Unemployment dynamics,wage flexibility,and the NAIRU in Austria

This paper presents some empirical evidence of an increase of distributional pressures in the Austrian economy as reflected in a rise of the NAIRU over the past fifteen years. Employing a simple macroeconomic model of wage-price formation we have been able to establish that both the increase in employers' contributions to social security and the rising share of longterm unemployment associated with higher overall unemployment have exerted pressure on real product wages and, thus, have pushed up the equilibrium rate of unemployment. Even if this latter persistence effect in unemployment is ignored for a moment, the Austrian NAIRU seems to have approximately doubled since 1973. It should be noted, however, that despite of having trended upwards the Austrian NAIRU still compares very favourably with that of most other OECD countries. The estimation results reveal an impressive amount of real wage flexibility putting Austria among the top league in Europe. In particular, this stems from the fact that real product wages seem to be easily adapted to external price shocks and productivity shocks.

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Zusammenfassung Die Arbeit untersucht die Entwicklung der NAIRU in österreich unter Verwendung eines makroökonomischen Lohn-Preisbildungsmodells. Die empirischen Ergebnisse zeigen auf, daß in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten sowohl die Erhöhung von Sozialversicherungsbeiträgen als auch die steigende Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit zu einer Erhöhung der NAIRU geführt haben. Gleichwohl zeichnen sich die Lohn-Preisbildungsmechanismen in Österreich durch eine im internationalen Vergleich hohe Absorptionsfähigkeit von Import- bzw. Produktivitätsschocks aus.

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Paper presented at the 1989 Conference of the Confederation of European Economic Associations, Barcelona, 25–26 May, 1989. I am indebted to participants at this conference and at seminars at the Wirtschaftsuniversität and the Institute for Advanced Studies, and to two referees of this journal for their comments and criticisms.     

Inflation adjustment in the open economy: an I(2) analysis of UK prices

This paper estimates a cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model for UK data on consumer prices, unit labour costs, import prices and real consumption growth. The estimated VAR indicates that the nominal variables are characterised by I(2) trends, and that a linear combination of these processes cointegrate to I(1). This supports an analysis in which I(1) and I(2) restrictions are imposed. A key finding is that an increase in real import prices reduces productivity adjusted real wages, such that the change in domestic inflation is moderated. This may explain why the depreciation of sterling in 1992 left inflation unchanged.

Sources of German unemployment: a structural vector error correction analysis

In this paper we analyze the sources of German unemployment within a structural vector error correction model (SVECM) framework. For this purpose we estimate a VECM model using data for unified Germany. The cointegration analysis reveals a long-run relationship between real wages, productivity and unemployment which is interpreted as a wage setting relation. Based on a reduced form subset VECM we identify structural shocks and assess their importance for unemployment by impulse response analysis, forecast error variance and historical decompositions. In contrast to previous studies for West Germany, we find that productivity, labor supply and labor demand shocks are important sources of unemployment in the long-run.

Erratum

The editors of the Journal, in attempting to simplify proofsin the appendix to the article ‘The Marxian theory ofvalue and heterogeneous labour: a critique and reformulation’,by Samuel Bowles and Herbert Gintis (vol. 1, no. 2), incurredcertain errors. Page 190, lines 1 to 2 should read: ‘isa quasi-irreducible matrix C^*<C such that ^*(C^*) = 0. SinceF(C^*<F(C) by Lemma 2, we have F(C^**) < 1 for all C^** suchthat C^* C^**C. Hence by Lemma 5, ^* is strictly less than . ThusL_r>’. Page 190, lines 7 and 8 should read: ‘issome number a>0 such that if we set C^* = aC, then ^*(C^*) =0. Clearly C^** is quasi-irreducible for all CC^**<C^*, andF(C^**) <1 for any such C^**=a'C. Hence by Lemma 5, we haveA^*>. But by Lemma 6, we have L_rx = ’.     

