货币供求的金融抑制假说

金融抑制是一种在发展中国家普遍存在的,由于对利率和汇率人为管制造成的金融系统的效率低下的现象.由于利率和汇率的管制,降低了持币成本,导致了货币的过度需求,从而进一步使得货币增长率长期高于实际GDP和通货膨胀之和,这便是中国的货币之谜.本文引入向量误差修正模型,针对金融抑制现象对货币需求的影响进行实证检验;结论表明中国的超额货币需求和高货币增长的现象一定程度上是由于金融抑制的影响,并以金融抑制假说解释了中国货币超额需求     

对我国“超额货币”成因的历史和现实考量

"超额货币"是我国转型和发展过程中的一个突出现象。本文在回溯我国改革开放以来经济金融发展历史的基础上,探讨了我国特有体制背景和改革路径影响货币供给机制、货币需求的机制,分析了我国独特的制度变迁过程、产业升级模式以及微观金融体制在"超额货币"形成中的作用。     

货币供求的金融抑制假说

金融抑制是一种在发展中国家普遍存在的,由于对利率和汇率人为管制造成的金融系统的效率低下的现象。由于利率和汇率的管制,降低了持币成本,导致了货币的过度需求,从而进一步使得货币增长率长期高于实际GDP和通货膨胀之和,这便是中国的货币之谜。本文引入向量误差修正模型,针对金融抑制现象对货币需求的影响进行实证检验;结论表明中国的超额货币需求和高货币增长的现象一定程度上是由于金融抑制的影响,并以金融抑制假说解释了中国货币超额需求。     

经济转型时期货币需求决定因素的理论与实证分析

货币需求理论的发展是一个通过证实和证伪不断创新的过程.西方各流派的货币需求理论在建立时对当时的货币经济现象做出了很好的解释,但随着科学技术的发展,各国经济系统的组织形式、经济金融结构发生了深刻变化,旧理论解释新问题出现了显著的偏差.本文从产权变迁、市场深化和金融发展的角度分析了货币需求的决定因素,并根据1978-2003年的有关数据对货币需求进行了计量分析,建立了实证分析模型,以期对我国转型时期的货币经济现象做出更确切的解释.     

超额货币与经济增长、物价的关系研究——基于中国与青海数据的实证分析

超额货币问题关系到以对货币供应量控制作为核心手段的货币调节工具是否有效,对于宏观经济金融形势的判断和货币政策的制定有着重要的意义。本文采用货币需求函数的测算方法分别对近年来中国和青海的超额货币程度进行了测算,深入分析了超额货币与经济增长、物价的关系,并提出了相关政策建议。     

经济转型时期货币需求决定因素的理论与实证分析

货币需求理论的发展是一个通过证实和证伪不断创新的过程。西方各流派的货币需求理论在建立时对当时的货币经济现象做出了很好的解释,但随着科学技术的发展,各国经济系统的组织形式、经济金融结构发生了深刻变化,旧理论解释新问题出现了显著的偏差。本文从产权变迁、市场深化和金融发展的角度分析了货币需求的决定因素,并根据1978-2003年的有关数据对货币需求进行了计量分析,建立了实证分析模型,以期对我国转型时期的货币经济现象做出更确切的解释。     

我国超额货币供给现象的影响因素分析

我国超额货币供给现象源于基础货币快速增长和货币乘数不断攀升的综合作用,外汇占款增长引发基础货币被动投放和商业银行信贷持续扩张.进一步加剧了超额货币供给.缓解超额货币供给现象,需要稳步推进汇率形成机制改革,减轻外汇占款对基础货币投放的压力;大力发展资本市场,降低企业融资对银行信贷的依存度;积极推进跨境贸易人民币结算,支持企业加快"走出去"步伐.     

金融交易与货币流通速度的波动北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文从实体经济和金融资产两个部门考察了近年中国的货币需求的变化。给定实际收入和利率,金融市场交易的活跃会增加货币的交易需求,这样货币流通速度会随金融交易活跃程度而反向变动。经验结果显示,2006年以后,36%的新增广义货币(M2)是由于股票交易额大幅上升引起的。这意味着新增货币不仅要满足实体交易增长的需要,还要满足金融交易增长的需要,超出实体经济增长的货币供应不会全部体现为通货膨胀。这一结果一定程度上解释了近年我国货币流通速度的波动和下降趋势,以及通货膨胀与货币增长关系不稳定的现象。这意味着货币政策的调整不应仅考虑商品市场价格变动,而忽视资产市场的交易需求。本文的结论还验证了,实体经济内部农业和非农部门的货币需求并没有显著差异,传统的"货币化"理论已不足以解释近十年中国货币流通速度的变动。     

我国货币迷失现象的形成机理及其政策选择

我国货币迷失现象具有客观性和累积性,不同货币层次、不同地区、不同部门之间的货币迷失程度存在较大差异.货币迷失现象主要源于经济中存在超额货币需求,货币化进程、虚拟经济发展、巨额不良贷款、收入分配差距扩大等都是形成货币迷失现象的重要因素,大量迷失货币对我国宏观经济运行和货币政策操作带来了新挑战.需要坚持总量控制、存量转化、结构优化和政策协调的原则,坚持在金融发展中逐步消除迷失货币的不利影响,重点是严格控制增量迷失货币和合理疏导存量迷失货币.     

浅析中国的国际收支与超额货币

随着我国经济的逐步开放,对外经济成分占据了越来越大的份额,对国民经济的影响也在逐渐增强。自2000年以来,我国国际收支的持续双顺差使得外汇储备不断攀升,国内随之出现了货币供给过剩的现象,随之到来的还有资本市场价格上升,人民币升值以及通货膨胀的压力。不少观点认为是国际收支活动引发了这一系列的状况。本文围绕这一问题作出详尽的分析,研究了国际收支对货币供给产生影响的机理,并具体分析了由国际收支所带来的超额货币量的大小。通过计算我们估计,从2001年到2003年,并不存在超额基础货币供给,而从2004年开始,超额基础货币呈现逐年增加的态势,在2007年超额基础货币达到6千5百亿左右,且超额基础货币自2002年以来的累积数量达到2万亿左右,从基础货币超额投放来看,现有经济中累积的超额广义货币供给量大概为8万7千亿。最后,本文提出了相关政策建议。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.