基于主成分分析的上市公司财务危机预警模型研究

本文以我国上市公司为研究对象,选取2009年被ST的上市公司作为财务危机样本组,共61家, 同时选取与财务危机组同行业,资产规模在10%差异之内的61家非财务危机上市公司作为配 对样本,共计122家(61组)上市公司的财务数据进行研究。从这61组中随机选取31组配对样 本作为学习样本组,用来构建财务困境预测模型,另外30组样本作为检验样本组,用来检验 预测模型的有效性。     

中小板上市公司财务预警与实证分析

本文以我国深沪两地上市公司A股为研究对象,采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,从基础指标中确定了5个指标作为模型指标(模型自变量),以这些样本企业发生财务危机前一年和前两年的数据资料为基础,建立了我国上市公司的Logistic模型.该模型的回代结果显示:在企业发生财务危机前一年,Logistic模型的回代准确率94.2%;在企业发生财务危机前两年,Logistic模型的回代准确率86.5%.最后,本文又选取了38家中小板上市公司(2004年上市),利用发生财务危机前一年的Logistic模型对其进行财务预警.     

基于现金流量的上市公司财务危机预警研究

本文以2010年沪深股市124家ST和非ST公司为样本,建立基于现金流量的财务指标体系,运用统计方法筛选指标,然后构建Logistic回归财务危机预警模型。研究结果表明:模型预测准确率达到了83.9%,其中上市公司的自由现金流和股权现金流对财务危机的预测影响很大。     

我国制造业上市公司财务预警研究

随着我国经济体制的不断改革,企业面对日益激烈的竞争,其陷入财务危机甚至破产的风险也越来越大。上市公司作为我国证券市场的基石,其质量好坏与证券市场的稳定与发展息息相关。而占据我国上市公司一半以上的制造业公司,更是国民经济的重要组成部分。证监会实施特别处理机制以来,先后有上百家公司被ST,其中大部分为制造业公司。因此,研究制造业公司的财务预警模型,以便于提前预测是否会发生财务危机,具有重大意义。本文在借鉴该领域前人的研究成果上,以国内制造业上市公司为样本,以是否被ST作为判别财务危机的标志,采用多元判别分析法,根据上市公司发布的2008年财务数据,建立了这类公司的财务预警模型。同时使用2010年数据对模型进行了检验。本文结论表明,我国证券市场的数据是有效的,所建立的模型能够得到较高的正确率。     

基于RS-LSSVM制造业上市公司财务危机预警模型

针对制造业上市公司财务危机影响因素多、 各影响因素之间相互关联、 样本信息采集困难等问题, 本文结合财务危机理论构建了上市公司财务危机影响因素指标体系, 基于粗糙集理论融合最小二乘支持向量机方法, 提出了制造业上市公司财务危机预警模型, 预警了未来 ３ 年的财务危机情形, 对比了该模型与传统的最小二乘支持向量机的预测效果。 结果表明, 粗糙集融合最小二乘支持向量机能够有效提高预警效率, 反映各控制因素对上市公司财务危机的影响, 计算结果与样本值拟合精度较高, 满足实际应用要求。     

企业财务危机预警指标筛选探究

选择合适的财务指标来描述预警模型对提高预测的精度至关重要。运用显著性分析和因子分析法,对企业财务危机预警的备选指标进行筛选,并选择了76家上市公司为样本进行实证研究。通过两次筛选,最终得到由7个预警指标组成的全面互斥的财务危机预警指标体系。为进一步的财务危机预警评价提供参考。     

基于Logistic回归模型的建材业上市公司财务预警研究

在当前房地产调控政策下,我国建材业上市公司面临着巨大的财务危机。论文对24家建材业上市公司2009年、2008年的财务指标进行了基于Logistic回归模型的财务预警实证分析,并利用上述模型及2010年的财务数据对样本公司2011年的财务状况进行了预测,继而给出了财务风险应对策略,以期我国建材业上市公司能够走出财务困境,走上健康发展的道路。     

房地产上市公司财务风险识别及处置措施研究

论文以我国沪深两市8家房地产上市公司为研究样本,采用上市公司发生财务危机前2年的实际财务数据,选用主成分分析方法建立了财务风险识别模型,进行财务风险识别,并提出了房地产企业财务风险控制以及财务风险处置措施,如降低资产负债率、合理安排收款计划、加快房地产的变现等,为房地产企业进行财务风险管理提供参考。针对该类公司财务风险管理方面存在的一些问题提出了相应的解决对策,即调整资产负债结构、加强对外担保管理等。     

民营化公司盈余质量的下降趋势分析

体制因素下的价值转移与再分配假说和监管理论提供了民营化公司盈余质量下降的理论基础.利用1999～2005年154家民营化上市公司以及民营化公司及其配时的221家上市公司样本.通过实证检验发现:比起民营化之前的国有上市公司以及同行业同规模同时上市但没有民营化的国有上市公司,民营化公司的盈余质量有显著下降的趋势.但这种下降趋势不具有持续性.稳健性检验也支持我们的结论.这种结论弥补了民营化效应的研究中关于盈余质量研究的不足.     

