基于神经网络的通货膨胀预测模型研究

本文采用神经网络的方法,利用消费者物价指数、工业增加值和货币供给等数据,分别以BP神经网络、RBF神经网络和Elman神经网络建立通货膨胀预测模型.三个模型预测结果表明,采用神经网络方法建立的模型能够较好地预测通货膨胀的变动.通过比较BP神经网络和Elman神经网络预测结果可以看出,带有反馈机制的神经网络模型预测性能优于一般神经网络模型.     

基于Braincell的广西旅游物流需求预测研究

旅游物流的需求预测对旅游产业的发展影响很大,而旅游物流本身的独特性和复杂性使一般方法在进行旅游物流需求预测时具有很大的难度,且预测的精度差。为了克服一般方法需求预测的局限性及旅游物流数据的不完整性,文章建立了基于神经网络的旅游物流预测模型,利用神经网络理论和Braincell软件对广西旅游物流需求进行预测,极大程度的提高了旅游物流预测的准确性。     

安徽省道路旅游客运车辆需求量预测分析

本文分别采用指数函数曲线预测模型、灰色简单预测模型和多元线性回归的一般模型预测安徽旅游人数,依据三种方法预测结果的加权平均数,预测了安徽道路旅游客运车辆需求量,为道路旅游客运体系的建立,能够提供科学的决策依据。     

基于非节假日Elman神经网络的电力负荷短期预测

为降低节假日对预测工作的影响,将剔除法定节假日后的样本作为预测样本。以最大相对误差、平均绝对误差以及均方根误差作为模型的衡量指标,通过建立广义回归神经网络、小波神经网络与Elman神经网络预测模型对预测样本进行预测,最后仿真结果表明Elman神经网络预测模型能更好地提高预测精度。     

基于智能神经网络组合预测的国债利率期限结构建模与实证

作为整个经济活动的基准利率,国债的利率期限结构,全面而深刻地影响着市场上其他利率和资产价格的评估。在分析了传统的指数函数回归、BP神经网络单一预测方法的局限性后,本文建立了将不同单一模型的预测值进行集聚处理的神经网络组合预测模型,并对上海证券交易所20个不同待偿期限的国债品种进行预测和方差检验。实证结果表明,神经网络组合预测模型,能够充分吸收各单一预测模型的优点,扬长避短,削弱单一模型的不稳定性,增强预测的准确性、有效性。     

基于灰色LM-BP神经网络对第三产业综合指数的预测

第三产业发展趋势的预测对于国家或地方政府制定宏观政策有着重要的意义。为更加准确地进行第三产业的预测,从多角度选取指标,利用信息墒理论合成综合指标,建立灰色LM-BP神经网络对其进行预测,实证分析灰色LM-BP神经网络比单一的灰色预测模型和传统BP神经网络预测模型拟合和预测能力要好,说明了模型适应成都第三产业发展趋势的预测。     

RFID技术发展趋势预测研究

针对射频信号自动识别(RFID)技术发展受多种因素影响,变化趋势复杂,难以通过建立准确的数学模型进行预测的问题,本文提出了灰色动态模型对射频信号自动识别(RFID)技术发展趋势进行预测,在此基础上构造了灰色神经网络组合预测模型。该模型避免了变权组合预测模型的主观与繁琐,能有效地将灰色预测弱化数据序列波动性的优点和神经网络较强的非线性适应能力相融合。算例结果表明该方法的可行性和有效性,预测精度也得到了改善。     

基于神经网络的工程造价模型的建立

基于神经网络强大的非线性映射原理,提出了BP神经网络模型的工程造价预测模型,指出该预测模型可对线性和非线性关系的工程造价进行合理的预测,经过实例证明,该方法收敛速度快,预测的可靠性令人满意.     

