Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Foreign Exchange Volatility: Evidence from South Africa

This study focuses on scheduled macroeconomic news announcements and evaluates their impact on the volatility of the South African rand (ZAR) and US dollar (USD) exchange rate using high frequency data. The following asymmetries are studied: news items by geographical location, no‐news vs. surprise news announcements and positive vs. negative news announcements. We make the following findings in our empirical study: (i) After the release of a news announcement, the level of foreign exchange volatility rises. This is independent of whether the news item surprised the market or not. (ii) Both South African and US news items significantly impact USD/ZAR volatility, suggesting that the news items are being used to formulate investor expectations regarding the future prospects of the currency pair. (iii) Negative news appears to have a greater impact on exchange rate volatility relative to positive news. This result is also state dependent, as investors tend to behave differently to news depending on the economic climate at that point in time. Investor cognitive biases give rise to the asymmetric news effects on exchange rate volatility. Finally, investors do not always act in rational manner, especially when faced with multiple news items that are contradictory to each other.     

An analysis of the impact of the first phase of South Africa's motor industry development programme (midp), 1995–2000

The South African motor vehicle industry is an important branch of the local manufacturing sector, contributing significantly to manufacturing value added and employment. Over the last decade, the local industry has undergone a series of policy reforms, and in recent years has increasingly been exposed to globalisation. This article reviews the role of government policy in shaping the industry, and examines the impact of the first phase of the Motor Industry Development Programme on the industry for the period 1995–2000 in respect of domestic production, automotive industry employment, export performance and the automotive trade balance. The article concludes that even though the industry registered strong export growth that contributed to improving the automotive trade deficit, it was deficient in sustaining domestic production and employment levels. The imminent challenge for the local industry's development is to maintain its export growth trajectory in the long term in the absence of costly government protective incentive mechanisms.     

Economy-wide implications of biofuel production in Zambia

ABSTRACT

Potential biofuel demand in South Africa is estimated to increase to 1550 million litres by 2025 due to mandatory blending rates. Land and water constraints, however, limit the ability for domestic production. Zambia, due to its abundance in land, suitable climate, supportive set of bioenergy incentives and close geographical location to South Africa, has the potential to meet this increase in demand. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the macro- and socio-economic impacts of bioethanol production in Zambia from three potential crops: sugarcane, cassava and sweet sorghum. The results show that the development of a single product bioethanol industry has the potential to increase economic growth without negatively affecting overall food security. Further expansion of the industry to multiple products results in larger gains to growth and welfare.     

The shape of demand for high-level agricultural skills in the South African labour market

A supply of high-level agricultural skills is foundational to the South African agricultural sector's capacity to improve the quality and range of agricultural products and services so as to support small agricultural producers, meet domestic needs for food security and increase the competitiveness of local products on global agricultural markets. Concerns about the coexistence of graduate unemployment and skills shortages in the agricultural sector prompt the question: What is the shape of demand for high-level agricultural skills in the South African labour market? To answer this, the authors conducted 83 interviews with respondents in private, public and non-governmental organisations involved in agriculture. The findings reveal a rising demand for high-level agricultural skills among farmers, farm managers and foremen; in research and product development; in the sales and marketing functions of firms supplying primary agriculture; in government entities across a wide range of occupations; and in public and private sector R&D.     

HOW EXPOSED IS THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE?

Following the policies implemented during the 1990s, the South African economy has become more globalised. This is particularly the case as far as international trade is concerned. The implementation of trade reforms, in some cases faster than WTO commitments, has increased the exposure of the South African economy to international trade. Trade in intermediate inputs increases the external orientation of an industry and hence increases the economy's exposure to trade. This in effect means that the economy is more open to external trade shocks than is conveyed by the traditional openness measure which considers only the trade in final products. This paper uses a measure proposed by Campa and Goldberg (1997) to estimate the exposure to trade and finds that around 79 per cent of output in 2000 was accounted for by industries that became more exposed to international trade. Further, domestic production has become more reliant on imported inputs with around 60 per cent of South Africa's GDP being accounted for by industries with a negative external orientation (i.e. industries where imported input costs exceeded export revenue). In addition, it was also found that those sectors that became more externally oriented had lower inflation rates and higher growth rates than the other sectors in the economy for the period under analysis. The extent to which the increased exposure to international trade facilitated these developments remains topical for further research.     

Adjusting to Trade Liberalisation: The Case of Firms in the South African Textile Sector

This paper examines the responses of firms in the textile industryof South Africa to that country's rapid liberalisation of tradesince the early 1990s. The data reveal that there have beenincreased exports accompanied by reductions in employment andcontraction of production of yarns and fabrics. Drawing on asurvey of companies, followed by interviews, it documents howcompetitive pressures from imports have led firms to increasetheir exports. Exporting is not, however, directly associatedwith better performance. This is due to its being a responseby many firms to weak domestic demand and the need to maintainproduction capacity. But, liberalisation has also been accompaniedby much upgrading of equipment and by increased specialisationand vertical disintegration in order to develop competitiveniches despite South Africa's manufacturing wage levels beinghigher than those of many of its international competitors.Firms focusing on non-price factors of export competitivenesshave been better performing. Firms have also been most successfulwhere technological capabilities based on the domestic marketprovided a foundation for export competitiveness. There areindications that with the restructuring induced by liberalisationthe sector is in a position more effectively to exploit itscompetitive strengths in international markets. In addition,the United States' African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)offers some stimulus for the textile industry to supply fabricsto firms in the export garment sector which previously importedthem.     

