新一轮国际粮食价格上涨：原因及对中国市场的影响

[目的]随着中国粮食进口不断增加,国内外市场联系越来越紧密。2020年下半年以来,国际市场粮食价格快速上涨,对国内粮食市场产生一定影响,分析国际市场价格上涨的原因和影响对确保国内粮食供应稳定、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。[方法]文章分析了2019年以来小麦、大米、玉米、大豆4种粮食产品的国内外价格走势,从供需状况、贸易政策、气候变化等因素分析国际市场价格波动的原因,并探讨了国际价格对国内价格的影响。[结果]当前全球主要粮食品种供应充足,库存仍处于较高水平,此轮国际粮食价格上涨主要是受到美国等发达国家宽松的货币政策以及疫情后全球消费逐步回暖的影响;但国际市场价格上涨对中国市场的影响总体有限,国内小麦、大米、玉米价格上涨的主因是国内消费回暖和生猪产能恢复带动的饲用需求快速增长,油用大豆受国际市场的影响较大。[结论]为稳定国内粮食市场,避免国际市场的冲击,中国要进一步提升粮食综合生产能力,强化科技支撑,加强粮食储备管理,健全政策支持体系,并引导居民建立科学的消费观念。     

入世与绿色食品营销

入世把中国市场与世界市场紧密的连为一体 ,许多行业都会感受到国际市场极富挑战性的冲击。绿色食品业作为国民经济新增长点的新兴行业历经十几年的发展 ,在这与国际市场接轨的时机 ,应如何面对入世的机遇与挑战。本文着重从市场竞争方面分析入世对绿色行业造成的影响 ,认为绿色食品企业要不断地提高自己的市场竞争力 ,要从产品、定价、销售渠道、促销等方面制定有效的绿色食品营销策略 ,全方位拓展绿色食品市场     

储备粮运作与粮食价格变动关系的实证分析

我国储备粮运作在平抑粮价方面没有发挥应有的作用。文章在无法直接获取粮食储备总量的情况下,根据假设条件计算出粮食储备量的增量数据,分析了储备粮规模变动与粮食价格变动的关系,发现储备粮在平抑市场粮价波动方面虽然有一定效果,但不是很显著,储备粮的运作存在一定程度的"逆向操作"现象。因此,文章建议将粮食储备的目标定位于粮食安全,进一步理顺国家和地方粮食储备的关系,在储备粮运作中引入期货市场机制。     

Crisis Behind Closed Doors: Global Food Crisis and Local Hunger

The high and volatile food prices in 2007–8 triggered estimates of massive increases in poverty and hunger. However, hunger and volatile food prices have long been a feature of developing economies. This paper examines the impact of high global food prices on domestic terms‐of‐trade, food consumption and child undernutrition in the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Liberia and Sierra Leone, comparing findings with the impacts of ‘seasonality’. As high international food prices permeated domestic markets, households in all the case study areas resorted to coping strategies common in the annual hunger season. Though acute malnutrition has not risen as consistently as in a seasonal hunger crisis, reduced micronutrient intake threatens to have severe long‐term consequences for health and poverty reduction. The similar impacts of seasonal and global food price rises on households provide an opportunity to design appropriate interventions to protect livelihoods.     

粮食金融化视角下粮食安全问题思考

粮食金融化是目前威胁粮食安全的重要因素,文章利用文献分析的方法,对粮食安全与粮食金融化的含义进行界定,阐述基于粮食金融化视角下,中国面临的粮食安全问题。并从粮食生产收益降低、经济运行使宏微观风险增加、粮食生产分散、粮食企业过度集中及粮食的价格受到流动性与供需因素的双重影响等方面分析了粮食金融化背景下威胁粮食安全的重要原因。据此,提出了推进土地流转制度改革,实现粮食集约化生产;加强国际粮食贸易合作;加强市场信息化建设,培养专业化人才;大力培育粮食龙头企业,进一步完善粮食主产区补贴制度;完善金融支持体系,确保粮食价格稳定;不断开发粮食期货品种,增加套期保值功能等6项对策意见,以应对粮食金融化带来的风险,确保国家粮食安全稳定。     

Cross country maize market linkages in Africa: integration and price transmission across local and global markets

In order to study short‐run price shock propagation, we model twenty seven Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) domestic maize markets within a Global Vector Autoregression framework. The main purpose is to fully embed multilateral trade flows as a way to better structure local price transmission dynamics and interdependencies, and get a more comprehensive picture of food price shocks propagation. We found significant between‐country market contagion and prompt regional price shock propagation when trade connection exists. Yet, the integration of SSA domestic maize markets within the continent and with global markets remains generally weak. Furthermore, under regular market conditions, most local price series appear to be more responsive to regional neighbors than to global shocks.     

