研发投资、舞弊风险与审计费用

以2007—2018年中国A股市场研发投资额大于零的非金融类上市公司为研究对象,实证研究研发投资强度对财务舞弊风险和审计费用的影响以及CPA审计治理效果。研究结果表明：研发投资强度与财务舞弊风险和审计费用均正相关,并且财务舞弊风险在研发投资强度对审计费用的影响中存在部分中介效应。使用工具变量法进行内生性分析发现,研发投资强度在前三种度量方式（研发投入额÷总资产、研发投入额÷净资产、研发投入额÷公司员工数）下具有很强的外生性,而在第四种度量方式（研发投入额÷营业收入）下是内生的。对审计治理效果进行分析发现,虽然高审计收费保证了CPA较高的执业努力程度,但与审计合谋正相关的异常审计费用的存在使得CPA审计治理效果并不佳,并且对研发投资强度大的客户、财务舞弊风险高的客户和高新技术企业收取更高的异常审计费用通常与更高的审计合谋倾向有关。     

Deciphering the UK's business investment performance

• ? Absent June 2016's Brexit vote, growth in business investment would have been much faster and the UK would be sharing in a global “investment boom”. Or so the Bank of England claims. But the reality is more complicated. What is striking is just how subdued investment growth has been across countries.
• ? Survey evidence presented by the Bank suggests that recent business investment growth has been less than a third of what might have been achieved absent Brexit. The UK has also been highlighted as an investment laggard among major economies.
• ? Headline investment growth has certainly been relatively weak since 2016. Uncertainty around future UK‐EU trading arrangements may have resulted in some investment being deferred or cancelled. And the Brexit‐related fall in sterling will have pushed up the cost of imported capital equipment, cutting demand.
• ? But a collapse in investment in the North Sea sector has had a significant effect on headline investment growth. On an excluding‐extraction basis, UK business investment rose at the same pace as the US (ex‐extraction) and faster than Japan in 2016 and 2017, while average annual growth rises from 1.0% to 2.4%.
• ? What is striking about the recent performance of business investment in the UK and other G7 members is how subdued growth has been across economies. Despite a favourable environment, no major advanced economy has seen investment rise at the type of rates that the Bank predicts the UK, but for Brexit, should be now enjoying.
• ? Sectoral shifts, the rise of intangible investment and the consequences of technooptimism offer some reasons as to why measured investment may have become less sensitive to economic upswings. These same factors suggest that 1990s‐style growth in private investment is unlikely in the UK (or elsewhere) even once Brexit uncertainty has cleared. Indeed, our own medium‐term forecasts see business investment growth across major economies continuing to run at a relatively subdued pace.

     

北京R&D投入与经济增长的灰色关联分析

随着科技投入的加大,R&D投入也越来越被人们所重视。R&D投入不仅对所在区域科技与经济发展具有重要作用,而且对整个国家的科技与经济发展都具有推动作用。本文运用北京2001~2011年R&D经费投入与经济增长的有关数据变量进行灰色关联分析,并根据不同结构建立了相应模型,揭示了北京R&D经费投入与经济增长的关系。     

Uncertain dynamics,correlation effects,and robust investment decisions

We analyze a firm׳s investment problem when the dynamics of project value and investment cost are uncertain. We provide an explicit solution using a robust method for an ambiguity averse firm taking this into account. Ambiguity aversion regarding a common risk factor impacts differently than ambiguity aversion regarding investment cost residual risk. Correlation between project value and investment cost matters; ambiguity aversion regarding common risk can decrease the investment probability only if correlation is positive. Ambiguity aversion regarding residual risk always increases the investment probability. When only project value is risky, volatility can monotonically decrease the investment threshold; this does not hold with the multiple prior method.     

When Does Government Debt Crowd Out Investment?

We examine when government debt crowds out investment for the US economy using an estimated New Keynesian model with detailed fiscal specifications and accounting for monetary and fiscal policy interactions. Whether investment is crowded in or out in the short term depends on policy shocks triggering debt expansions: higher debt can crowd in investment for cutting capital tax rates or increasing government investment. Contrary to the conventional view, no systematic relationships between real interest rates and investment exist, explaining why reduced‐form regressions are inconclusive about crowding out. At longer horizons, distortionary financing is important for the negative investment response to debt. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国双向直接投资均衡度的演变特征及对融资约束的影响

研究目标:揭示中国双向直接投资均衡度的时空演变特征，测算区域融资约束，分析中国双向直接投资对融资约束的影响。研究方法:运用动态度和均衡度衡量双向直接投资的流动情况，基于MSAR模型考察不同时期双向直接投资均衡度之间的依赖性。研究发现:IFDI和OFDI相向运动导致中国双向直接投资渐趋均衡，理论层面双向直接投资对融资约束的影响具有不确定性，实证发现在政策扭曲等内生制度安排下双向直接投资均衡度并未缓解融资约束，市场化水平减弱了双向直接投资均衡度对融资约束的负向作用。研究创新:构建双向直接投资均衡度将IFDI和OFDI综合起来；度量区域融资约束；阐明双向直接投资对区域融资约束的影响机理。研究价值:为双向直接投资与融资约束的良性互动提高决策参考。     

