国际资本流动理论的最新发展及其对中国的启示北大核心CSSCISSCI

近年来,随着国际资本流动规模的不断扩大,国际资本流动理论有了许多新的发展。本文从国际资本流动的动因、影响及其与政策制度的关系三个方面介绍了这些理论的发展,并结合中国资本流动的实际状况,分析了它们对我国的启示。     

货币危机理论及其最新发展——基于国际资本流动逆转的理论分析框架

货币危机理论是当前国际经济学研究热点之一,学者围绕货币危机发生的内在机制逐渐形成和发展了三代货币危机模型.但是这些模型大多从微观经济主体出发,探讨货币危机发生机制,对当前因国际资本流动逆转所引起的货币危机缺乏解释力.本文拟从国际资本流动的宏观视角出发,运用数理模型推导汇率与资本流动内在关系表达式,利用国际资本流动模型构建资本流动逆转下的货币危机理论分析框架,深入探讨了杠杆投资和去杠杆化在货币危机发生机制中的作用.     

国际资本流动及我国外汇管理政策研究

一、国际资本流动理论几个观点自18世纪下半期起,国际经济和贸易进入发展的快车道,国际资本流动开始渐渐摆脱国际贸易成为一个独立的经济现象。从亚当·斯密(AdamSmith)开始,不少经济学家从各种角度对国际资本流动的原因展开了解释,对于资本在国际间流动的原因众说纷纭,以下为几类主流观点:     

国际资本流动理论回顾：一个文献综述

国际资本流动会对一国的经济产生重要的影响。文章通过梳理从古典经济学到现代经济学200多年关于国际资本流动的成因理论,并从利率、汇率因素,政治因素,资产组合因素,货币政策因素以及国际货币危机因素五个方面对国际资本流动理论进行分类总结,通过对不同学说成因的阐述,得出国际资本流动理论的研究展望：金融衍生工具将会成为国际资本流动的主要载体;国际资本流动的参与者将发生较大变化;对新兴国家资本流动的研究。     

国际资本流动对我国金融经济的效应

在全球经济一体化背景下,国际资本流动性显著增强、规模飞速膨胀,尤其是金融后危机时代,国际资本流动凸显不确定性和集中性.本文主要研究国际资本流动的发展,如何有效利用国际资本以发展我国经济的同时避免对金融经济带来的不稳定因素具有重要的理论和现实意义.     

关于我国国际资本流动影响因素计量模型的构建和分析

本文对我国国际资本流动影响因素进行了比较深入的计量分析。第一部分分析比较和概括总结了国际学术界关于国际资本流动影响因素的现有理论的研究成果,总结了影响国际资本流动的一般因素。第二部分在参考第一部分研究的基础上,构建了我国国际资本流动影响因素的模型,对利率、汇率、通货膨胀率、开放度以及政策变量等因素对我国国际资本流动的影响进行了计量分析,并提出相关政策建议。     

论托宾税及对我国资本流动管理的改进

随着金融全球化的加速和金融深化的发展,国际资本流动越来越频繁,我国愈发受到国际资本流动的影响,尤其是国际短期资本的影响。因此,有效地监管国际资本流动,特别是国际短期资本流动是当前我国外汇管理面临的一项紧迫任务。本文从托宾税的提出、发展及实践出发,通过分析我国外汇管理在应对国际资本异常流动中存在缺陷,探讨了托宾税在我国应对资本异常流动时的效用,认为托宾税能有效地改进我国的资本流动管理。     

国际资本流动研究的新视野——《国际资本流动的经济分析》介评

国际资本流动研究的新视野———《国际资本流动的经济分析》介评张也男由中国人民大学财政金融学院副院长陈雨露副教授所著的《国际资本流动的经济分析》（中国金融出版社１９９７年９月第１版）一书，是以国际资本流动为专题研究对象的理论专著。全书以国际资本流动对经...     

加密交易对传统资本流动管理的挑战与启示

作为当前跨境资本流动领域的前沿研究方向,加密交易的发展对传统资本流动理论和实践都产生了巨大影响,但现有研究在法律定性、实证分析等方面皆处于相对初级阶段。论文结合理论与实践,从法律层面对数字时代兴起的这类使用加密技术等新兴手段的交易模式,以及与之对应的资本流动进行了定性。从理论角度分析了加密交易发展对传统资本流动管理的意义和潜在影响机理；全面梳理了当前关于加密交易和资本流动的理论和实践研究成果,探讨了下阶段加密交易对资本流动研究的挑战,并对未来研究前景进行展望。现有研究启示,境内监管部门应尽快从监管层面明确加密交易的法律定性,积极推进境内关于加密交易与资本流动管理的理论研究和规则制订,从微观领域着手构建相关数据统计和监管框架,充分发挥数字人民币国际使用的优势,主动向其他国家分享最新研究进展、输出可复制的成功经验,并基于以上优势积极参与进而主导相关国际监管标准和规则的制订,切实参与全球治理体系改革。     

国际资本流入与货币政策独立性之间关系的实证研究

随着金融全球化的不断发展,国际资本流动趋于自由化,成为发展中国家密切关注的重要问题,国际资本流动的总量和结构变化对各国经济乃至全球经济的影响是广泛而深远的.在三元悖论的框架下,汇率稳定性的要求和资本市场的逐渐开放,会使得一国货币政策的独立性和有效性受到影响.本文重点分析了我国国际资本流动与货币政策之间的关联问题,通过理论分析国际资本流动对我国货币政策的影响,利用定量分析方法说明了国际资本流入与我国货币政策的关联性,结果证明两者之间具有长期的协整关系;最后,对实证结果进行分析说明.     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.     

Commodity financialization and sector ETFs: Evidence from crude oil futures

We investigate the diversification benefits of energy assets in the setting of commodity financialization using data on crude oil futures and Sector ETFs (SPDRs). Correlations between commodities and financial assets increased during the post-Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA)/commodity bull cycle period, resulting in lower benefits of diversification. However, we find that conditional correlations between crude oil futures and sector ETFs meaningfully increased only since the 2008–09 financial crisis. The results therefore suggest that the financial crisis, rather than CFMA regulation, explains changes in the diversification benefits of commodities. Moreover, we find that oil futures returns are less correlated with SPDRs than with the S&P index. Thus, energy futures, and crude oil in particular, offer the potential for diversification benefits in sector-style investing.     

Dutch accounting in Japan 1609-1850: isolation or observation?

The trading station or factory maintained by the Dutch East India Company (VOC) was Japan's sole window on the Western world during most of the Tokugawa period (1600-1868). While many aspects of the factory's role in Dutch/Japanese cultural exchange have been researched little is known in the West of the accounting at the factory. This paper considers the possibility that double-entry bookkeeping employed by the Dutch may have been diffused to the Japanese. The available evidence is synthesized after considering the accounting system in the Dutch factory.