Where are the best opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the food system (including the food chain)?

This paper reviews estimates of food related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the global, regional and national levels, highlighting both GHG-intensive stages in the food chain, and GHG-intensive food types. It examines approaches that have been proposed for mitigating emissions at each stage in the chain and looks at how these sit within wider discussions of sustainability. It finds that efficiency-focused technological measures, while important, may not only be insufficient in reducing GHGs to the level required but may also give rise to other environmental and ethical concerns. It gives evidence showing that in addition to technological mitigation it will also be necessary to shift patterns of consumption, and in particular away from diets rich in GHG-intensive meat and dairy foods. This will be necessary not just in the developed but also, in the longer term, in the developing world. This move, while potentially beneficial for food secure, wealthier populations, raises potentially serious nutritional questions for the world’s poorest. A priority for decision makers is to develop policies that explicitly seek to integrate agricultural, environmental and nutritional objectives.     

World food futures — growth with redistribution?

The authors contend that the world has the capacity to support both the present population and any likely increase in population, relatively comfortably for at least the next 100 years. Although millions are malnourished today, world food production is sufficient to feed them, and problems in distribution are the cause of their misfortune. The reasons behind this paradox are examined in the context of the world futures debate, and some implications for policy are suggested. As Gross National Product rises, the poorest nations and income groups within nations need protection against ever-increasing demand for food by wealthier groups.     

Local impacts of a global crisis: Food price transmission,consumer welfare and poverty in Ghana

This paper takes a local perspective on global food price shocks by analyzing food price transmission between regional markets in Ghana. It also assesses the impacts of food price increases on various household groups. Taking the 2007–2008 global food crisis as an example, we show that prices for domestic grain products are highly correlated with world market prices. This is true both for products for which Ghana is highly import-dependent (e.g., rice) and the products for which Ghana is self-sufficient (e.g., maize). The econometric results also show that price transmission is high between regional producer markets and markets located in the country’s largest cities, and the distance between producer and consumer markets and the size of consumer markets matter in explaining the price transmission. The welfare analysis for households as consumers shows that the effect of world food prices appears relatively modest for the country as a whole due to relatively diverse consumption patterns within country. However, the national average hides important regional differences, both between regions and within different income groups. We find that the poorest of the poor—particularly those living in the urban areas—are hardest hit by high food prices. The negative effect of the food crisis is particularly strong in northern Ghana. The main explanations for this regional variation in the price effect is the different consumption patterns and much lower per capita income levels in the North of Ghana compared to other regions in the country.     

World food consumption: Can we achieve a balance?

This article sets out to analyse the problem of inequalities in consumption levels between countries, and within countries between people in different income groups. It first examines food consumption, then an attempt is made to establish certain quantitative relationships between overconsumption and malnutrition. Finally, it explores methods which might make it possible to transfer food from one part of the world to another, entailing a reduction in food consumption in the industrialised countries.     

Agriculture,nutrition and development in Yugoslavia

Improvements in food consumption and nutrition, being important indicators of the standard of living, can only be analysed properly within the context of socioeconomic development. The authors examine the developments of food and nutrition policy in Yugoslavia, a country disadvantaged by a backward economy and poor social conditions inherited from the prewar and pre-revolutionary period and exacerbated by the second world war.     

Models of world food supply,demand and nutrition

Computer simulation of the world problematique offers a policy maker an interesting opportunity to see the dynamics of relationships within and between the global subsystems of which food and agriculture is one. The four major modelling studies reviewed in this article make assumptions about the possible level of food supply, technological and economic impacts on production, ecological consequences, and social and political factors influencing demand. Following their analysis of agricultural data inputs in all these areas, the authors discuss the type of policy measures likely to be recommended on the basis of global modelling.     

Organising agriculture in the year 2000

How much of the world's potential food production is realised depends on how effectively agriculture is organised. The authors evaluate the effects of alternative agricultural systems on food production, consumption and trade growth rates in the food-deficit, developing countries. The effects of these alternative agricultural systems on production and trade in the rest of the world are also discussed. They conclude with a review of the specific characteristics of the alternative systems and examine the role each is likely to play in organising agriculture in the year 2000.     

