Does a long‐term orientation create value? Evidence from a regression discontinuity

Research summary : In this paper, we theorize and empirically investigate how a long‐term orientation impacts firm value. To study this relationship, we exploit exogenous changes in executives' long‐term incentives. Specifically, we examine shareholder proposals on long‐term executive compensation that pass or fail by a small margin of votes. The passage of such “close call” proposals is akin to a random assignment of long‐term incentives and hence provides a clean causal estimate. We find that the adoption of such proposals leads to (1) an increase in firm value and operating performance—suggesting that a long‐term orientation is beneficial to companies—and (2) an increase in firms' investments in long‐term strategies such as innovation and stakeholder relationships. Overall, our results are consistent with a “time‐based” agency conflict between shareholders and managers. Managerial summary : This paper shows that corporate short‐termism is hampering business success. We show clear, causal evidence that imposing long‐term incentives on executives—in the form of long‐term executive compensation—improves business performance. Long‐term executive compensation includes restricted stocks, restricted stock options, and long‐term incentive plans. Firms that adopted shareholder resolutions on long‐term compensation experienced a significant increase in their stock price. This stock price increase foreshadowed an increase in operating profits that materialized after two years. We unpack the reasons for these improvements in performance, and find that firms that adopted these shareholder resolutions made more investments in R&D and stakeholder engagement, especially pertaining to employees and the natural environment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How Does Mortgage Debt Affect Household Consumption? Micro Evidence from China

The high growth rate of mortgage debt in various emerging and developed economies has captured headlines following the financial crisis. In this article, we investigate how mortgage debt impacts household consumption behavior and various components of household consumption. Utilizing comprehensive household survey data from China, we show that households with a mortgage consume a higher portion of income than households without a mortgage. This is in line with the argument that having a mortgage reduces the uncertainty that the household faces regarding how much to save each month in order to be able to own a house, and this reduced uncertainty leads to lower monthly savings for the purpose of buying a house. We also find that among households with a mortgage, those who spend a larger share of their income on mortgage payments spend less on consumption, reflecting the crowding out effect of mortgage payments on household consumption. Furthermore, we show that a government policy of decreasing the maximum loan‐to‐value ratio has a significant impact on households’ consumption. The article offers the first evidence of the impact of growing mortgage debt on the consumption behavior of households, and will have implications for government policies that encourage mortgage borrowing.     

Do Low‐Price Guarantees Guarantee Low Prices? Evidence from Competition between Amazon and Big‐Box Stores

It has long been understood in theory that price‐match guarantees can be anticompetitive, but to date, scant empirical evidence is available outside of some narrow markets. This paper broadens the scope of empirical analysis, studying a wide range of products sold on a national online market. Using an algorithm that extracts data from charts, I obtain a novel source of data from online price trackers. I examine prices of goods sold on Amazon before and after two big‐box stores (Target and Best Buy) announced a guarantee to match Amazon's prices. Employing both difference‐in‐difference and regression‐discontinuity approaches, I robustly estimate a positive causal effect of six percentage points. The effect was heterogeneous, with larger price increases for initially lower‐priced items. My results support anticompetitive theories which predict price increases for Amazon, a firm that did not adopt the guarantee, and are consistent with plausible mechanisms for the heterogeneous impact.     

Does Unemployment Lead to Greater Alcohol Consumption?

Using panel data from Waves 1 and 2 of the NESARC, we estimate gender‐specific effects of changes in employment status on overall alcohol consumption, binge‐drinking episodes, and a diagnosis of alcohol abuse and/or dependence. We employ various fixed‐effects models to address potential bias from unobserved and time‐invariant individual heterogeneity. All results show a positive and significant effect of unemployment on drinking behaviors, and the findings are robust to numerous sensitivity tests. Perhaps, macroeconomic policy decisions intended to stimulate the economy during economic downturns should also consider the avoided personal costs and externalities associated with alcohol misuse.     

