The Gravity of China's African Export Promise

Africa's largest trade partner, China, criticised for exchanging resources for manufactures, has promised to increase imports and optimise the structure of trade with Africa. Using a gravity model of China's imports for the years 1995–2009, we explore potential dynamics for this promise, uniquely accounting for market economy recognition and Taiwan recognition. The former is associated with increased imports, while the latter effect is ambiguous and statistically insignificant. Comparison of projected against actual imports across three growth‐path‐aligned economic geography typologies – resource‐rich; landlocked and resource‐poor; coastal and resource‐poor – sets out China's imports trends in an abstract framework of African export potential. We find not only ‘under’ importing across a majority of resource‐poor countries. We also find that current trade policy is the least applicable to these comparatively poor exporters’ trade with China. If the latter are to serve a broader catalytic role in Africa's regional industrial transformation as compared to the role of coastal and resource‐poor countries in regional economic transformation in Asia and Latin America, China–Africa trade and investment policies may need additional thinking.     

国际油价与人民币汇率的非对称溢出效应研究--基于VEC-BEKK-GARCH模型

石油作为重要的战略能源,其价格波动对全球经济的运行和发展会产生极大的影响。为测算国际油价与人民币汇率的均衡关系及非对称溢出效应,选取2008年1月~2019年7月的每日数据,在平稳性检验的基础上,综合运用协整检验和脉冲响应函数等方式,对二者的均值溢出效应进行测量;在VECBEKK-GARCH模型的支撑下,对其非对称波动溢出效应水平进行测算。研究结果表明:国际油价与人民币汇率的协整关系和均值溢出效应处于长期均衡状态;二者的非对称波动溢出效应是双向的,国际油价会随人民币汇率的变化呈现出时变性和持续性特征,而国际油价变动具备持续性特征时,人民币汇率随之产生变化。这种非对称波动溢出效应表明,无论国际油价如何变化,对人民币汇率的冲击都是非对称的。     

融资约束、金融财税政策和中国企业对外直接投资

中国已是世界第三大对外投资国,对外直接投资发展迅速的同时结构不平衡,行业较为集中。文章从微观企业视角研究融资约束和金融财税政策如何影响对外直接投资,在梳理政策脉络、阐明理论机制的基础上,匹配中国工业企业数据库和商务部境外投资企业名录,构建logit模型进行实证研究。研究发现:(1)融资约束对中国企业对外直接投资具有显著影响,融资能力越强的企业越倾向进行对外直接投资。(2)政府出台的金融财税政策可以提高企业对外直接投资的概率,同时弱化融资能力对企业对外直接投资的积极影响,但该调节作用不适用于国有企业和外资企业,在行业层面仅适用于采矿业、金属冶炼业和纺织业。     

国际大宗商品价格波动对中国CPI的影响及对策

随着中国石油、铁矿石及粮食等大宗商品对外依存度的上升,国际大宗商品价格波动加剧不仅对国内市场价格水平造成了很大冲击,还严重危及中国宏观经济运行的稳定。鉴于此,国家在制定调控物价的相关政策和措施时,应特别注意国际大宗商品价格波动对国内价格水平的影响,尤其是要关注国际原材料价格的波动,及时采取有效措施,重视防范通胀。     

Managing China's energy sector: between the market and the state

As China has now become the largest energy consumer in the world, its energy sector has understandably huge domestic and global implications. In this Special Issue, which is an interdisciplinary one, comprising a set of eight in-depth empirical studies by leading international experts in the field, we set out to examine the management of the transformation of China's conventional and renewable energy sectors, with special attention to state–business relations and their link to the market.     

Europe and China in the Global Economy in the Next 50 Years: A Partnership for Global Peace and Stability

With huge debt levels, high unemployment and low growth, it appears that the European economy will continue to stagnate for the foreseeable future. China, on the other hand, has emerged as the largest trading nation in the world and become the second largest economy in the world. China’s economic rise presents a rare opportunity for Europe. However, to fully take advantage of these opportunities, both economies will need to overcome some economic frictions and trade protectionism tendencies.     

局部地区冲突冲击了中国石油进口吗

文章利用1992～2018年中国从80个国家石油进口的非平衡面板数据,实证考察出口国发生局部地区冲突对中国石油进口的影响,并对其异质性特征和可能的影响机制予以识别。研究表明,出口国局部地区冲突会给中国石油进口带来显著的负向冲击,该影响主要是局部地区冲突引起出口国石油产量下降所致。局部地区冲突不会通过国际油价和中国石油对外直接投资影响中国石油进口。石油资源禀赋和"一带一路"倡议能够在一定程度上对冲局部冲突对中国石油进口的负向影响。局部地区冲突对中国石油进口的冲击具有明显的阶段性特征,并且随着中国石油进口依存度的攀升逐渐增强。在当前国际油市深度调整的现实背景下,该研究为深刻认识一系列国际重大突发事件对中国石油进口的影响、保障中国石油进口安全提供了科学借鉴。     