Bioenergie im globalen Energiesystem Möglichkeiten und Grenzen

Biomass as a source of energy becomes more and more important world wide. At the same time the demand for food and fodder as well as for renewable raw material is increasing significantly. On this background the goal of this paper is it to discuss based on a presentation of the world wide energy system the potentials of an energy provision from biomass and to discuss these potentials within the context of the dimensions of the global energy system. Based on these data statements are made under which circumstances the contribution of biomass within the energy system can be increased.     

AIDS and food production in East and Central Africa: a research outline

AIDS has penetrated at least 42 countries in Africa. Death of Africans usually occurs within 3 years of diagnosis. Not much is currently known about the demographics of the disease or about its impact on economic and social behavior, farming, and food production. There is currently a food crisis in Africa, so it is appropriate to study how much of an impact this disease has on future food production. In order to study the problem, one must predict the spread of AIDS. 2nd, one must infer how labor loss effects current rural production. Labor loss will cause changes in organization of production, technology, and types of crops grown. As a crisis increases, certain groups will be cut out of the food distribution. Characterizations such as these allow the mapping of areas vulnerable to labor loss. Field analysis and modeling must substantiate the theories and predictions. This paper describes the research design which will be used by 2 researchers from the Overseas Development Group of the University of East Anglia to measure the impact of AIDS on food production, working initially in a high HIV - prevalent area in Uganda.     

Continuous learning and the management of change

The author deals with the problem faced by Lever Brothers Ltd, a company within the Unilever Group, in training graduate management trainees to manage change in an era in which subordinates increasingly challenge management decisions and those decisions themselves are less confidently made.
One response was to include in the first-year management training programme a week-long Study Group, guided but not led by a process consultant, and dedicated to exploring possible changes in the company's personnel management policies necessary to meet expected changes in the social and economic climate.
Over the years the format and detailed objectives of this Study Group have changed but as a result of the flexibility of the format and the openness of the transactions much has been learned on how to manage change. Trainees have learned, for exarnple, that learning must be viewed as part of work and not something added on, that group learning is possible and desirable, that people learn in different ways, and that managing a technical operation involves managing a social group. The paper also discusses the role of the trainer in such free-ranging group processes and the need to integrate what has been learned in training sessions with the real world of operations.
The author concludes by emphasising that the most important lesson learned by trainees is that managing the process of the Study Group was an essential part of managing its task. From this experience they also learnt the more important lesson that process review is basic to managing in real life.     

Changes in human nutrition and US exports

Changes in US nutrition could increase the availability of grains for world food use. This study examines such changes by means of a programming model which allows an optimal inter-regional allocation of grains while simultaneous shifts are made in consumer diets. The three alternatives examined include use of added US production potential for wheat production and exports, a substitution of 25% soy protein for meat and reducing the animal protein intake by 25%. Sizable increases in food exports could be made under each of the three alternatives. Of course, institutional means would need to be created to facilitate these shifts.     

国际粮食价格危机的农业政策根源

2007～2008年世界粮食作物价格的急剧上涨的原因很大程度上要归结于各国长期的农业政策。从农业贸易看,农业贸易限制程度远远高于工业贸易,这不利于粮食作物产量在全球的分配;从农业生产看,发达国家和发展中国家完全不同的政策导向,导致了全球农业生产的低效率。应对世界粮食价格飙升最有效的长远机制是全球粮食贸易自由化,减少甚至取消贸易扭曲的农业生产和贸易政策。     

Cognitive style related to the design process

This paper describes the development of a new version of Witkin's Group Embedded Figures Test (GEFT) and two further tests of a similar type using words and letters. The new form of the Group Embedded Figures Test Consists of a number of original two dimensional figures (complex and simple). Variations of the basic two dimensional figures were obtained by establishing a geometrical progression (from following a set of simple rules) to produce increasing degrees of complexity of the complex figures. This in turn generated more simple figures within them which were used in the test items.By using words and lettersas a means of generating embedded complex/simple shapes, not only are very different types of (overall) shape possible, but also the notion of field dependence/independence can (possibly) be applied to non-spatial (in the usual sense) modes of operating within the curriculum, i.e. the humanities as opposed to design and technology subject areas.     

