The Pricing of Seasoned Equity Offerings: Evidence from REITs

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) have been a very active sector in the capital market over the last few years. This paper examines the pricing of seasoned equity offers by equity REITs during 1991–1996. Consistent with Parsons and Raviv's model, we find that SEOs by REITs are underpriced with respect to both the closing price on the day before and the closing price on the day of the offer. Underpricing depends on the institutional ownership of the firm's common stock. Issues by firms with higher institutional ownership are more underpriced for post-1990 REITs. Further, consistent with the notion that theories of IPO pricing apply to SEOs as well, the underpricing of SEOs is a function of the issue size and of the underwriter's reputation.     

Real Estate and Economies of Scale: The Case of REITs

Building on past research in the economies-of-scale debate, we test for scale economies in real estate investment trusts (REITs) by examining growth prospects, revenue and expense measures, profitability ratios, systematic risk and capital costs. Overall, we find that large REITs are increasing growth prospects while succeeding at lowering costs, leading to a direct relationship between firm profitability and firm size. Additionally, we find an inverse relationship between equity betas and firm size, and for all cost of capital measures we find significant scale economies. Further evidence from the stochastic frontier analysis suggests efficiency opportunities appear possible through continued growth and consolidation in REITs.     

The Information Content of Method of Payment in Mergers: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

We provide evidence on the information content of the method of payment in mergers by examining shareholder returns in a sample of REIT mergers over the period 1994–1998. When the target firm is publicly held, we find that transactions are always stock-financed, and that acquiring firm shareholders sustain small negative returns around the announcement date. When the target is privately held, cash financing, mixed (stock and cash) financing, and placement of blocks of acquirer stock with target owners are more prevalent. Acquirer returns are positive in stock-financed mergers when the target is private, which is consistent with both the information signaling and monitoring by blockholders hypotheses. Further analysis supports the information signaling hypothesis as the dominant explanation. The effects of other explanatory variables are similar whether the target is public or private. Most significantly, acquiring shareholder returns are negatively related to the acquirer's size, but positively related to the acquirer's use of the UPREIT organizational structure. The positive wealth effects of the UPREIT structure are not fully explained as the capitalization of tax benefits.     

Market Efficiency and Return Statistics: Evidence from Real Estate and Stock Markets Using a Present-Value Approach

This paper develops a methodology to identify asset price response to news in the framework of the Campbell–Shiller log-linear present-value equation. We further show that a slow price adjustment in real estate markets not only induces a high serial autocorrelation in excess returns, but also dampens the return volatility and the correlation with excess returns in other asset markets. Using Hong Kong real estate and stock market data, we find that the quarterly real estate price assimilates only about half the effect of market news, whereas the quarterly stock price incorporates the news fully. Our analysis identifies a cumulative price adjustment that recovers lost information in real estate returns due to market inefficiency and thereby restores the real estate return volatility and the correlation between real estate and stock markets.     

The Risk and Return of Commercial Real Estate: A Property Level Analysis

I compare the performance of the index‐based time series approach and the cross‐sectional approach in estimating factor loadings of nontraded assets, and show that the latter likely provides less biased and more efficient estimates. I then use the cross‐sectional approach to estimate the loadings of privately owned commercial real estate on the Fama and French (1993) factors, the Pastor and Stambaugh (2003) liquidity factor, and two bond market factors, using a sample of 14,115 properties in the 1977–2012 period. I find statistically significant loadings, of which the signs seem consistent across property types, but the magnitude varies. Using the time series approach on the same data, I find insignificant loadings on virtually all factors. To investigate the sources of the weak results from the time series approach, I conduct a Monte Carlo simulation in which both approaches are correctly specified and indices can be estimated perfectly. Simulation results suggest that the cross‐sectional approach provides more accurate estimates under reasonable market conditions.     

Return Risk and Cash Flow Risk with Long-term Riskless Leases in Commercial Real Estate

This paper presents a conceptual analysis of some of the key fundamentals that underlie the risk characteristics of commercial real estate returns. In particular, the relationship between the property's return risk and its cash flow risk is explored. This relationship is important because it is the return risk that should matter most to investors, yet it is the cash flow risk or market risk about which we may have the most objective information and the most intuition. This is because real estate assets are generally unsecuritized and trade too infrequently to observe time series of returns (including appreciation) that could be used to directly study the risk characteristics of the returns. By explicitly incorporating the possibility of cash flows governed by riskless long-term leases, this paper also explores the relationship between lease term and both cash flow risk and return risk.     

