经济学实验室研究方法论述

实验经济学作为一种研究方法正在加剧改变经济学的研究范式,正在为越来越多的经济学相关领域所借鉴,经济学已然成为一门实验性科学.然而,无论是研究方法还是研究内容.经济学实验与其它学科实验存在明显的不同.科学的经济学实验室控制是开展实验经济学研究的前提,是获得有效实验数据的基础.有鉴于此,本文重点从经济学实验室研究方法的角度,针对性地介绍如何设计实验,如何进行实验结果汇报以及在实验研究中应该注意的问题.     

Duplicating and Pricing Contingent Claims in Incomplete Markets

The paper studies the problem of pricing contingent claims in the situation where the constraints imposed on an investor's portfolios are important. There are two types of rule of constraint: under a rigid rule, an investor must strictly limit his portfolios inside the constraint; under an elastic rule, an investor pays a penalty when the constraint is violated. The central problem of pricing a contingent claim is to determine the initial investment required to duplicate the contingent claim. The following results are obtained: (i) under elastic rules, the cost to duplicate a contingent claim exists and is unique;(ii) this cost depends nonlinearly and convexly on the contingent claim;(iii) the cost under rigid rules resulting from passing the penalty to infinity is also a nonlinear and convex function of the contingent claim. Owing to this nonlinearity, the cost of duplication may be or may not be the nonarbitrage price of the contingent claim; this depends on how the market organizes the production of contingent claims. The conclusion that the cost of duplication is a convex function of the contingent claim provides an explanation for why the service of providing contingent claims is often a highly profitable business. The main mathematical tool in the analysis is backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). In fact the cost to duplicate a contingent claim is the solution of a BSDE in which the contingent claim is the terminal value.     

Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Incomplete Markets

I undertake a quantitative investigation into the short run effects of changes in the timing of proportional income taxes for model economies in which heterogeneous households face a borrowing constraint. Temporary tax changes are found to have large real effects. In the benchmark model, a temporary tax cut increases aggregate consumption on impact by around 29 cents for every dollar of tax revenue lost. Comparing the benchmark incomplete-markets model to a complete-markets economy, income tax cuts provide a larger boost to consumption and a smaller investment stimulus when asset markets are incomplete.     

资本市场的实验经济学方法论研究

随着金融市场理论研究和实践检验的不断发展,资本市场的许多基础理论受到了极大的挑战,与现有理论相悖的异象不断涌现。新近兴起的实验经济学为人们研究资本市场提供了一条更为有效的途径。本文分析了实验方法在资本市场研究中的利与弊,介绍了部分资本市场实验的设计过程,并应用该方法分析了风险与收益、资本市场的效率、市场泡沫的产生和破灭、CAPM理论,以及交易制度等。文章指出,在资本市场中运用实验方法进行研究,具有可控性、可比性以及可重复性等优点,为我们对于资本市场诸多理论进行检验提供了可能。在资本市场实验的设计中,我们不但需要考虑实验的各种交易制度,还需要考虑到被试人员的选择、交易资产的确定以及市场信息的设计等很多问题,只有对这些问题进行全面地考虑,才能保证实验结果的可信度,进而为我们对于各种金融理论的检验提供可能。     

Some Economics of Integrated and Segmented Markets

For the purposes of the discussion in this paper, whether markets are integrated or segmented is endogenous and is determined by the interaction of demand parameters, tariffs, transportation costs, and arbitrage. Given certain restrictions, it is shown, in equilibrium, that policymakers choose tariffs to segment markets. The effects of trade liberalization (reducing all tariffs to zero) in an endogenous market structure framework are determined and compared to the existing literature. The results differ substantially, highlighting the importance of explicit modeling of costly arbitrage in imperfectly competitive models.     

不完备偏好理论及其应用综述

本文在不完备偏好理论近期文献的基础上,以联系偏好和行为的一致性条件为主线,阐述了不完备偏好显示理论的最新进展:由Γ-理性化转向Δ-理性化,选择集由消费束转向机会集;分别在确定性和不确定性的经济环境下,回顾了不完备偏好的函数表示理论的发展脉络,即由单维函数转向多维函数;特别是,在不确定性的经济环境下,讨论了两种可能的不完备偏好(口味不决和信念不决)的函数表示理论;整理归纳了不完备偏好理论在行为经济学和博弈论等经济学领域中的若干应用。     

Incomplete Markets, Allocative Efficiency, and the Information Revealed by Prices

We compare rational expectations equilibria with different degrees of information revelation through prices. These equilibria arise in a two-period exchange economy with finitely many states and signals, multiple commodities and incomplete financial markets for nominal assets. We show that there are always equilibria where information is redundant in the sense of being of no value to the uninformed traders. We give conditions under which for a generic set of economies, parametrized by endowments and utilities, there exist open sets of equilibria for which allocative and informational efficiency are independent, with implications for monetary policy. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D52, D60, D82, E52.     

我国农村市场化发展障碍及对策浅析

20世纪80年代以来,农村改革取得举世瞩目的成就,农村市场化有了一定的发展,但总体看,农村市场化发展程度还很不足。认清我国农村市场化发展障碍,提出有效对策推进其发展,实现农村城市化、农业产业化、农民市民化,进而有助于解决“三农问题”。     

The Economics Of Partner Out Trading in Sexual Markets

This paper derives a model of participation in what is commonly known as ‘adultery’. Arguably the best sex survey in the world is used to produce estimates of participation functions. The results show a great deal of support for bioeconomic models and reveal some interesting similarities and differences between the male and female equations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Structure of Financial Markets and the 'First Principles' of Monetary Economics

There has been a significant degree of financial restructuring over the last few decades, which has prompted a rethinking of the first principles of monetary economics. The focus here is on how four specifications of these principles address such issues as the need for central banks and the potential for separation of the monetary functions. The case is made for one approach, which suggests that the need to establish trustworthy credit relations, in an environment subject to fundamental uncertainty, is at the heart of monetary systems. It is argued that monetary history demonstrates that monetary standards and central banking have indeed tended to be the outcome of the competitive process in the financial sector.     

我国西部地区农业外部经济性的简略分析

在探讨西部开发有关问题时,一般比较多的是把西部同落后连在了一起,认为西部目前的现状完全是因为西部太落后了.不能否认这样认识的正确性,但其中的片面性是显而易见的.应该说,导致西部目前的状况是有着一定的制度根源的,特别是西部农业的外部经济性突出,而长期以来又没有克服外部影响的合理机制,因而西部农业的利益扭曲是客观存在的事实.本文由此出发,着重于揭示西部农业外部经济性的表现及其原因,试图为西部农业发展找到一种新解释.