How much does excess debt contribute to currency crises? the case of Korea

It is widely believed that seriously excess debt problems form a major cause of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. This paper investigates empirically the role of the debt problems using Korea’s won/US$ rate as the guinea pig. The problems are represented by two institutional variables in nonlinear equilibrium-correction models. The variables are found to exert positive feedback effects on Korea’s won rate returns in three forms: disequilibrium in levels, short-run shocks, and explosive bubbles. However, the estimated effects are not so singly conspicuous as to serve as the predictor of a likely collapse in the won rate in late 1997. Excess debt is hence found to only constitute one of the many factors that brought about the 1997 won crisis.     

From financial repression to financial crisis? The case of China

This study explores the connections between financial repression policies and the possibility of financial crisis, a relationship that has been overlooked in previous literature. We focus on China, a country with one of the highest levels of financial repression in the world. China's case shows that when financial repression is maintained at a modest level, as the government did before 2008, the possibility of a financial crisis is low; however, when financial repression policies are pushed to an excessive level, as the government did after 2008, the national asset‐liability structure may be damaged to such an extent that a financial crisis becomes likely. The key to understanding the changing role of China's financial repression policies lies in the survival strategy of the Chinese party‐state, which regards finance as a powerful weapon and is eager to use it to address certain economic, political, or social problems that may endanger its rule.     

Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience

This paper examines the performance of Turkey's inflation targeting (IT) experience. We find the IT regime to be an effective framework. Our judgment is based on three broad conclusions supported by empirical analyses. First, fiscal stability is an effective tool for a successful monetary policy. Second, the overnight policy of the Central Bank of Turkey rate is a significant determinant of the changes in market lending rates, which is the preliminary step in the monetary transmission mechanism. Third, recent developments on the broader issue of the effectiveness of interest rate policy in controlling inflation through aggregate demand management and through other channels are encouraging. Based on our findings, we argue that the impact of policy rate changes on economic activity and inflation have become more predictable and changed in the direction in line with theory, improving the transmission capacity of monetary policy.     

The effect of foreign direct investment on firm growth: the case of Taiwan’s manufacturers

Foreign direct investment (FDI) can be roughly separated into an expansionary type and a defensive type. Expansionary FDI seeks to exploit the firm-specific advantage in the host country whereas defensive FDI seeks cheap labor in the host country to reduce the cost of production. Based on Taiwanese data, we examine the effects of these two types of FDI on survival and growth performance of investing firms. Both types of FDI are shown to be beneficial to the survival of firms. Expansionary FDI has the additional benefit of contributing to the sales growth of investing firms at home while defensive FDI is neutral to sales growth. Both types of FDI are also shown to be uncorrelated with job creation or job displacement at home. Our results suggest that FDI will strengthen rather than weaken the viability and competitiveness of domestic industries. It cannot be blamed for industrial ‘hollowing-out’.     

Can self-employment activity contribute to ascension to urban citizenship? Evidence from rural-to-urban migrant workers in China

The ascension to urban citizenship and assimilation into urban life for rural to urban migrant workers is a pressing mission during the current process of rapid urbanization in developing China. However, the issue of how self-employed migrants, who account for up to 25 percent of total migrant workers in 2009 (Meng, 2012), acquire urban citizenship remains understudied. Using a unique sample from the 2009 Rural to Urban Migrants in China (RUMiC) survey, this paper explores whether self-employment choice contributes to migrant workers' ascension to urban citizenship and integration, and uncovers the underlying mechanisms. We find that although self-employed migrants are capable of earning a higher income, and improving their living conditions, their tendency to reside permanently in the city is not significantly different from their counterparts of wage workers. We argue that self-employed migrants, who are less covered by urban social securities and are more discriminated against by current urban household registration (Hukou) system, tend to lose faith in ascension to urban citizenship. It implies that a social security system with self-employed migrants being covered as well as an urban Hukou admission system favoring diverse human capital (especially taking into account entrepreneurship) would help accelerate the urbanization process.     

How much informal credit lending responded to monetary policy in China? The case of Wenzhou

This study investigates empirically what the major factors are which have driven Wenzhou's informal credit market and how much that market is responsive to monetary policies and the formal banking conditions nationwide. A number of relatively stable factors have been identified from this volatile market through a careful exploration of a monthly survey data set for the period of 2003–2011. The main findings are: (i) Wenzhou's informal credit lending rates are highly receptive to monetary policies; (ii) Wenzhou's market is dominantly demand driven; (iii) Wenzhou's informal lending is substitutive to bank savings in the short run but complementary to banking lending in the long run; and (iv) Wenzhou's market is complementary to excessive investments in the local real estate market.     

