Economic Theory and Industrial Policy in East Asia

Economic liberalisation has been advocated as universally valid for developed and developing countries alike, and, as a result, the role of the state has been disparaged in favour of unrestricted markets and free trade. The neo-classical proposition is by no means fully justified from a theoretical point of view, and there exist powerful, countervailing arguments why government intervention and market coordination, especially during a nation's initial stage of industrialisation, can achieve improved resource allocation and greater competitive advantage. By helping to explain the very creation of industrial capacity, as well as the enhancement of long-term growth rates, institutional economics can provide clearer insights into the complementary roles of state and market. These theories are, moreover, supported by empirical evidence from East Asia, where government has been a contributory but not dominant factor in the achievement of economic success.     

The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas

Highbrow opinion is like a hunted hare; if you stand long enough it will come back to the place it started from. Dennis Robertson     

Exchange Rate Pass‐through and Currency Invoicing: Implications for Monetary Integration in East Asia

Exporter's price‐setting behaviour and currency invoicing play a key role in the literature on the new open‐economy macroeconomics. This paper estimates exchange rate pass‐through coefficients for the exports of four ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In addition, previous estimates of pass‐through as well as invoicing behaviour in East Asia are discussed in the context of regional integration. The new pass‐through coefficients are estimated under two alternate specifications for up to 34 goods for each of the four ASEAN countries destined for up to 13 major markets. The results suggest: (a) little pass‐through is occurring in Southeast Asia and (b) this lack of pass‐through is more likely attributable to the fact that they are small countries in a relatively integrated market, rather than evidence of pricing to market. The implications for regional monetary integration of this apparently low degree of pass‐through are detailed.     

An Asian Currency Unit: Simulations for Its Effects on East Asia

An Asian currency unit (ACU) is necessary to deepen Asian financial markets and to convert national currencies into a single monetary policy. However, the experiences of the European Currency Unit and the European Exchange Rate Mechanism crisis in 1992–93 have indicated the danger of the so‐called gradual approach. This study evaluates the effects of welfare should the ACU indicator become a long‐term constraint of the People's Republic of China and Japan, the big two in East Asia. Our results indicate that the constraints of countries’ own baskets (e.g. real effective exchange rates) are still better before the launch of a true single currency. That is, pegging to an ACU indicator could hardly be sustained in the long‐run if East Asian countries have not reached a consensus about a regional monetary union.     

东亚货币合作的模式及未来前景

本文概述了东亚货币合作的背景及模式,剖析了进一步推进其合作在理论上和实践上面临的困难和挑战,并就中国的参与和作用以及合作的前景进行了探讨和分析。     

东亚货币合作:基于最优货币区指数的实证研究

本文在修正BE模型的基础上计算了东亚国家之间的最优货币区指数,认为东亚各国的最优货币区指数有减少的趋势,表明东亚货币合作存在可行性;截面数据的最优货币区指数显示在中国大陆、香港、台湾地区、韩国和日本这些次区域内先进行货币合作是较为可行的现实选择;另外与欧洲相比,东亚地区的最优货币区指数较大,表明东亚的货币合作将是一个长期渐进的过程。     

Economic Governance,Accountability and Accounting Change in East Asia

The development of economic governance is now thought to require the remaking of respective accountabilities along with significant corresponding accounting change. On the basis of key discourses about a particular ‘critical’ period in East Asia's recent history, this article considers whether certain regional and individual country accountabilities were actually remade and whether the role of accounting changed accordingly. It finds that the preferred strategies governing economic recovery after the East Asian crisis were partial and incompletely realized. It concludes that ‘higher order’ governance has been unexpectedly problematic and requires more East Asian sourced research in future.     

东亚经济合作之日本因素探析

日本作为东亚地区最大的发达国家,在东亚经济合作中起着举足轻重的作用。从日本因素角度研究东亚经济合作,分析新时期日本参与东亚地区经济合作的原因以及在当前的国际环境下日本的国际战略,得出的结论是,地区主义应该成为21世纪日本最重要的对外战略。     

Economic growth in South East Asia and its consequences for the environment

The debate on environmental policy generally focuses on the industrialized countries. It is often neglected that rapid economic growth in the newly industrializing countries is certain to lead to the rise of environmental issues on a large scale. Especially Eastern and South East Asia will witness major environmental degradation in the next few decades unless appropriate environmental policy measures accompany further economic growth.     