灰色神经网络在股价预测中的应用

本文在深入了解股价的可预测性和研究各种股价预测的方法的基础上,探讨利用BP神经网络和灰色模型进行股价预测。以二者为基础,将BP神经网络和灰色模型预测模型的优点结合,提出灰色神经网络模型。该模型将灰色模型的预测值作为BP神经网络的输入变量,而以实际值作为输出变量对神经网络进行训练。     

基于支持向量机的上证指数预测研究

基于支持向量机的预测模型对上证指数进行预测,并将其预测结果与BP神经网络的预测结果进行对比,其结果表明,支持向量机的预测模型具有较高的拟合和预测精度并优于BP神经网络模型,且支持向量机预测方法计算速度快,准确率高,具有很好的推广应用价值。     

Performance evaluation of tourism websites' information quality of four global destination brands: Beijing,Hong Kong,Shanghai, and Taipei

Some tourists only have a slight idea of where they want to go on a holiday when planning starts. Such tourists or their travel partners are likely to look for information for making a final travel decision. As the web becomes an increasingly popular information source, tourism destination websites can play a critical role in destination choice. A rubric for comparing tourism websites put forward by Dion and Woodside (2010) is used and ideas for enhancing the rubric are introduced utilizing a growing literature. Comparisons are made for the tourism websites of Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, and Taipei. Analysis involves considering websites' quality and usefulness. The study indicates that Hong Kong's site is best while Beijing has the most room for improvement. The paper concludes with implications of the research for website analysis. The discussion includes contributions to the value of criteria for websites found in the literature but not covered in an information-quality performance rubric.     

香港在泛珠三角旅游合作中的角色

在泛珠三角旅游合作中,香港以其雄厚的经济实力、旅游业实力和明显的旅游业优势而占有独特的地位.香港不仅可以成为内地旅游业发展的窗口,而且可以成为联接内地与海外旅游业的桥梁,甚至还可以成为内地旅游部门借鉴当今国际旅游业先进经验的一个重要渠道.泛珠各省区应善用香港的旅游资源和优势,推动内地旅游业有新的发展.     

深圳与香港物流业竞争力分析

随着深圳物流业的崛起,深圳与香港物流业竞争力的比较越来越受到业界的关注。通过在生产要素成本、组织成本和要素质量三个方面对深圳和香港物流业的竞争力的实证分析,表明深圳的要素成本比香港有明显的优势,但是深圳的制度成本比香港要高。在生产要素质量方面,深圳与香港的“硬要素”差距不大,“软要素”差距比较大。深圳中低端物流业务的竞争力正在接近甚至超越香港,将促使原本在香港境内的此类业务向深圳、珠江三角洲等地区转移。     

Born to be similar? Global isomorphism and the emergence of latecomer business schools

By building on insights from institutional isomorphism, this paper investigates the development paths of latecomer business schools in Hong Kong, (South) Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. The global isomorphic pressure prevalent in higher education (e.g. the global regime of rankings) drives latecomers to imitate the practices of incumbents in order to enhance their academic impact through business and management research. Our study argues that latecomers respond to global isomorphism by forging their own paths. Our analysis shows that business knowledge production in Hong Kong and Singapore was more responsive to coercive (research strategy) and normative (faculty recruitment strategy) isomorphic pressure than Korea and Taiwan. The response to mimetic isomorphic pressure (co-authorship strategy) was less salient in Hong Kong and Taiwan than in Singapore and Korea. Further, we find that research, faculty recruitment, and co-authorship strategies affect the academic impact (citations) of the higher education institutions across each country differently. Our study sheds new light on the role of global isomorphism in the emergence of latecomer business schools.     

Dynamic and Responsive Firm Strategy

Abstract

Since the opening of China in 1980, Hong Kong manufacturing industries collaborated with China manufacturing industries to maintain a low-cost labor intensive strategy. The strategy seems to be sufficient in maintaining the global competitive advantage of Hong Kong for the past two decades. However, with the rapid organizational learning of the Chinese partner and the reluctance of the Hong Kong partner to upgrade technology, Hong Kong manufacturing industries are facing the risk of potential loss of competitive advantages. This article attempts to review this dynamic evolution of HK/China collaborations and suggest some future actions for Hong Kong manufacturing industries to maintain their competitiveness. At the same time, the article also provides some ideas for global investors to rethink their future firm strategies in China.     