Challenges for the floriculture industry in a developing country: a South African perspective

The increasing numbers of global floriculture producers, and changes in the basis of competition in this international industry, make it important to evaluate the South African floriculture industry's competitive position. The industry employs more than 17 500 people and provides opportunities for rural employment. This article assesses the challenges facing the South African floriculture industry in the competitive global market, using a framework based on global value chain (GVC) and global commodity chain (GCC) analyses. An empirical study showed that the industry is insufficiently competitive and does not participate to its full potential in the global market. It is recommended that floriculture producers shift their focus from the domestic to the international market, as the domestic market is becoming saturated and its turnover is small. However, as enhancing the industry's competitiveness is a complex endeavour, the industry first needs to address the weaknesses identified.     

河北省小麦产量的波动性分析

河北省小麦生产对于保障全国粮食安全负有重要责任。文章测算了1986--2006年河北省小麦生产的波动指数、波动周期和波动幅度,揭示了小麦生产的波动规律,研究了单产、播种面积、成本收益率和国家政策与小麦产量之间的关系,并结合河北省小麦生产的现状,提出了稳定和发展河北省小麦生产的途径,即严格贯彻耕地保护政策,稳定小麦播种面积;降低生产成本,提高成本收益率;积极推进农业科技进步,保证小麦单产的持续增长。     

Internet-enabled supply chain integration: Prospects and challenges for the South African automotive industry

The impetus for supply chain integration (SCI) in the global automotive industry is being driven by the Internet. The article critically explores the potential of the Internet to optimise and streamline the complex supply chains found in the South African automotive industry. The Internet's potential to create seamless, collaborative supply networks could provide the local automotive industry with a distinctive competitive advantage in its pursuit of an 'outward orientation' and 'global connectedness' after a lengthy period of trade isolation and government protection. The findings, however, reveal that domestic automotive firms are generally not using the Internet for substantive interbusiness trade and advanced SCI. By not making the transition to Internet-enabled SCI, South African automotive firms may be placing themselves at risk of becoming less competitive in the globally interconnected market, which will impact on both their current market positions and long-term viability.     

Trade and the structure of South African production, 1984-97

With the onset of trade liberalisation, fears have been raised concerning the impact of trade on manufacturing output, employment and growth. Using an input–output methodology, this article decomposes South African output growth between 1984 and 1997 into final demand expansion, trade flows and technology. There are two main findings. First, trade liberalisation has not deindustrialised the manufacturing sector. Although import penetration has risen, export growth has matched and exceeded the potential import-induced losses in domestic production. South Africa's response thus conforms closely to international evidence. Secondly, a combination of strong growth in capital-intensive exports and import penetration in ultra-labour-intensive sectors has aided the structural shift in production towards capital-intensive sectors. However, capital-biased supply-side policies, as well as endemic problems within ultra-labour-intensive sectors, suggest that domestic factors and not trade liberalisation lie behind this shift.     

Exchange rate volatility and agricultural trade under policy reforms in South Africa

Decades of government intervention have helped develop the South African agriculture sector to its present state. Policy reforms have included trade and exchange rate policies to increase the country's international competitiveness, reduce poverty and promote economic growth. These reforms are facilitating the growth in agricultural trade and South Africa's reintegration into the global economy. Annual agricultural exports and imports have increased. This paper uses annual data and a vector error-correction model to investigate the supply and demand relationships for agricultural trade flows in South Africa during the past four decades. The results show that prices, real exchange rates, domestic production capacity and real incomes have significant impacts on the country's agricultural trade. In particular, exchange rate volatility has negative impacts. This cannot be viewed solely as an exogenous source of macroeconomic instability in South Africa, as domestic policies play a crucial role in influencing the movement of exchange rates.     

The impact of trade facilitation factors on South Africa's exports to a selection of African countries

Economic growth can be enhanced through increased trade among countries, provided the correct institutional structures are in place. A country's trade is dependent not only on its own trade facilitation reforms but also on those of the trading partners. This paper, using an augmented gravity model, examines trade facilitation factors that impact on South Africa's exports to other selected African countries. The results of the estimation reveal the following. An improvement in the customs environment within the importing country provides the largest gain in terms of increasing trade flows, followed by the regulatory environment and domestic infrastructure. Furthermore, adjacency and common language impact positively on South African exports, while distance between countries impacts negatively on it. Being part of the Southern African Development Community is also enhancing exports from South Africa, compared with being part of the East African Community.     