FDI对东亚区域经济一体化的影响研究

文章通过使用1990～2008年度的数据,利用时间序列分析方法对东亚国家的FDI与区域内投资和贸易一体化的关系进行了详细的实证研究。研究结果表明:长期而言,在区域生产网络机制的作用下,FDI的流入将促进东亚区域内国家(地区)之间的贸易和投资流动,有利于推动东亚区域经济一体化。在当前东亚区域经济一体化进展缓慢的背景下,通过一系列激励措施吸引外资,是促进东亚区域经济一体化发展的不错选择。     

Structural Change,Economic Crisis and International Labour Migration in East Asia

Increased international labour migration was one important dimension of structural change and globalisation in East Asia from the mid 1980s. Large international movements of mainly unskilled contract labour occurred in response to widening wage gaps between more and less developed countries in the region as the former experienced rapid structural change. Labour importing countries increasingly relied on unskilled migrant workers in less preferred jobs, in both export‐oriented and non‐tradable goods industries. The Asian economic crisis dramatically influenced the context in which international labour mobility had occurred in the pre‐crisis period. Important issues included a possible reversal in role of international migration in structural change, both among unskilled contract workers and more skilled migrants, and replacement of migrants by unemployed local workers. The paper argues that the Asian economic crisis did not reverse the fundamental trend toward greater reliance on unskilled migrant workers in agriculture, manufacturing and service industries. Business and professional migration remained significant and even rose in some countries during the crisis. However, several countries were forced to develop a more coherent policy towards migrant workers, in light of the social impact of the crisis.     

Economic relations between the EU and East Asia: Past, present and future

Present economic linkages between the European Union and East Asia are relatively underdeveloped despite the fact that a number of EU member states have deep historical associations within the region. It is imperative that EU business engages itself more intensively in East Asia if Europe is not to become marginalised in an emergent “Pacific century”. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A02GP109 00002     

全球经济治理体系改革的东亚方案与中国作用

全球性经济问题不断出现暴露了现行全球经济治理体系的诸多问题,治理体系亟待改革。受地缘政治以及历史等因素的影响,东亚区域一体化发展滞缓并始终缺位于全球经济治理体系。东亚地区已经成为世界经济增长的重要一极,应积极贡献体现东亚区域价值理念和制度设计的全球经济治理改革方案。东亚方案应着重解决当前全球经济治理体系存在的平等缺位、合作缺位、责任缺位,倡导全球经济的包容性发展、以"开放的区域主义"维护全球经济治理的多边体制以及构建多元化的全球货币体系。中国是东亚区域的核心国家,应积极发挥作用保障东亚方案的有效可行,推动全球经济治理体系的改革。     

东亚经济一体化的贸易与投资效应

20世纪80年代以来,东亚区域(10+3)经济一体化取得长足的进展,经济区域化给东亚地区带来显著的经济绩效。文章根据区域经济一体化理论,深入地分析了东亚经济区域化带来的区域内贸易和投资效应,并通过计量模型对东亚地区的FDI与贸易的关系进行了检验,发现在东亚FDI与进口和出口都是互补关系,即FDI促进了东亚地区的贸易发展。     

包容性改革论背景下货币互换政策的经济风险防范

欧洲包容性改革论下,中国市场体系逐步健全,而相应的市场秩序也有所完善。落实欧洲包容性改革创新体系的构建时,中国应该根据经济建设的实际情况,走中国特色社会主义道路,形成有中国特色的包容性改革创新体系。而包容性改革和货币互换会给中国带来风险,主要包括经济调整政策的波动较为激烈、人民币升值兑换率下降,扩大了外汇债务,还加大了经济套期保值的损失。为了有效规避这些风险,中国应扩大宏观经济政策的投入力度,加强政府层面对市场经济建设的监管,根据人民币与产业链之间的资本流通构建相应体系,从而真正完善货币互换流通市场的整体制度,并通过控制货币互换的规模,降低其对国家经济建设所带来的重大风险。     

入世与东亚次区域经济合作

自中国实行对外开放政策以来,受中国经济高速增长和进出口及引进外资不断扩大的影响,东亚地区的国际分工格局发生了重大的变化.可以预见,中国入世以后,东亚地区上述国际分工格局的变化将呈加速的趋势.     

东亚区域生产网络发展与东亚区域经济合作的深化

随着产品内分工的发展,东亚区域生产网络的日益深化已成为东亚区域经济发展不可逆的趋势。本文梳理了东亚区域生产网络的表现和特征,对东亚区域生产网络引起的东亚贸易结构变化进行了探讨,分析了东亚区域生产网络对东亚各经济体的影响,揭示了东亚区域生产网络存在的缺点和潜在问题,并提出在东亚区域经济合作不断深化的背景下,促进东亚区域生产网络进一步发展的策略。     

构建东亚固定汇率区的经济基础——兼论东亚单一货币区的可行性

加强东亚汇率制度协调,建立东亚固定汇率区,是实现东亚单一货币区的重要核心阶段。依照最优货币区标准进行实证分析,结论为东亚构建固定汇率区是基本可行的,但是由于各种经济和政治因素的制约,必须先易后难、循序渐进,分层次、分阶段、分区域、逐步推进。     

隋唐时期的东亚国际关系与政治制度

隋唐律令制度博大精深且积极向周边国家和地区辐射,以至影响古代朝鲜和日本政治制度的形成与发展。不过,由于各国社会条件、历史背景等方面存在差异,古代朝鲜、日本等国虽受中国文化影响很深,但仍保持着很多自己固有的文化特色。