Hong Kong's Hotel industry—the post-hand-over blues

Hong Kong's tourism industry collapsed around July 1997, shortly after the hand over to Chinese rule. When the Asian financial crisis hit, Hong Kong's investments in neighboring countries suffered. Thereafter the Heng Seng Index dropped 55 percent. Throughout the last quarter of 1997 Hong Kong's economic inhibitors—unemployment, business failures, and negative GDP—all pointed to a recession. Among Hong Kong's hotels, more than 1,750 jobs were lost from December 1997 to March 1998, and average room rates dropped below 1991 levels. Hong Kong's tourism crisis can be traced to: an imbalance between room supply and demand (caused by the inflated demand for office space), unfair hotel pricing to take advantage of Japanese tourists, ineffective national promotional campaigns, airline woes, and food-borne illnesses that scared away visitors. Economic recovery is likely to take several years, and is dependent on the recovery of the rest of the region's countries. In June 1998 Hong Kong produced an economic-stimulus package to stem the tide of decreasing land values and stimulate the money supply. Hoteliers can help by working together to ensure pricing stability. Coordination is also needed between the Hong Kong Tourist Association and the rest of the industry to set goals and objectives. Hospitality education and training need to focus on the current needs of the industry and on how to compete in the new market.     

Small Firm Marketing in China: A Comparative Study

This paper examines the influence of Chinese cultural values on marketing practices in different socio-cultural settings and business contexts, for example the United Kingdom, Hong Kong and China. 20 Chinese small firms in China were selected and their owner-managers were interviewed. Findings of interviews undertaken by Brooksbank et al. (1992) with 20 British small firm chief marketing executives, and Siu (1997) with 26 Chinese owner-managers in Hong Kong, were collated to form a database for comparison purposes. The research results suggest that the specific marketing practices of Chinese small firms in mainland China are different from those of their counterparts, for example, British and Hong Kong Chinese small firms. A tentative model is developed explaining the factors that appear likely, on the basis of this research, to affect the marketing performance of small firms in China.     

The demand for business and management education in Hong Kong beyond 1997

In this contribution, the future market of business and management education in Hong Kong is investigated, bearing in mind that Hong Kong reverted to Chinese sovereignty. Hong Kong is expected to continue its prosperity, but the emigration of large numbers of Hong Kong professionals wanting to secure a safety net by acquiring a foreign passport has further created demands for better and more business and management education in an attempt to develop more professional managers. The study starts by discussing the current state of the Hong Kong economy and the phenomenon of the ‘brain drain’. In addition, it analyses a survey of the current state of business and management education in Hong Kong so that a market need can be identified to match economic growth. Finally, the study suggests a future research direction for Hong Kong's business and management education.     

Out of the Mouths of Babes: Business Ethics and Youths in Asia

A model of corporate ethics and social responsibility (CESR) was developed and empirically tested among Chinese business undergraduates in Hong Kong and Singapore. As predicted, it was found that CESR beliefs were negatively related to Machiavellianism and two Confucian concepts, guanxi (interpersonal connections) and mianzi (face). CESR beliefs were also lower among Hong Kong than Singaporean youths. The negative effects of guanxi, mianzi, and Machiavellianism were more pronounced for the Hong Kong than Singapore sample. Implications of these findings are discussed and directions for future research suggested.     

How do restaurant customers make trade-offs among rate fences?

This study examines how restaurant customers make trade-offs among several restaurant rate fences using a sample of mainland Chinese travelers to Hong Kong. A total of six restaurant rate fences (i.e., lunch/dinner pricing, weekday/weekend pricing, table location pricing, restricted coupon pricing, meal period, and reservation and seating policy) and menu price were selected, and a conjoint analysis was performed. Findings reveal that price, restricted coupon pricing, and meal period are the most important attributes when restaurant customers select a restaurant. This study is the first attempt to examine the relative importance of different types of restaurant rate fences. The findings will help restaurant operators to better understand the decision-making process of Chinese travelers and design appropriate rate fences accordingly.