Inside Ownership, Risk Sharing and Tobin's q-Ratios: Evidence from REITs

We investigate relations among inside ownership, managerial expenses, risk sharing and equity valuations. Our engine of analysis—Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)—provides a unique and rich framework for analysis since we can calculate extremely accurate measures of asset replacement costs, and hence relative valuation (Tobin's q ). Further, the nature of the financial statements allows us to examine the impact of insider ownership on agency costs since we can accurately measure the costs of the entire management team. Our results show that firms with greater insider holdings tend to invest in assets with lower systematic risk and use less debt in their capital structure. At the same time, managerial expenses are lower as inside ownership increases. Finally, higher levels of insider ownership are associated with higher relative valuation as measured by both higher premiums to net asset value and higher multiples of cash flows. The results have implications for the design of optimal management contracts for both REITs and firms in general.     

Real Estate Valuation Models: Lender and Equity Investor Criteria

The use of valuation models that focus on lender criteria has been growing in the appraisal field. In the rush to build lender criteria into real estate valuation models, equity investor criteria, expectations, and requirements occasionally have been ignored. The specific criteria considered in this paper are the loan-to-value ratio and the debt coverage ratio for lenders and the equity dividend rate for equity investors. Each of these three criteria may be a binding constraint on value.
Graphical analysis provides a framework within which major real estate valuation models (i.e., Ellwood, McLaughlin, Gettel, Lusht-Zerbst, and Steele) are compared. A new valuation model (i.e., the Cannaday-Colwell model) is developed which utilizes the equity dividend rate.
The three definitional models (i.e., McLaughlin, Gettel, and Steele) are found to be relevant only by mere coincidence. Each of these models simultaneously considers two of the three key criteria, completely eliminating the possibility of consideration of anything else; i.e., the models become tautological.
It is shown that the discounted cash flow based models (i.e., Ellwood, Lusht-Zerbst, and Cannaday-Colwell) each tell one-third of the story. One of these models will be relevant depending upon whether the binding constraint is the maximum loan-to-value ratio, the minimum debt coverage ratio, or the minimum equity dividend rate. The relevant model is the one that yields the lowest value estimate of the three.     

Auction versus Negotiated Sale: Evidence from Real Estate Sales

We offer a theoretical and empirical comparison of auctions and negotiated sales. We first build a simple model to show that auctions generate a higher relative price than negotiated sales when demand for the asset is strong, when the asset is more homogeneous and when the asset attracts buyers with higher valuations. Using data from property sales in Singapore, we find support for our theoretical predictions. In addition, we find that auctions do not necessarily generate a higher price premium for foreclosed properties than for nonforeclosed properties.     

Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales

Accurate measurement of the returns to real estate investment are essential to sound analysis. This paper improves upon the traditionally employed method—collecting comparable sales data. A dynamic model of real estate appraisal is developed in which agents have incomplete information, heterogeneous search costs, and varying expectations. Various types of simulation analysis of the model indicate it performs best in the sense that the return estimate converges to the true value faster than other simpler rules.     

Temporal Aggregation in Real Estate Return Indices

Temporal aggregation is defined as the use of spot valuations of properties occuring over an interval of time to impute the spot value of a property or of a real estate value index as of a single point in time. Temporal aggregation may characterize not only appraisal-based indices but also indices based directly on transaction prices, such as the National Real Estate Index (NREI) and regression-based indices such as hedonic or repeat-sales indices. This paper analyzes the effect of temporal aggregation on the smoothing of the time series second moments in the resulting real estate return index. Assuming true spot returns are uncorrelated, temporal aggregation-induced smoothing will cause the empirically observed real estate index to understate the own-variance by one-third and the beta by one-half. This amount of bias in the second moments can have major implications for the real estate share in an optimal portfolio. Thus, empirical-based investment analysis could be led astray by smoothing even if the real estate return index is "transaction-based" rather than "appraisal-based."     

Corporate Transparency and Firm Growth: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

Using a panel data set of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), we find corporate transparency to be positively associated with REIT growth. These results suggest that greater transparency facilitates firm growth by relaxing information‐based constraints on external financing. The magnitude of this effect is larger in the equity market than in the debt market. Moreover, the sensitivity of investment to cash flows is decreasing in transparency, evidence that transparency relaxes liquidity constraints. Finally, we find more transparent REITs are less likely to crash.     