Involuntary unemployment,macroeconomic policy,and a behavioral model of the firm: Why high real wages need not cause high unemployment

The perspective of modern macroeconomic theory, be it new classical or old and new Keynesian, is that unemployment can be reduced only if real wages are cut. The modern Keynesians, basing themselves upon the microfoundations of efficiency wage theory, argue that real wages cannot and will not be cut by firms for efficiency wage reasons. This generates involuntary unemployment based on a market coordination problem. A behavioral model that contrasts with efficiency wage theory is presented here which suggests that reducing real wages need not affect the marginal cost of labor and, therefore, the number of individuals employed. In the behavioral model, wherein there exists some linearity in the relationship between real wages and working conditions and labor productivity, a lower real wage rate is not a necessary condition for reducing the unemployment rate nor is a higher real wage an obstacle to reducing it. In this scenario, unemployment, to the extent that it is demand-side induced, is not related to movements in real wages. Therefore, restoring full employment after a negative demand shock becomes a matter for demand management, not demand management that must be coordinated with measures designed to reduce real wages.     

Adolf Kozlik † (1912–1964)

Ohne Zusammenfassung

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Adolf Kozlik (1912–1964)

     

Wage differences between Austrian men and women: <Emphasis Type="Italic">semper idem?</Emphasis>

In most OECD countries, the wage gap between men and women has narrowed during the past two decades. Developments of the last 20 years, e.g., increased labour market attachment of women or the introduction of equal pay laws, may have reduced the gender wage gap. We investigate the extent, persistence, and socio-economic determinants of the gender wage gap in Austria, for the years 1983 and 1997. Using wage decomposition techniques, we find that the average gender wage gap was almost as high in 1997 as it was in 1983. Not accounting for differences, the gender wage gap dropped from 25.5 to 23.3% of men’s wages. Taking observable differences between men and women into account, we estimate that the mean gender wage gap that cannot be explained, i.e., discrimination against women, dropped from 17 to 14% of men’s wages. A decomposition of the gender wage gap over time indicates that both returns to human capital and less discrimination were responsible for the narrowing of the gender wage gap.

Fertility,income and welfare in an OLG model with regulated wages

We analyse the effects of the regulation of wages in a standard one-sector OLG model of neoclassical growth extended to account for endogenous fertility decisions of households and unemployment benefit policies financed at balanced budget. In contrast with the prevailing literature, which has failed to pay due attention to inter-temporal contexts, our conclusion is that minimum wages may be introduced not only for equity reasons, that is, to increase the income of low-paid workers, but under suitable conditions—i.e., if production is sufficiently capital oriented and the unemployment benefits are high enough—minimum wage legislation might be considered as a source of increased economic performance despite unemployment, i.e. a regulated-wage economy performs better than a market-wage economy. As a consequence, since higher minimum wages raise per capita income together with increasing unemployment, our results imply that a positive correlation between unemployment and long-run income per-capita may exist. Further, the lifetime welfare of the representative generation may be increased as well. Finally, the wage rate may also be treated as a policy instrument for the control of population growth.

Franz Redl † (1921–1965)

Ohne Zusammenfassung

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Franz Redl (1921–1965)

     

The Value of Air Quality in Chinese Cities: Evidence from Labor and Property Market Outcomes

Using a dual-market sorting model of workers’ location decisions, this paper studies the capitalization of air pollution in wages and property prices across Chinese cities. To account for endogeneity of air pollution in the determination of wages and property prices, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in air quality induced by a policy subsidizing coal-based winter heating in northern China, and document a discontinuity in average air quality for cities located north and south of the policy boundary. Using data for all 288 Chinese cities in 2011, we estimate an equilibrium relationship between wages and house prices for the entire system of Chinese cities, and specify a regression discontinuity design to quantify how variation in air quality induced by the policy affects this relationship locally. Our preferred estimates of the elasticity of wages and house prices with respect to \(\text {PM}_{10}\) concentration are 0.53 and \({-}\) 0.71 respectively. At the average of our sample, the willingness to pay for a unit reduction in \(\text {PM}_{10}\) concentration is CNY 261.28 (\(\simeq \) USD 40.50), with a significant share reflected in labor market outcomes.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Bargaining over productivity and wages when technical change is induced: implications for growth, distribution, and employment

