Comment on “σ: The long and short of it”

I comment on some of the issues discussed by Robert Chirinko (Chirinko, R.S., 2008. σ: The long and short of it. Journal of Macroeconomics 30 (2), 671-686). I also offer some additional evidence and discuss the theoretical implications of the empirical findings regarding σ.     

The LeChatelier principle: the long and the short of it

Summary. Using ordinary calculus techniques, we investigate the conditions under which LeChatelier effects are signable for finite changes in parameter values. We show, for example, that the short run demand for a factor is always less responsive to price changes than the long run demand, provided that the factor of production and the fixed factor do not switch from being substitutes to being complements (or vice versa) over the relevant range of the price change. The absence of a sign change in the complementarity/substitutability relation holds under conditions that are considerably more general than supermodularity of the production function.     

The α-beauty contest: Choosing numbers, thinking intervals

We present a model for the α-beauty contest that explains common patterns in experimental data of one-shot and iterative games. The approach is based on two basic assumptions. First, players iteratively update their recent guesses. Second, players estimate intervals rather than exact numbers to cope with incomplete knowledge of other players' rationality. Under these assumptions we extend the cognitive hierarchy model of Camerer et al. [Camerer, C., Ho, T., Chong, J., 2003b. A cognitive hierarchy model of one-shot games. Quart. J. Econ. 119, 861–898]. The extended model is estimated on experimental data from a newspaper experiment.     

The profit rate: where and how much did it fall? Did it recover? (USA 1948–2000)

This study is devoted to the empirical investigation of the gravitation of profit rates among industries around a single value in the United States since World War II. The framework of analysis is that developed by classical economists and Marx, and used in many contemporary studies. The gravitation of profit rates around a single value results from the mobility of capital seeking a maximum profit rate. A preliminary concern is to determine the field in which this mobility of capital is likely to occur. A segment of the economy is excluded because of its deficient capitalist nature. After this exclusion, it appears that the profit rates of industries do tend to gravitate around a common value. An important finding of this study is that this gravitation is not observable within a subset of industries, such as Transportation or Public Utilities, which utilize very large amounts of fixed capital in comparison to employment or output.     

Comment on “The endogenous aggregate elasticity of substitution for a small open economy”

This note applies the approach of Miyagiwa and Papageorgiou [Miyagiwa, K. and Papageorgiou, C., 2007. Endogenous aggregate elasticity of substitution. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 31, 2899–2919] to provide simple frameworks for endogenizing the aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor for a growing small open economy.     

人力资本外流与经济增长--对人才外流损失的计量分析

本文在新古典增长模型的基础上,引入人力资本和移民净流出量两个变量,采用比较静态的分析方法,计量分析平衡增长路径上人才外流的收入损失.由于外流人才富含人力资本,根据给定参数计算,即使少量的高素质人才外流,也会带来巨大的经济损失.如果不考虑人力资本的正外部经济效应和国家教育投资损失,仅考虑劳动力和人力资本等生产要素流失所带来的经济损失,根据2002年的数据估算,我国当年的国内生产总值因人才外流就损失约92.2亿元.     

现代经济增长与教育发展的数学模型解析

人力资本是现代社会生产的决定因素.人力资本提高可使社会生产效益指数增长.各个学龄阶段的生均教育投入,都应随着科技知识的指数增长而增长.我国走科技先行、可持续发展的道路,2020年的高等教育毛入学率应达到50％,实现高等教育的普及化,公共教育经费占GDP的比重要在2012年达到4％的基础上继续提高,并在2020年达到4.6％至4.7％,以带动全社会的教育投入占GDP比重提高到7％.     

The foundations of trust: macro and micro

This comment on Beugelsdijk's (2006) critique of trust and itsmeasurement argues that it misses the mark, and that there isneither a theoretical nor an empirical foundation for thinkingthat the macro and micro foundations of trust or its measurementare different from each other. Generalised trust is more thana simple illusion hiding behind institutional structures.     

中国经济增长的特征、可持续性与潜在增长率估算:一个综述

在本文通过对中国经济增长的表现特征、可持续性和潜在增长率估算三方面的理论综述,进一步论述了中国经济增长的发展脉络,并在此基础上提出研究中国经济增长理论尚需改进的空间.     

现代保险功能:一般理论与中国特色

随着社会经济的发展、科技的进步和人们风险意识的提高,保险作为一种经济保障制度,在保障经济、促进改革、稳定社会、造福人民方面发挥了重要功能,被誉为社会、经济的"安全网"、"润滑剂"和"稳定器".在现代市场经济条件下,如何认识保险功能,既是一个基本理论问题,也是一个重大实践问题.经济补偿、资金融通和社会管理功能等共同构成现代保险的功能体系.具有中国特色的保险功能拓展除了一般性动因外,还存在人口老龄化、经济转轨等特殊原因.     

The effect of economic freedom on growth revisited: New evidence on causality from a panel of countries 1970–1999

Does economic freedom cause economic growth or does causality run in the reverse direction? And do all the constituent parts of economic freedom exert a causal impact on economic growth or do some freedoms matter more than others? In order to answer these questions, this paper conducts a series of Granger causality tests using panel data for the period 1970–1999. In addition, the paper discusses a number of model specification issues, e.g. lag-length selection and the importance of intervening variables. The results suggest that some (but not all) aspects economic freedom affect economic growth and investment. On the other hand, there is only weak evidence that growth affects economic freedom.     

