Can Price Incentive to Smuggle Explain the Contraction of the Cocoa Supply in Ghana?

From the early 1960s to the early 1980s, the officially recordedoutput of cocoa in Ghana declined by 60%. During the 1983–95Economic Recovery Programme, however, the official output ofcocoa doubled. Although these developments have inspired muchempirical research, most of the studies have been unable toexplain the medium-term persistence of cocoa output in remainingbelow its estimated capacity level. The paper argues that theprice incentive to smuggle can explain as much as one-half ofthe observed decline in official output from its trend and thesubsequent recovery. A co-integration analysis and a dynamicerror-correction model of cocoa supply support the analysis.     

基于一致许可值的供应链合作收益分配研究

供应链联盟通过合作企业协调一致的行动来降低整个供应链的运营成本,公平合理的利益分配机制是供应链联盟持久存在和稳定发展的重要基础之一。考虑两竞争制造商通过共同零售商销售产品的两级供应链系统,本文分析了供应链成员各种可能的联盟形式,采用一致许可值对联盟合作收益进行分配,并与Shapley值法进行比较分析,只有当替代率较小时这两种收益分配才具有稳定性。     

证券营业部利润敏感性分析

证券徽利时代，集约化经营大势所趋，其所要求的持续优化成本管理与利满弹性分析，已成为券商经纪业务的重要发展战略，营业部利润影响因素较为复杂，受证券市场交易总量、市场占有率、佣金费率、营业费用，经纪人提成占比等多种因素影响，本文在此侧重进行利润敏感度的量化实证分析，以期对经纪业务的成本优化与产品定价有所裨益。     

Agricultural Supply Response in Tanzania: Has Adjustment Really Worked?

Tanzania has come a long way in her market‐oriented reforms of the past fifteen years, but the performance of agriculture has been less than satisfactory. This paper estimates supply elasticities for individual crops as well as for commodity aggregates (cash and food crops) in order to investigate whether this performance is due to a lack of response on the part of farmers or on other factors. The results suggest that farmers often respond as predicted to price incentives, but that structural features of the agricultural sector prevent the improved incentives being translated into high agricultural growth. La Tanzanie a, ces quinze derniêres années, parcouru un long chemin en matière de mise en ?uvre de réformes axées sur le marché. Pourtant les performances dans le domaine agricole sont loin d’être satisfaisantes. Le présent article évalue les élasticités de l’offre pour chaque culture ainsi que pour les agrégats de denrées (cultures de rente et cultures vivrières) afin de déterminer si cette piètre performance est due à un manque de réaction de la part des agriculteurs ou à d’autres facteurs. L’article semble suggérer que la réaction des agriculteurs aux mesures d’incitation par les prix est souvent conforme aux attentes, mais que certaines caractéristiques structurelles du secteur agricole empêchent ces mesures d’incitation plus efficientes d’engendrer une croissance agricole forte.     

Sulawesi's Cocoa Boom: Lessons of Smallholder Dynamism and a Hands-Off Policy

The rapid expansion of cocoa production on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi over the last decade surprised the world, not least because it came mainly from smallholders This paper examines government policies that have affected the subsector, and identifies issues it faces. The study concludes that the following factors contributed to the expansion, the availability of suitable land; low production costs; a highly competitive marketing system (a result of the government s policy of limited intervention), relatively good transport infrastructure, favourable macroeconomic policies, and smallholder entrepreneurship. It is particularly important that Indonesia s government left cocoa marketing and distribution free of many of the interventions applied to other commodities. Because of the competitive marketing system, the farmgate price of cocoa in Indonesia is very high relative to the export price Issues that must be addressed if cocoa is to develop further include product quality, the ‘adding-up’ problem, pest control and VAT.     

农村公共产品供给中政府职能分析

在农村公共产品供给中,政府作为宏观管理者的作用是无可替代的.但是,在现实经济活动中,政府的职能未能充分发挥,致使目前农村公共产品供给中存在许多问题.所以,根据我国的实际情况,通过合适的途径,充分发挥政府在农村公共产品供给中的作用,才能促进农村经济的快速发展.     