Financial crisis and saving–investment dynamics in the presence of cross-sectional dependence: The case of East Asia

Using the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) technique to a set of balanced panel error correction model, we examine the effects of the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the global financial crisis of 2008 on the behavior of saving and investment in East Asian countries. Our results show that saving and investment rates are highly dependent across countries of East Asia. This finding underlines the importance of taking into account cross-sectional dependence when analyzing saving–investment relationship. The results also indicate that the adverse financial shock of 1997 has negatively affected the short run correlation between saving and investment, but has not influenced their long run relationship. Our finding, hence, verifies the prediction of new open economy macroeconomic theories regarding the divergence of short run saving–investment from its long run trend for East Asia. Moreover, we find that the global financial crisis of 2008 has not affected the saving–investment dynamics in this region. It means that the consequences of the Asian and global financial crises for saving–investment dynamics are not the same in East Asia. One might attribute these differences to the origins of these two shocks, i.e., internal versus external to the region. These findings may have some policy implications for those countries that rely heavily on foreign investment and are subject to various internal and external financial shocks.     

Can central bank communication effectively guide the monetary policy expectation of the public?

Central bank communication helps to optimize monetary policy. Therefore, it is essential to study whether central bank communication can effectively guide expectations via various communication methods. We study central bank communication in China using the events collected from its official websites and social media, and we divide them into formal and informal communications. We use the high-frequency quotation data of treasury bonds to identify monetary policy surprise caused by communication, which is measured by the target and path surprise. Then, we evaluate the forward-looking and backward-looking effectiveness of central bank communications. We show that central bank communications can help guide public expectations, but different topics and different forms of communication have heterogeneous effects. Forward guidance carries both potential benefits and drawbacks. It is worth noting that China's current central bank communications may have certain potential to be improved.     

Do trade and investment agreements lead to more FDI? Accounting for key provisions inside the black box

The previous literature provides a highly ambiguous picture on the impact of trade and investment agreements on FDI. Most empirical studies ignore the actual content of BITs and RTAs, treating them as “black boxes”, despite the diversity of investment provisions constituting the essence of these agreements. We overcome this serious limitation by analyzing the impact of modalities on the admission of FDI and dispute settlement mechanisms in both RTAs and BITs on bilateral FDI flows between 1978 and 2004. We find that FDI reacts positively to RTAs only if they offer liberal admission rules. Dispute settlement provisions play a minor role. While RTAs without strong investment provisions may even discourage FDI, the reactions to BITs are less discriminate with foreign investors responding favourably to the mere existence of BITs.     

Did industrialisation lead to segregation in cities of the nineteenth century? The case of Uppsala 1880–1900

ABSTRACT

How did industrialisation affect land use and residential patterns in cities of the nineteenth century? We use census data and GIS mapping techniques to analyse class segregation and changes to the spatial structure using the case of Uppsala, Sweden between 1880 and 1900. We find that there was a clear concentration of business activity in the central district and in proximity to the transportation hubs. Since these activities became more numerous but remained concentrated, they likely increased land values in the central areas of the city, inducing the lowest social classes to locate away from the centre. However, while these households were pushed out, it did not result in the type of class segregation we observe in many twentieth-century cities. Before the widespread use of transport technologies allowing populations to sprawl, city expansion in the type of middle-sized city that we study led instead to increased density and mixed uses in the central areas.     

Does family planning help the employment of women? The case of India

This paper gives some insight into the existence of a positive effect of family planning programmes on women's employment in developing countries. We study married women aged 15–49 living throughout India using a sample drawn from the National Health Family Survey (NFHS-2) for 1998–1999. We focus on a programme of doorstep services delivered by health or family planning (FP) workers who are sent to visit women in their assigned areas. Results derived from the estimation of fixed effect linear probability and conditional logit models show a positive and significant correlation of the share of women living in a local area (village, town or city) that has been visited by FP workers with the probability of women's employment. A multinomial analysis also shows that the largest positive effect of FP in rural India is to be found on paid work, as opposed to unpaid work, suggesting a potential empowering feedback of demographic measures through labour earnings.     

Can Financialization Save Nature? The Case of Endangered Species*

The current biodiversity loss is dramatic. Over the past 50 years, more than 68% of the mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, and fish on Earth have disappeared, putting the planet's survival and its inhabitants—including human beings—at risk. Financialization, or the transformation of nature into financial assets, is increasingly proposed as a solution to the biodiversity crisis. Proponents of financialization believe that assigning a monetary value to nature will incentivize human beings to protect habitats and their species. This article offers a four-mechanism model of nature's financialization, explaining why it is virtually impossible to financialize nature. We collected data through a unique two-stage data collection process, including a single case study and additional interviews with conservationists and conservation finance specialists. We analyzed the development of a calculative device, the “Index,” designed to assess the impact of conservation efforts on the survival of endangered species. Conservationists hoped to use the Index to calculate the financial return of a conservation impact bond, a financial instrument designed to finance conservation projects. However, they did not achieve their goal. We discuss the implications for the financialization and conservation literature and the role of accounting therein. We notably question previous accounts of financialization, including the need for financial numbers or financial actors. We ultimately show that a financialization project can transform practices toward financialization, even if the financialization process is not complete.     