Does Temporal Aggregation Explain the Persistence of the S&P/Case‐Shiller Indices? Evidence from a Longitudinal Specification

Temporal aggregation is a repeat sale index construction methodology that consists of aggregating paired‐transactions in a moving‐average window. In particular, the methodology is used to calculate the popular S&P/Case‐Shiller home price indices. In this article, I focus the insights of the literature on measurement error to demonstrate that temporal aggregation produces idiosyncratic biases in predictive regression slopes. I further estimate a dynamic instrumental variable (IV) panel for the 20 S&P/Case‐Shiller metro areas. The main empirical finding is that temporal aggregation is a short‐lived statistical disturbance that does not explain the homogenous robust persistence of the indices.     

Are There Gains to Joining a Union? Evidence from Mexico

Union density in Mexico has been in decline since the 1980s. This article provides evidence on the worker compensation gains (losses) made by males upon joining (leaving) a union. These are estimated using a nationally representative labour market survey covering 2005q1–2016q1. The transitions between non‐union and union status are investigated using a difference‐in‐difference estimator. The findings suggest that joining a union is associated with modest wage gains, contrary to what the literature has shown for most industrialized nations. However, in contrast to this, some union leavers are found to experience a decrease in wages. This article also contributes to the wider literature by providing the first estimates of the longitudinal gain (loss) associated with joining (leaving) a union with respect to non‐wage benefits. The findings show joining (leaving) a union increases (decreases) the probability of being in receipt of legally guaranteed benefits such as bonuses and paid holidays. This suggests that although union density may be in decline, unions still have an important role to play in voicing worker's preferences with respect to compensation and ensuring that employers comply with the law.     

Does business group affiliation encourage R&D activities? Evidence from India

The decision to undertake investment in innovative activities is an important strategic choice made by firms. This study investigates the relationship between business group (BG) affiliation and research & development (R&D) activities of Indian firms. Using an empirical approach that accounts for endogeneity and selection bias, we observe that BG affiliation has significant positive influence on the sample firms’ R&D activities. Employing various proxies for institutional development, we show that the effect of BG affiliation on R&D declines with the improvements in institutional and regulatory mechanisms. Further, this study explores the linkages between diversification strategies at the group level and R&D investments by firms affiliated with BGs. Results show that degree of related diversification is positively associated with the affiliates’ innovation efforts.     

Does Buyer Experience Pay Off? Evidence from eBay

This study explores the relationship between buyer experience and final price in Internet auctions for a homogenous product. We find that more experienced buyers are able to purchase a homogenous product at lower prices, on average, compared to relatively less experienced buyers. The findings are robust to how we account for instances when auctions fail to result in a sale or when they end via the “Buy it Now” option. This result supports findings from the experimental auction literature on auction performance and experience using real auction data.     

Do Multi‐Plant Firms Reduce Misallocation? Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing

Using Canadian plant‐level data, this paper shows that, depending on the industry, the differences in the average plant‐level productivity and cross‐plant allocation of resources between multi‐plant and single‐plant firms account for 1 to 15 per cent of the industry‐level TFP. A large part of this contribution stems from more efficient cross‐plant allocation of resources, measured by the covariance between plant size and productivity, in the pool of plants in multi‐plant firms compared to the pool of plants in single‐plant firms. There is less dispersion in the marginal products of the inputs, and thus less misallocation, in industries in which multi‐plant firms account for a larger share of output. The patterns found in the cross‐plant distribution of productivity and size are also consistent with better allocative efficiency among plants in multi‐plant firms than among plants in single‐plant firms.     

Does Antitrust Enforcement in High Tech Markets Benefit Consumers? Stock Price Evidence from FTC v. Intel

Antitrust enforcement efforts in the United States and abroad have been ramped up in high-tech industries, which has rekindled older and largely unresolved debates concerning the appropriate role of antitrust enforcement in high-tech markets. This paper evaluates the likely competitive effects of Intel’s conduct through two approaches: The conventional approach focuses on traditional antitrust metrics in product markets: prices and output. The second, alternative approach involves turning to financial markets for valuable information. Under either approach, the available data do not support the theory that Intel’s behavior harmed consumers.     