I study a model of growth and income distribution in which workers and firms bargain à la Nash (Econometrica 18(2):155–162, 1950) over wages and productivity gains, taking into account the trade-offs faced by firms in choosing factor-augmenting technologies. The aggregate environment resulting from self-interested, objective function-maximizing decision rules on wages, productivity gains, savings and investment, is described by a two-dimensional dynamical system in the employment rate and output/capital ratio. The economy converges cyclically to a long-run equilibrium involving a Harrod-neutral profile of technical change, a constant rate of employment of labor, and constant input shares. The type of oscillations predicted by the model is qualitatively consistent with the available data on the United States (1963–2003), replicates the dynamics found in earlier models of growth cycles such as Goodwin (A growth cycle, in C.H. Feinstein (ed). Socialism, Capitalism and Economic Growth. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 1967. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1967); Shah and Desai (Econ J 91:1006–1010, 1981); van der Ploeg (J Macroecon 9:1–12, 1987); Flaschel (J Econ: Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie 44:63–69, 1984) and Sportelli (J Econ: Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie 61(1):35–64, 1995), and can be verified numerically in simulations. Institutional change, as captured by variations in workers’ bargaining power, has a positive effect on the long-run rate of growth of output per worker but a negative effect on long-run employment. Economic policy can also affect the growth and distribution pattern through changes in the unemployment compensation, which also have a positive long-run impact on labor productivity growth but a negative long-run impact on employment. In both cases, employment can overshoot its new equilibrium value along the transitional dynamics.     

Productivity,earnings, and profit sharing — An econometric analysis of alternative models

The theoretical status of the relationship between productivity, wages, and profit sharing (PS) is poor. Only some alternative hypotheses can be formulated. From these explanations six different econometric models are derived. Using data of the German Socio-Economic Panel the models are estimated and tests and indicators are employed to choose the best model. Our investigation speaks in favour of hybrid simultaneous Tobit models where the level of profit sharing is positively correlated with productivity which induces positive wage effects on the one hand. But on the other hand the level of wages is also relevant to the question whether a firm introduces or decides to continuePS and which amount ofPS should be paid.What is obvious is not always true and introspection is a notoriously unreliable guide to empirical magnitudes. Blinder (1990, p.2)     

The demand for broad money in Norway, 1969–1993

Cointegration analysis is applied to investigate the long run relationships between money, prices, and wages in Norway. Broad money is determined endogenously, and monetary balances were exposed to large shocks during the period of financial deregulation in the midst of the 1980s. In the long run these shocks are absorbed, and a long run demand for money relationship is identified in which real money is determined by real income, the relative price on financial assets (the yield spread) and the relative price on goods (the own real interest rate). Money adjusts dynamically to changes in the exchange rate and private wealth. Domestic price inflation is affected by improted inflation including currency depreciation (a pass through effect), domestic cost pressure (unit labour costs), and excess demand in the product market (output gap effect).This paper was presented at the workshop Money Demand in Europe, at the Humboldt University in Berlin, October 10–11, 1997. Thanks to Erik, Biørn, Neil R. Ericsson and Grayham Mizon for their comments on previous versions of the paper and to two anonymous referees and the editors for helpful suggestions.     

Derzweite Band des Handbuchs der Finanzwissenschaft

Ohne Zusammenfassung Handbuch der Finanzwissenschaft. Zweite, völlig neu bearbeitete Auflage. Herausgegeben von Wilhelm Gerloff und Fritz Neumark. Zweiter Band. XII, 815 S. Tübingen: J. C. B. Mohr (Paul Siebeck). 1956.     

Employment cycles, low income work and the dynamic impact of wage regulations. A macro perspective

In this paper we investigate, against the background of Goodwin??s (1967) growth cycle model, a dual labor market economy and the consequences of introducing an unemployment benefit system and minimum wages in the second labor market and a maximum wage barrier in the first one. In the framework with free ??hiring?? and firing?? in the both labor markets we show (a) that in fact maximum real wages in the first labor market not only reduce the volatility of this labor market, but also provide global stability to the system dynamics if they are locally explosive, and (b) that larger fluctuations in employment can be made (at least partially) socially acceptable through a (workfare oriented) unemployment benefit system augmented by minimum wage in the low income segment of the labor market.     

