Contributions of Econometrics to Public Policy Analysis in the Information Age

In this paper we model U.S. economic growth over the next 25 years. Despite the anticipated aging of the population, moderate population growth will provide growing supplies of labor well into the 21st century. Improvements in labor quality due to education and experience will also continue for some time, but will eventually disappear. Productivity growth for the U.S. economy will be below long-term historical averages, but labor-using technical change will be a stimulus for growth of labor demand. Year-to-year changes in economic activity will be primarily the consequence of capital accumulation. However, the driving forces of economic growth over the long term will be demography and technology. This is a revised version of the keynote speech that I delivered on 16 January 2009 at the 6th International Conference of Socionetwork Strategies, at Kansai University, Japan.     

A Microsimulation Model for Projections of Japanese Socioeconomic Structure

The Integrated Analytical Model for Household Simulation (INAHSIM) is a microsimulation model for the Japanese population that was first developed in the 1980s as a tool for household simulation. This study attempted to improve the conventional INAHSIM in order to construct a more comprehensive alternative that incorporates a larger number of social and economic elements. It also overcame the problem for simulation—the lack of kinship relations in the initial population—by imputing parent-child relationships between those parents and children who do not live together. This paper provides an overview of INAHSIM and adds certain details of the imputation that is essential for simulating the life event of “adult children resettling to care for their aged parents.” In addition, I will show the importance of the said life event in Japan by comparing the difference in the family type of elderly people between its future distribution with or without this life event. Finally, I will discuss the future possibilities for research on microsimulation models that will play an important role in policy making.     

A Statistical Analysis Between Consumer Behavior and a Social Network Service: A Case Study of Used-Car Demand Following the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011

When a large-scale disaster hits a community, especially a water-related disaster, there is a scarcity of automobiles and a sudden increase in the demand for used cars in the damaged areas. This paper conducts a case study of a recent massive natural disaster, the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011 to understand those car scarcities and demand in the aftermath of the catastrophe. We analyze the reasons for the increase in demand for used cars and how social media can predict people’s demand for used automobiles. In other words, this paper explores whether social media data can be used as a sensor of socio-economic recovery status in damaged areas during large-scale water-related disaster-recovery phases. For this purpose, we use social media communication as a proxy for estimating indicators of people’s activities in the real world. This study conducts both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. For the qualitative research, we carry out semi-structured interviews with used-car dealers in the tsunami-stricken area and unveil why people in the area demanded used cars. For the quantitative analysis, we collected Facebook page communication data and used-car market data before and after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011. By combining and analyzing these two types of data, we find that social media communication correlates with people’s activities in the real world. Furthermore, this study suggests that different types of communication on social media have different types of correlations with people’s activities. More precisely, we find that social media communication related to people’s activities for rebuilding and for emotional support is positively correlated with the demand for used cars after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. On the other hand, communication about anxiety and information seeking correlates negatively with the demand for used cars.     

中关村核心区：北部起航

中关村核心区北部起航,寄托了许多荣耀与梦想。期待在下一个十年,中关村历史的创造者们与世界同舞,看风舒云卷,听潮起潮落。我们始终相信：未来,值得期待。     

改变世界的七大创业想法

新的搜索引擎、替代电子邮件、取代大学、互联网影视、下一个乔布斯、寻回摩尔定律、不间断诊断,这7个野心勃勃的创业想法或许能再次改变世界。     

The Effect of Changes in Nuptiality Behavior after the 1980s on the Poverty Rate for the Elderly in Japan -Analysis Using a Dynamic Microsimulation Model-

The social security system in Japan was developed under the premise that postwar families represented the most common type of family. A “postwar famil” refers to a family in which: (1) men and women are married; (2) husbands work as regular employees and wives are dependent homemakers; and (3) husbands and wives seldom get divorced. Therefore, the social security system is particularly generous towards dependent wives and widows. However, these premises are no longer valid because Japanese nuptiality behavior has completely changed since the 1980s. Marriage rates have decreased and divorce rates have significantly increased. Nevertheless, society still suffers from a wage inequality between men and women. As a result, the number of never-married or divorced elderly women will increase, and these women might face a serious poverty risk in the future. In this study, the author makes simulations of the living arrangements and poverty rates for the elderly in Japan and evaluates the effect of changes in nuptiality behavior on these poverty rates using a dynamic microsimulation model. The simulation results indicate that changes in nuptiality behavior will affect the poverty rate for elderly women, but not for elderly men.     

