中国资本存量的再估算和分解

从本文研究结果来看,投资带来的资本存量快速增加是中国快速发展的重要原因,但是资本存量并没有传统研究估算的那么高,另外资本效能下降也是中国一个需要关注的现象。与传统研究不同,本文发现中国折旧变化并不是一个直线,而是分阶段逐步上升的,研究结果比较符合中国作为新兴市场国家的实际。     

非流通股对股票市场和上市公司的影响

本文构造了一个股票市场均衡模型来分析非流通股的存在对中国股票市场和上市公司的影响。我们发现非流通股的存在,使得股票市场价格发现机制扭曲,一方面使得股票价格不能真实地反映上市公司的经营绩效,另一方面使得流通股市场的股价波动与流通股比例密切相关。而且从我们的实证分析证实,非流通股比例越高,流通股市场的股价波动就越大,股票价格中含有的非流通股的放大作用越大,非流通股的存在也会影响经理人员的激励和报酬水平。     

中国沪深股市收益率和波动性的实证分析

沪市和深市股票收益率和波动性之闻具有相互作用和相互影响,存在股价变化和走势之间的互动作用和示范效应,我们发现两市收益率序列之间具有长期协整关系,这说明它们存在类似的长期趋势成分;它们的短期误差修正系数存在一定的差异,这说明它们具有相异的短期波动模式;我们利用 GARCH 模型等非对称性方法发现两市之间存在显著的波动"溢出效应"和"杠杆效应",这说明两市资金的流动性约束较低,投资主体的相关性较强,两市收益率和波动性之间具有一定程度的整合性。     

EFFECTS OF PRICE AND AVAILABILITY ON ABORTION DEMAND

Over 1.5 million legal abortions were performed in the United States in 1988. State-level regulation affecting the price or availability of abortion services may expand given recent Supreme Court decisions. This paper uses state-level data pooled over time to estimate abortion demand. Using single cross-sections of state data, past studies find abortion demand per 1,000 pregnancies to be price inelastic and find income elasticity to be positive and significant. The analysis here shows that price elasticity estimates in a single cross-section are sensitive to the choice of state characteristics used to control for "abortion attitudes" within a state. Ajixed-efects model design with pooled data gives more robust abortion demand price elasticity estimates. The results suggest that any new state regulations that increase the costs of obtaining abortions will reduce abortion use and increase unintended fertility .     

ESTIMATION OF THE STOCK OF CAPITAL IN SPAIN

The paper presents the methodology and results of the estimation of the endowments of capital in the Spanish economy. It distinguishes between endowments of public capital and private capital. The series corresponding to the public sector cover the period 1955–97 and consider seven categories (or functions). The estimates are disaggregated by 17 regions and 50 provinces. The level of disaggregation is regional and provincial (NUTS2 and NUTS3 in European terminology). The private capital series cover the period 1964–97 and consider 17 sectors of production, with disaggregation at regional level. The information refers to two variables: gross formation of fixed capital (in current and constant pesetas) and capital stock in constant pesetas (base year 1990).     

THE IMPACT OF PROVIDER AVAILABILITY ON ABORTION DEMAND

Variations in the availability of abortion providers may impact the demand for abortions since greater provider availability reduces the travel cost associated with acquiring an abortion. This paper applies a fertility-control model to estimate the responsiveness of abortion demand to travel-cost variations using county-level data on the state of Texas. Abortion rates as well as pregnancy rates appear to be sensitive to availability-induced variations in the travel cost of abortion services. In particular, the results suggest that residents in counties with longer travel distances to the nearest abortion provider have lower abortion rates and lower pregnancy rates.     

EFFICIENCY OF THE TAIWAN STOCK MARKET*

This study uses two popular technical trading rules to assess whether the gradual liberalization of Taiwan's securities markets has improved the efficiency of its stock market. The results show that the two rules have considerable predictive power for 1983–1990, they become less predictive for 1991–1997, and they cannot predict the market for 1998–2005. These results indicate that the efficiency of Taiwan stock market has been greatly enhanced by the liberalization measures implemented over the last 20 years.     

STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS

This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.     

上市公司股价与经理人薪酬合同设计

在成熟规范市场,由于股票价格长期看能比较准确地反映企业的市场价值,所以股票价格可作为经理人的长期和综合的业绩度量指标。股票价格的主要激励工具为经理人期权和限制性股权,期权作为股票价格的非线性合同,能够带来更强的激励效率,适用于能力较高的经理人和质量较差的项目。     

中国股票市场对政策信息的不平衡性反应研究

本文将影响股票市场的政策信息区分为"好消息"和"坏消息"。通过 EGARCH 模型研究中国股票市场对"好消息"与"坏消息"的不平衡性反应,指出"好消息"对我国股票市场的影响大于"坏消息"的影响,这与国外股票市场的情况正好相反。根据这一结果本文创建了"信息效应曲线",具体分析我国股票市场对"好消息"与"坏消息"的不平衡性反应的特征,提出现有交易机制下的股价波动模式。     