Liberalization and the Changing Inter‐industry Wage Structure of the Organized Manufacturing Sector in India, 1973/74–2003/04

This paper examines the inter‐industry wage structure of the organized manufacturing sector in India for the period 1973/74–2003/04 by estimating the growth of average real wages for production workers by industry. Using wage data on 51 three‐digit industries, our estimation procedure obtains estimates of growth of real wages per worker that are wholly deterministic in nature by accounting for any potential structural break(s) associated with the reforms. Our paper identifies three distinct regimes—pre‐reform, first phase reforms and second phase reforms, over which real wages have grown at varying rates for each industry. Our findings suggest that the inter‐industry wage differences have become more pronounced in the post‐reform periods. The paper provides new evidence from India on the need to consider seriously the hypothesis that industry affiliation is potentially an important determinant of wages when studying any relationship between reforms and wages.     

Sparen und Einkommensverteilung

Summary The wage and salary bill in Austrian manufacturing industry is divided into a fixed and a variable part on the assumption that wages of skilled labour and salaries can be regarded as fixed, wages of unskilled and semi-skilled workers as variable cost. The excess of value added (factor incomes) over the variable wage cost (gross profit) is shown to be more stable in the trade cycle than the excess of value added over the total wage cost (net profit); this accords with the idea of a relatively stable mark-up on variable cost.As a proportion of value added, gross profit and even more net profit in the above sense decline gradually over the period 1956 to 1972. This would indicate a declining degree of monopoly or increasing degree of competition which presumably applies mainly to the export markets. The hypothesis is advanced that more active competition has taken place in foreign markets which enabled Austrian manufacturing to increase its share in those markets. The reduction in profit margins was made possible by tax allowances i.e. by the quick write-off a considerable part of new investment. This tax allowances amounts to an interest free government loan to the investor, which in fact will not be repaid of the depreciation funds are reinvested immediately after the equipment is fully written off. The proportion of the industry's capital which is in this sense financed by the government increases over time as investment expands; a profit rate has to be earned only on the remaining capital stock, so that without reduction of the return on private capital the profit margins may be reduced. (The tax allowances thus amount to a virtual reduction of the capital coefficient which proceeds gradually over a long time.)The paper finally shows the relation between the share of savings and the share of corporate incomes in the total private income during the cycle. The share of saving moves with the cycle and this is made possible by a shift to corporate income.     

Expectations of adult wages and teenage childbearing

The adult earnings of women and the age at which they initiated childbearing are well known to be positively correlated. Most previous research on teenage mothers has emphasized that early births reduce later earnings. This article explores whether the causality might run in the opposite direction: whether the expectation of low adult wages might increase the probability of teenage childbearing. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, and treating teenage motherhood, wages and education as jointly determined, this investigation gives strong support to the idea that low wages contribute to teenage childbearing.

I also explore two popular policy proposals for reducing the incidence of teenage childbearing: reducing transfer income and providing sex education courses. The former has only a very small effect on teenage childbearing; the latter is significant only for black adolescents.     

Regulatory Restrictions on Vertical Integration and Control: The Competitive Impact of Gasoline Divorcement Policies

Gasoline divorcement regulations restrict the integration of gasoline refiners and retailers. Theoretically, vertical integration can harm competition, making it possible that divorcement policies could increase welfare; alternatively, these policies may reduce welfare by sacrificing efficiencies. This paper attempts to differentiate between these possibilities by estimating a reduced form equation for the real retail price of unleaded regular gasoline. I find that divorcement regulations raise the price of gasoline by about 2.6¢ per gallon, reducing consumers surplus by over $100 million annually. This finding suggests that current proposals to further separate gasoline retailing from refining will be harmful to gasoline consumers.