内部控制有效性与企业绩效的关系研究——来自上海A股上市公司的经验证据

近年来内部控制在我国越来越得到重视,但是内部控制作为一项控制措施是否提高了企业经营效率还缺乏实证证据。为了研究内部控制的有效性与企业绩效的相关关系,本文通过以2010年沪市A股的976家上市公司为样本,对企业内部控制的有效性与企业绩效的关系进行实证检验。结果表明我国上市公司的内部控制制度的建立和完善确实对企业价值有较大的促进作用。     

创业板上市公司基于新指标视角的发展能力评价模型及应用研究

本文以创业板355家上市公司为研究样本,结合创业板公司自身特点,从基本指标和发展指标视角设计创业板公司发展能力评价模型,基本指标包括营运能力指标、盈利能力及偿债能力指标,发展指标包括创新研发能力、企业管理技术阶层和全体职工基本素质水平,企业发展前景和企业创利能力等。依据所建模型采用因子分析法对创业板公司的发展能力进行综合评价,并根据因子分析结果将样本公司分为发展能力高低两组,分别从所属行业、资本结构、公司业绩因素、公司创新能力影响因素方面对两组样本公司进行对比分析。研究的主要结论：（１）创业板的355家样本公司总体发展能力较弱,主要原因是我国创业板上市公司两级分化现象较为严重,其中创新能力、营运能力和行业发展能力相对较差。（２）我国创业板上市公司中第一大行业信息技术行业集中度较高并且成长持续性效果较好,而第二大行业新材料与新能源行业成长持续性较差,究其原因是我国新材料与新能源是新兴起行业,行业总体水平较差,需要加强研发。     

Using IT Effectively in R&D Management23—25 September 1996, IMD, Lausanne, Switzerland

The commercialization of biotechnology requires very serious and intense research capabilities. The pharmaceutical industry has been one of the early exploiters of biotechnology because of the existence of such capabilities. This feature has been observed worldover and the literature is replete with information on how firms have evolved various strategies to meet this requirement. The present paper is an attempt to assess the R&D capabilities in the pharmaceutical companies in India in the context of biotechnology commercialization. A study was made of the R&D capabilities of 33 companies. These companies represent 3 categories of the Indian industry: purely medicinal chemistry based pharmaceuticals; diversified (both medicinal chemistry and biotechnology); dedicated biotechnology companies. Discriminant analysis was performed (i) to understand the distinctiveness of the three groups of companies and (ii) to understand the characteristics of their R&D capabilities. With respect to eight of the ten chosen parameters like R&D intensity, skill intensity, linkages, output of R&D, size, age, R&D manpower as a proportion of total manpower and number of skilled R&D employees, the three groups are observed to be distinct from each other.     

Changes in Wage-setting Arrangements and Trade Union Presence in the 1980s

In this paper we detail the results of a retrospective survey of changes in trade union and wage-setting arrangements in the 1980s for a sample of 558 UK companies. Our key findings are as follows. (1) Complete derecognition of unions in a firm was rare even in firms with low trade union density. (2) Partial derecognition in multi-plant firms was more common. Some 13 per cent of companies with recognized unions in 1984 had had at least partial derecognition by 1990. (3) Large falls in trade union density within a firm have also been rare, though small but observable declines have been commonplace. (4) The coverage of the closed shop has substantially declined, and this decline has been most marked in the last five years. Around one-quarter of firms with recognized unions in 1990, however, still had closed-shop arrangement for at least part of their work-force. (5) There has been no clear decline in the prevalence of multi-unionism or multiple bargaining units. (6) There has been a significant move away from national/industry-wide bargaining, towards negotiations at the individual company or more often the establishment level. (7) In the absence of collective bargaining there have been clear moves away from wage-setting by formal external links, such as wages councils and multi-employer agreements, and even away from worker consultation towards more managerial discretion. (8) In deciding wage settlements, managers are increasingly influenced by company performance and less by multi-employer wage settlements.     

Rewarding the employee inventor and the Patents Act (1977)

The new Patents Act which came into force on June 1st 1978 contains radical provisions on the remuneration of employee inventors who are now under certain conditions entitled to a share of the benefits flowing from any outstanding inventions they may make. The reaction of industry has in general been unfavourable and as a questionnaire survey of a sample of British industry taken mainly from the Times Top 1000 companies suggests, there appears to have been some lethargy in taking adequate steps to meet the requirements of the new Law. This short note outlines the changes with regard to the reward for employee inventions, examines the possible effects of the new legislation, and discusses the actions that companies should make and are making.     