Why do commercial banks hold government bonds? The case of Japan

We investigate the determinants of the demand for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) by commercial banks in Japan. In particular, by estimating portfolio equations for JGB demand and bank loans, based on a panel data set from the late 1990s to the 2000s, we rigorously test the popular assertion that the long stagnation of the real economy caused a shift in the portfolios of commercial banks from bank lending to JGBs. We find that the popular assertion is not empirically supported. Rather, the portfolio shift from loans to JGBs has been caused by a fall in the ratio of the loan rate to unit lending costs, or the bank’s price–cost margin for lending.     

Can equalization of public services narrow the regional disparities in China? A spatial econometrics approach

Regional disparities that challenge the economy and public administration must be confronted by the governments and public in developing countries. As the extensive mode of economic growth has caused many problems in China, it is necessary to find other ways to promote the development of poor areas to narrow regional disparities in the country. This paper measures the equalization of public services and residents' living standards in China, based on a provincial panel data for the period 2001–2013, to analyze the impact of the equalization of public services on China's regional disparities. The empirical results, based on spatial econometrics models, show that the equalization of all types of public services can promote the regional equality of incomes and consumptions. There is also evidence suggesting that the regional disparities are affected by other economic and social factors.     

Can older workers stay productive? The role of ICT skills and training

This paper quantitatively examines the effects of aging on labor productivity using individual worker data in Korea. We find that information and communications technology (ICT) skills and participation in job-related training can help older workers stay productive. The estimation results present that ICT skills, a measure incorporating an individual’s proficiency in ICT skills and their utilization in the workplace, has a positive effect on the wages of the older workers aged 50–64 with a high level of education or in a skill-intensive occupation. Job training also has a significant positive effect on the wages of older workers. These results imply that compared to younger workers, well-educated older workers can obtain greater productivity increase through ICT skill attainment and their adequate use, and job-training. The evidence suggests that a productivity decrease in line with the aging process can be mitigated by training aging workers to equip themselves with ICT skills.     

Can Africa Industrialize by Processing Primary Commodities? The Case of Mozambican Cashew Nuts

Industrialization strategies based on vertical diversification into processing of primary commodities have long been appealing to low-income countries. The performance of such strategies is mixed. An aggregate-level literature is divided on the advisability of low-income countries processing commodities for export, especially for countries relatively poor in human capital. While this general literature usefully illuminates the policy debate over processing cashew nuts in Mozambique, commodity and country specific factors reveal the weaknesses of conducting debate at too aggregated a level. It may be that the most significant constraints on processing industrialization are political rather than purely technical or economic.     

Does financial development contribute to the achievement of the “Zero Hunger” goal in Africa?

This study examines the effects of financial development on undernourishment with panel data from 40 African countries. We show that financial development in all its dimensions reduces undernourishment. In addition, financial development, financial institutions, the financial market, and financial market depth reduce child stunting. We also identify education, health expenditure, access to electricity, and control of corruption as the main transmission channels through which financial development reduces undernourishment. These results have important implications for the achievement of the “Zero Hunger” goal in Africa and for improving child nutrition.     

The empirics of economic geography: how to draw policy implications?

Using both reduced-form and structural approaches, the spectrum of policy recommendations that can be drawn from empirical economic geography is pretty large. Reduced-form approaches allow the researchers to consider many variables that impact on regional disparities, as long as they are careful about interpretation and endogeneity issues. Structural approaches have the opposite advantages. Less issues can be simultaneously addressed, but one can be more precise in terms of which intuitions are considered and the underlying mechanisms and effects at work. Many regional policy issues remain unanswered, opening some interesting future lines of research.     

The case of labour time reduction without wage compensation: More or less employment?

Summary In this paper a model of a closed economy, including a market sector and a public sector, is presented to analyse the consequences of a reduction of labour time with and without wage compensation. It turns out that a policy of labour time reduction without wage compensation is a very strong instrument to improve production and employment, if the economy is characterized by the Keynesiandemand model. But if the economy is characterized by the neoclassicalsupply model, a relatively large drop in wages is necessary to prevent a policy of labour time reduction from causing a process of stagflation.