Does agricultural trade affect productivity? Evidence from Chilean farms

This paper analyzes the relationship between trade and agricultural productivity in Chile, a middle-income country with a recent noticeable history of agricultural trade. This study uses an agricultural commodity trade exposure index in a cross-sectional analysis of more than 70,000 farms to study the relationship between the trade exposure of agricultural commodities and the yields reported by these farms in the 1997 Chilean agricultural census. In order to capture both import and export exposure we subdivide farms in two groups, according to the Chilean case: farms producing only importables such as grains (traditional crops), and farms producing both traditional crops and non-traditional agricultural commodities (products more related to export markets). We exclude from our analysis farms producing only non-traditional products because the census only reports yields for traditional crops. We employ a switching regression model to analyze the effects of trade exposure on traditional crop yields for both groups of farms. Results show that the trade exposure index is positively related to farm yields for both groups, but with a larger effect on farmers producing both traditional and non-traditional commodities. These results are important because they suggest that spillovers from both importables and exportables produce gains in the productivity of traditional crops.     

Is Netflix a threat to the cable TV industry? Evidence from Brazil

In recent years, the Brazilian cable TV industry has experienced a sharp downturn. In parallel, the over-the-top platform Netflix gained popularity and Brazil has become one of its biggest markets. The objective of this paper is to investigate the competitive effects of Netflix's entry on the incumbent cable TV industry. We explore the regional variability of Netflix's popularity (measured by Google Trends) and combined this information with official data of the cable TV market. Using a two-way fixed effects estimator with state-month observations (covering the period of 2012–2019), we showed that the increase in one standard deviation in Netflix popularity is associated with a 3.62% reduction in the density of cable TV subscribers and with a 19.69% reduction in the number of small firms that operate cable TV.     

When Is Employee Retaliation Acceptable at Work? Evidence from Quasi‐Experiments

When is employee retaliation acceptable in the workplace? We use a quasi‐experimental design to study the acceptability of several forms of retaliatory behavior at work, gathering data in this untested area. Consistent with hypotheses from theories of fairness, we find that employee retaliation in the workplace is perceived to be more acceptable if it is an act of omission instead of an act of commission. We do not find that a more damaging retaliatory act is significantly less acceptable than a less damaging one, suggesting a qualitative rather than a quantitative relationship. We also find individual differences: Respondents who are older, female, politically conservative, and managers typically show less tolerance for retaliation, while union members are a bit more accepting than average.     

Does the digital economy generate a gender dividend for female employment? Evidence from China

Using data from the China General Social Survey, the China Family Panel Studies, and a unique dataset of enterprises' online recruitment, this research examines the effect of the digital economy on female employment. The empirical results suggest that the digital economy significantly promotes female employment. Consistent with our theoretical analysis, the estimates indicate that this relationship holds because the digital economy promotes the formation of egalitarian gender perspectives, promotes the use of digital technology, and increases labor demand emphasizing the necessity for female-preference occupations. The dividend of the digital economy is tilted toward vulnerable groups in the labor market, including the low-skilled, older, and rural workforce, and only exerts an employment promotion effect on women without parenting burden. Further examination reveals evidence that digitalization has not led to a holistic improvement in the quality of female employment. Digitalization lengthens the working hours of severely underemployed female workers, and improves women's occupational status and job satisfaction; however, it has a minimal impact on protecting employees' rights and interests or reducing overtime workers' work intensity. Nonself-employed, full-time, and part-time workers all benefit from the development of the digital economy, while self-employed workers do not. In addition, a weakening effect of digitalization on the gender employment gap is not evident, which relates to the digital economy generating a female dividend in terms of promoting gender equality and increasing labor demand but resulting in a digital gender divide in the use of digital technology.     

Does complexity deter customer‐focus?

