National Income Accounting and Public Policy

Modern national income accounting was designed in the early 20th century for the purpose of providing improved indicators about the performance of the economy so that government policy makers could better control the economy. The way that performance is measured affects the types of policies used to try to accomplish policy goals. Two attributes of national income accounting are analyzed for their effects on economic policy. First, government production is included in the national income accounts at cost, rather than at market value as private sector output is measured. This biases policy toward a larger public sector. Second, output is measured as a homogeneous dollar amount. This biases policy toward focusing on increasing quantities of inputs and outputs in the production process, rather than on innovation and entrepreneurship, which are the true engines of economic progress. Economic policy could be improved by focusing less on national income as an indicator of policy, and more on the underlying processes that foster economic progress.     

SOCIAL MATRICES AND INDICATORS IN THE TRADITIONAL AFRICAN ECONOMY

This paper discusses the relevance of the conventional national accounts systems to the traditional African economy and concludes that they contribute little because they omit certain economic activities and fail to recognise the reciprocity between social and economic activities. Social accounting is thus more relevant. Lack of statistical data may make it necessary to conduct special surveys and in some cases a tribe or village or economic region may be a more useful accounting unit than a nation. A modified system of accounts is suggested, based on the frame work of the four consolidated accounts of the SNA. It provides linkages to many more nonmonetised activities. Other linkages would be provided through supporting tables emphasising social activities and transfers. A system of transactor accounts in matrix form is also suggested. In the case of communities smaller than the nation several external transactor sectors could be included. It is recognised that the problem of evaluation of social activities and a number of economic activities remains to be solved and it is concluded that "time spent" may be the only common unit or value to equate such activities.
The final section deals with investment in human resources and proposes a balance sheet approach to indicative planning. This exercise would be related to demographic projections in several variants. Other factors to be analysed dynamically would be education and health status, public finance and, ultimately, distribution of income and wealth since it is noted that the process of monetisation is having an impact which may have important welfare implications.     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTING AS A PLANNING TOOL IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: LESSONS OF EXPERIENCE

This paper is directed at the following question: How far is the national accounting system as developed in the industrially advanced countries and recommended by the United Nations applicable and useful to countries at an early stage of development? In order to examine the suitability of this tool, the nature of economic policy decisions and their dependence on macro-statistical constructs are analysed, the emphasis being on planning as actually undertaken in the field or going to be undertaken in the near future and not on planning activities as possibly ought to be attempted. The conclusion reached, based upon personal experience in Africa, the Caribbean area, Brazil and Venezuela, both as “producer” and “user” of data, is that planning is mainly limited to the public sector. Comprehensive plans, prepared with the assistance of foreign consultants, were generally forgotten soon after publication, the driving force behind those plans being external pressure by bilateral donors and international agencies and propaganda-prestige motives. Real over-all economic management or consistent medium term planning of the whole economy never appeared to be an important factor in the decision-making process, possibly because those concepts are far too abstract and do not have short-term impact. The role of national accounting should therefore be limited to the provision of a general framework and factual support for public sector planning activities. In practice the United Nations system has been found far too complicated and ambitious, not sufficiently development planning oriented, and not suitable to the limited statistical resources available in the developing countries. The paper recommends the publication of several detailed “case studies” in national accounting, hoping that those studies might help to identify types of accounting systems appropriate to different existing constellations. In the meantime a drastic scaling down of the United Nations system should be undertaken; we should try to equate demand and supply of relevant information. In the final part, the paper considers planning requirements (timetable and flexibility, information required for a general assessment of the economy, crucial role of the publicsector, relative precision), statistical requirements (resources, data available, priorities, international reporting) and decision-makers’requirements (compactness, simplicity, background information, wishes of external aid donors) and recommends, as an interim measure, a simplified system of national accounts consisting of eight main tables.     

U.S. INCOME, SAVING, AND WEALTH, 1929—1969

The objective of this paper is to present income and expenditure accounts, accumulation accounts, and the asset side of the wealth accounts for the U.S. private national economy in current and constant prices. These accounts are integrated with the production and factor outlay accounts for the U.S. private domestic economy in current and constant prices given in our earlier papers. Taken together, these accounts constitute a complete accounting system in current and constant prices for the private sector of the U.S. economy.
Our complete accounting system incorporates a new concept of the standard of living, defined as the ratio of the quantity index of gross private national expenditures to the quantity index of gross private national consumer receipts. Our concept of the standard of living is similar but not identical to our concept of total factor productivity. Changes in the private standard of living reflect both changes in total factor productivity and changes in the proportion of the total product consumed in the public sector.     

