上市公司会计信息与股票超额收益率关系的实证研究

从上市公司年报信息出发,本文首先借助FSCORE方法建立了对上市公司会计信息的综合分析评价方法,随后以上海证券交易所A股上市公司1998年4月至2007年4月的数据进行实证研究,分析上市公司会计信息综合评价所获分数的高低与公司股票前后连续三年的超额收益率的相关关系。研究结果表明：上市公司的T年年报会计信息综合评估得分与T-1年和T＋1年公司股果的超额收益率都没有显著的相关关系,而与当年的公司股票的超额收益率呈现出显著的正相关关系,该结论对大中规模公司仍然显著。     

UNSEASONED EQUITY OFFERINGS MBO-IPOs vs NON-MBO-IPOs

In this paper we examine the degree of under-pricing of two different types of unseasoned equity offerings (IPOs), namely MBO-IPOs and non-MBO-IPOs. Since, MBO-IPOs were previously subsidiaries or divisions of publicly listed companies which were taken private by a group of managers and then reverted back to public ownership; there should be a lower level of information asymmetry between the market on the one hand and the company and its underwriters on the other. Thus, if under-pricing is mainly the result of uncertainty about the market value of the issuing firm, the information asymmetry hypothesis would predict that, compared with the non-MBO-IPOs, MBO-IPOs should exhibit a significantly lower degree of under-pricing. The results show that MBO-IPOs are less under-priced than non-MBO-IPOs. However, the difference is not statistically significant.     

Comment on ‘earnings management around UK open offers’

This note discusses the result of Iqbal, A., S. Espenlaub, and N. Strong. 2008 Iqbal, A., Espenlaub, S. and Strong, N. 2008. Earnings management around UK open offers. European Journal of Finance, this issue [Google Scholar]. Earnings management around UK open offers. European Journal of Finance, this issue, regarding long-run abnormal returns following open offers and announcement abnormal returns, compared with differing results in two previous studies based on similar samples. A survivorship bias explains some of the differences in the reported long-run abnormal returns. The difference in the announcement abnormal returns could be due to use of different data sources.     

Corporate Sales, Equity Trading, and Risk

This paper proposes and investigates an explanation for a positive association between the signed value of common share returns and trading activity. The mixture of distributions model for stock returns and trading is applied with the added assumption that product sales for a firm is the directing process which generates the flow of information to equity markets. Because trading depends upon information arrival, sales and trading are positively related. Also, because contribution margin is positive, cash flows increase with sales. Dependence of both cash flows and trading on sales implies that returns and trading are also positively related. This explanation is tested in this paper.     

One More Step,Some More Performance? An Empirical Study on Initial Public Offerings in the Taiwan Emerging Stock Market

This paper investigates the performance effects of initial public offering policies in Taiwan's stock market from 1997 to 2006. We divide the listing channels into six models and test performance differences under each model, using nonparameter tests. We find that indirect listing methods perform better than do direct methods. The results suggest that the longer the processes take for corporations to terminate one market and move to the target final market, the better the firm performance. The results have important policy implications for the ability of a newly established emerging stock market initiative to channel capital into financial markets.     

基于资本流动逆转的货币危机理论——兼论我国应对危机冲击的策略选择

货币危机理论是当前国际经济学研究热点之一,在已有的三大危机理论中均有关于货币危机与资本流动的论述,但均是通过已构建的模型寻找货币危机和资本流动逆转的原因,而非阐述资本流动逆转与货币危机的内在关系,对当前因资本流动逆转所引发的货币危机缺乏解释力。本文拟从资本流动的宏观视角出发,运用数理模型推导汇率与资本流动内在关系表达式,利用资本流动模型构建资本流动逆转货币危机理论分析框架,探讨资本流动逆转货币危机对我国的影响和冲击,并提出应对之策。     

上海股票市场波动的非对称性和杠杆效应研究

基于人们对股票市场波动"利好"利坏"消息反应程度的不同,本文利用国外证券市场比较成熟的非对称ARCH族理论,对我国上海股票市场建立了ARCH、TARCH、EGARCH模型进行实证检验分析,得出上海股票市场的波动具有非对称性和杠杆效应,坏消息会导致比好消息更大波动性的结论。     

Discounts in Placing Pre-renounced Shares in Rights Issues

Abstract:  The paper presents evidence from UK rights issues on the discounts at which large blocks of new shares plus rights are sold. The shares are renounced by the shareholders entitled to them and placed with passive investors at substantial discounts of around 8% to the expected ex-rights midpoint price of the existing shares. Tests indicate that the discounts arise because of uncertainty about issuer value and inelastic demand for the shares rather than because the issuing companies are overvalued. The finding that selling renounced shares is costly removes an apparent advantage of rights issues compared with open offers and private placings.     