智能家居：盛宴下的混战

谁能够成为标准的制造者和发布者,谁就能够执掌行业之牛耳。智能家居的标准之争将成为接下来国内外商业与科技巨头们竞争最为激烈的＂红海＂。走近家门,随着门锁开启的瞬间,家中的安防系统自动解除室内警戒,廊灯缓缓点亮,空调、新风系统自动启动,背景交响乐轻轻奏起;进入家中,轻点手机,电视屏幕徐徐拉开,电冰箱开始冷却食品;洗漱完毕准备晚休,窗帘定时自动关闭。入睡前,轻轻触动床头边面板上的＂晚安＂模式,室内所有需要关闭的灯光和电器设备进入休眠,同时安防系统自动开启处于警戒状态。     

海淀北部高新区——实创股份2011年建设与发展之路

在“中关村国家自主创新示范区核心区2011年支持科技创新政策兑现大会”上,海淀区区长隋振江表示,海淀区将在优化软环境建设的同时．加强基础环境建设,加大北部产业聚集区开发力度。而根据海淀区关于北部地区的规划,“到2020年,北部将建成具有全球影响力、产值过万亿、人口百万的科技创新基地．成为城乡统筹发展的典型地区和生态环境一流的城市发展新区。”这也是海淀北部区域未来十年的发展目标。     

Facebook Explore Feed: Perception and Consequences of the Experiment

The Review of Socionetwork Strategies - Facebook is the most used social network in the world. It dedicates a lot of energy and resources to developing and fine-tuning its algorithms, thus enabling...     

21万亿消费信贷为中国金融机构助飞

近几年,中国消费信贷开始腾飞.住房抵押贷款、信用卡和汽车贷款量保持强劲增长.这一趋势出现于各个财富阶层和年龄段,但中国最大城市的年轻和富裕消费者的借款可能性最大.然而,该市场仍处于初级阶段,许多金融机构正在努力开发有效的业务模式、建立优质的服务运作体系并深入分析消费者.     

中国资本市场20年之20大成就

过去的20年,是中国资本市场从无到有、从小到大的20年;未来的20年将是中国资本市场从乱到治、从大到强的20年。     

我们仍缺少“第三世界视野”

缺少＂第三世界的视野＂,其实容易造成我们的心理的失衡和焦虑。     

互联网四大“慢公司”的生存之道

知名财经作家吴晓波有一个经典比喻，他说真正好的企业家是老乌龟。每年身上都要长一层茧。壳很薄的时候。一踩就烂了，老乌龟就踩不坏．而且爬得慢。生命力有五六百年。     

“知其然，知其理当然”，知行一致共克肘艰——读《从怎么看到怎么办——理论热点面对面·2011》

代表先进阶级的正确思想，一旦被群众掌握，就会变成改造社会、改造世界的物质力量。——毛泽东     

研究智慧城市建设智慧海淀——访北京中海纪元数字技术发展股份有限公司副总经理尧川

自从2009年2月24日,IBM提出“智慧地球赢在中国”后,一时间,IBM“智慧地球”战略衍生的“智慧城市”概念在中国各地政府间掀起一股热潮,被大肆推广。2012年3月7日,北京市政府刚刚印发了《智慧北京行动纲要》,旨在明确智慧城市建设重点领域的发展目标、行动计划和关键举措。     

Social Network Rebuilder: A Tool to Estimate a Social Network of Financial Crisis Propagation

The objective of this paper is to find a new method to estimate real social networks based on observed data collected by questionnaire surveys. Studies on social networks have been increasing in order to analyze social phenomena from a micro viewpoint. Most social phenomena can be explained by micro-level interactions among people. Spread of rumor and pandemics are typical example of micro interaction? However, there has not been much work on an analysis of real social networks based on observed data. This study tries to establish a methodology that exploits a genetic algorithm to rebuild a social network based on the data observed indirectly from real social networks. This paper introduces our proposed method, which allows us to rebuild a social network to some extent from degree distributions of a target real social network.     

北京市软件和信息服务业创新转型路径图

在“十二五”期间,北京市将着力建成智能手机、网络社交、平板电脑、网络电视、电子书、企业应用、位置服务、视频聚合、个人应用软件、电子商务等十大国际上最为前沿的新兴产业链平台。     

掘金500亿美元可穿戴设备市场——访神念科技中国区总裁张彤

神念科技是世界上将生物传感技术带入消费领域的领导者,其研制出的能感应脑波的猫耳朵新玩具入选2011时代周刊年度50大最佳发明。"像现在我的猫耳竖起来,表示我正在兴奋状态!如果很放松,就会垂下来。在想事情就会动来动去!好好玩!"6月的一天,台湾电视主播吴依洁在Facebook上传了头戴能感应脑波的猫     

青年心态与大众文化

大众文化虽然有其局限,但其对于青年的心态和生活的正面的影响也不容小觑,对他们更加有韧性地面对社会问题有其积极的意义。这些年来,对于80后的关注一直是媒体和公众的热点。现在80后已经开始进入了30岁的门槛,逐渐进入人生的中年阶段的开始。现实的种种问题开始超越了想象,变得更加现实和具体。与此同时,90后的第一批大学生将在今年的暑期毕业走向社会。