COMPTABILITE NATIONALE A PRIX CONSTANTS ET A PRODUCTIVITE CONSTANTE

The problem of national accounting “at constant prices” is in fact a problem of comparability of time series, as changes in the price structure preclude any direct comparison of economic flows. If such accounts are established they will make it possible directly to compare the same flow at two different times in the economy as a whole, and this without leaving the influence of other flows out of account. This makes it possible both to synthesize and to undertake analytical comparisons. The accounts could then be used for the study of time series, for projections or for structural studies (e.g. the mechanisms underlying the changing pattern of income distrubution). The first part of this report sets out to study the main problems of compiling accounts at constant prices and to examine what conventions should be adopted. The second part of the report considers how productivity gains can be explicitly shown in the national accounts. The proposed study plan restores the symmetry between price and productivity. As in the accounts at constant prices, gap variables are introduced to measure productivity gains. These variables can be interpreted in terms of surplus; the concept of surplus used here, however, is not the one adopted for the accounts in constant prices, but its dual. Setting up an accounting system “at constant productivity” therefore makes it possible to complete the information provided by an accounting system “at constant prices.” These two systems can of course be integrated: this leads to the introduction of the concept of an accounting system “at constant prices and constant productivity.” Such an accounting system makes it possible to show, in the same accounting framework, the respective contributions of price changes and improved productivity to the gains realised by the different economic agents. It therefore gives a complete picture of “transfers” between the agents. At the same time, the data on price and productivity can be integrated with each other.     

INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC ACCOUNTING: FRAMEWORK FOR A SNA SATELLITE SYSTEM

National accounts have provided the most widely used indicators for the assessment of economic performance, trends of economic growth and of the economic counterpart of social welfare. However, two major drawbacks of national accounting have raised doubts about the usefulness of national accounts data for the measurement of long-term sustainable economic growth and socio-economic development. These drawbacks are the neglect of (a) scarcities of natural resources which threaten the sustained productivity of the economy and (b) the degradation of environmental quality from pollution and its effects on human health and welfare. In the present paper, the authors attempt to reflect environmental concerns in an accounting framework which maintains as far as possible SNA concepts and principles. To this end, the accounting framework is used to develop a "SNA Satellite System for Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting" (SEEA). Environmental costs of economic activities, natural asset accounts and expenditures for environmental protection and enhancement, are presented in flow accounts and balance sheets in a consistent manner, i.e. maintaining the accounting identities of SNA. Such accounting permits the definition and compilation of modified indicators of income and expenditure, product, capital and value added, allowing for the depletion of natural resources, the degradation of environmental quality and social response to these effects. A desk study of a selected country is used to clarify the proposed approaches, to demonstrate their application in future country studies and to illustrate the quantitative effects of the use of modified concepts on the results of analysis.     

ACCOUNTING FOR THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

This paper seeks to set out in some detail an accounting structure for the public sector of developing countries which will provide the information essential for development planning. The public sector is of course of special importance in planning because of its sheer size and its pivotal position for altering the contours of the entire economy. Yet the information available for this strategic area often falls far short of what is needed, and also of what could be provided with more effort.
The paper is divided into a number of sections, the first two of which are concerned with demarcating the public sector and with the nature of the accounting framework proposed. These are followed by sections dealing with the distinction between development and other expenditures; the need for separate financial information; public enterprises; the grouping of expenditures according to the purposes served; and income distribution. A final section touches briefly on some of the data problems involved in implementing the system. In addition, a full set of accounts for the public sector and its components is appended.     

INTERACTION BETWEEN NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC POLICY

An important application of national accounts is in the formulation of socio-economic policy. This paper starts out with a discussion of the current situation in the Netherlands. Subsequently, it identifies several universal trends (more micro-oriented policy formulation, globalization, the rise of the flexible service economy and the increasing intertwinement of economic, social and environmental policies) and outlines how the national accounts might be adapted and extended so as to enhance its role as the core information system for policy formulation at the macro-and meso-level.     

Some reflections on the 1968–93 SNA revision

The 1968 System of National Accounts (SNA 68) represented an important milestone in national accounting. In providing a more detailed structuring of the economy and integrating a correspondingly more relevant system of basic, producer and purchasers' prices by commodities and industry sectors, it helped lay to rest the early schism that developed between Keynes and Tinbergen over the question of the legitimacy of empirical economic modeling. The system was readily embraced by the advanced countries of Western Europe because it responded directly to the contemporary political imperatives of development planning and the need for economic forecasting models. But a large part of the non-Western "free world" encountered almost insurmountable difficulties in the full implementation of the system and became quickly bogged down in the quagmire of inter-industry statistics and valuation problems. Nancy and Richard Ruggles pressed for a revision providing workable solutions that would make the system more adaptable to the policy needs and statistical capacities of the majority of UN member countries. What actually happened took very much longer to reach fruition than was ever intended. The SNA 93 now represents the "gold standard" for national accounts, covering every aspect of economic activity. It is a masterpiece of conceptual coherence. Its encyclopedic character allows analysts and practitioners alike to dip into its voluminous pages for reasoned answers to why certain valuation questions and estimation procedures should be dealt with in a particular way. But SNA 93 remains a formidable document and it is not the operational data friendly framework that the Ruggles initially had envisaged.     