Brexit fears mask underlying pressures on investment

• ? Brexit uncertainty is seen as a likely culprit behind weakness in UK business investment. But structural shifts in the economy alongside issues relating to how investment is measured suggest that even without the uncertainty factor, a significant revival in measured investment spending may not materialise.
• ? Movements in relative prices continue to favour expansion by relatively labour‐intensive rather than capital‐intensive sectors. Relatedly, a shift towards investment‐light services activity is persisting, while recent changes in the make‐up of employment are reducing the extent of likely automation.
• ? Moreover, the ongoing pace of technological change and corresponding fears of rapid obsolescence could deter investment. And an increasingly fuzzy division between investment and consumer spending suggests that official data may be increasingly understating investment's true level.

     

我国油气企业海外投资策略思考

油气企业海外投资是其进入海外油气市场、参与国际油气项目投资、确保油气来源的手段,同时也关乎我国能源安全问题。那么如何确保油气资源的跨国投资成功,降低投资风险,就需要在投资方式、国际油气合作、油气投资管理和投资机制等方面认真研究。     

管理层持股、研发投入与股权资本成本

企业研发投入具有风险性,会导致资本成本提高,研发融资负担加重,进而对企业研发活动的积极性产生负面影响。利用2007—2013年中国A股上市公司数据,对研发投入的资本成本效应和公司治理机制缓解研发投入资本成本效应的作用进行研究,结果显示：企业研发投入与股权资本成本之间显著正相关,研发投入的资本成本效应明显;提高高级管理者、董事会与监事会成员等管理层的持股比例有助于降低研发投入的资本成本效应。进一步研究发现,研发企业的信息披露程度对高级管理者持股降低研发投入资本成本效应具有替代作用;研发投入带来的收益率增加有助于抵消研发投入导致的股权资本成本提高。     

Holistic investment assessment: optimization,risk appraisal and decision making

On deciding for the most appropriate investment when capital restrictions exist, investors define their alternatives and analyze each one of them. Traditionally, the definition, appraisal and analysis stages are treated separately. Herein, an innovative holistic method is proposed for bridging these stages. Within this method, investment attributes definition occurs by genetic algorithm optimization, while the analysis of the investment is realized through simulation. The method also proposes the NPV Expected Shortfall and the NPV Risk Preference Index as investment evaluation criteria. An illustrative case study of two mutually exclusive renewable energy investment scenarios is also used for demonstration purposes. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertain outlays in time-to-build problems

In this paper we analyze investment projects in which there is uncertainty in the total investment cost in addition to uncertainty in the completed project value. We deal with an uncertain time-to-build. Uncertainties in investment cost are quite common in long-term, large-scale, path-breaking undertakings such as some R&D projects. We find that the inclusion of uncertainty in investment cost tends to mitigate the impacts of the uncertainty of completed project value. The implications of the results are significant. First, when uncertainty of investment cost is ignored, the value of the project is underestimated and a tendency toward underinvestment will result; and second, the existence of uncertainty in investment cost will cause long-term projects to require larger declines in value before discontinuation of investment should occur.     

试论我国企业对外直接投资的区位选择

文章在分析了影响企业对外直接投资区住选择的因素基础上，针对我国企业对外投资过于集中于发达国家及新兴工业化国家和地区的弊端，提出今后我国企业对外投资区住选择的策略应是：以发展中国家为主要的投资区域。兼顾对发达国家和地区的投资，积极慎重地发展对独联体和东欧等转轨国家的投资。     

职业经理人引入对公司非效率投资的影响——基于上市家族企业的数据

以沪深两市2010—2015年上市家族企业作为研究对象,实证检验我国上市家族企业引入职业经理人对公司非效率投资的影响,并进一步研究在成长性水平不同的企业中职业经理人引入对企业投资效率影响的差异。实证研究结果表明：非效率投资普遍存在于我国上市家族企业中;上市家族企业引入职业经理人对公司非效率投资具有抑制作用;与低成长性企业相比,高成长性企业引入职业经理人对公司非效率投资的抑制作用较弱,即企业成长性水平的逐步提高会削弱职业经理人引入对企业非效率投资的影响。     

高新技术企业研发投入与内部资金相关性的实证分析

本文从理论与实地调研及国外实证研究等方面分析表明：高新技术企业研发投入与内部资金具有较强的相关性，但通过对我国2003年-2005年上市公司采用回归分析法检验却发现，二者之间相关性不显著，由此认为仅有研发强度等考核指标不能全面反映企业实际研发投入的相对水平，不利于推动、考核企业实际的研发投入，应增设企业研发投入与内部资金之间系列考核指标。     

Institutional Investment Patterns in Troubled Corporations: A Sociological analysis