THE TREATMENT OF STOCK APPRECIATION IN THE MEASUREMENT OF NATIONAL INCOME*

In the latest official national income publication the Australian Commonwealth Statistician has altered the treatment of stock appreciation in the measurement of national income at current prices. Previously, stock appreciation had been included in both national expenditure and national product. Now the amount of stock appreciation (the difference between the change in the value of stocks and the value of the change in stocks) has been deducted from investment in stocks, and consequently national expenditure, and from trading incomes, and consequently national income. The former procedure (including stock appreciation in national expenditure and national product) had been advocated by the present author, when editor of the first official national income publications issued by the Commonwealth Statistician. In this note an attempt is made to set out the reasons for this view. A new approach is also suggested for handling the item of stock appreciation in national income accounts, which does not rest on the assumption that stock appreciation is a capital gain which should be excluded from trading incomes and national product.     

EFFECTS OF STOCK MARKET FLUCTUATIONS ON THE ADEQUACY OF RETIREMENT WEALTH ACCUMULATION

This paper examines the relation between fluctuations in the aggregate value of equities and the adequacy of households’ saving for retirement. Using more recent data than most studies on this topic, we find that many and perhaps most households appear to be saving adequate amounts for retirement, and that there is almost no link between aggregate equity values and the adequacy of retirement saving. A simulated 40 percent decline in stocks has little effect on the adequacy of saving. The substantial growth in equity values and ownership in the 1980s and 1990s did not lead to a surge in the adequacy of retirement saving provisions. The results occur because equity holdings are concentrated among households with significant amounts of other wealth.     

ESTIMATES OF CAPITAL STOCK BY INDUSTRIES IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

The main purpose of this paper is to discuss some of the measurement problems in connection with the perpetual inventory method applied for estimates of capital stock. In the Federal Republic of Germany, highly aggregated capital stock data by business sector are compiled by the Federal Statistical Office within its national accounts calculations, while more detailed capital stock estimates by industrial sectors are published by the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin. Because of various gaps in the statistical sources, the accuracy of the capital stock calculations is not yet entirely satisfactory. Aside from the problem of establishing long time series for gross fixed capital formation in constant prices for all sectors, it is difficult to obtain reliable data on the inter-sectoral transactions in secondhand capital goods. In addition, there are problems of determining price indices and service life distributions of the fixed assets in the various parts of the economy. This paper shows a way to arrive at a reasonably close approximation to the latter problem.     

人民币境外存量、国际收支 与人民币国际化进程*

人民币国际化问题已成为各国学者研究的热点。本文依据弗里德曼货币需求函数设立国内货币需求模型,并基于间接测算法和模型稳定性检验结果,选取1992-2003年的季度数据估测2004-2014年季度人民币境外存量,以此作为人民币国际化的衡量标准。在此基础上运用协整理论、格兰杰（Granger）因果检验、脉冲分析法等时间序列处理方法对我国现有的国际收支结构、经济规模、实际汇率及人民币国际化之间的动态关系进行实证分析。本文研究发现,上述变量之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,我国经济规模扩大、经常项目顺差和人民币稳步升值有利于推动人民币国际化进程,而资本和金融项目顺差会对人民币国际化产生阻碍作用。因此,在发展国民经济及维持人民币币值坚挺的同时,合理调整我国国际收支双顺差结构也是人民币国际化进程的客观要求。     

DEVELOPMENT OF ESTIMATES OF THE STOCK OF FIXED CAPITAL IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

The historical background and present methodology used in compiling the U.K. official estimates of the stock of fixed capital are described. Mention is made of the possibility that with the development of commercial accounting direct estimates of capital stock may be derived from enterprise accounts at some future time. For the present, however, an indirect perpetual inventory approach is followed. Some of the deficiencies of the present estimates are discussed including the effects of possible biases in the life-length assumptions, price indices and the treatment of secondhand assets. Estimates of gross capital stock are given analysed by industry group of ownership and by type of asset. Some conceptual issues are discussed in relation to user requirements, including the distinction between the stock of capital and the flow of services from it. The authors conclude that little can be done to improve the perpetual inventory estimate of fixed capital in the U.K. without devoting more resources to the collection and analysis of new information, particularly on the service lives of fixed assets, the extent of leasing and the transfer of assets between industries.     

AVAILABILITY OF HIGHER EDUCATION AND LONG‐TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH*

In the present paper, we examine the economic growth effects of a limited availability of higher education in a simple endogenous growth model with overlapping generations. It is shown that this limited availability might promote economic growth by increasing aggregate savings. If the supply of human capital is restricted, its price remains high and a large share of aggregate output is distributed to young households, which need to save for their old age. When this growth‐enhancing effect is strong enough, an excessive increase in availability leads to a shortage of investable funds, which substantially reduces economic growth.