Exchange rate dynamics in Indonesia: 1980–1998

This paper estimates the equilibrium level of the real exchange rate for Indonesia in order to measure the extent of overvaluation of the rupiah at the time of the Asian crisis in 1997. The equilibrium level of the real exchange rate is measured using co-integration approach, unobserved component model and structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The paper uses these models to analyze the developments in the exchange rate policy. None of the models support overvaluation of the rupiah to justify the massive depreciation in 1997.     

Corporate Restructuring and Leveraged Buyouts in the Asia Pacific 1980–2010

Leveraged buyout markets in the Asia Pacific have grown substantially since the 1980s and now play an important role in the market for corporate control. This paper undertakes an international comparative analysis of the emergence and growth of leveraged buyout firms in the Asia Pacific and their role in corporate restructuring, with a focus on Australia, Japan and South Korea. Three distinct periods in the development of these markets are identified. The paper highlights the importance of state involvement and changes in domestic economic policy around financial crises, where governments created new rules to facilitate buyouts as an organisational restructuring solution to distressed companies.     

Institutional dynamics and access to non-farm employment in rural China, 1950–1996

This article examines non-farm employment in the context of Chinese rural institutional change, based on evidence from discrete-time logistic models for event history analysis using the Life History and Social Change survey. We find the transition to non-farm sector rose rapidly during the Great Leap Forward and market reform, while the Cultural Revolution saw it reach the lowest ebb. While male advantage prevailed exclusively during the Cultural Revolution and early marketization, education possessed a stable positive effect in all historical periods. Although the returns to different kinds of political capital vary along with institutional dynamics, intergenerational reproduction was greatly reduced after the Cultural Revolution.     

Nuclear power: The family in decolonial perspective and ‘pro-family’ politics in Africa

ABSTRACT

This article argues that the normative construction of ‘family’ in heteronormative ‘nuclear’ terms is infused with power relations, and therefore must not be taken for granted as an analytical category or concept. Not only a site where racialised and patriarchal western notions of sexed and gendered hierarchies have been naturalised and institutionalised, the ‘nuclear family’ model was positioned as a signifier of modernity, civilisation and progress within eurocentric knowledge construction that served colonial interests. This discussion reviews decolonial thinking on the nuclear family, as well as anti-imperialist literature on the colonial history of the nuclear family ideal. These perspectives are brought into conversation with current developments in which the nuclear family model is being reinvigorated by the conservative US-based ‘pro-family’ movement. The ‘family’, it is concluded, is entangled in multiple relations of geo-political power that should be taken into account in research and the production of knowledge around kinship in African contexts.     

Informal lending amongst friends and relatives: Can microcredit compete in rural China?

This paper explores the relationship between informal and formal lending in China with consideration of how the strength of informal lending might affect microcredit. Lending relationships involving trust are investigated using original survey data from over 1500 farm households. Econometric results confirm a relationship between trust and informal lending, and mistrust and formal lending. With over 67% of farm households borrowing from friends and relatives the economic significance between this form of informal lending and borrowing from Rural Credit Cooperatives and Micro Finance Institutions cannot be overlooked.     

Financial Globalization and the Increase in the Size of Government: Are They Related?

Open Economies Review - We employ a stochastic growth model to study the impact of international financial liberalization and changes in volatility on the share of government consumption in GDP....     

Foreign Direct Investment and Income Inequality in Southeast Asia: a Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Analysis, 1990–2013

This paper examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and income distribution in the host country as measured by the Gini coefficient. After providing some background and reviewing the extant literature, it undertakes a panel unit root and cointegration analysis that tests whether FDI has a non-linear impact on income inequality in seven selected Southeast Asian countries over the period 1990 to 2013. The paper finds strong evidence for panel cointegration using the Pedroni Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. Thus, it proceeds to utilize the group-mean fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) procedure to generate long-run estimates that are unbiased and consistent. The FMOLS estimator is also extremely accurate even in panels with very heterogeneous serial correlation dynamics, fixed effects, and endogenous regressors. The results confirm the hypothesis that FDI inflows tend to raise income inequality in the short run but reduce it in the long run. In this study, the Gini index starts decreasing after FDI inflows as a percentage of GDP reaches 5.6. The fact that the Gini coefficient reaches its maximum at a relatively low level of FDI inflows suggests that sample countries are endowed with substantial absorptive capacity. In other words, they will shift into the new technological paradigm quickly, thus supporting pro-globalization claims that, on balance, FDI is more beneficial than harmful.     

Trade and the Wage Structure in the Presence of Price Differentials in the Product Market: The Japanese Labor Market 1965–1990

The decomposition of demand into domestic, export, and import components in a cross-industry study of 18 two-digit manufacturing industries suggests that export growth has less of an impact on interindustry wage differentials than the equivalent growth in domestic demand. The difference seems to be greatest in the case of full-time workers in large firms. This result for Japan is different from those of similar studies for the United States and is consistent with a model of industry rent-sharing with domestic–international price differentials in the product market.J. Japan. Int. Econ., March 1999,13(1), pp. 22–43. Nissan Institute of Japanese Studies, Oxford University, 27 Winchester Rd., Oxford OX2 6NA, EnglandCopyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: F14, J31.     

Government expenditure in the independent and self‐governing national states of Southern Africa: An evaluation

Various commentators recently drew attention to the expenditure and financing of the independent and self‐governing national states in Southern Africa. The inference has been drawn that this expenditure appears wasteful and ineffective and constitutes little more than a costly political luxury.

This article makes an attempt at evaluating government expenditure in the national states in terms of the type and level of expenditure, its benefit incidence, as well as its efficiency.