The inequality–growth nexus in the short and long run: Empirical evidence from China

This paper argues that the conventional approach of data averaging is problematic for exploring the growth–inequality nexus. It introduces the polynomial inverse lag (PIL) framework so that the impacts of inequality on investment, education, and ultimately on growth can be measured at precisely defined time lags. Combining PIL with simultaneous systems of equations, we analyze the growth–inequality relationship in postreform China, finding that this relationship is nonlinear and is negative irrespective of time horizons. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 654–667.     

The allocation of volatile aid and economic growth: Theory and evidence

We analyse, both theoretically and empirically, the growth effects associated with two components of volatile foreign financial assistance: ‘directly productive’ (or ‘tied’) aid and ‘pure’ aid. We find that scenarios in which aid can hurt the recipient's growth rate emerge only in cases where foreign aid is volatile. As a result, we conclude that it is only in conjunction with the presence of aid variability that aid allocation determines whether foreign aid hurts or promotes long-run growth.     

Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions

Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.     

The effects of local government investment on economic growth and employment: evidence from transitional China

Based on the panel data of 28 provinces in the year of 1987-2001,this paper examines the effects of the local government investment on economic growth and employment.The empirical result shows that the local government investment plays a significant positive role in economic growth and emplovment.However,while the proportion of local government investment to GDP had a remarkable rise after 1998.the elasticity of local government investment on economic growth declined,which shows that there is a hig room for raising the efficiency of local government mvestment.Moreover,the empirical examination shows that although local government investment had positive effect on employment,the elasticity had a decrease after 1994 when the tax-sharing system reform was put into practice.This shows that the positive role of local government investment on emplovment is also limited.This paper argues that the role of local governments as investors must be weakened,and local governments of different levels should lessen direct economic intervention and concentrate on public regulation.     

Financial innovation,economic growth,and the consequences of macroprudential policies

We leverage a ‘catch-all’ measure of financial innovation—research and development spending in the financial sector—to assess the net relationship between financial innovation and economic growth and evaluate the influence of macroprudential policy on this relationship. Using a panel of 23 countries over the period of 1996–2014, our results demonstrate a net-positive relationship between financial innovation and gross capital formation. We find no evidence of a net-negative impact of financial innovation on economic growth, challenging the popular and political stigma surrounding financial innovation. We also find little robust evidence of macroprudential policy influencing the relationship between financial innovation and economic growth. Our results support a functional approach to the regulation of financial innovation, which improves the intermediation process, leading to increased capital formation.     

The sustainability and transition of economic growth in China：from a perspective of factor structure

After more than 20 years＇ high speed growth, the sustainable growth of Chinese economy faces serious limitation of resources and factors now and in the future. In order to maintain the economic growth. China has to trans-form the way of economic growth, Based on the analysis on the related theories of economic growth and the structural transformation in factors of production, this paper proposes that the transformation of the economic growth way has to impel the optimization and the promotion of the utilization structure of factors of production. Finall.v, based on the analysis of the necessity to change the pattern of economic growth, this paper proposes＇ the strategic measures to promote the continuous economic growth and the transformation of patterns of economic growth.     

Public spending and growth: The role of government accountability

This paper examines the role of institutions in the nexus between public spending and economic growth. Empirical results based on a newly assembled dataset of 80 countries over the 1970–2010 period suggest that particularly when institutions prompt governments to be accountable to the general citizen does public capital spending promote growth. Taking account of the type of financing for this spending, we show that the growth-promoting effect under an accountable government appears to prevail for various financing sources, including a reallocation from current spending, an increase in revenue, and a rise in the budget deficit. However, government accountability does not seem to play a key role in the growth effects of current spending.     

Risk‐Off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: The Role of Capital Flows

During episodes of increased global risk aversion, or risk‐off episodes, safe haven currencies such as the Swiss franc tend to appreciate. The immediate impact of a risk‐off shock is an increase in net private inflows to Switzerland, mostly driven by a reduction in Swiss residents’ net purchases of foreign debt securities and reduced foreign exposure by Swiss banks. Given that the bulk of capital movements related to risk‐off episodes is driven by decisions of Swiss residents, capital flow management policies that discriminate based on the residency of the investor (capital controls) are not likely to be effective at reducing the impact of risk‐off episodes. However, prudential policies that limit leveraging or foreign exposure by Swiss banks may diminish the volatility of capital flows during risk‐off episodes.     

On the predictability of knowledge formation: The tortuous link between regional specialization trade, and development

This paper examines the relation between industrial mix, trade, and regional productivity growth. For this purpose, a dynamic model of the open economy with diversified sectoral knowledge formation and incomplete interregional knowledge diffusion is constructed. The theoretical framework is first used to show the consequences of increasing globalization on regional growth. It is then applied to German regional data in order to investigate whether there is evidence of generally specified patterns of knowledge formation. It emerges that some causal relationships are robust for the case of German regions but cannot be exploited by economic policy in general.