Economic models suggest that firms use a simple cost‐benefit calculation to evaluate customer requests for new product features, but an extensive organizational literature shows the decision to implement innovation is more nuanced. We address this theoretical tension by studying how firms respond to customer requests for incremental product innovations, and how these responses change when the requested innovation is complex. Using large sample empirical analyses combined with detailed qualitative data drawn from interviews, we find considerable variance in the relationship between customer demands, complexity, and investments in incremental innovations. The qualitative study revealed the importance of organization structures, competitive pressures, and incentives for resource allocation processes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does farm structure affect rural household incomes? Evidence from Tanzania

Many African countries have recently experienced rapid growth in the numbers of medium- and large-scale farms. These developments have generated considerable speculation about the impacts of farmland concentration and inequality on smallholder households and communities. This study exploits inter-district variation in farm landholding patterns in Tanzania to determine how differences in localized farmland structure affect rural household incomes using nationally representative household panel survey data. Because farm structure is a multifaceted concept, five alternative indicators of farmland structure are defined for 142 districts in Tanzania: (i) the Gini coefficient; (ii) skewness; (iii) coefficient of variation; (iv) share of controlled farmland under medium-scale farms; and (v) share of controlled farmland under large farms. These alternative farm structure variables are included in models of rural household income to test their effects after controlling for available household and community covariates. The study highlights four main findings. First, most indicators of farmland concentration are positively associated with rural household incomes. Second, household incomes from farm and non-farm sources are positively and significantly associated with the share of land in the district controlled by farms in the 5–10 and 5–20 ha category. Third, these positive spillover benefits are smaller and less statistically significant in districts with a relatively high share of farmland controlled by farms over 20 ha in size. Fourth, poor rural households are least able to capture the positive spillovers generated by medium-scale farms and by concentrated farmland patterns.     

Does competition increase quality? Evidence from the US airline industry

This paper studies the impact of competition on quality provision in the US airline industry exploiting a novel source of exogenous variation in competition. While mergers among market incumbents may stifle competition, a merger may increase the probability of entry if the merging airlines were not operating prior to merger in the market but each of them had presence at different route endpoints. We find non-merging incumbent airlines increase their flight frequency upon entry threat and accommodate entry of the newly merged airline by lowering flight frequency upon entry. While non-merging incumbents reduced arrival delays only upon entry of the newly merged airline, we find that incumbents decrease their cancelation rates and departure delays both upon merger announcement and entry of the newly merged airline. Our evidence suggests an increase in competition may increase consumer surplus, because non-merging incumbents increase quality and convenience, while keeping their prices unchanged.     

Does ICT create a new driving force for manufacturing?—Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms

The Internet has changed the global economic landscape. In particular, the fast-changing Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has directly led to a far-reaching impact on the production and operation of firms. Many previous studies have discussed the relationship of ICT and the total factor productivity (TFP) of firms, but failed to reach a consistent conclusion. This paper, based on the data of Chinese listed manufacturing firms from 2010 to 2019, explores the impact of ICT on manufacturing firms' TFP and its mechanism, and concludes that ICT have positive correlation with the TFP of manufacturing firms. According to the estimated results of this paper, TFP will increase by about 1.8 % for every 1 % of additional ICT investment. Through channel analysis, this paper finds that the positive effect can be achieved through the following four channels: cutting information search costs, enhancing information processing capabilities, reducing internal capital misallocation, and promoting R&D efficiency. This paper is a supplement to research on firm TFP, provides new micro-evidence for exploring the relationship between ICT and TFP of manufacturing firms, and brings important implications for understanding the role of ICT in firm production activities.     

Does A Firm's Entry or Exit Affect Competitors’ Value? Evidence from the REIT Industry

We analyze 483 entry and 439 exit events of publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) and find that changes in the number of REITs in the market affect rival REITs’ stock performance. We also partition the sample by the modes of entries and exits as well as by REIT asset type in order to disentangle alternative explanations. Overall, our evidence indicates that the supply effect still matters for stock prices even after considering signaling and price pressure explanations.