Expenditure of the governments of the national states is largely on collective or social goods and services and therefore of the type widely expected to be provided by governments. Since the benefit incidence of this expenditure is not confined within the borders of the national states, but spills over into South Africa, government expenditure by these states benefits the common integrated economic system of Southern Africa.

With regard to the levels of expenditure, indications are that expenditure in many instances is too low. Increased expenditure in some categories might well show significantly increasing returns.     

Current Account and Fiscal Policy in Japan: 1885–1991

This paper explores the empirical relationship between the current account balance and macroeconomic series for the Japanese economy over the years 1885–1991. The long-run equilibrium depends on which series (public debt or budget deficits) affects assets relative to a capital stock rate. Departing from the Ricardian Equivalence structure (no bequest motives), fiscal policy in Japan is shown to be more related to the current account when policy is introduced by shifts in tax revenues rather than by changes in national debt.     

Wage growth and inequality in urban China: 1988–2013

We investigate the evolution of wage levels, wage inequality, and wage determinants among urban residents in China using China Household Income Project data from 1988, 1995, 2002, 2007, and 2013.Average wage grew impressively between each pair of years. Wage inequality had long been on the increase, but between 2007 and 2013 no clear changes occurred. In 1988, age and wages were positively related throughout working life, but more recently older workers' wages have been lower than those of middle-aged workers. The relationship between education and wages was weak in 1988 but strengthened rapidly thereafter—a process that came to a halt in 2007.During the period in which China was a planned economy the gender wage gap was small in urban China, but it widened rapidly between 1995 and 2007. We also report the existence of a premium for being employed in a foreign-owned firm or in the state sector.     

Production fragmentation,upstreamness, and value added: Evidence from Factory Asia 1990–2005

We exploit the recent release of the 2005 Asian Input-Output Matrix to dress a picture of the geographic fragmentation of value added in Factory Asia from 1990 to 2005. We document 3 stylized facts. The first is that the average share of foreign value added embedded in production rose by about 7 percentage points between 1990 and 2005, from 9% to 16%. The second is that, contrary to popular belief, China has emerged as a major source of value added to other Factory Asia countries’ production. Third, we find empirical support for the smile-curve hypothesis. Country-industries at the upstream and downstream extremities of the supply chain embed a larger share of value added than those with intermediate levels of upstreamness.     

Ebb and flow: Structural and spatial change in Victoria's brewing industry, 1870–1900

The brewing industry has undergone profound structural and spatial change over the last 150 years. We examine how consolidation began in Victoria's brewing industry using a historical GIS approach. We argue that industry restructuring was shaped by four interlocking dynamics between 1870 and 1900: (1) structural economic change; (2) railway development; (3) technological innovation; and (4) regulatory reform. We show that the ebb and flow of these interacting dynamics generated a non-linear process of change. Similar to North America and Europe, the industry became highly concentrated. However, this process was complicated by local factors such as climate, economy, and distance.     

Migration,marriage and social mobility: Women in Sweden 1880–1900

We study the intergenerational social mobility of women by looking at how migration was associated with socioeconomic marriage mobility using complete-count census data for Sweden. The censuses 1880–1900 have been linked at the individual level, enabling us to follow almost 100,000 women from their parental home to their new marital household. Marriage market imbalances were not an important push factor for migration but we find a strong association between migration distance and marriage outcomes, both in terms of overall marriage probabilities and in terms of partner selection by SES. These results highlight the importance of migration for women's intergenerational social mobility during industrialization.     

A salary bass: a study of bassists’ earnings in the Royal Swedish Opera, 1799–1980

The number of occupations which have hardly altered at all, thus not suffering from Schumpeterian ‘creative destruction’, is very restricted. However, one such profession is the contrabassist's. Classical music is still largely produced in the same way as when it was first performed. There is very little productivity change in the actual production of music from bygone times. This, too, is a phenomenon rare in society at large and in the economy in particular. In this study I test Baumol's Cost Disease with the Swedish Hovkapellet bass players as my focus. The disease occurs when salary increases in jobs that have seen no increase of labour are accepted. Have musicians such as bass players seen a stagnating salary development compared to professions in industries which have actually seen labour productivity growth? This, together with other related issues, is discussed based on longitudinal salary data for the Hovkapellet musicians and similar data from Copenhagen and Paris. All data are primary data collected from the orchestra archives. The data indeed verify the Baumol Cost Disease hypothesis. The open question discussed is whether that is an actual problem or not.     

Factor substitution and induced innovation in north American kraft pulping: 1914–1940

A Rosenberg/David framework is used to explain induced pulping innovations. Rising spruce prices motivated a switch to a preexisting pulping technique that could theoretically utilize cheap southern pine. In practice, however, specific southern pine characteristics created technical problems, impeding the profitable expansion of kraft pulping. With accumulated experience, technical problems were overcome by minor chemical and mechanical improvements that nonetheless propelled the rise to dominance of kraft pulping. In addition to motivating the switch to the kraft technique, rising spruce prices induced a costly search for kraft-pulping innovations that ultimately saved on the use of more expensive factors.     

Deindustrialization and changes in manufacturing trade: Factor content calculations for 1978–1995

Input-output analysis is used to estimate the labor content embodied in changes in manufacturing output resulting from changing patterns of manufacturing trade. For ten OECD countries from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s, changes in world trade of manufactures are estimated to have had a negative net effect on manufacturing employment of 3.5 million jobs, 2.0 million in the US alone, compared to a 6.2 million decline in actual manufacturing employment. The employment losses resulted mainly from North-South trade. At the industry level, there were large losses in labor-intensive industries and in industries that were strategically targeted by developing country industrial policies. There were employment losses in nearly all manufacturing industries, not a mixture of winners and losers. Such a pattern may result not from surging imports from the South but rather declining exports to the South in the aftermath of the 1980s debt crisis. JEL no. F14, F16, O24