A discrete‐time hazard analysis of the exit of burley tobacco growers in Tennessee,North Carolina,and Virginia

This article examines the exit and survival dynamics of burley tobacco growers in Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia using a discrete‐time hazard logit model. The study also predicts the effects of selected farm and family characteristics on exit hazards, assesses the proportionality of their effects over time and their relative importance in explaining the variation in exit hazards among burley tobacco growers. Results provide the longitudinal progression of the probability of exiting the tobacco industry since the end of the federal tobacco program in 2004, and identify off‐farm participation, percentage of farm receipts from tobacco, tobacco price, educational level, and farm size as the most important determinants of the decision to exit the tobacco industry. Further, the effects of off‐farm participation and farm size on the exit hazards of burley tobacco farms are proportional over time while the effects of the percentage of farm receipts from tobacco and tobacco price are time variant.     

How drought affects the financial characteristics of Australian farm businesses

The financial performance of 240 farms in a drought‐affected agricultural region of Australia is analysed. The decadal study period included some years of widespread drought, as well as years with only subregional droughts or no drought. Some droughts created larger adverse financial impacts than others. Mostly, the more droughts farms experienced, the worse was their financial performance relative to farms within the same quantile of farm performance. Despite the incidence of drought, by the end of the decade, almost all the farm businesses were wealthier from increasing their farm size and becoming more crop dominant. Unexpectedly, consecutive years of drought had a significant positive effect on the operating profit per hectare and retained profit per hectare of farms in a majority of their respective quantiles. Many farms that experienced consecutive drought were forced to make structural changes, shifting away from livestock production towards additional cropping. These structural changes boosted farm performance over the decade. The incidence of drought affected some measures of farm performance differently whilst others were affected similarly. Understanding these metrics of farm performance and the structural changes underway in an agricultural region helps form a more complete view of drought impacts.     

An economic analysis of sheep flock structures for mixed enterprise Australian farm businesses

A strategic question facing many mixed enterprise broadacre farm businesses in Australia is, ‘What sheep flock size and structure is most profitable to complement the farm’s cropping enterprises?' This study answers this question for a typical large mixed enterprise farm business in a key production region of Australia. Whole‐farm bioeconomic modelling, combined with broad‐ranging sensitivity analysis, is used to examine the profitability of different sheep flock structures and sizes. We find the most profitable flock structure is to run Merino ewes and turn off finished Merino or first‐cross lambs. The profitable selection of these flocks is robust to commodity price variation but does require the farmer to give more attention to sheep management. The correct choice of flock structure greatly adds to farm profit. A farm based on cropping and a self‐replacing Merino flock using surplus ewes for first‐cross, meat lamb production earns 33 per cent more profit than a similar farm that runs a traditional self‐replacing Merino flock that emphasises wool production. Of far less importance than flock structure, as a source of additional profit, is to increase flock size or adjust cropping intensity.     

On the nature and magnitude of cost economies in hog production

In this article, we assess the impact of farm size on production cost and evaluate the marginal costs and margins by considering that input prices may change with the scale of production. By using French hog farm data, we estimate a system of equations including a feed price function, input demand functions, and an output supply function based on a technology approximated by a combined generalized Leontief‐Quadratic form. Our results suggest that the marginal costs are over‐estimated when the adjustment of the feed unit prices to a change in farm size is not controlled for. More specifically, the cost economies for large farms (enjoying the highest profits) arise primarily from lower feed prices, with technological scale economies having little impact. In contrast, farms with no hired labor exhibit technological scale economies and reach higher price‐cost margins compared to larger farms.     

Effects of subsidies in Russian dairy farming

This study develops a microeconometric model of specialized dairy farms in the Moscow region using panel data over the period 1995–2001. The model is used to analyze the role of subsidies on profit as well as input and output allocation. Theoretical conditions for short‐term profit maximization are not rejected by the data. Differences between farms allow for a fixed‐effect specification. The dairy producers in the region demonstrate a low responsiveness to market signals, but technology change becomes important. Labor, land, and livestock had low shadow prices. Although subsidies have a distorting effect on the input–output mix, this study shows they relieve the credit constraints on dairy farms and have an important positive influence on farm profit.     

