Taxes and Pensions

Pension benefit rules depend on individual history far more than taxes do, and age plays a much larger role in pension determination than in tax determination. Apart from some simulation studies, theoretical studies of optimal tax design typically contain neither a mandatory pension system nor the behavioral dimensions that lie behind justifications commonly offered for mandatory pensions. Conversely, optimizing models of pension design typically do not include annual taxation of labor and capital incomes. After spelling out this contrast and reviewing (and rejecting) zero taxation of capital income based on the Atkinson‐Stiglitz and Chamley‐Judd results, this article raises the issue of tax‐favored retirement savings, a topic where the two subjects come together.     

AN OPEN SHOP, WAGE BARGAINING, AND TAXATION--A NOTE

In a social custom model of union membership with wage bargaining,higher levels of company taxes lower wages while having uncertainemployment effects. A higher marginal income tax rate increasesemployment. Changes solely in the level of income taxation,retaining marginal rates, have ambiguous wage and employmentconsequences. Endogenising union membership therefore does notalter the effects of tax changes in comparison to a right-tomanagemodel with exogenously fixed level of density.     

Capital income taxation under majority voting with aging population

An old person typically has a mixed attitude toward the welfare-state benefits, when they are financed by capital taxes, because her income derives mostly from capital. We develop a majority-voting model which focuses on the effect of aging on this dilemma. Surprisingly, the theory predicts that tax rates on capital income could actually rise as the population ages, even though older individuals would be expected to own more capital than the young and thus vote against higher taxes. We then confront the key prediction of the model with panel data for ten European Union countries, over the period 1970–1996. We investigate the asymmetric effect of aging on the taxation of capital and labor. The implications of the model are shown to be consistent with panel data. JEL no. H0, H5, P1     

Capital income taxation under majority voting with aging population

An old person typically has a mixed attitude toward the welfare-state benefits, when they are financed by capital taxes, because her income derives mostly from capital. We develop a majority-voting model which focuses on the effect of aging on this dilemma. Surprisingly, the theory predicts that tax rates on capital income could actually rise as the population ages, even though older individuals would be expected to own more capital than the young and thus vote against higher taxes. We then confront the key prediction of the model with panel data for ten European Union countries, over the period 1970–1996. We investigate the asymmetric effect of aging on the taxation of capital and labor. The implications of the model are shown to be consistent with panel data. JEL no. H0, H5, P1     

Human capital,innovation, and growth

This paper explores the interaction between human capital and innovation in the process of economic growth. Using a model of endogenous growth, we focus on how taxes and other policy instruments affect the incentives to invest in human capital. In contrast to many other growth models we find that the taxation of human capital has a substantial negative effect on its accumulation. This in turn reduces innovation and, consequently, the income growth rate. More surprisingly, other policies that are intended to stimulate growth may have opposing effects on innovation and the accumulation of human capital. For example, while subsidies to research and to intermediate inputs do have positive effects on innovation and growth, they lead to a lower stock of human capital, in the empirically relevant case when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is low.     

The Later You Pay,the Higher the k

This paper shows the importance of the age path (life-cycle timing) of any tax for the accumulation of capital in the economy. Income, consumption, and wage taxes differ in their age paths as well as their incentive effects. This paper studies how the differing age path of each tax affects the capital accumulation of the economy in an empirically calibrated life-cycle model. We investigate lump-sum “age” taxes and find in every case that the later the person pays tax, the higher the k of the economy. To analyze the life-cycle timing effect of conventional transactions-based taxes (income, consumption, and wage), we replace each tax with a lump-sum age tax that has the identical age path of tax payments over the life cycle. We find that the timing effect is quantitatively important and often causes the impact of a tax on capital accumulation to be very different from what would be predicted from the incentive effect.     

Rebalancing in China: A taxation approach

The rebalancing of the Chinese economy is analyzed through a heterogeneous taxation of various types of firms. Based on a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model, the paper applies tax reforms to raise consumption, reduce some firms' overinvestment (overcapacities) and maintain a high level of welfare.To rebalance consumption and investment, taxation may allow reallocating a part of the labor force to firms that are not overinvesting (via business taxes and social security contributions). Moreover, the correction of distortions in production factor costs (capital and labor) is necessary during certain reforms applied in the model; that is, on the one hand, higher credit costs for firms that face soft budget constraints (via financial transactions taxes) and, on the other hand, a catch-up of foreign firms' wages by domestic firms (via social security contributions).These tax reforms bring welfare benefits to households and stabilize the welfare reaction to productivity shocks. Another interesting result is that in this framework, the rebalancing of the domestic demand in China does not require the readjustment of the external financial position. Indeed, the aggregate savings rate remains high and the supply of domestic assets is reduced.Finally, another model proposes a heterogeneous taxation of consumption across home and foreign goods to enhance consumption.     

