that migration regulatory frameworks are likely to be further and more strongly linked to trade and investment agreements in the future, particularly given changing economic and demographic forces. The primary focus of migration policies may nonetheless remain different from that of trade policies. While further migration liberalisation is likely to be through bilateral and regional agreements, it will be important to try to lock in the gains of such agreements, while simultaneously working to consolidating these in a way that will help to facilitate future multilateral agreement.     

Sequencing Regional Trade Integration and Cooperation Agreements

Trade integration agreements and other international cooperation agreements have proliferated in recent years around the world. Rather than being spurred by exogenous forces alone, the two phenomena are likely to be both path‐dependent and endogenous to one another. However, the theoretical and empirical understanding of the relationships between agreements forged in different domains of cooperation remains nascent. The purpose of this paper is to describe a new, extensive dataset on international agreements that can be employed to start mending the gaps in the literature, and to develop ‘best practices’ of sequencing international agreements to obtain higher pay‐offs from cooperation. Of particular interest here is the relationship between trade integration and other cooperation agreements; the data provide preliminary grounds for hypothesising that trade integration agreements can be a particularly likely catalyst for further cooperation between states.     

欧盟贸易协定谈判机制研究

国际协定是欧盟法律体系的重要组成部分。与贸易有关的国际协定,包括贸易协定、合作协定以及联系协定等,也是欧盟贸易政策的重要组成部分。本文通过介绍欧盟贸易协定谈判权的法理依据、各参与主体的法律地位和作用、参与主体内部及之间的权力平衡关系,分析和研究了欧盟贸易协定谈判机制,以利于进一步了解欧盟法律和贸易政策,也有益于发展中欧贸易关系。