内生经济增长理论框架下的市场失效与财政政策

内生经济增长理论认为,知识和人力资本的外部效应与创新带来的垄断势力推动经济增长的同时,也会带来非帕雷托最优的经济增长收入分配的不公平,将阻碍经济增长;加快知识和人力资本积累、促进技术进步以及缓解收入分配不公平的财政政策能纠正市场失效,使长期经济增长达到社会最优.     

税收、财政支出与内生经济增长

构建了基于财政支出、税收的内生经济增长模型,并推导出在给定税收、财政支出政策的变化路径时,经济会达到竞争性分散均衡,税率与经济增长存在倒-U型关系,政府投资性支出与经济增长之间正相关。利用中国省际面板数据进行实证检验显示,在我国经济运行中,总产出、消费、投资、政府投资性支出、税率、利息率、工资水平之间存在长期均衡关系。我国宏观税率为28.63%时达到最优值,政府投资性支出对经济增长率存在正向影响,但不同区域间存在较大差异性。     

Optimal Fiscal Policy with Endogenous Time Preference

This paper studies the role of Ramsey taxation under the assumption that the individual rate of time preference is determined by the publicly provided social level of education. We show how intertemporal complementarities of aggregate human capital can generate multiple equilibria and we examine the role of endogenous fiscal policies in equilibrium selection. Our analysis implies a lower optimal government size due to the effect of human capital on time preference.     

政策性农业保险中的内生最优财政补贴规模研究

政府对保险公司的财政补贴对促进农业保险的发展起着不可替代的作用。本文通过建立信息激励模型,分析了不同的信息环境下政府对保险公司提供农业保险的最优财政补贴规模。研究表明,在不完全信息条件下,为减少政府与保险公司之间的"道德风险",政府应引入其他易观测变量,并将其与保险公司经营农业保险的业绩共同作为财政补贴的依据,从而以更加稳定、有效的补贴规模最大限度地激励保险公司提供农业保险。     

Patent Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model

We investigate how the patent policy affects economic growth and social welfare based on an endogenous growth model with R&D activities. We show that the patent length that maximizes the social welfare is finite. Moreover, by introducing compulsory licensing, we also show that the patent length that maximizes the social welfare is not infinite even if the royalty rate can be controlled. Received June 29, 2001; revised version received February 5, 2002 Published online: February 17, 2003 We wish to thank two anonymous referees for their constructive comments. We also thank Akira Yakita for his helpful comments.     

Does Precommitment Raise Growth? The Dynamics of Growth and Fiscal Policy

We develop an endogenous growth model driven by externalities from both private and public capital. The government levies distortionary taxation to finance a publicly provided consumption good and public infrastructure. Firms face adjustment costs. We compare the optimal and time-consistent policies in a linear-quadratic approximation of the model. Although the time-consistent equilibrium is sub-optimal in terms of ex-ante intertemporal welfare, it yields higher long-run growth and welfare, through an accumulation of assets by the state and a cut in government consumption.     

我国新一轮经济增长要求适时调整积极财政政策

我国实施六年之久的积极财政政策在国民经济增长的数量效应方面效果显著,而在质量效应方面却有待商榷。适时调整积极财政政策,提高其在促进国民经济增长质量方面的效应应是财政政策未来的取向。     

Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate

Domestic fiscal and monetary policy settings can influence the strength of the Australia dollar in a number of different ways.     

Fiscal Transfers and Distributive Conflict in a Simple Endogenous Growth Model with Unemployment

Abstract. In the simplified formal treatment proposed in this paper, a decrease in a policy parameter – the ratio of total tax revenues to GDP – can monotonically increase long-term growth rate and may lead to a higher employment level. This notwithstanding, the paper shows that the redistributive implications of such a decrease may induce the wage earners to oppose it. As a consequence, policy-makers reflecting social preferences may undertake redistributive transfers generating persistent unemployment and lowering growth even if commitment technologies allowing them to follow preannounced tax policies were feasible.     

R&D、R&D溢出、内生增长和内生收敛

根据强调知识与技术创新、知识与技术溢出重要性的当代内生增长理论,本文建立了一个将R&D和R&D溢出与资本积累之间、R&D和R&D溢出与总产出增长之间直接关联起来的动态模型.面板数据协整检验实证分析结果表明R&D和R&D溢出与资本积累之间、R&D和R&D溢出与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的正面长期协整关联.进一步的分析表明,R&D与资本积累之间、R&D与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的长期双向格兰杰因果关系.由此观知,R&D乃长期经济增长源泉之所在.另一方面,尽管资本积累或总产出增长并不格兰杰导致R&D溢出,证据表明R&D溢出格兰杰导致资本积累和总产出增长.这种由R&D溢出到资本积累和总产出增长的单向格兰杰因果关系意味着尽管知识与技术的跨国传播并非必然发生,其实为世界经济增长的重要动力.     

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: the Role of Financial Intermediation

This paper analyzes the impact of public debt on financial efficiency in an overlapping‐generations model. We argue that public debt may reduce intermediation costs by increasing the collateral of entrepreneurs. This effect is stronger, the stronger the non‐Ricardian component of public debt, i.e. the more it is associated with intergenerational redistribution. This effect can be interpreted as future generations acting as a guarantee for the loans provided to the entrepreneurs of the current generation. Furthermore, multiple growth paths may arise as low taxes increase private collateral, which in turn boosts growth via financial efficiency, while higher growth allows to maintain the same debt/GDP ratio with reduced taxes.     

