EXPLORING ATTRITION BIAS: THE CASE OF THE KHAYELITSHA PANEL STUDY (2000-2004)

Attrition bias is a problem for users of panel data. Researchers need to know what socio‐economic factors are associated with attrition, and whether this is of relevance for the kind of analysis they want to conduct. This paper discusses attrition bias in the 2000/2004 Khayelitsha panel study. It shows that women, shack‐dwellers and people living in smaller households are more likely to attrit, but that the impact of these variables on the probability of attrition is relatively small. The implications for labour‐market analysis are then explored using Mincerian earnings functions and a probit regression on whether respondents are wage‐employed or not. The coefficients generated using a restricted sample of non‐attritors do not differ significantly from those generated by the entire sample. This suggests that attrition bias in this particular data set is not a problem for this kind of labour market analysis.     

The rise and demise of gedik markets in Istanbul, 1750–1860

Using new evidence uncovered from Istanbul court records, this paper shows that Ottoman markets were capable of spontaneous financial innovation before the introduction of modern financial instruments. At the same time, however, it demonstrates that the impact and sustainability of these innovations depended on the underlying political equilibrium. Gediks—entitlements to usufruct rights over the factors of production used in urban commercial and industrial activity—gradually transformed into liquid assets during the late eighteenth century. This transformation was enabled by the coercive power of Janissary‐infiltrated guilds in response to the financial needs of small‐ and medium‐scale actors operating within the confines of the domestic economy. The entry barriers, which enabled gedik markets to exist in the first place, also limited their use for growth‐promoting purposes and thus set them apart from similar financial instruments that emerged in the West. Gedik markets disappeared as the Janissary–guild coalition declined and better financial instruments emerged during the mid‐nineteenth century.     

信用卡透支纠纷的法律适用

近年来信用卡透支纠纷急剧上升。信用卡透支纠纷法律关系相对简单,但是在审判实践中还有很多问题难以处理。本文分别从原告主体资格、管辖法院、违约的界定、利息、复息与合法性违约金的调整、诉讼费用与持卡人应诉差旅等费用的承担、举证责任分配与转移、诉讼时效中断的认定、信用卡透支案件中的刑民交叉问题等几个方面进行针对性的分析与讨论。     

Credit,reputation, and masculinity in British urban commerce: Edinburgh,c. 1710–70 1

This article draws on cases of public insult from the Edinburgh consistory court to explore constructions of credit and reputation during the eighteenth century. Scotland's unique legal context offers new insights into the honour of men and women, replacing the received view that female honour was almost entirely about sexual honour and complicating our understanding of male honour among the middling sort. In contrast to studies that view the credit of men and women as principally contradictory, this study instead identifies significant points of both overlap and divergence in male and female reputation and discusses honour as a family matter. Unlike in England, levels of defamation litigation in Scotland remained high through the eighteenth century, and both the social composition of defamation litigants and the types of insult they brought to court remained consistent. However, the forms and settings of disputes over honour changed, reflecting the interiorization of conflict as the eighteenth century progressed.     

The Settlement Norm in Audit Legal Disputes: Insights from Prominent Attorneys

Prior research indicates that most audit legal disputes settle. There is, however, little evidence of the factors that drive the settlement norm and its exceptions in audit legal disputes. To better understand these factors, we rely on theory related to how professionals manage risks and, as a result, how professions defend jurisdictional claims. We use this theoretical lens to help motivate four research questions that we probe by interviewing 27 prominent attorneys experienced in audit litigation. Consistent with our lens, our interview data indicate that attorneys manage their risks, including the risk of reputational loss, by settling based on their expectations of trial verdicts. Unlike trials, settlements simultaneously enable attorneys on both sides to limit costs and avoid catastrophic jury verdicts and, by doing so, claim “wins” for their clients. Attorneys also stress that they settle many audit disputes without any legal filings. Thus, a large subset of disputes is invisible to the public and researchers. Attorneys characterize trials as exceptions to the settlement norm that emerge due to abnormal conditions sometimes present in disputes. However, trial verdicts in these abnormal conditions help attorneys justify the use of settlements to clients, as attorneys stress that by settling they can avoid the dreaded possibility of extreme unfavorable verdicts. We conclude that as individual attorneys manage their risks, especially the risk of reputational loss, their profession maintains its public image and thereby defends its jurisdictional claims. Among the many questions we pose for future research is whether the settlement norm reduces society's ability to monitor the audit profession and, more generally, whether this norm's benefits outweigh its drawbacks.     

Order with Law: Social Capital, Civil Litigation, and Economic Development

I use records on commercial litigation in New South Wales to assess the role of norms and social capital during economic development. The data indicate that total disputes fell over time, whereas the rate of out of court settlements increased. Litigation rates were initially higher in frontier areas that arguably needed to adapt institutions to new circumstances because norms and standards were as yet undeveloped. The fraction of settled cases was significantly lower in frontier areas and areas without market access. Patterns related to jury trials, plaintiff recovery rates, and attorney representation are also assessed. The results are consistent with the theory that cooperative solutions emerge as areas gain access to markets, and suggest that order and law are complementary inputs into the process of economic development.     