Age structure of the population in Belgium and social security

The effects of demographic aging and of various socioeconomic factors on the social security system in Belgium are explored. "Special attention is given to the impact of the ageing of the population on the pension problem. Based on a simple formula a series of percentages of taxation have been calculated as a function of shifts in the proportion of retired vs. active population and in the proportion of the average income vs. the average amount of pension. One of the conclusions is that the progressive ageing of the population will become the most significant factor in the growth of social expenditures."     

International mobility of capital,wage indexation,and the cost of policy mistakes under ambiguity: a CGE evaluation

In this paper we focus on the role institutions and structural parameters play in macroeconomic policy design and test the differential effects of tax policies on two structural parameters: the degree of international capital mobility and the rules of wage indexation practiced in the economy. We evaluate counterfactual changes in taxation in the Argentine economy using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model with unemployment, calibrated with 2006 data, showing that policy mistakes (diagnosis failures) are costlier when the degree of capital mobility is greater and the rules to determine salaries could amplify the losses. Among other taxes, we evaluate the choice of export taxation, historically one of the preferred revenue sources of Argentine governments. We discuss the choice of taxes that an optimistic and a pessimistic policymaker will make under Knightian uncertainty and find that, in the case of our CGE, an optimistic policymaker prefers to tax export goods, while a more pessimistic one tends to tax imports or non-tradable goods.     

International spillover effects of consumption taxation

This paper investigates the international spillover effects of a revenue-neutral increase in consumption taxes coupled with a reduction in wage taxes in a two-country open economy. Many economists feel that the consumption tax would be an improvement over the income tax. This paper provides counterexamples to the conventional wisdom. We show that conversion to a consumption tax may reduce capital accumulation and may transmit a negative externality to the rest of the countries in the world economy under certain conditions: endogenous labor supply and bequests.     

Income tax reform for a globalized world: The case for a dual income tax

Countries that are industrialized, or becoming so, must adopt tax systems that are capable of raising considerable amounts of revenue efficiently, equitably and with administrative simplicity, while at the same time coping with the competitive features of a globalized world economy. A component of that tax system will be direct taxation of households alongside general sales and payroll taxation. This paper addresses the role that capital income taxes should play in the income tax system. Arguments for the preferential treatment of capital income are summarized, and a case is made for adopting a schedular approach in which capital and labor income are taxed according to separate rate structures. The particular case of the dual income tax system used in the Nordic countries is advocated whereby capital income is taxed at a low, flat rate and non-capital income is taxed progressively. It is argued that this system best combines the objectives of a good tax system in an internationally competitive environment.     

Convergence,the “tax-state” and economic dynamics

Convergence, the “Tax State” and Economic Dynamics. — The paper analyses the welfare/efficiency relationship of taxation and empirically tests the relationship between taxes and economic dynamics for OECD countries. Since taxes are only one of the determinants of economic growth, in a first step the influence of other sources of or impediments to economic growth is analysed. This general model - which contains hypotheses about catching-up, the technological gap, human capital and inflation - is tested against a specific model in which the specific interest is in the role of taxes. For the group of the most important OECD countries taxation turns out to be growth-retarding.     

Long-Run Implications of Social Security Taxation for Growth and Fertility

This paper compares long-run implications for growth and fertility of four types of taxation for social security with positive bequests. A tax rise under lump-sum taxation enhances growth but lowers fertility, while other types of taxation do so under additional restrictions. A tax rise under consumption taxation is less likely to stimulate growth and to reduce fertility than under payroll taxation. A rise in an interest income tax raises fertility, reduces both savings and human capital investment, and hence is harmful for growth. The case with zero bequests is also discussed.     

Savings,pension rights and taxation

Summary The voluntary saving rate has declined in The Netherlands over the last thirty years. In this paper the increasing share of transfer income in total income, with a high propensity to consume, and the increase in collective pension schemes are simultaneously used to explain this development. Furthermore, the influence of taxes is modelled. The planning horizon of the representative consumer is treated as a parameter to be estimated. The planning horizon obtained (about 4.5 years) appears to be short compared to expected residual lifetime, implying rather small interest elasticities. The estimation results indicate that, in case the obligatory pension schemes are diminished, the representative consumer offsets the loss in pension benefits for 75 per cent by voluntary, additional accumulation of nonhuman wealth in the long run. The working of the model is illustrated by simulation experiments.I wish to thank two anonymous referees, Prof. J. Pen, G.M.M. Gelauff, J.J. Graafland, W. Vossers and other colleagues of the CPB for their helpful comments.     