Measuring and causes of inequality in farm sizes in the United States

This article examines the notion of farm size inequality expressed as sales inequality in the United States. The farm size index (FSI) is developed as a measure of farm size inequality. FSIs are calculated for the farming sector in all 50 states and large variation in farm size across the states and over time is determined. The largest FSIs are calculated for a number of Southern, Southwestern, and Pacific states. Increasing FSIs over time are observed in all states as well. The spatial and temporal (between 1987 and 1997) differences in FSIs are explained by running a pooled, cross‐sectional time‐series model. The most influential variables accounting for the differences have to do with the ownership structure, where a larger presence of individual and family farms relative to corporate farms and cooperatives leads to a lower degree of farm size inequality. Also, states and regions having relatively larger number of farms owned by minorities have higher FSIs. Shrinking opportunities in the agricultural sector relative to the rest of the economy, primarily services, are reflected in a declining share of agricultural sector state income in total gross state product (GSP). This in turn leads to an increase in the farming sector's FSI suggesting that only larger, more profitable operations are the likely candidates to pursue farming activities. Finally, grains farming regions have all lower degree of farm size inequality than livestock or fruits and vegetables regions. Profitable grains farming requires relatively large farm size and equipment investments, which leads to a relatively homogeneous structure of grains farms. A larger variation in the size of profitable farm operations is possible in fruits and vegetables and livestock. This leads to the existence of a large number of very small but still sustainable farms, and a relatively small number of large farms that capture most of market sales share.     

Driving Forces behind Exiting from Farming in Western Europe

This study examines the exit process of Western European farmers. Using a simple theoretical model of structural change, we examine empirically the impact of farm characteristics, macroeconomic conditions and policy intervention on farm exits during the 1990s. Econometric estimates using regional data for 110 regions in Western Europe indicate that exits from farming are strongly influenced by farm characteristics and policy conditions. In particular, exit rates are higher in regions with smaller farms and are closely related to production structures. Exit rates are lower in regions with more part‐time farming, high subsidy payments and high relative price increases for agricultural outputs, indicating that off‐farm income and government intervention slow down structural change in European agriculture.     

Traditional farm expansion versus joint venture remote partnerships

Traditionally, farms expand by buying out a neighbour. But might remote partnerships be a better way of expanding a farm business given projected climate change and price volatility? This question is addressed using farm business financial modelling. Representative farms at 27 locations in Western Australia are constructed to enable comparison of the value of buying out a neighbour versus expansion using geographically distant joint venture (JV) partners. The farm models consider economies of size, bulk purchase price discounts, the variability and correlation of returns associated with farm expansion, and impacts of climate change. Random selection of a remote partner generates little improvement in wealth; on average only 2.3 and 1.6 per cent, respectively, under current and projected future climate across all locations. However, there is large variation in wealth appreciation opportunities for each location and between locations. Preferred partnerships are a function of each farm's characteristics. Locations highly preferred as JV partners under current climate are similarly preferred partners under projected future climate. The main sources of additional wealth come from economies of size advantages, risk‐spreading benefits of combining geographically separated farms and bulk discounts. Farmers seeking business expansion will often benefit greatly from careful selection of a remote partner.     

A LINEAR PROGRAMMING STUDY OF FAMILY-RUN DAIRY FARMS IN NORTHERN IRELAND

The paper presents the results of a study in which multiperiod linear programming models were used to examine the probable responses of small and medium sized dairy farms in Northern Ireland to various policy, farm indebtedness and development options and to project consequent structural change in the dairy sector. The introduction of quotas has curtailed the considerable potential for expansion of output on these farms while having a less detrimental effect on farm profits and the survival of the smaller dairy herd than the price cut necessary to produce the same reduction in output.     

An Analysis of U.S. Aggregate Output Response by Farm Size

Past empirical evidence on supply response by size of farm in the U.S.A. provides no clear basis to conclude that supply elasticities vary systematically with farm size. In this paper, the central hypothesis that no systematic relationship exists between production response to price and size of farm is rejected. U.S. farms are disaggregated into nine economic size categories and own-price supply elasticities are measured for per farm and total agricultural output. Empirical results from this study suggest that supply response does vary systematically by farm size, with smaller farms exhibiting greater elasticities than midsized farms.     

Peasants and plantations in the Sri Lankan tea sector: causes of the change in their relative viability*

In contrast to the increasing trend in farm size found in most agricultural sectors, the absolute number of producers and relative share of total production from small farms growing green leaf tea in Sri Lanka have increased significantly over time. The boom in peasant production and the corresponding decline in plantations are due to the same general drivers explaining the increase in farm size elsewhere. Government programs and price effects that reduced revenue uncertainty and relative costs of production have enhanced the competitive position of small farmers relative to large estates.     