浅谈中国软实力在非洲的应用

现在中国的软实力日益引起国内外的关注。中国在非洲软实力的应用对中国国际形象的构建与传播,对中非关系的深入发展以及和谐世界的构建具有重要的现实意义,但是,中国在非洲软实力的庆用也受到软实力本身中的中国模式以及非洲投资环境的制约,以及来自西方社会种种的猜疑与批评,因此,我们应在未来加大对非文化交流力度,继续深化中非在民主政治、人权领域的对话与合作,进一步优化对非政策的国际宣传策略,进而加强中国软实力在非洲的应用。     

任正非 唯惶者能生存

他塑造华为的狼文化,但却不贪婪。他让华为成为全中国最国际化的企业,却低调谨慎,他一直强调的是:"华为没有成功,只有成长。"     

我国对外贸易发展的挑战和对策研究

改革开放以来,我国对外贸易发展迅速,已经成长为全球第一大货物贸易国。然而,我国对外贸易也面临着人口红利快速衰减、经济增长下降明显、贸易竞争力提升比较慢、对外贸易高端人才支撑不足等国内因素的挑战,加之国际贸易新规则频出、贸易保护主义抬头、全球经济增长失速、WTO改革陷入停滞等国际因素的挑战。应积极构建高标准自贸网络打破美国封锁、加快推进“一带一路”建设、以高质量为目标加快对外贸易转型、加强国际贸易领域人才培养,以实现我国对外贸易的健康可持续发展。     

后金融危机时代中国国际贸易摩擦的特点、趋势及对策

国际金融危机的爆发将国际贸易推向了贸易保护主义的泥沼,世界主要经济体普遍采取大量不合理的贸易限制与贸易救济措施。中国作为世界第一大出口国、第二大进口国,首当其冲,遭受了众多国家贸易保护主义倾向的反倾销、反补贴等措施,成为首要目标国和最大受害者。贸易摩擦数量居高不下、强度增大;涉及到传统制造业和新兴产业领域;除"双反"措施之外的技术性、绿色壁垒开始增多;摩擦议题也升级到经济体制层面;同新兴发展中国家的摩擦日益增多。后金融危机时代,贸易摩擦已经成为困扰中国对外贸易的一大顽疾。面对这种现状及发展趋势,中国在平常心面对的同时,需要反求诸己、深化改革,礼尚往来、法律抗衡,坐而论道,妥善解决。     

我国铁矿石贸易现状及对策

自2003年以来,中国就成为全球最大的铁矿石进口国,铁矿石的依存度相当高,但中国在世界铁矿石定价中没有应有的话语权,只能被动接受既成事实,造成重大经济损失,成为铁矿石价格暴涨的最大受害者。在这个背景下,本文分析铁矿石的贸易现状,并提出了相关政策建议,以期最大限度规避铁矿石涨价所造成的负面影响。     

国际经验及其对中国争夺稀土定价权的启示

中国作为世界最大的稀土供应国,长期以来却无法取得稀土的国际定价权,这不仅影响到中国企业在国际贸易中的利益,也影响到我国经济的持续稳定发展和国家经济安全。文章首先指出中国稀土国际定价权缺失的现状及其紧迫性。然后分析了欧美发达国家在争夺金属、石油、粮食等大宗商品定价权方面的成功经验。最后,在此基础上为中国争取稀土国际定价权提出了对策建议,即提高产业集中度、组建稀土卡特尔体系、形成稀土国际定价中心和建立稀土国家储备制度。     

The Developmental Impact of the Asian Drivers on Senegal

(1250) Eric Hazard, Lotje De Vries, Mamadou Alimou Barry and Alexis Aka Anouan, with Nicolas Pinaud African countries have deepened their commercial and diplomatic relationships with China and India, and Senegal has been no exception. The historical context of the relationships, however, has differed. While Senegal already enjoyed a long‐lasting and stable relationship with India, relations with China have been more erratic, in particular on account of Dakar’s recognition of the Republic of China. We analyse trade and investment patterns with the Asian Drivers and how Senegal can form a relationship with these two superpowers that can contribute to its national development objectives. Contrary to other countries in Africa, Senegal is not a large producer of natural resources other than phosphates and fisheries and its consumer market is also rather limited. We find scarce evidence of large‐scale FDI flows and the amount of official development assistance is similarly anecdotic. For China and India, Senegal is of some interest as a logistical and commercial centre, rather than a production base for regional or foreign markets. Over the longer run, as these two countries are likely to become more important for Senegal simply on account of their increasing relevance on the world stage, we argue that it is essential that the authorities take these factors into account in developing policies that cater for economic development and social priorities.     