Moderating the impact of global sourcing on inventories through supply chain management

In recent years, companies have paid growing attention to supply chain management at a global level. With regard to the upstream part of the supply chain, the need for better suppliers, the research into specific competences and concerns related to international competition have forced companies to improve their ability to cope with suppliers located in different countries around the world. The literature suggests that the geographical distance of suppliers should create higher inventory levels primarily because of longer and more uncertain lead times. However, as this paper aims to demonstrate, companies can limit this effect by means of specific investments in the supply chain and in their relationships with suppliers. The empirical analysis is based on data from the last edition of the International Manufacturing Strategy Survey (IMSS). The results show that companies performing global sourcing have invested in supply chain management (SCM) and that this has been helpful in keeping their inventories under control.     

The impact of forecasting on companies’ performance: Analysis in a multivariate setting

Over the years, practitioners and researchers have devoted their attention to forecasting techniques and methods that can be adopted to improve companies’ performance. However, forecasting techniques alone are not enough since companies should also consider several other issues associated with forecasting process management, e.g. how companies collect and use information on the market, or how the forecast is used in different decision-making processes. It is also important to understand the existence of interaction effects between these different forecasting variables, as they could determine a positive additional synergistic effect on companies’ performance. This paper aims to investigate what relevant forecasting variables should be considered to improve companies’ performance, and whether some forecasting variables can interact and influence performance with a synergistic effect. Analyses are conducted by means of data collected by the Global Manufacturing Research Group (GMRG). Data from a sample of 343 manufacturing companies in 6 different countries demonstrate that when companies intend to improve cost and delivery performances, they should devote their attention to all the different forecasting variables. In addition, the results found reveal the existence of positive interaction effects between the collection and use of information on the market and the other forecasting variables, as well as the existence of a negative interaction effect between the adoption of forecasting techniques and the use of forecasts in several decision-making processes. These results have important implications for managers as they provide guidance on how to lever on the different forecasting variables to maximize companies’ performance.     

Bankruptcy risk and the effects of conservative policy for 1979–81

This paper considers the effects of the first two years of the current Conservative government as reflected in the change (if any) in the characteristics of bankruptcies amongst quoted companies. It applies a probit model to a sample of bankrupt and non-bankrupt quoted companies drawn from the period 1976–81 a sample subsequently broken up into Labour and Conservative subsamples. Using return on assets, size, gearing, the ratio of equity cash flow to sales, the ratio of direct exports to sales, and industry growth, as explanatory variables of bankruptcy risk and adopting a relativistic view of bankruptcy, the paper finds that the change from a Labour to a Conservative government in 1979 seems to have had no effect on the way in which relative performance, at both the firm and industry level (as measured using the six variables mentioned above) translates into bankruptcy risk.     

The drivers of patent transactions: corporate views on the market for patents

In recent years, the proactive management of patents and their exploitation through licensing out and sales transactions have been enhanced by the development of intermediaries and trading platforms. This paper first investigates the main drivers of companies' decisions to engage in patent licensing and sales; then, it examines how improvements in the marketplace for patents and more intense involvement of patent brokers might impact the factors hindering the development of patent transactions. The study's findings are supported by the results found in the scientific literature and by evidence from a survey conducted on a sample of companies involved in patent transactions.     

全网营销我先行

全网营销开始变得有些复杂。以前,敢于吃螃蟹的品牌企业一般都是采用"淘宝开店+淘宝外分销"的路线,两者泾渭分明,梳理起来也容易。但如今,包括京东、当当、苏宁易购、亚马逊、库巴以及重组后的腾讯电商等独立B2C开始做大,人人都在谈开放平台,卯足了劲大举招商,大有群英战淘宝的势头。     

关联担保、隧道效应与公司价值

本文以1998—2004年765家对外提供关联担保的上市公司为样本,考察了关联担保程度与企业价值的关系。同时截取2004年的225个样本公司,采用Logistic回归,检验了非正常关联担保发生概率与股权结构、自由现金流以及上市公司所在地区信贷分配市场化程度的关系。最后,根据关联担保对象,以1998—2004年仅发生一种类型关联担保的390家公司为样本,研究了不同类型关联担保对企业价值的影响差异。我们发现,①关联担保程度与企业价值显著负相关,关联担保程度越大,对企业的价值侵害程度越高。②企业财务杠杆和自由现金流量水平越高,发生非正常关联担保的相对概率越大,而最终股东持股比例越高,上市公司所在地区信贷分配的市场化指数越大,发生非正常关联担保的相对概率则越小。③不同类型的关联担保对企业价值的影响程度是有差异的,上市公司向控股股东提供关联担保对企业价值的损害程度最大。