Regime Shifts in Asian Equity and Real Estate Markets

This paper applies a new statistical technology for identifying regime shifts to analyze recent data on real estate and equity markets in eight developing Far Eastern countries in the 1992–1998 time period. We find that regime shifts in volatility occur in the summer of 1997; however, most of the regime shifts in returns occur in the spring of 1998. While the clustering of regime breaks does not seem to follow any obvious pattern, the country's exposure to trade and firm leverage are important. An analysis of Granger causality suggests that, in most cases, equity returns cause real estate returns but the converse is not true. We also find two-way causality in volatility, suggesting that a common factor drives volatility in these markets. Finally, we provide evidence that the regime shifts generally imply higher relative risk for real estate securities after the estimated breaks.     

房地产投资风险管理

对房地产投资开发过程中所存在的各种风险进行了分析,运用数学和概率统计的知识,分析了衡量房地产投资风险大小的几种方法,并提出了针对各种潜在风险的规避与控制措施。     

Financial Flexibility and At‐the‐Market (ATM) Equity Offerings: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

This article examines at‐the‐market (ATM) equity programs as an additional source of financial flexibility. We find that firms with higher market‐to‐book ratios and greater institutional ownership are more likely to announce an ATM program. Firms using ATM programs are also more likely to issue shares when they have exhausted other viable financing alternatives, have timely investment opportunities and when market conditions are favorable. Finally, we document a significant negative announcement effect around the establishment of an ATM program, though the magnitude of this effect is significantly less negative than that of a comparable SEO.     

Asset Growth and Stock Performance: Evidence from REITs

In this article, we examine the impact of asset growth rates on the future stock performance of 308 publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs). We observe that fast‐growing REITs tend to underperform slow growing REITs. However, we find evidence that the growth effect is significantly less negative for REITs selling at a premium to net asset value. In addition, we observe the asset growth effect only in the subsample of REITs that engages in equity issuance over the next 12 months. The combined evidence suggests contemporaneous equity dilution, which has not been considered in previous studies, may provide an explanation for the underperformance of fast‐growing firms.     

The Effect of Corporate Governance on Investment: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

This study investigates the relation between firms' investment choices and various governance mechanisms, using a sample of real estate investment trusts (REITs). We find evidence that the responsiveness of REITs' investment expenditures to their opportunities depends on their corporate governance structures. Within the set of governance mechanisms that we examine, we find particularly strong links between investment behavior and ownership. Specifically, we find that the investment choices of REITs are more closely tied to Tobin's q if they have greater institutional ownership or if they have lower director and officer stock ownership. These results are consistent with institutional owners monitoring the firm's investment policies as well as with high insider ownership allowing managers to follow their own investment agendas.     

Asset Price Persistence and Real Estate Market Illiquidity: Evidence from Japanese Land Values

We develop an overlapping generations model of the real estate market in which search frictions and a debt overhang combine to generate price persistence and illiquidity. Illiquidity stems from heterogeneity in agent real estate valuations. The variance of agent valuations determines how quickly prices adjust following a shock to fundamentals. We examine the predictions of the model by studying price depreciation in Japanese land values subsequent to the 1990 stock market crash. Commercial land values fell much more quickly than residential land values. As we would posit that the variance of buyer valuations would be greater for residential real estate than for commercial real estate, this model matches the Japanese experience.     

The Disciplining Effect of Concern for Referrals: Evidence from Real Estate Agents

Real estate agents rely on clients for referrals to generate future business; this article examines whether concern for referrals disciplines agents. We compare results for sellers who move to another area (and are less likely to provide referrals) with results for sellers who remain in the area (and are more likely to provide referrals). We find that moving‐away sellers’ houses have a higher sale rate, sell faster and sell for less (even after controlling for moving‐away sellers’ greater impatience). We also provide evidence that the disciplining effect of concern for referrals is stronger for agents who place a greater value on reputation. Finally, among sellers who are better at evaluating and monitoring agents, we see less of the high sell rate, low sale‐price effect.     

Incentive Compensation and the Likelihood of Termination: Theory and Evidence from Real Estate Organizations

We analyze two managerial compensation incentive devices: the threat of termination and pay for performance. We first develop a simple model predicting that these devices are substitutes: when termination incentives are low, optimal contracts provide stronger pay‐for‐performance incentives. We then use data from real estate organizations to provide two independent tests of the model’s central prediction. First, we use the fact that chief executive officers of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and general partners of Real Estate Limited Partnerships (RELPs) perform similar tasks, yet organizational features of RELPs ensure that the latter are much harder to terminate. Consistent with the model, we find that pay‐for‐performance sensitivity is much higher for general partners of RELPs, where the termination threat is less credible. Second, we use a recent cross‐section of REITs to show that in property types where it is expected to be more costly to replace managers, those managers have stronger pay‐for‐performance incentives.