人民币国际化视野下中国石油进口的人民币结算探讨

中国能否随着石油买方地位的不断提高,实现并不断扩大石油进口的人民币结算,进而推动人民币国际化,是具有战略意义的现实问题。本文构建理论框架就中国十大进口来源国对于美元、美国市场和中国市场的态度以及双边贸易差额情况进行逐一分析,研究发现,中国同主要石油进口来源国以人民币结算石油贸易具有很大的可行空间,对此,我们可以进一步扩大人民币作为结算货币的作用,进而将其作为推动人民币国际化的突破口。     

《能源宪章条约》下可再生能源投资仲裁案及启示——以西班牙投资仲裁案为主线的考察

为了加速可再生能源产业的发展,多数国家都制定了相关激励措施以吸引跨国公司的投资。但是,随着政策的变化,相关的法律争端也随之产生。除了国际贸易争端以外,与可再生能源相关的投资争端也大量出现,其中以西班牙最为典型,所涉投资案件也最多。随着"一带一路"倡议的推进,我国投资者在海外可再生能源领域的投资会大幅增加。与此同时,我国能源领域对外开放的幅度正在加大,可再生能源领域的外资也会越来越多,但我国现有法律制度并不足以规范可再生能源的未来发展。本文分析西班牙相关法律政策变化及仲裁庭的裁决,以期对我国可再生能源法律政策的发展和完善,以及可再生能源领域的海外投资者保护提供启示,也为我国分析评估是否加入《能源宪章条约》提供借鉴。     

我国通货膨胀的国际影响因素分析——基于结构向量自回归模型的实证研究

全球金融危机爆发以来,美元持续贬值引起国际原材料价格上涨和国际资本流动扩大.在全球流动性泛滥的背景下,我国通货膨胀屡创新高.文章从美元贬值导致的国际原材料价格波动、国内外利率因素、人民币预期升值三个角度,分别结合国内经济增长,探讨了国际因素对我国通货膨胀的影响.研究发现,国内经济的过热增长是我国通货膨胀的主导因素,但外部冲击特别是国际原油价格对我国通货膨胀的影响也不容忽视.我国不完善的汇率和利率机制,推动了外部因素对我国通货膨胀的冲击,国际因素对我国工业领域通货膨胀的影响相对消费领域而言偏高.     

学商合一的高职商务英语实践教学模式探索

21世纪的世界,经济全球化方兴未艾,中国作为世界贸易大国,也加快了与世界各国交流和贸易的步伐。国际经济合作的日益繁荣,迫切需要一大批既精通语言知识又具有较强商务知识的高级复合型应用型人才。适应世界经济和贸易的发展,高职教育工作者必须审时度势,创新教学观念,改革滞后的商务英语专业教学模式和人才培养模式,逐步建立以实践教学为核心,学商高度结合的新的教学模式,才能培养和造就具有过硬外语能力的高级商务人才,提升商务英语专业人才的国际竞争力。     

Seek for Closer Ties beyond Energy- Exclusive Interview with H.E. Dr. Javad Mamsouri, Iranian Ambassador to China

This year marks the 35 anniversary of the establish- ment of diplomatic relations between China and Iran.Over the last 35 years,bilateral relations between the two sides have seen smooth progresses.In recent years,with active high-level leaders contacts,the two-way economic and trade cooperation between the two countries has been increasingly enlarged in depth and scope.Iran has be- come the second trade partner of China in West Asia and North Africa and the third largest oil supplier of China in the world. The main fields of Iran and China coopera- tion are energy,petrochemicals,chemicals, machineries,textile and steel industry.In 2006,Sino-Iranian two-way trade reached US＄14.45 billion,a year-on-year increase of 43.3%.Among this total,about US＄4.5 billion belonged to China's exports to Iran,and about US＄10 billion came from imports from Iran,up 46.2% and 46.7% re- spectively over the last year.We imported about 16.8 million tons of Iranian oil in that single year.In the first half of 2007,a num- ber of agreements in various areas have been reached by the two countries.In spite of the close bilateral ties,there is still huge room for both sides to further strengthen their economic cooperation. At the invitation of the Iranian Em- bassy to China,China's Foreign Trade had an exclusive interview with H.E.Dr.Javad Mansouri,Iranian Ambassa- dor to China,on a number of issues relating to Sino-lranian economic and trade ties development. By Editor     

物流工程与国际物流运作

我国大型企业要进入世界企业100强或500强的行列,必须极大地提高我国国际物流的支持能力。我国已经加入世界贸易组织,国际贸易和跨国经营都面临着巨大商机和严峻挑战。为了使我国在世界贸易格局中占据有利的地位,提高中国跨国公司的竞争能力和成本优势,开展和加强物流的研究具有重要意义。