Revenue Effects of Tax Facilities for Pension Savings

Many countries have tax facilities for pension savings. These facilities are often associated with the application of the cash-flow treatment of pensions: pension contributions are tax-exempt, capital income of pension funds is tax-exempt, and pension benefits are taxed, but usually at a relatively low rate. This paper investigates the revenue effects of a cash-flow tax regime for pension savings by full present-value calculations. A comprehensive income tax system is used as a benchmark. We present an empirical analysis for the Netherlands as a typical example of a country with funded pensions. Our calculations show that current taxation of pensions implies a major tax revenue loss. For the year 2003, we estimate a fiscal pension subsidy of 1.4% to 1.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Generational Accounting, Solidarity and Pension Losses

Summary The stock market collapse led to political tensions between generations due to the fuzzy definition of the property rights over the pension funds’ wealth. The problem is best resolved by the introduction of generational accounts. Modern consumption and portfolio theory shows that the younger generations should have the higher equity exposure due to their human capital. Stock market losses should be distributed smoothly over lifetime consumption by adjusting both current contributions and future entitlements. We present expressions for the substantial welfare losses involved in various practically relevant deviations from the optimal system. We are grateful to stimulating suggestions by Lans Bovenberg, Casper van Ewijk, Frank de Jong and by two anonymous referees.     

The Second Demographic Dividend as a Driver of China's Growth

As China's demographic transition enters a new stage, the “first demographic dividend” – the economic advantage resulting from demographic changes in recent decades – is bound to disappear permanently. China's future development will be characterized by an aging population. The “second demographic dividend” refers to new sources of economic growth derived from this later population change. This paper reveals major constraints caused by aging in China, which is characterized by a tendency to grow old before becoming rich. As the population ages, human capital improvement slows, labor force participation declines and consumption power reduces. This paper suggests taking advantage of a population “echo effect” to improve human capital at all ages, to enhance workers’ ability to benefit from employment, and to improve the labor participation rate of the elderly, which in turn would increase the income and social security of the aged. These measures are conducive to future economic growth and to the cultivation of the second demographic dividend.     

THE DEMAND FOR CAPITAL GOODS BY THE QUANTITY CONSTRAINED FIRM

THE firm is assumed to face parametric real wage rate and realrental on capital, and to perceive non-manipulable upper boundson its sale of output and purchase of labour services. Which,if either, of the rationing constraints will bind depends inpart on the firm's capital stock. The paper studies the responseof the optimal capital stock to changes in the parameters facedby the firm. We find that when only one of the rationing constraintsbind, a relaxation of that constraint increases the optimalcapital stock. As the output market constraint binds, the marginalrevenue product of capital has a discontinuity. The optimalcapital stock at this point is insensitive to small changesin factor prices, and rises for a small reduction in the labourmarket ration.     

Response by Adults to Increases in Cigarette Prices by Sociodemographic Characteristics

Cigarette excise taxes are widely viewed by health economists as an effective tool to reduce cigarette consumption. However, those opposed to increasing cigarette excise taxes often state that the taxes unfairly target certain segments of the population, notably the poor and minorities. Some of this opposition may have been fueled by a lack of understanding of how the tax will affect the health and welfare of various demographic groups of interest. This article provides guidance to policy makers by estimating price elasticities among adults by gender, income, age, and race or ethnicity. Women, adults with income at or below the median income, young adults, African-Americans, and Hispanics are most responsive to cigarette price increases. For example, adults with income at or below the median are more than four times as price-responsive as those with income above the median.     

Government budget,public-sector wages and capital taxes in a small open economy: A Hong Kong case

This paper examines the welfare implications of adjustments in public-sector wages and capital tax rates for a small open economy in a general equilibrium setting. The individually and jointly optimal wage and tax policies are derived and interpreted. Facing reductions in land sales and falls in foreign interest rates, a cut in public workers' pay is needed to make their wage comparable to the private sector and a hike in capital taxes is recommended for a budgetary consideration. Using a computable general equilibrium model for Hong Kong, we numerically evaluate the various optimal policies which not only confirm the theoretical results but also provide quantitative estimates of the optimal policy variables.