Market conditions,default risk and credit spreads

This study empirically examines the impact of the interaction between market and default risk on corporate credit spreads. Using credit default swap (CDS) spreads, we find that average credit spreads decrease in GDP growth rate, but increase in GDP growth volatility and jump risk in the equity market. At the market level, investor sentiment is the most important determinant of credit spreads. At the firm level, credit spreads generally rise with cash flow volatility and beta, with the effect of cash flow beta varying with market conditions. We identify implied volatility as the most significant determinant of default risk among firm-level characteristics. Overall, a major portion of individual credit spreads is accounted for by firm-level determinants of default risk, while macroeconomic variables are directly responsible for a lesser portion.     

Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?

Most structural models of default preclude the firm from altering its capital structure. In practice, firms adjust outstanding debt levels in response to changes in firm value, thus generating mean-reverting leverage ratios. We propose a structural model of default with stochastic interest rates that captures this mean reversion. Our model generates credit spreads that are larger for low-leverage firms, and less sensitive to changes in firm value, both of which are more consistent with empirical findings than predictions of extant models. Further, the term structure of credit spreads can be upward sloping for speculative-grade debt, consistent with recent empirical findings.     

Capital structure,credit risk,and macroeconomic conditions

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the impact of macroeconomic conditions on credit risk and dynamic capital structure choice. We begin by observing that when cash flows depend on current economic conditions, there will be a benefit for firms to adapt their default and financing policies to the position of the economy in the business cycle phase. We then demonstrate that this simple observation has a wide range of empirical implications for corporations. Notably, we show that our model can replicate observed debt levels and the countercyclicality of leverage ratios. We also demonstrate that it can reproduce the observed term structure of credit spreads and generate strictly positive credit spreads for debt contracts with very short maturities. Finally, we characterize the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the pace and size of capital structure changes, and debt capacity.     

A Multifactor Model of Credit Spreads

We represent credit spreads across ratings as a function of common unobservable factors of the Vasicek form. Using a state-space approach we estimate the factors, their process parameters, and the exposure of each observed credit spread series to each factor. We find that most of the systematic variation across credit spreads is captured by three factors. The factors are closely related to the implied volatility index (VIX), the long bond rate, and S&P500 returns, supporting the predictions of structural models of default at an aggregate level. By making no prior assumption about the determinants of yield spread dynamics, our study provides an original and independent test of theory. The results also contribute to the current debate about the role of liquidity in corporate yield spreads. While recent empirical literature shows that the level and time-variation in corporate yield spreads is driven primarily by a systematic liquidity risk factor, we find that the three most important drivers of yield spread levels relate to macroeconomic variables. This suggests that if credit spread levels do contain a large liquidity premium, the time variation of this premium is likely driven by the same factors as default risk.     

Sovereign credit spreads

The paper develops a structural credit risk model to study sovereign credit risk and the dynamics of sovereign credit spreads. The model features endogenous default and recovery rates that both depend on the interaction between domestic output fluctuations and global macroeconomic conditions. We show that sovereigns choose to default at higher levels of economic output once global macroeconomic conditions are bad. This yields to default rates and credit spreads that are substantially higher compared to normal times. We derive closed-form expressions for sovereign debt values and default times and focus on the dynamics of sovereign credit spreads. As opposed to standard theories of sovereign debt, this paper’s structural model generates much richer default patterns and non-linearities through regime-shifts in the global macroeconomic environment. Moreover, changes in the global environment reveal the interconnectedness of the financial system.     

The analytic pricing of asymmetric defaultable swaps

Swaps where both parties are exposed to credit risk still lack convincing pricing mechanisms. This article presents a reduced-form model where the event of default is related to structural characteristics of each party. The cash flows submitted to credit risk are identified before the swap is priced. Analytical pricing formulas for interest rate and currency swaps are computed using a Gaussian model for risky bonds. Currency swaps exhibit additional correlation risk. The benefits from netting depend on the balance between exposures and market conditions in valuation. We show that sources of credit risk asymmetries are also likely to impact on credit spreads.     

Leverage, options liabilities, and corporate bond pricing

The two major problems with typical structural models are the failure to attain a positive credit spread in the very short term, and overestimation of the overall level of the credit spread. We recognize the presence of option liabilities in a firm’s capital structure and the effect they have on the firm’s credit spread. Including option liabilities and employing a regime switching interest rate process to capture the business cycle resolves the above-mentioned drawbacks in explaining credit spreads. We find that the credit spread overestimation problem in one of the structural models, Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein (J Finan 56:1929–1957, 2001), can be resolved by combining option liabilities and the regime-switching interest rate process when dealing with an investment grade bond, whereas with junk bonds, only the regime-switching interest rate process is needed. We also examine vulnerable option values, debt values, and zero-coupon bond values with different model settings and leverage ratios.      