Food Price Pass‐Through and the Role of Domestic Margin Services

The recent volatility in international agricultural markets has drawn attention to the impact of rising international agricultural prices and the induced price‐insulating measures on consumer food prices. Analyses based on simulation models on this topic typically ignore the role of domestic margin services. We extend the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to allow for variations in the share of domestic margin services in consumed food across countries. This approach enables us to differentiate consumer prices from producer prices. Following the extension, the results show that domestic margin services reduce the consumer food price volatility for all countries, especially in high‐income countries, where the share of domestic margin services in final food consumption is higher. The effect of price‐insulating border policies is also reduced in the extended model. We find that our extension of the GTAP model greatly improves simulations of the 2007 surge in international agricultural prices. We validate our extension of the GTAP model by showing that the econometrically estimated food price pass‐through is decreasing with income and thus, is smaller in high‐income countries.     

Price shock transmission: evidence from the wheat‐bread market value chain in Ethiopia

This study assesses the degree of vertical price transmission along the wheat‐bread value chain in Ethiopia. This is pursued by applying a vector error correction model and an impulse response analysis using monthly price data for the period 2000–2015. Our analysis considers transmission of price shocks across different market levels, including from the international and domestic wheat grain markets at the upstream to the domestic wheat bread market at the downstream of the value chain. The empirical findings indicate that significant cointegration exists across prices of the different market stages. There is a transmission from international prices to domestic prices at downstream markets, in particular to flour and bread prices. Prices at upstream markets are largely influenced by the domestic wholesale market. In general, the speed of adjustment is quite slow with a half‐life of about one year for restoring the equilibrium price relationship. As price margins between the different market stages in the value chain have substantially decreased in the last 15 years, higher transmission, and thus exposure to international market shocks, can be expected in the future. The results also show that causal relationships exist between prices at different market stages—with the wholesale market identified as the key market level where prices and price expectations are formed.     

Rivalry in Price and Variety among Supermarket Retailers

Recent theoretical models of retail competition suggest that product heterogeneity is critical to retail price and variety strategies. This article provides empirical evidence on supermarket retailers' price and variety strategies using a nested constant elasticity of substitution (NCES) modeling framework. The model is estimated using chain-level scanner data for four major grocery chains in a large, urban West Coast market. The results show that retailers compete for market share using both price and variety. While they all tend to follow moderately cooperative pricing strategies, the extent to which they follow cooperative strategies in variety is less homogeneous.     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击粮食安全:趋势、影响与应对

新冠肺炎疫情在全球加速扩散蔓延,引发全球粮食市场异常波动以及对中国粮食安全的担忧。疫情对后期全球粮食生产与贸易的影响将进一步加大,全球粮食市场波动有可能进一步升级。随着全球金融市场充分释放流动性,国际投机资本若炒作农产品市场,爆发类似2008年粮食危机的风险将越来越高。分析表明,中国粮食安全保障体系总体上可从容应对全球粮食市场波动升级的挑战,但大豆等农产品进口需防控国际市场波动风险。本文认为,要高度重视全球粮食市场波动的可能风险和挑战,必须加强监测、及早谋划,系统应对、综合施策。包括:有效管控输入性不稳定预期对国内粮食市场的干扰和冲击;进一步强化粮食生产能力建设;构建国家粮食安全保障风险治理体系;完善重要农产品储备体系;强化农产品全球供应链管理;加强国际粮食安全、贸易和投资政策协调。     

Agricultural price distortions: trends and volatility,past, and prospective

Historically, earnings from farming in many developing countries have been depressed by a pro‐urban bias in own‐country policies, as well as by governments of richer countries favoring their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies reduced global economic welfare and agricultural trade, and added to global inequality and poverty. Over the past three decades, much progress has been made in reducing agricultural protection in high‐income countries and agricultural disincentives in developing countries. However, plenty of price distortions remain. As well, the propensity of governments to insulate their domestic food market from fluctuations in international prices has not waned. Such insulation contributes to the amplification of international food price fluctuations, yet it does little to advance national food security when food‐importing and food‐exporting countries equally engage in insulating behavior. Thus there is still much scope to improve global economic welfare via multilateral agreement not only to remove remaining trade distortions but also to desist from varying trade barriers when international food prices gyrate. This article summarizes indicators of trends and fluctuations in farm trade barriers before examining unilateral or multilateral trade arrangements, together with complementary domestic measures, that could lead to better global food security outcomes.     

Green Food Consumption in China: Segmentation Based on Attitudes Toward Food Safety

ABSTRACT

The objectives of this report are twofold: to examine the demographic factors that drive demand for green food and to segment Chinese consumers based on their attitudes toward food safety. An online survey was used to collect consumer behavior information. A total of 402 responses were obtained covering participants who lived in 24 provinces and municipalities in China. Probit modeling, analysis of variance, and cluster analysis are used. Income, education, age, gender, presence of young children, household size, and overseas experience are variables that have an impact on green food purchase. Young, wealthy men, who have young children and live in a small household, are likely to buy green food. The survey shows that Chinese consumers are willing to pay a price premium for green food; however, price will be a major factor restricting the growth of the green food label in China, given market prices. Three segments―the “distrustful consumer,” the “ambivalent consumer,” and the “trusting consumer”―are identified for market segmentation purposes.     