Growth Effects of Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability in the EU

In this paper we study the relationship of fiscal policy and economicperformance of some core countries in the EU. Our aim is to find outwhether public deficit and public debt have consequences for real variables in the economies we consider. The background of our empirical study is a growth model that provides us with some predictions on the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth. In a first step we then use Granger causality tests to analyze empirically whether some of the implications of our model arecompatible with the data. In a second step, we investigate whether the fiscalpolicies of the member states have been sustainable. Given this information,we then pursue the question of whether differences in the fiscal positions ofcountries have consequences as concerns the outcome of our empirical testsof step one. Finally, we study whether the impact of the public deficit ratiodepends on the magnitude of the debt ratio.     

Fiscal Policy,Economic Integration and Unemployment

In this paper fiscal policy is examined for an open economy characterized by unemployment due to efficiency wages. We allow for capital and firm mobility in a model where the government chooses the level of wage, source-based capital and profit taxation. The taxing choices of governments are analyzed in scenarios which differ with respect to the constraints imposed on the set of available taxes and on the mobility of firms. As a general result, the welfare loss from labor market imperfections increases when tax bases become internationally mobile, which suggests an increasing relevance of domestic labor-market reforms when tax bases become global.     

内生增长理论对我国财政政策的启示

内生经济增长理论提出知识积累、技术创新是导致一国经济实现长期持续增长的源泉。目前,我国经济中还存在一些制约经济增长的因素,限制了我国实现内生增长的路径。有效的财政政策是促进技术进步,实现经济内生增长的重要途径。为此,政府必须出台切实有效的财政政策,培育实现内生增长的技术创新的条件。     

Fiscal Policy,Expectations, and Exchange-Rate Dynamics*

This paper uses the sticky-price monetary model to analyze the effects of fiscal policy on the exchange rate under alternative assumptions about exchange-rate expectations. the use of different expectations mechanisms-specifically the perfect-foresight model and the popular models tested by Frankel and Froot: regressive, adaptive, and distributed-lag-is based on recent empirical evidence suggesting that exchange-rate expectations may not be rational. the most surprising finding in the paper is that with adaptive and distributed-lag expectations, fiscal expansion has no initial impact on the exchange rate, and the same may be true for regressive expectations.     

实施积极财政政策向可持续财政政策转型的构想

积极财政政策虽然在扩大内需上已经有所作为,但由于其负面作用的存在而不具有可持续性。为实现我国可持续发展的长期战略要求,我们应当适时实施由积极财政政策向可持续财政政策的转变。因此,应当对现行的财政支出政策进行调整,防范直接与间接财政风险的扩大化,完善现行税制,运用财政政策促进人力资本可持续发展。     

Monetary and Fiscal Management, Finance, and Growth

This paper addresses three related aspects of monetary and fiscal management in Europe and elsewhere. First, I discuss the implications of economic integration for monetary and fiscal policy, especially the narrow focus on low inflation as the main objective of monetary policy. I argue that because inflation springs from several sources, monetary authorities held responsible by law for maintaining low inflation need to exercise their newfound independence by reserving the right to address all sources of inflation. In this context, I also ponder the question as to whether the increased independence of fiscal policy from short-term political interference would be desirable. Second, I present new empirical evidence of the relationship between inflation, finance, and economic growth across countries, arguing that long-run growth considerations provide an important additional justification for why price stability ought to remain a priority of independent policy makers. Third, I review some further aspects of the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth, emphasizing the traditional three-pronged role of fiscal management: stabilization, allocation, and distribution, all of which can be conducive to growth. The argument leads to the conclusion that only the stabilization function of fiscal policy and, perhaps, some aspects of the allocation function as well could be usefully delegated in an attempt to immunize them from shortsighted and socially counter-productive political interference, but not the distribution function.     

税收、收入不平等和内生经济增长

企业家(通过金融中介)从家庭借贷来支撑创新。二者在企业家的努力不为外人所见的情形下双方签订信用合同分享创新带来的垄断利润(即蛋糕)。两个有代表性经济人(企业家和家庭)的存在允许人们在内生经济增长模型里研究收入不平等。本文研究发现,企业家分配份额的增加一开始会提升增长速度,但是过了一定值后会拉低增长速度;而该份额的增加一直拉大企业家和工人间的收入差距。所以降低企业家获得的蛋糕的份额的分配改革可缩小收入差距。提高企业家来自创新的收入的税率将降低他们的努力程度,从而降低增长速度,但是该税率的提高有助于降低收入不平等程度。存款收入的税率提高尽管不会改变企业家的努力程度,但是也会降低经济增长速度,而且不会降低收入不平等(如果工人有一定比例的存款)。对于劳动收入(工人工资)的税率增加会加剧工人和企业家间的收入不平等,但对经济增长速度没有影响。     

积极财政政策与财政风险问题分析

1998年以来,为了应对通货紧缩的经济形势,政府实施积极财政政策,运用财政反周期调节,刺激国内需求,拉动经济回升.但是,积极财政政策是一把双刃剑,既可以发挥治理通货紧缩的积极作用,同时也会带来负面影响,如果运用不好,将会产生很大的财政风险.为了确保国家财政安全与稳健运行,有必要对积极财政政策可能产生的风险进行分析和把握,并积极采取措施加以防范和化解,避免潜在的财政风险转化为财政危机.     

Endogenous Fertility, Income Distribution, and Growth

This article analyzes the interaction between growth and fertility via income distribution in a model in which fertility decisions are motivated by old-age support. It provides an explanation of the demographic transition of an economy from a stage of increasing fertility and low growth to a stage of low fertility, high human capital investments, and high growth.