Macroeconomic risks of supply chain counterparties and corporate bond yield spreads

The domino phenomenon that corporate failures occur along supply chain during the recent financial tsunami shows the important effects of the systematic risk of a firm’s supply chain counterparties on its credit risk (or bond yield spreads). It motivates this research to investigate the effects of supply chain counterparties’ macroeconomic risks on corporate bond yield spreads by employing 10,022 American bond observations from 1997 to 2008. The empirical results show that the macroeconomic risks of a firm and its customers are significantly and positively related to the firm’s bond yield spreads while those of suppliers have insignificant effects.     

Understanding the term structure of credit default swap spreads

The shape of the term structure of credit default swap (CDS) spreads displays large variations over time and across firms. Consistent with the predictions of structural models of credit risk, we find that the slope of CDS spread term structure increases with firm leverage and volatility, but decreases with the level and the slope of the Treasury yield curve. However, these variables together have rather limited explanatory power for CDS slope and there is a significant common component in the regression residuals. In addition, we find that CDS slope predicts future changes in the CDS spreads, even after controlling for the contemporaneous variables that determine changes in the CDS spreads according to the structural models. Our results suggest that while structural models are qualitatively useful for understanding the shape of credit term structure, there are missing factors that importantly affect the term structure of CDS spreads.     

RECOGNIZING MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS IN VALUE BASED MANAGEMENT

Value Based Management (VBM) has become a common tool for evaluating corporate strategies and projects from the perspective of shareholder value maximization, and can be an important input for corporate compensation systems. But traditional VBM frameworks make no systematic effort to distinguish between changes in performance attributable to macroeconomic fluctuations beyond management's control and changes in performance that reflect the intrinsic competitive position of the firm.
The authors have developed an approach for "filtering out" the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on cash flows for purposes of performance evaluation. Such fluctuations are captured by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and aggregate price levels (both domestically and abroad) that are significantly correlated with a particular company's cash flows. The authors also provide a method for distinguishing between expected and unanticipated cash flow effects of macro events and recommend insulating managers' performance only from the changes they cannot anticipate and manage. In applying the framework to Electrolux, a Swedish multinational, the authors show that unanticipated changes in the krona/pound exchange rate and various interest rates contribute significantly to the variability of the firm's cash flows; and with the help of the sensitivity coefficients used to measure such exposures, they calculate measures of "intrinsic" cash flow that are purged of such macro effects.     

Corporate social responsibility,credit rating,and private debt contracting: new evidence from syndicated loan market

We examine the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities on loan spreads of syndicated bank loans, with a particular interest in how CSR and credit ratings are interrelated as a joint determinant of loan spreads. Focusing on private debt contracts, we show that both CSR strengths and concerns are related to their loan spreads. CSR strengths work to lower firm risk, hence reducing the loan spread, whereas CSR concerns increase firm risk, thus increasing the loan spread. Once we include detailed credit rating information in the models, however, CSR concerns lose significance, but CSR strengths remain significantly related to the loan spread. We also find that both CSR strengths and CSR concerns are related to loan spread for non-rated firms, but the CSR concern effect is stronger than the CSR strength effect for these firms. A further test shows that firm risk measured by stock return volatility plays as a direct channel through which a firm’s CSR activities affect loan spreads, whose result lends further support to our main results. Overall, our results provide strong evidence that CSR matters to the pricing of loan contracts beyond credit rating information and the results remain robust to the possible firm size effect and the endogeneity issues.     

A jump-diffusion model for pricing corporate debt securities in a complex capital structure

This paper proposes a jump-diffusion model, in closed form, to price corporate debt securities, senior and junior, with the same maturity and violation of the absolute priority rule. We take the structural approach that the firm's asset value follows a jump-diffusion process in a stochastic interest rate economy. Default occurs only if the firm value at the maturity of the corporate debts is less than the sum of the prespecified face values. Unlike previous models in the structural approach, our model is consistent with the current term structures of credit spreads for both senior and junior debts. In particular, it captures realistic short maturity credit spreads observed in the market. The key idea is to allow the jump intensity to be a time-dependent function. As an application, valuation of credit spread options is presented.     

Capital Structure, Information Acquisition and Investment Decisions in an Industry Framework

This paper analyzes the relationship between a firm's capital structure and its information acquisition prior to capital budgeting decisions. It is found that low-growth industries can sustain a large number of levered firms. In these industries, leverage is negatively related to a firm's incentive to acquire information during the capital budgeting process. In contrast, high-growth industries only sustain a small number of levered firms. In these industries, levered firms acquire more information than all-equity financed firms. The model yields empirical predictions regarding the effects of leverage on the expected amount and the volatility of corporate investment. While leverage does not affect firm value, highly levered firms generate a more volatile cash flow than firms with low debt levels.     

