DO THE PHASES OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE DIE OF OLD AGE?

The paper re-examines the issue of duration dependence in the Australian classical and growth business cycles in light of the somewhat surprising results obtained recently by Cashin and Ouliaris (2004). In so doing the authors use the multinomial logit regime switching modelling approach of Layton and Smith (2003). The paper also represents an extension of the earlier work on the issue undertaken by Bodman (1998); the key extensions being that the issue is framed within an explicit established business cycle chronology, a leading index is also included within the analysis, and the growth cycle, in addition to the classical cycle, is considered. Strong evidence of duration dependence is found for periods of recession within the classical cycle and for both phases of the growth cycle. Moderate evidence of duration dependency is also found for periods of classical cycle expansion. However, the evidence in this regard is significantly reduced once movements in the leading index are included in the analysis with its movements exhibiting strong power in predicting the termination of classical business cycle expansions. For growth cycles, duration dependence symmetry is found across both phases of the cycle.     

空中神鹰盛会珠海

天下珠海，蓝天盛会。两年一届的珠海航展留给了人们耳目一新的感觉。     

EARNINGS IN BRITISH REGIONS IN 1948

U ntil a few years ago, information on regional variation in earnings within Great Britain was almost entirely lacking, but this important deficiency in British statistics is now on the point of being remedied. Some of the recent Inland Revenue Reports give data on Schedule D and E income classified by region, and although their interpretation requires some care, they provide much valuable information. In addition, the 1948 Census of Production reports, unlike their predecessors, contain regional data on wages and salaries for a large number of trades.     

CHANGES IN DEMAND FUNCTION IN COURNOT OLIGOPOLY

Abstract.  The effects of change in the market (inverse) demand function are systematically analysed for Cournot oligopoly without product differentiation. The general comparative-static results are stated using the original data on firms' cost functions and inverse demand function. Three special models are examined in light of our results. The stability condition is shown to be insufficient for determinate comparative statics.     

城乡差异和人口流动中的收益与风险机制

本文根据城乡差异导致农村人口流向这一社会现象出发,利用社会收益与风险进行比较分析,表明城乡社会收益与风险的分配不均是人口流动的根源所在,通过人口流动这一再分配过程减少收益与风险梯度差,使城乡收益与风险的分配达到Pareto最优状态,从而不断推动我国城市化发展进程。     

中国农村劳动力非农就业的性别差异

中国农村劳动力的非农就业对促进农村经济发展,缩小城乡差距无疑具有积极的意义,同时非农就业的性别差异更是一个值得经济学家和社会学家关注的课题。本文运用微观数据,用Probit模型来研究中国农村劳动力就业的性别差异、影响农村劳动力非农就业选择的影响因素,以及各因素对不同性别农村劳动力非农就业的不同影响。