A reappraisal of the extent of world hunger

The variation between different estimates of the magnitude of the world food problem are enormous. The author questions the basis of the major surveys of FAO, the World Bank, and USDA, and suggests that they have grossly overestimated the extent of world hunger. By analyzing the connection between population, food, and economic participation, a more realistic view is obtained, suggesting a return to targeted assistance programs for the improvement of maternal and child health.     

Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen: Challenges from climate change

This paper provides a model-based assessment of local and global climate change impacts for the case of Yemen, focusing on agricultural production, household incomes and food security. Global climate change is mainly transmitted through rising world food prices. Our simulation results suggest that climate change induced price increases for food will raise agricultural GDP while decreasing real household incomes and food security. Rural non-farm households are hit hardest as they tend to be net food consumers with high food budget shares, but farm households also experience real income losses given that many of them are net buyers of food. The impacts of local climate change are less clear given the ambiguous predictions of global climate models (GCMs) with respect to future rainfall patterns in Yemen. Local climate change impacts manifest itself in long term yield changes, which differ between two alternative climate scenarios considered. Under the MIR scenario, agricultural GDP is somewhat higher than with perfect mitigation and rural incomes rise due to higher yields and lower prices for sorghum and millet. Under the CSI scenario, positive and negative yield changes cancel each other out. As a result, agricultural GDP and household incomes hardly change compared to perfect mitigation.     

Food Research Institute,Stanford University

The Food Research Institute of Stanford University is one of the oldest research and training institutions focusing on the production, distribution, and consumption of food on a global scale. Now a unit within the School of Humanities and Sciences, it was established in 1921 by an endowment grant from the Carnegie Corporation. At the present time, the Institute has a faculty of twelve social scientists, a student body of forty graduate students from all over the world, and a half-dozen ongoing research projects.     

The Soviet burden on the world food system : Challenge and response

Through its disruptive entry into western food markets and its non —participation in global efforts at food policy management the Soviet Union has placed a burden upon the world food system. Dr Paarlberg examines this burden and the US response which has been to seek better information on Soviet agriculture, impose ad hoc controls on food sales and to enter a bilateral agreement in 1975. Three other suggested responses —grain reserves held without Soviet participation, a US wheat board, and a North American export cartel —are discussed. The author concludes that the Soviet burden is decreasing and is best lifted by increasing the free supply available for export. In future. Soviet reliance on food imports may draw it into a greater dependence on the non-socialist world.     

Food policies and prospects: Insights from global modelling

The author describes the application to international food problems of a simulation model of the world economy developed by the Systems Analysis Research Unit (SARU) of the UK Department of the Environment. He examines the role of food trade under alternative future conditions of abundance and adversity. Comparisons are drawn with some of the conclusions of other world models. The results highlight the potential of food trade as a contributor to higher income and consumption in poor regions, notably South and Southeast Asia.     

On food security and the economic valuation of food

The paper presents an economic evaluation of food and the cost of food insecurity. Building on behavioral regularities of consumer behavior, the analysis estimates the benefit of food at the individual level and at the world level. It finds an inverted-U relationship between food benefit and income. At the individual level, the “food benefit/income” ratio starts at 0 under extreme poverty, increases with income to reach a maximum of 4.4 when income per capita is around $13,000, and then declines slowly as income rises. The paper shows very large aggregate net benefit of food. The analysis also evaluates the cost of food insecurity. It shows that aversion to food insecurity is pervasive, the coefficient of relative risk aversion to food insecurity being around 2.7. The analysis evaluates empirically the cost of food insecurity. We report the cost of food insecurity under alternative scenarios, documenting that it can be large in situations of exposure to significant downside risk.