Is it Free Cash Flow, Tax Savings, or Neither?An Empirical Confirmation of Two Leading Going-private Explanations:The Case of ReLBOs

Firms which 'go private' via a leveraged buyout (LBO) retain the option to 'go public' again, a process known as a reverse LBO transaction. This paper examines the rarer phenomenon of reLBOs; that is, the practice of going private via leveraged buyout, reobtaining public status through a new initial public offering, and then going private a second time. Among the several alternative hypotheses explaining LBOs, we focus on two prominent ones – free cash flow and tax savings – to explain reLBOs. With a sample of 21 reLBO firms, we find no empirical support for the free cash flow hypothesis but detect a significant relationship between the decision to go private for the second time and the tax savings potential of the firm.     

Relative Excess Returns

Building on a no-arbitrage relationship suggested by Clare, Thomas and Wickens (1994) between the returns on equity, bonds and treasury bills, this paper develops what is termed a 'relative excess returns' approach to the understanding of movements in equity prices. This no-arbitrage relationship is used to derive an explicit measure of excess returns, which incorporates both the excess returns to equity and bonds while netting out any unprofitable (i.e. market efficient) return predictability caused by time variation in the treasury bill rate. This measure can be related to a series of observable variables in a consistent manner and used to construct a trading rule aimed at forecasting excess returns. In a series of empirical experiments, this trading rule appears to be more 'profitable' than both the rule suggested by Clare et al. (1994) and the gilt-equity yield ratio rule (used by many UK analysts to guide investment decisions), and outperforms the strategy of 'buy and hold equity'. More generally, the analysis provides support for the existence of predictable excess returns — returns which cannot be attributed to time-varying excess returns — and for the inefficient market explanation of predictable returns.     

Short- and Long-Term Performance of Polish IPOs

The paper documents short- and long-run performance of initial public offerings on the Warsaw Stock Exchange from 1998 to 2008. The study reveals positive initial market-adjusted returns of 13.95 percent and significant long-term underperformance with mean of -22.62 percent for the three-year buy-and-hold strategy. We introduce ordinary least squares regressions to find determinants of initial returns. Our findings document strong explanatory power of early aftermarket volatility, issuer's size, growth opportunities, and profitability before the offering. Moreover, those variables that can partly explain differences in initial returns can also help to shed light on the long-term underperformance issue. Our results are thus consistent with Miller's (1977) divergence of opinion hypothesis.     

Financial conditions,macroeconomic factors and disaggregated bond excess returns

Bond excess returns can be predicted by macro factors, however, large parts remain still unexplained. We apply a novel term structure model to decompose bond excess returns into expected excess returns (risk premia) and the innovation part. In order to explore these risk premia and innovations, we complement macro variables by financial condition variables as possible determinants of bond excess returns. We find that the expected part of bond excess returns is driven by macro factors, whereas innovations seem to be mainly influenced by financial conditions, before and after the financial crisis. Thus, financial conditions, such as financial stress, deserve attention when analyzing bond excess returns.     

Earnings Quality Effect on Corporate Excess Cash Holdings and Their Marginal Value

By using panel data from Korea’s listed firms, we find that firms with poor earnings quality are more likely to accumulate excess cash holdings, perhaps in an attempt to buffer themselves from information asymmetry problems. We also find that firms with poor earnings quality are more likely to discount the marginal value of their excess cash holdings because their shareholders appear to question the reason for such cash policy changes from the agency theory perspective. Overall, our results suggest that information asymmetry and agency problems are likely to co-exist in firms with poor earnings quality.     

制度环境抑制了企业过度负债同伴效应吗?——基于信息不对称中介效应的分析

基于2006-2018年30个国家的上市公司为样本,考察制度环境对企业过度负债同伴效应的影响.研究发现:法律环境、政府效率等制度环境可以显著降低企业过度负债同伴效应;制度环境对企业过度负债同伴效应的影响存在异质性,当企业规模较小、过度负债程度较高、所在国家制度环境较好时,制度环境可以显著降低企业过度负债同伴效应.反之,上述影响则不显著;企业所在行业竞争程度较高时,制度环境可以更显著地降低企业过度负债同伴效应.     

旅行社产品市场逆向选择研究

旅行社产品的无形性、生产和消费的同时性等特征使旅游者和旅行社之间存在着信息不对称现象,造成旅行社产品市场逆向选择。解决旅行社产品市场逆向选择的关键在于使消费者获得真实、全面的产品信息。通过旅行社向消费者传递产品信息,将赔偿金写入合同来发送信号以及加强政府及第三方管制等途径,可以改善旅行社产品市场逆向选择现象,使消费者和旅行社的利益都得到保障。