Production efficiency of Chinese agriculture: evidence from rural household survey data

A shadow-price profit frontier model is developed to examine production efficiency of Chinese rural households in farming operations. The model incorporates price distortions resulting from imperfect market conditions and socioeconomic and institutional constraints, but retains the advantages of stochastic frontier properties. The shadow prices are derived through a generalized profit function estimation. The shadow-price profit frontier is then estimated and an efficiency index based on the estimated profit frontier is computed and decomposed to household characteristics. Empirical results using data from China's Rural Household Survey for 1991 reject the neoclassical profit maximization hypothesis based on market prices in favor of the general model with price distortions. Farmers' resource endowment and education influence their response to the market restrictions, thus alter their performance in terms of efficiency. The estimated efficiency index ranges from 6% to 93% with a sample average of 62%. Households' educational level, family size and per capita net income are positively related to production efficiency. Households living in mountain areas or with family members employed by the government or state industries are relatively inefficient. Reducing market intervention, allowing right of use of farm land to be transferred among households, encouraging migration of excess farm labor, and promoting farmers' education will improve rural households' efficiency in agricultural production.     

Droughts and farms’ financial performance: a farm‐level study in New Zealand

We quantify the impacts of droughts in New Zealand on the profitability of dairy, sheep and beef farms using a comprehensive administrative database of all farms in New Zealand. For dairy farms, we found that drought events have positive impacts on dairy farms’ revenue and profit in the year of the drought. This effect is most likely attributable to drought‐induced increases in the export price of milk solids, as New Zealand is the market maker in this global market and almost all domestic dairy production is exported. All of these quantified impacts, however, are not very large, suggesting that, at this point in time, droughts have a fairly moderate impact on New Zealand dairy and sheep–beef businesses.     

Are Kansas farms profit maximizers? A stochastic additive error approach

Profit maximization is widely assumed as a behavioral objective in agricultural economics research. This paper applies deterministic and stochastic tests to examine adherence of a sample of Kansas farms to the profit maximization hypothesis. A modification of Varian's stochastic method is developed to account for farms that have zero netput. Results indicate that none of the farms satisfy the joint hypothesis of profit maximization and nonregressive monotonic technological change under the deterministic case. Results support the existence of nonregressive technological change during the study period for the sample of Kansas farms. Using a rejection criterion of 10% for measurement error in quantity data, most of the sample of Kansas farms (81% based on the additive error model and 92% based on the proportional error model) adheres to joint hypothesis of profit maximization and nonregressive monotonic technological change. The consistency with profit maximization is stronger for those farms that do not enter and exit in the production of an output.     

Understanding the Structure of Canadian Farm Incomes in the Design of Safety Net Programs1

The effectiveness of safety net programs in meeting their purpose depends implicitly on the nature of farm profitability distributions. This study provides an empirical characterization of farm operating profit distributions and assesses the implications for Canadian safety net programs. Pooled time series data from the Statistics Canada Tax Data Program and the Farm Financial Survey is queried across a range of farm types and provinces, with quartile distributions of Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) within four farm‐size categories analyzed. The results show that regardless of farm type or province, there is greater variation in operating profit within a sales category than there is across the sales categories, and that the range in operating profit increases with size, revealing some very profitable small farms and unprofitable large farms. Thus, the discussion of the social value of farm stabilization programs ought not to be focused on farm size alone. L'efficacité avec laquelle les programmes de protection du revenu atteignent leurs objectifs dépend implicitement de la nature des distributions de probabilités des fermes. La présente étude établit une caractérisation empirique des distributions du bénéfice d'exploitation agricole et évalue les répercussions sur les programmes de protection du revenu au Canada. Des données chronologiques tirées du Programme des données fiscales (PDF) et de l'Enquête financière sur les fermes (EFF) de Statistique Canada sont totalisées par type de ferme et par province, y compris des distributions par quartile du résultat avant intérêts, impôts et dotations aux amortissements (EBITDA) de quatre catégories de taille de ferme. Les résultats ont montré que, sans égard au type de ferme ou à la province, la variation du bénéfice d'exploitation au sein d'une même catégorie de ventes était supérieure à la variation du bénéfice d'exploitation observée entre les différentes catégories de ventes et que l'étendue du bénéfice d'exploitation augmentait avec la taille, révélant des fermes de petite taille très rentables et des fermes de grande taille non rentables. Par conséquent, la discussion sur la valeur sociale des programmes de stabilisation du revenu agricole ne devrait pas s'appuyer sur la taille de la ferme uniquement.     

