Japan

GDP likely contracted very sharply in Q2 2020 as household and business spending fell amid the state of emergency in effect from April to May. While we expect growth to bounce back in Q3 as activity and spending regain lost ground, the subsequent recovery will likely be very gradual as external demand stays weak and concerns over the virus linger. A renewed pick-up in infections and a return to restrictions on activity are downside risks. We forecast GDP to shrink 6% in 2020, before growing 2.8% in 2021.     

Japan

A relatively weak currency (compared to 2008–2013) and a reasonably firm outlook for global trade will continue to help exports this year, although the contribution from the external sector is expected to ease over the coming quarters. Business investment should remain firm on the back of healthy corporate profits and construction related to the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games. In addition, fiscal and monetary policy will remain supportive.     

Japan

Recent data point to an exit from recession in Q4 2014. Retail sales were up 2.8% in the three months to November, while industrial production was up 1.9%. In addition, exports are finally picking up significantly, and PMI readings are holding above the 50‐mark. Still, activity levels remain well below those seen in early 2014. We estimate that Q4 saw growth of 0.6%, but this will leave output 1.6% lower than in Q1 – Japan will not see a sharp ‘V‐shaped’ recovery from recession…     

Japan

With persistent trade frictions and a significant loss of global growth momentum clouding the external outlook, growth will remain constrained by weak exports and a deceleration in investment spending. Manufacturing, particularly subsectors affected by the ongoing ICT slowdown, has continued to suffer, while the service sector has held up better. However, domestically, the consumption tax hike implemented on 1 October will weigh on consumption spending. We forecast GDP to grow 0.8% in 2019 and just 0.2% in 2020 (due to the impact of the consumption tax rise).     

Japan

The immediate post‐Brexit volatility has diminished with the Topix index regaining all the 8% it lost on the day of the referendum result. In addition, the yen has fallen back from a 30‐month high of ¥101 to the US dollar, but at around ¥105 it has still risen by some 12% so far this year. Meanwhile, a snap poll in the immediate aftermath of the UK referendum vote to leave the EU showed almost half of Japanese businesses expecting a deterioration in business conditions.     

Japan

Economic activity still looks subdued in early 2015. Business surveys have deteriorated and household spending has weakened. Trade is a bright spot, relatively speaking. But we estimate that GDP growth was only 0.4% in Q1, indicating a rather anaemic upturn following the recession in the middle of last year.…     

Japan

Monthly data suggest that GDP growth remained solid in Q3. Industrial production increased 2.1% on the month in August, more than reversing the 0.8% decline in July. Goods export volumes also rose strongly, growing nearly 9% y/y in July‐August combined, while the latest Tankan survey showed a rise in capital spending intentions. And although the BoJ's real consumption activity index suggests that growth in household spending moderated in Q3, this followed a very robust outturn in the previous quarter.