Bargaining unit determination: Does the cleric belong?

Summary In 79 percent of the cases the respondentsincluded clerics in the bargaining unit without question. The remaining institutions did so with the help of legal judication. The major criteria used were: full-time teaching status, eligibility for tenure, written contracts, and amount of administrative duties. The teaching of the questionnaire and court decisions is that when a cleric is employed in the same capacity as a layman the cleric does not lose his constitutional right to belong to a collective bargaining unit. And precisely those criteria used to decide whether non-clerics should be included/excluded have been applied to the clerics.     

Parental Education and Children's School and Work Status in Urban Ethiopia: A Note on Gender Bias

This paper examines gender bias in the parental education–child status link using data from urban Ethiopia. Gender bias is defined here, specifically, as the differential impact of a parent's education on a child's status depending on the gender of the parent vis‐à‐vis the child. Children's status is measured by school enrolment and participation in market work. Results from a basic model point to same‐gender bias – father–son, mother–daughter in school enrolment and father–son in market work. In an extended model, results show that father–son bias in market work may be particularly pertinent for middle‐ to later‐born children. Policy interventions should be mindful of such differential effects, particularly if the aim is to address persistent gender disparities in children's status.     

HIV/AIDS Knowledge and Behaviour: Have Information Campaigns Reduced HIV Infection? The Case of Kenya*

Abstract: AIDS continues to have a devastating effect on developing countries, particularly in sub‐Saharan Africa. The lack of a proven effective vaccine to stop HIV transmission has led to much of public policy putting an emphasis on information campaigns in order to reduce HIV‐prevalence. In this paper we examine the impact of HIV/AIDS‐knowledge from two sides. First, we examine to what extent the campaigns have been successful at inducing the expected behavioural change with regards to HIV‐related attitudes. Second, we examine the impact of HIV/AIDS knowledge on HIV status. The basic policy issue can be expressed as follows: even if individuals have acquired sufficient and necessary information on the basic facts about AIDS, factors such as innate risk attitudes or cultural background could undermine the effects of the campaigns. Using the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (2003) we elicit empirical evidence on the relation between declared HIV/AIDS‐knowledge, behavioural attitudes related to HIV/AIDS situations and the relation between knowledge and observed HIV‐status. Overall, our empirical findings suggest that information campaigns have been effective at equipping the adult population in Kenya with the required knowledge to avoid becoming HIV‐positive. However, when HIV‐status is measured objectively we find that the relation between correctly declared attitudes and actual behaviour is only statistically significant for females who have arrived into sexuality late enough to benefit from such campaigns: it is for these females that the impact of the information campaigns has been to statistically reduce the probability of becoming HIV positive, as intended. In the case of males we find that there is no statistical relation between either knowledge or timing of the information campaigns and a positive HIV status. Nevertheless, another important finding refers to the selection bias induced by males who are sampled randomly but decline to take the HIV test. The consequences of this bias are twofold; first, the estimated policy parameters for males should be interpreted with caution, but more importantly, estimating the population level HIV‐prevalence for Kenyan males based on the DHS implies underestimating the true and unknown prevalence rate. Our analysis controls for individual characteristics, selection bias and endogeneity effects, thus allowing us to make inferences for the full population and with regards to policy implementation.     

金融衍生品OTC市场交易的法律问题研究

随着全球金融衍生品OTC市场交易量日益增加，OTC交易的法律纠纷也呈增长态势。文章通过对全球知名金融衍生品OTC交易纠纷进行分析，并指出了交易全球化和快速化出现的新问题，希望能对“中国版ISDA协议”的设计提供借鉴。     

论网络虚拟财产及其法律保护

随着网络和网络游戏的迅速发展,近年虚拟财产纠纷不断发生,虚拟财产问题逐渐引起社会的广泛关注,网络虚拟财产的法律保护问题在法学界也逐渐升温。文章首先对虚拟财产的概念、特征、性质等问题做了界定,然后就网络虚拟财产法律保护的必要性进行了论述,最后在分析我国目前网络虚拟财产法律保护的现状与不足的基础上,提出了我国网络虚拟财产法律保护的完善措施。     

Effects of farm credit access on agricultural commercialization in Ghana: Empirical evidence from the northern Savannah ecological zone

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how farmers' access to credit affects agricultural commercialization in the northern Savannah ecological zone of Ghana. The study uses data from the Ghana Feed the Future baseline survey involving a total sample of 2,962 farm households. The study employs endogenous switching regression for ordered outcomes to account for endogeneity and self‐selection bias in the decision to access credit. The results from the estimations revealed that education, age, nonfarm business equipment, multiple crop production, and group membership are the variables influencing farmers' access to credit. Agricultural commercialization is determined by gender, age, marital status, household size, farm size, nonfarm business equipment, means of transport, group membership, assets index, multiple crop production, and location. In terms of causal effect, the results show that credit access stimulates higher commercialization. Thus policies that enhance farmers' access to credit are more likely to be successful in getting them to commercialize.     