Measurement of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture: economic implications for policy and agricultural producers*

If agriculture were to be included in Australia’s carbon price scheme, a key decision for government would be how to estimate greenhouse gas emissions. We explore the consequences of three different methods for measuring on‐farm emissions: national accounting methods, an amended version of those methods and use of best‐available local data. Estimated emissions under the three methods can vary widely; for example, on a case study farm in Western Australia, local data indicated 44 per cent lower emissions than did the national accounts method. If on‐farm emissions are subject to an emissions price, the impact on farm profit is large and varies considerably with different measurement methods. For instance, if a price of $23/t of CO2‐e applies then farm profit falls by 14.4–30.8 per cent depending on the measurement method. Thus, the choice of measurement method can have large distributional consequences. On the other hand, inaccurate measurement results in relatively minor deadweight losses. On‐farm sequestration through reafforestation may lessen the impact of an emissions price on farm businesses, although it will require a high carbon price to be viable, especially if sequestration rates are underestimated or low.     

How limiting is finance for Dutch dairy farms? A dynamic profit analysis

Accessibility to financial resources is considered a prevalent problem in the agricultural sector. We develop an approach to quantify the long-term opportunity costs of financial constraints in relation to peers who do not face any financial constraints. Using data on past financial performance, we assess creditworthiness and the size of an additional accessible bank loan to farmers. Combining this with data on reported expenditure, we determine the accessible finance. We quantify the opportunity cost as the forgone dynamic profit (intertemporal profit in current-value terms) from financial constraints. Using data envelopment analysis, we apply our approach to 264 specialised Dutch dairy farms for the years 2006–2017 and explore the potential impact of changes in finance provision for several scenarios. Our results show an increasing gap between frontrunners and other farmers, as the latter generate progressively less dynamic profit in comparison to their best peers. The gap between the dynamic profit of the average farm and that of its best peers from their production and investment decisions made over the span of 1 year grew from €40,040 in 2009 to €114,548 in 2017. However, the growth is not driven by insufficient access to finance. Financial constraints can only explain 6% of the forgone dynamic profit in 2009 and as little as 1% for 2017. The number of farms classified as financially constrained in comparison to their peers decreases in our sample from 44% in 2009 to 8% in 2017. This suggests that non-financial factors are driving the growing gap.     

Measuring the effect of farmland preservation on farm profitability

Purchase of development rights (PDR) programs have been created in 27 states to preserve farmland resources. These programs seek to advance several societal objectives, including the protection of farmland from development, retention of rural amenities, and promotion of the economic viability of farming. Using New Jersey farm-level data, this study evaluates whether participation in a state PDR program improves farm profitability. The propensity score matching method is used to correct for selection bias arising from the voluntary nature of these programs. No statistically significant profit differential is found between preserved and observationally equivalent unpreserved farms in our full sample of 4029 farms. When the analysis is replicated across different farm types, we find weak evidence that the profitability of preserved residential lifestyle/retirement farms is lower than that observed for their unpreserved equivalents. In contrast, we find that small farms (<$100,000 in annual sales) operated by individuals for whom farming is a principal occupation earn $414 to $436 more per acre in profit than their observationally equivalent unpreserved counterparts.     

Tracing the evolution of the aggregate U.S. milk supply elasticity using a herd dynamics model

The U.S. dairy sector is characterized by increasing volatility of milk prices, and consolidation in production as evidenced by declining number of dairy farms with an increasingly larger share of milk supplied from a small number of very large farms. Using aggregate national data, we build a mixed‐frequency herd dynamics econometric model of the U.S. milk supply that updates and substantially amends the model first proposed by Chavas and Klemme. We implement a dynamic residual‐based bootstrap technique that can be used in testing for changes in nonmarginal simulated long‐run supply responsiveness, and trace the evolution of long‐run milk supply elasticity from 1975 through 2010. Several papers in the past have suggested that long‐run supply elasticity increases with dairy farm size, which implies that increased importance of large farms would increase aggregate long‐run supply responsiveness. Contrary to this conclusion, we find a declining trend in long‐run supply elasticity from 1975 through 2005. Persistence of such a decline would be a major cause for worry, as ever larger price swings would be needed to equilibrate the market in face of demand shocks. However, we find that milk supply is becoming more responsive since 2005 both to milk and feed price changes. Increasing responsiveness to feed prices further justifies focusing the next generation of the dairy policy instruments on managing dairy profit margins rather than just revenue streams.     

Agricultural Policies and Structural Change in French Dairy Farms: A Nonstationary Markov Model

The aim of this paper is to gain an understanding into how agricultural policies have affected structural change in the French dairy sector. A nonstationary Markov model is estimated using a Generalized Cross Entropy approach. Results show that while the price of cow's milk encourages farm growth, direct payments and quota restriction favor small farms. The price signal is a key factor of structural change. As a result, higher milk prices may accelerate the trend toward the further growth of dairy farms. Settlement policy and technical change seem not to slow this trend.