海南省水产品区域品牌建设策略研究——基于SWOT分析法

产品在市场竞争中的制胜关键依赖于其质量和品牌,水产品作为海南省出口创汇的的重点项目,相关水产企业却缺乏区域品牌意识,造成海南水产品在国际市场乃至国内市场知名度不高,优质不优价,缺乏市场竞争力。本文详细阐述了海南省水产品现状,运用SWOT分析法分析了目前海南水产行业的内外部环境,并提出强化海南水产品区域品牌建设的相关策略,旨在提高海南水产品在国内外市场的知名度,以增强品牌竞争力。     

New plant engineering techniques,R&D investment and international trade

New plant engineering techniques (NPETs) may significantly improve both production and quality of foods. Some consumers and regulators around the world might be reluctant to accept such products and the global market penetration of these products may remain low. We develop a parsimonious economic model for R&D investment in food innovations to identify conditions under which NPET technology emerges in the context of international trade. The framework integrates consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for the new food, the uncertainty of R&D processes, the associated regulatory cost of approval, and the competition between domestic and foreign products. With generic applicability, the model enables the quantitative analysis of new foods that could be introduced in markets and then traded across borders. We apply the framework to a hypothetical case of apples improved with NPETs. Simulation results suggest that import bans and high values of sunk cost can reduce R&D investment in NPETs to suboptimal levels.     

Consumer preferences for new technology: apples enriched with antioxidant coatings in Uzbekistan

Food markets in developing countries are experiencing an expansion of new functional products. Even though their market share is small, these food products are usually imported and post a higher price compared to local products. In this article, we investigate the consumer response toward new functional food products in Uzbekistan by focusing on the incorporation of apples enriched with antioxidant coating in the food market. We conduct consumer surveys with two different information treatments. We utilize a dichotomous‐choice contingent valuation methodology to estimate willingness to pay for this product and analyze factors that affect consumer choice. The results suggest that the average Uzbek respondent is willing to purchase functional apples with a 6% discount. The effect of information regarding the potential health benefits of antioxidants is positive and statistically significant. We compare the findings with a previous U.S. study of the same product and discuss how the delivery method provides an additional hurdle in the Uzbek market.     

Are We Moving Towards Functioning Agricultural Markets and Trade Relations?

We introduce a special feature on the functioning of international agricultural markets. This feature is motivated by the increased interest in the functioning of commodity markets raised by unprecedented price turbulences since 2008, major structural changes through changed roles of emerging economies and related concerns regarding food security. We argue that the delineation of non‐functioning markets from markets that adequately adjusted to adverse framework conditions lacks theoretical foundation. We discuss the relevance of some results on institutions for agricultural markets in emerging and transition countries. A synthesis of the articles included in the special feature is provided by highlighting the selection of topics that span a topical range covering price formation on world and domestic markets, market power and trade policy modelling.     

Transaction Cost Thresholds in International Rice Markets

Recent episodes of high and volatile prices for grains such as rice have raised concerns about their implications for hunger and poverty. We model price relationships between international rice prices and 221 domestic prices in 47 developing countries that import rice. We use a threshold vector error correction model that accounts for transaction costs of trade in spatial price transmission, and an improved regularised Bayesian threshold estimator for threshold models. Our results show that threshold values are higher after 2008 than before, which suggests that transaction costs in international rice trade have increased in recent years. Threshold values are highest for Latin American countries followed by African and Asian countries, and higher for retail than for wholesale prices. Since 2008, price transmission is slower in countries that responded to high and volatile prices with domestic market‐based interventions such as price controls and faster in countries that responded by lowering tariffs and by implementing production support measures.     

Factors Affecting European Food Retailers' Internationalisation

Abstract

This paper aims to identify the critical factors that support European food retailers' internationalisation via an investigation of the importance of Dunning's eclectic paradigm advantages (ownership, location and internalisation). Senior managers from seven firms that operate in the Greek food multiple retail sector were interviewed, and three propositions were put on test.

In general, the findings indicate the critical role of the internalisation advantage during the international expansion of European food multiple retailers into that market.

The findings also reveal that this advantage is the main superior and sustainable competitive element that European food multiple retailers possess when competing with local firms. The latter can be considered as an extension to the findings of previous studies that have exclusively emphasised the importance of ownership advantage factors in the course of the retail internationalisation process.     

中国苹果国际竞争力实证研究

该文采用国际市场占有率和贸易竞争指数两个状态指标,以3个苹果出口贸易大国为参照,考察了10年间(1994～2003)中国苹果的国际竞争力。结果表明,中国的苹果在国际市场上有一定竞争力,但是与其他苹果大国相比还有很大差距。中国苹果在国际市场上一直具有价格优势,出口价格并不是影响中国苹果国际竞争力的主要因素,影响中国苹果国际竞争力的因素主要是非价格因素,包括苹果质量、品种、流通和营销等。文章最后提出了增强中国苹果国际竞争力的几点建议。