中国商业银行盈利分析

本文的主要目标是考察影响中国商业银行盈利水平的决定因素问题。研究银行业间绩效的差异多大程度上由银行内部因素决定，外部环境因素对银行机构的绩效是否存在显著影响。在此目标下，本文选择银行资产利润率为银行盈利水平的测度变量，分析银行机构的个体特征变量、宏观经济变量和金融结构变量对银行盈利的影响。     

Dynamics of Money Market Interest Rates in Ghana: Time-Frequency Analysis of Volatility Spillovers

As the second longest practicing inflation targeting economy in Africa, it is of interest to investigate the degree to which policy interest rate influences other money market rates so as to gauge the overall effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in Ghana. This study evaluates the degree of connectedness among money market rates and also determines the most dominant money market rate(s) in Ghana. The basic finding is that the monetary policy rate has a low-to-moderate influence on volatility dynamics of other money market rates in Ghana across historical time-interval and time-frequency domains. This is a reflection of a generally weak capability of policy interest rate to drive other market rates in Ghana. Both monetary policy rate and Treasury bill rate are net transmitters of shocks, while interbank, lending and saving rates are net receivers of shocks in the money market. However, the Treasury bill emerges as the largest shock transmitter in the money market, across all forecast horizons and analytical domains. The lending rate is the largest shock recipient in the money market, largely from the Treasury bill rate which suggests ample evidence of fiscal dominance in Ghana. The study accentuates the exigency for monetary and fiscal policies to expeditiously address the domestic structural bottlenecks, especially in the financial sector and the fragile fiscal profile, in order to strengthen policy transmission in Ghana.     

MEGA与全球供应链:变化、响应与反作用

全球供应链的发展在近二十年已经深度改变了世界经济格局,它对经济治理与国际规则都提出新的要求。目前,WTO等现有多边体制无法跟上这些新要求和新发展。只有一些谈判中的大型区域协定(MEGA)能够一定程度地响应和满足全球供应链的新需求。另一方面,这些MEGA也在试图重塑封闭的区域供应链和加强主导国家的控制,这在一定程度上与现有供应链集中与分散的趋势既存在重合也存在冲突。MEGA可能从战略控制、优惠排他、规则溢出三方面对全球供应链产生重大影响。     

农民专业合作经济组织的效益成本分析——以四川省仁寿县文宫枇杷协会为例

随着农业的进一步发展,家庭分散经营因土地规模过小而效益不高的问题日渐突出.在我国市场经济和农业比较效益低的情况下,分散经营的农户经营规模过小,很难有效地参与市场竞争.于是,从节约交易费用出发,寻求通过交易的联合,形成规模效益,使内部交易费用小于外部交易费用,便产生了各种专业合作经济组织(简称专合组织).专业合作经济组织,是市场化取向改革和农业弱质性特点的必然结果.通过专合组织可以实现小规模经营农户间的联合,从外部扩大农户的生产经营规模,降低交易成本,提高农产品的竞争力.本文以四川省仁寿县文宫枇杷协会为例,从降低交易成本的角度来研究专合组织对农民收入增加的贡献.     

开放经济中的Lucas供给函数与通货膨胀倾向

文章首先在Lueas（1972,1973,1976）工作的基础上将Lucas供给函数扩展到了开放经济中。得到的一个主要结果是开放经济中的Lucas供给函数。作者利用这一函数以及Barro和Cordon（1988）框架重新考察了开放经济中的通货膨胀的动态不一致问题。在运用开放经济中的Lucas供给函数后。作者在开放与通货膨胀问题上得到了一个相比Romer（1993）等学者较为一般的。在解释实证结果上更加有力的结果。这一结果一方面证实了Romer等人证实的在不发达国家中存在的开放与通货膨胀之间的负相关关系。另一方面。该结论还说明了为什么在发达工业国家在实证上看不出同样的负相关关系。     

Smallholder Adoption of Tree Crops: A Case Study of Cocoa in Sulawesi

Tree crops play an important role in the Indonesian economy. A large share of these crops is grown by smallholders, most of whom have not been assisted in any way by government policies. In order to assess the future potential for tree crops, it would be useful to know what factors determine smallholder tree crop adoption. This paper uses survey data from Sulawesi to assess the role of such factors as education, land ownership and information in explaining the adoption of cocoa, a new tree crop introduced into the region in the late 1970s.     

开放经济条件下的最优产业政策——横向与纵向的利润转移分析

本文分析当一国进口中间产品并出口最终产品时的最优产业政策。在我们的模型里，本国和外国企业在最终产品市场上进行古诺或伯特兰竞争，他们从完全垄断的第三国企业进口中间产品。假设中间产品提供商先决定中间产品的价格，然后下游企业决定减低成本的投资规模和最终产品的产量。最优的产业政策要综合考虑水平利润转移和垂直利润转移的影响，本国政府应该对研发投资补贴还是征税取决于投资的相对回报、技术外溢程度和最终产品的差异性；我们还发现一个特殊的技术外溢值，当中最优的产业政策一定是征税，而这个值又受最终产品的差异性影响。