A bstract . Classical or neo-classical economic theories do not adequately explain institutional investment patterns in troubled corporations. Macroeconomic perspectives contend that abstract market forces direct investment capital away from troubled companies, and that bankruptcy weeds weak firms out of the economy for the general good. Microeconomic perspectives focus on the seemingly autonomous decisions of firms and their managers, where bad management leads to troubled and bankrupt firms and a corresponding loss of investment in these companies. Neither perspective is useful for understanding recent patterns of institutional investment. A more critical, sociological perspective for understanding these investment patterns has two main threads. First, investment activity is embedded in more general social relationships and cannot be understood strictly on "economic" grounds and with "economic" ideas. Second, social power—rather than abstract market forces —is critical in fostering specific investment patterns. More specifically, the organizational power of large financial firms may be the pivotal factor shaping investment patterns in troubled companies. Recent case studies of troubled and bankrupt corporations demonstrate the usefulness of this more sociological perspective, and suggest areas for future research.     

研发投入、内部控制与财务风险相关性研究

由于研发创新能为企业带来可观的投资回报,因此有更多的企业注重提高自身的研发创新水平。近几年,我国整体研发规模在不断扩大,但企业关于研发投入的财务风险管理方面还存在不足之处。本文选取2016-2020年国内A股上市企业为研究对象,对研发投入、内部控制与财务风险的相关性进行实证分析。研究结果显示:内部控制质量与财务风险负相关;研发投入与财务风险正相关;并提出相应对策,以期通过这一研究,对我国上市企业把控研发投入力度,提升内部控制质量,降低财务风险发生概率提供理论与实践的参考和借鉴。     

Welfare indicators for public facility investments in urban renewal areas

To evaluate the effects of alternative public investment policies in terms of the welfare status of human beings thereby affected, we must have a clear delineation of social, economic, or other roles that such investment is intended to play. This paper defines a role for public facility investment in urban renewal areas that is based on analysis of both the intrinsic characteristics of these investments and the policy environment—defined by a set of renewal objectives—in which they are made. Benefits and costs are seen to accrue to society—individuals, households, business, or the community-at-large—from appropriately defined categories of public facility investment impact. A set of welfare indicators, comprised of benefit-cost measurements related to the categories of investment impact, emerges from our analysis to provide a basis for re-evaluation of certain aspects of renewal policy.     

Incomplete markets, ambiguity, and irreversible investment

The problem of irreversible investment with idiosyncratic risk is studied by interpreting market incompleteness as a source of ambiguity over the appropriate no-arbitrage discount factor. The maxmin utility over multiple priors framework is used to model and solve the irreversible investment problem. Multiple priors are modeled using the notion of κ‐ignorance. This set-up is used to analyze finitely lived options. For infinitely lived options the notion of constant κ‐ignorance is introduced. For these sets of density generators the corresponding optimal stopping problem is solved for general (in-)finite horizon optimal stopping problems driven by geometric Brownian motion. It is argued that an increase in the set of priors delays investment, whereas an increase in the degree of market completeness can have a non-monotonic effect on investment.     

Firm Productivity and the Foreign‐Market Entry Decision

We use Japanese firm‐level data to examine how a firm’s productivity affects its foreign‐market entry strategy. The firm faces a choice between exporting and foreign direct investment (FDI). In the case of FDI, the firm has two options: greenfield investment or acquisition of an existing plant (M&A). If it selects greenfield investment, it has two ownership choices: whole ownership or a joint venture with a local company. Controlling for industry‐ and country‐specific characteristics, we find that the more productive a firm is, the more likely it is to choose FDI rather than exporting and greenfield investment rather than M&A.     

The effects of corporate antitakeover provisions on long-term investment: empirical evidence

This paper's empirical results indicate that the average effect of antitakeover provisions on subsequent long‒term investment is negative. The interpretation of these results depends on whether one thinks that there was too much, too little, or just the right amount of long‒term investment prior to the antitakeover provision adoption. We use agency theory to devise more refined empirical tests of the effects of antitakeover provision adoption by managers in firms with different incentive and monitoring structures. Governance variables (e.g. percentage of outsiders on corporate boards, and separate CEO/chairperson positions) have an insignificant impact on subsequent long‒term investment behavior. However, consistent with agency theory predictions, managers in firms with better economic incentives (higher insider ownership) tend to cut subsequent long‒term investment less than managers in firms with less incentive alignment. Furthermore, managers in firms with greater external monitoring (due to higher institutional ownership) also tend to cut subsequent long‒term investment less than managers in firms with less external monitoring. Thus, the decrease in subsequent long‒term investment is significantly less for firms where the managers have greater incentives to act in shareholders' interests. Finally, there are interesting effects of the control variables. First, high book equity/market equity firms cut total long‒term investment more. Second, firms that were takeover targets or rumored to be takeover targets cut long‒term investment more. These results suggest that inefficient firms cut long‒term investment more when an antitakeover provision is adopted. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.