“禁摩”政策对江门摩托车产业的影响分析

江门摩托车产业集群年产值100多亿元,是中国摩托车行业"三大板块"之一,在国内外具有较高的地位和影响力。近年来,全国已有一百多个城市纷纷实行"禁摩"政策。"禁摩"政策抑制了企业的销量,使其在农村市场展开价格战,阻碍着产业升级。面对"禁摩"不利影响,江门摩托车产业应开拓新市场,加强自主品牌建设,大力发展各种技术创新平台,行业协会也要加强与政府的沟通。     

江苏省装备制造业竞争力评价影响因素实证研究

通过对国内外行业竞争力评价指标体系及评价方法的研究,本文从规模能力、技术创新能力、市场能力、盈利能力、生产能力和环境保护能力六个方面构建江苏省装备制造业的竞争力评价指标体系,以江苏省装备制造业行业规模以上7个子行业的2006～2010年经济数据为研究样本,采用因子分析法对江苏省装备制造业竞争力进行定量评价和实证分析。     

‘Learning by importing’ in global value chains: upgrading and South–South strategies in the Ugandan pharmaceutical industry

Drawing on global value chain analysis, this article discusses the possibilities for upgrading in a domestically oriented import-dependent industry. The pharmaceutical industry in Uganda consists of a large number of importers, nine of which have upgraded into assembly and four a step further into manufacturing. The industry upgrades by a process of ‘learning by importing’. Although not engaged with global buyers, pharmaceutical producers in Uganda are tied into the global pharmaceutical value chain by international linkages with their suppliers, mainly in India, from whom they access technology and intermediates for production. Hence, this industry is based on South–South networks for production of low-value pharmaceutical products. With the globalisation of the pharmaceutical industry, an increasing number of global lead firms are ceasing to manufacture these products. This study illustrates an alternative form of industrialisation and upgrading that has not been adequately considered in the development of the African pharmaceutical industry.     

The extent of anti-export bias in the South African economy during the 1990s

An analysis of trade incentives in the South African economy during the 1990s reveals two major findings. Firstly, the extent of the anti-export bias in South Africa's trade policy during the 1990s is less than is claimed in the empirical literature. The sectors subjected to an anti-export bias accounted for around 7 per cent of total output in 1990 and 21 per cent in 1999. Secondly, sectoral output growth did not strongly correlate with the prevailing trade incentives of the 1990s. Export production continued despite the prevalence of import substituting incentives in many sectors. Although further research is needed, this suggests that attention should also be given to other factors related to domestic competitiveness (e.g. skills development, productivity enhancement, competition policy, etc.) and market access if South African export production is to be significantly increased.     

Weather shocks and English wheat yields, 1690–1871

We estimate a time series model of weather shocks on English wheat yields for the early nineteenth century and use it to predict weather effects on yield levels from 1697 to 1871. This reveals that yields in the 1690s were depressed by unusually poor weather; and those in the late 1850s were inflated by unusually good weather. This has led researchers to overestimate the underlying growth of yields over the period by perhaps 50%. Correcting for this effect would largely reconcile the conflicting primal and dual estimates of productivity growth over the period.     

The effect of domestic and foreign competition on performance in Australian manufacturing industries

Summary and Conclusions This study investigated the role of both domestic structural factors and tariff protection in explaining inter-industry differences in profitability in Australian manufacturing industries. At no stage did concentration have a significant effect on profitability at the four-digit level of analysis, in comparison to its observed significant positive effect at the three-digit level. Other structural factors appear to be more important in explaining inter-industry variations in profitability in Australia. The effective tariff rate was negatively associated with profitability, the relationship notably being more highly significant in those industries enjoying higher than average tariff protection. It is suggested that this negative relationship for Australia may be due to a similar phenomenon noted in relation to Canadian manufacturing, namely that tariff protection has led to the permanent creation of too many sub-optimal production units, resulting in lower efficiency and decreased profits. A reduction in the effective rate of tariff protection given to high cost Australian manufacturing industries may therefore yield greater efficiency, as well as at the same time permitting the possibility of increased potential and actual foreign competition.This paper was written while the author was Visting Associate Professor at the University of Delaware. Thanks are due to members of the Industrial Organization Workshop at the University of Virginia for comments on an earlier draft, and to the Managing Editor for his suggestions. I am grateful to the Reserve Bank of Australia for support for this research from their Economic and Financial Research Fund. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author alone.     

South African food resources for the future∗

Internationally, Government action has failed to resolve problems of agriculture, and has proved expensive. Views on the long‐term ability of agriculture to produce sufficient food have varied between optimism and pessimism. Pessimism prevailed in the seventies, but the same period experienced rapid increases in food production, with stocks reaching record volumes by 1986. Food production has outstripped population growth over the long run. Food shortages and famines are caused by distribution problems rather than low aggregate production. Differences in income levels cause problems in the entitlement of poorer people to food. South African agriculture exhibits dualism in production, both in terms of quantities produced and sophistication in the array of foodstuffs produced. Dualism is as prevalent in consumption. In South Africa, some have food in abundance, and others live below the breadline. This is a function of revenue, and has a racial content as well as security implications. South African food industries should cope with dualism by accepting raw materials of differing quality and delivering foodstuffs with differing attributes. This calls for deregulation and a small degree of concentration. Sanctions may aggravate affairs.