Environmental–Economic Accounting: Progress and Digression in the SEEA Revisions

The 1992 Earth Summit and its message of sustainable development drove the launching of a System for integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting, the SEEA. Since then, sustainable development and the SEEA have given way to green growth and green economy indicators in the latest 2012 Summit. A lengthy revision process has now produced a curtailed “SEEA central framework.” The new framework focuses on expenditures for environmental protection and resource management, and stocks and flows of “economic” resources; both are covered by the conventional national accounts. Environmental degradation, notably from pollution, is left to “experimental” ecosystem accounts. Further revision of the SEEA should reverse this retrenchment from integrative environmental–economic accounting. A comprehensive satellite system, rather than a limited statistical standard, might put the SEEA back on the policy agenda.     

An Operative Framework for Total Hicksian Income Measurement: Application to a Multiple-Use Forest

A methodology for estimating total hicksian income in multiple-use forests is presented. The approach consistently incorporates commercial as well as non-commercial economic values and enables the measurement of national accounting aggregates taking into account variation in man-made and natural capital. Innovative solutions are developed (i) for the estimation of non-market values, such as recreation, where an attempt to determine exchange values has been made simulating markets, (ii) for timber, where standing timber valuation methods have been extended to cover uneven stands, and (iii) for carbon fixation valuation, where only permanently fixed carbon after 1990 has been taken into account. The methodology is applied to a multiple-use pinewood in the Guadarrama mountains, near Madrid (Spain). Timber, cattle grazing, hunting, recreation, carbon fixation and conservation values are measured and integrated in the accounting system, using primary microeconomic data from the case study. Results indicate the importance of non-commercial income, which accounts for 51% of the total income, and the social relevance of the analysed forest, implying that only 31% of the total income generated is appropriated by the forest owner.     

THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

After an introduction setting out the general state of work on the national accounts in the Middle East the author considers the principal uses of national accounts statistics in less developed countries. The first group of uses discussed is in connexion with the measurement of growth and the making of international comparisons. The author is of the opinion that in many cases the primary statistical series are so weak that the fact they they are combined together into a series called national income or gross domestic product lends to them a significance which they do not really possess. The real problem is to improve the quality of the primary series. A second use of national accounts statistics is in connexion with fiscal and budgetary policy. In the statistically advanced countries this is one of the most important uses but in the less developed countries budgetary policy has not yet reached a level of sophistication which would call for the use of national accounts data. Moreover, the time factor involved in assembling accurate national accounts estimates militates against their effective use for short term forecasting. The author considers that the most important use for national accounts statistics is to provide a framework for development planning. The United Nations system is not altogether appropriate for this purpose. It grew up primarily as a system for recording income flows but in development planning one is concerned equally with commodity flows with a great deal of attention being focussed upon intermediate products. The proposals of the working group of African Statisticians for an adaptation of the S.N.A. to African countries represents a most important advance in this respect. In the final section of the paper the author advocates a broader definition of capital formation to include developmental expenditure which is not properly defined as fixed capital formation. Education expenditure is cited as an example. It is suggested that in the national accounts it would be desirable to operate with gross concepts. However, the growth of the capital stock is obviously important in less developed countries and it is suggested that statistical techniques be devised to measure it directly wherever possible. Finally, attention is drawn to the ambiguities and weaknesses in the concept of residence as used at present in the S.N.A.     

Natural resource accounting for Indian states — Illustrating the case of forest resources

Our main objective is to set out and apply a SEEA-based methodology to reflect the true value of forest resources in India's national and state accounts. We establish that a “top-down” approach using available national databases is both feasible and desirable from a policy perspective. In this paper, we address four components of value creation in forests: timber production, carbon storage, fuelwood usage, and the harvesting of non-timber forest products. The results of our analysis suggest that prevailing measures of national income in India underestimate the contribution of forests to income. The income accounts of the Northeastern states in particular are significantly understated by these traditional (GDP/GSDP) measures. We are also able to identify some states which performed poorly in the context of our sustainability framework, reflecting natural capital losses due to degradation and deforestation. Our results highlight the need to integrate natural resource accounting into the national accounting framework in order to generate appropriate signals for sustainable forest management and for the conservation of forest resources which are widely used by the poor in India, as well as being significant stores of national wealth.     