The Effect of Interest Rates on the Value of Corporate Assets and the Risk Premia of Corporate Debt

A growing number of papers have applied option pricing techniques to the valuation of risky debt. This paper deals directly with how a firm's relationship to interest rates affects its debt. A sequential binomial model is used to price the zero-coupon bonds of a firm whose value is related to interest rate changes.The results show that the strength of the relationship between firm value and interest rates (interest-rate risk) can have a significant impact on the value of a firm's debt. The model produces its most powerful results when the volatility of firm value is high and the term structure has a steep (negative or positive) slope; there is no impact when the term structure is flat. Our results indicate that empirical studies of yield spreads may have severe shortcomings if the relationship of firm value to interest rate changes is ignored.     

Time‐Varying Asset Volatility and the Credit Spread Puzzle

Most extant structural credit risk models underestimate credit spreads—a shortcoming known as the credit spread puzzle. We consider a model with priced stochastic asset risk that is able to fit medium‐ to long‐term spreads. The model, augmented by jumps to help explain short‐term spreads, is estimated on firm‐level data and identifies significant asset variance risk premia. An important feature of the model is the significant time variation in risk premia induced by the uncertainty about asset risk. Various extensions are considered, among them optimal leverage and endogenous default.     

Real asset liquidity,cash holdings,and the cost of corporate debt

We study the impact of the interplay between cash holdings and asset sales on the corporate debt spread. We allow cash holdings and asset sales to assist with both debt repayment and sequential investments. The interplay between cash holdings and asset sales leads to a convex relationship between credit spreads and the liquidity of the market for real assets. We use the 2008 financial crisis as a natural experiment and find that post-2008, the nonlinearity of the link between credit spreads and asset liquidity is pronounced, closely matching analytical predictions. This is especially acute for highly leveraged and low profitability firms.     

杠杆率变动、固定资产投资与研发活动——兼论金融赋能高质量发展

本文通过构建一个包含企业固定资产投资与研发投资的理论模型,分析得出企业杠杆率变动与投资行为的非线性关系。实证结果表明,低杠杆下,杠杆率的增大会使企业增加固定资产和研发投资的规模。对于财务柔性更强、发展前景更好的企业,杠杆率的提升能够增大此类企业的研发投入占比,即企业开展更多能够提升技术水平的研发活动。进一步研究发现,短期杠杆与商业信用杠杆的提升有助于财务柔性较好的企业提高研发投资占比,而对于发展前景不佳的僵尸企业,长期杠杆和银行杠杆的提升反而会使其扩大固定资产投资,加剧产能过剩问题。本文的政策含义在于,要在保持宏观杠杆率基本稳定的前提下,引导金融资源更多投入到创新型经济上,给予优质及前景较好的企业一定杠杆率调整空间和自由度,使其能够更好地利用社会资金,激励其开展研发活动,促进金融更好地服务实体经济,赋能高质量发展。     

Growth options,macroeconomic conditions,and the cross section of credit risk

This paper develops a structural equilibrium model with intertemporal macroeconomic risk, incorporating the fact that firms are heterogeneous in their asset composition. Compared with firms that are mainly composed of invested assets, firms with growth options have higher costs of debt because they are more volatile and have a greater tendency to default during recession when marginal utility is high and recovery rates are low. Our model matches empirical facts regarding credit spreads, default probabilities, leverage ratios, equity premiums, and investment clustering. Importantly, it also makes predictions about the cross section of all these features.     

Pricing defaultable bonds: a middle-way approach between structural and reduced-form models

In this paper we present a valuation model that combines features of both the structural and reduced-form approaches for modelling default risk. We maintain the cause and effect or ‘structural’ definition of default and assume that default is triggered when a state variable reaches a default boundary. However, in our model, the state variable is not interpreted as the assets of the firm, but as a latent variable signalling the credit quality of the firm. Default in our model can also occur according to a doubly stochastic hazard rate. The hazard rate is a linear function of the state variable and the interest rate. We use the Cox et al. (A theory of the term structure of interest rates. Econometrica, 1985, 53(2), 385–407) term structure model to preclude the possibility of negative probabilities of default. We also horse race the proposed valuation model against structural and reduced-form default risky bond pricing models and find that term structures of credit spreads generated using the middle-way approach are more in line with empirical observations.     

Are Debt and Incentive Compensation Substitutes in Controlling the Free Cash Flow Agency Problem?

This paper investigates the governance implications of a firm's capital structure and managerial incentive compensation in controlling the free cash flow agency problem. The results suggest: debt and executive stock options act as substitutes in attenuating a firm's free cash flow problem; failure to incorporate the substitutability and endogeneity leads to underestimates of the magnitude and economic implication of the disciplinary role of both mechanisms; firm characteristics differ across the prevalence of debt usage versus option usage, suggesting the heterogeneity in the costs and benefits of the monitoring devices; and all the above effects are more pronounced in firms that tend to have more severe agency problem.