A vertical social accounting matrix of the U.S. economy

Abstract

This article presents an adaptation of the square social accounting matrix used in economic planning and programming to the rectangular or vertical transaction matrix used in post Keynesian monetary economics. The objective is to obtain a simple and intuitive framework to organize macroeconomic data in terms of the main institutional sectors of the economy, showing how production, distribution, demand, and financing are inter-related. The article presents the social accounting matrix of the U.S. economy as an example and use it to analyze the trends in net lending and household net income since 1960.     

PROBLEMS OF DETERMINING AND MEASURING THE RELIABILITY OF THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: HUNGARY'S EXPERIENCES

Economic realities can be described in national accounting only by certain approximative means and presumptions; therefore they cannot be measured with absolute accuracy. However, because of their great importance these investigations must fulfil as far as possible the reliability required for the economic control and planning of the national economy, in accordance with predetermined concepts and methods. The reliability of national accounting is favourable in Hungary, as they are based mostly (92 percent) on the bookkeeping data of enterprises, cooperatives and institutions. The bookkeeping system is uniform in all economic organizations, in conformity with central regulations, and it takes into account the demand of computations for national accounting. Despite these favourable conditions lesser or greater contradictions can be found in the national accounts every year. The absolute measure of the differences is not significant; however, if compared to the annual increase it results in uncertainty of 15 percent. The uncertainty is reduced by the fact that the sign of differences is the same every year. The author classifies the causes of uncertainty in national accounts into four groups: 1. problems of the time shift of the connected economic processes and of their accounting; 2. effect of the enterprise interests; 3. inadequacy of methodological regulation; 4. inaccuracy of data surveys and processing. The study deals with the special factors of inaccuracy occurring in constant price accounting. Inaccuracy of the most important aggregates, for instance that of the volume index of the national income, comes to 0.5-0.7 percent which results, in the case of a yearly 5 percent “real” increase in the index, in reliability limits of 10 to 15 percent. In the concluding part of the study the author points out that in Hungary the unexplored contradictions are not shown as “statistical discrepancy” but they are included in the various aggregates on the basis of considerations discussed in the study.     

Anomalies in green national accounting

We “extend” standard arguments for greening the product side of the national accounts to the income side of the accounts and turn up an anomaly. For an economy with oil use, no entry for oil income, a supposed primary factor, appears in the income side of the national accounts when the depletion of natural capital is accounted for on the product side of the accounts. We resolve this issue by applying an income definition developed in the theory of national accounting. This, however, leads to another anomaly on the income side of the national accounts.     

Ecological pricing and economic efficiency

There is a need to accurately account for the contributions of environmental assets to the overall economy. Such accounting would permit policies that allow protection of important natural resources and aid the analytic process to determine an accurate basis for a sustainable economy. The aim is to develop an accounting framework for ecology that is sufficiently consistent with the economic framework that the two can be fruitfully combined. With appropriate definitions of the flows, the two systems can be connected into a common framework. No single measure of the system productivity and efficiency can be given for the combined system, however, until the ecosystem metabolism can be converted into economic terms. This could be done with a series of economic valuation techniques. Ecological prices could then be estimated and a single measure of ecological economic output could be given. With the net combined system input and output now in common terms, a technical system efficiency measure can logically be proposed. Because human activity inevitably involves dissipation, such emissions would now have a monetary price. Because such emissions are irrecoverable, the total output of the combined system is greater than it is under the current definition, giving rise to a technical system-wide efficiency measure.     

USE OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FOR A SHORT-TERM ECONOMETRIC MODEL: 1954–1966

A quarterly macro-econometric model of Japan's postwar economy has been constructed for the period 1954–1965 FY on the basis of standardized quarterly national income accounts. The model is designed for facilitating short-term economic forecasting and formulating adequate fiscal and monetary policy. Longer-term factors such as labor mobility, technical progress, etc., were also considered in the model.
The model consists of fifty-three equations related to most of the macroeconomic variables in both money and real terms, and the equations were estimated in principle by the limited information maximum likelihood method. Principal exogenous variables related to policy instruments are government expenditures including transfers, parameters of tax functions, interest rate, and prices and fares controlled by the government, etc. In formulating the model, non-linear specifications were used whenever found necessary.
Results of our testing on its predictive capability indicated fairly satisfactory performances for our observation period and also for 1966 FY. Multipliers related to fiscal and monetary policy were also obtained, indicating the dynamic characteristics of the Japanese economy, in particular, represented by dynamic business fixed investment, as compared with corresponding multipliers of the U.S. models.
Although the model is exploratory and to serve as a core for a more disaggregated "Master Model," the usefulness of the model for our purposes and the workability of our quarterly national accounts data for model-building have been recognized. The quarterly data, however, still remain to be improved especially in regard to consistency between income and expenditure and integration with flow-of-funds accounts.