Socioeconomic status and judicial disparities in England and Wales, 1870–1910

In a criminal sentencing system based on optimal deterrence, groups will receive different average sentences based on disparities in conviction probabilities, with longer prison sentences balancing more frequent acquittals. A taste-based model makes no such prediction. I compare these models using trial records from England and Wales in 1870, 1883, and 1910, years with extensive jury trials and broad latitude in sentencing for judges. In the earlier years, higher status defendants accused of property crimes receive substantially longer sentences, with no such difference for violent crimes. In contrast, higher status defendants are less likely to be convicted at trial, both when accused of property crimes and of violent crimes. In a Heckman selection empirical model, selection into sentencing has a large effect on the magnitude of these sentencing patterns. For property crimes, there is negative selection on unobservable traits, possibly explained by using imperfect proxies for social class. I conclude that an optimal sentencing and deterrence model is more supported for property crimes than for violent ones, with judges balancing disparate rates of conviction from juries.     

中国环境保护法庭困境与出路之探究

自2007年首个环境保护法庭在中国设立,经过多年的司法实践,环境司法专业化改革在初获成效的同时也暴露了很多问题.案源少、机构设置不规范、司法专业化有待提高等都成为环境保护法庭必须面对并亟待解决的问题.针对环境保护法庭所面临的问题,在借鉴国内外的典型环保法庭（院）体制和机制的基础上,从统一立案标准、规范法庭级别设置、加强人员专业化和完善司法鉴定制度等方面探讨中国环境保护法庭的发展出路.     

Challenging the conventional approaches to natural resource management/environmental planning in rural development: A regional political ecology analysis of Maputaland

It is argued that despite much research and monitoring of the physical manifestations of land degradation, there is a paucity of work which actually shows the socio‐economic and political interactions between land use, ecosystems and land degradation. In order to cope with the difficult interdisciplinary demands of such a study, regional political ecology (RPE) is suggested as an alternative conceptual framework. A particular methodology from this framework, namely ‘the chains of explanation’, is described using the Maputaland region as an example. Common property resources are discussed, as are factors likely to lead to the weakening of local institutions and natural resource management (NRM). The importance of using indigenous technical knowledge and participatory research such as farming systems research (FSR) as the building blocks for developing NRM policy is emphasized. However local initiatives need the support and space to operate that only regional and national institutions can provide.     

Nature as historical protagonist: environment and society in pre‐industrial England

This article compares chronologies reconstructed from historical records of prices, wages, grain harvests, and population with corresponding chronologies of growing conditions and climatic variations derived from dendrochronology and Greenland ice‐cores. It demonstrates that in pre‐industrial, and especially late medieval, England, short‐term environmental shocks and more enduring shifts in environmental conditions (sometimes acting in concert with biological agencies) exercised a powerful influence upon the balance struck between population and available resources via their effects upon the reproduction, health and life expectancy of humans, crops, and livestock. Prevailing socio‐economic conditions and institutions, in turn, shaped society's susceptibility to these environmental shocks and shifts.     

Are Art Auction Estimates Biased?

This article considers whether presale auction estimates are unbiased predictors of price when “no‐sales” are considered utilizing a newly constructed sample of over 500 works by eight early twentieth‐century American artists. Unbiased presale auction estimates in predicting price, while expected, are generally not supported in previous work, but these studies (excepting one) do not include no‐sales in the calculations. In order to study the question, we employ a standard approach that uses an inverse Mills ratio arising from a sample selection probit to correct for selection bias. We find that controlling for selection bias, presale auction estimates appear to be biased downward, and we offer possible reasons for this result.     

Economic efficiency and the common law

Do legal rules based on the common law in the U.S. result in economically efficient outcomes? Beginning with Posner and Rubin, a substantial amount of literature supports the hypothesis that there is a natural tendency for common law to evolve over time so as to yield economically efficient court rulings. According to this view, disputants will litigate whenever the existing rules are inefficient. If the rules are efficient then no such incentive exists, in which case the legal rules are affirmed. By respectifying the Rubin model as a two-person, non-cooperative, simultaneous-move game, the analysis presented in this paper appears to support the arguments put forth by Landes, Gould, Tullock, and others that there is a general tendency for the disputants to pursue an out-of-court settlement. The analysis also suggests that it may also be in the litigant's best interest to negotiate an out-of-court settlement when the legal rules are efficient if the expected net present value of accident and avoidance costs is less than the litigants' court costs. Finally, it may pay to litigate even when the legal rules are efficient if the expected net present value of accident and avoidance costs is greater than the sum of the litigants' court costs.     

FRAND Royalties and Injunctions for Standard Essential Patents

Abstract

I develop a stylized model of court procedures that resolve disputes concerning FRAND-encumbered standard essential patents (SEPs). I analyze the effects of injunctions and potential court-imposed FRAND rates on negotiated royalty rates. The SEP holders’ ability to hold-up is constrained by the prospect of the court-imposed license terms in case of disputes, but is not completely eliminated. Possible mechanisms to address the residual hold-up power of the SEP holders are discussed.     

Awareness of SEC Enforcement and Auditor Reporting Decisions

We find that non‐Big 4 audit offices with greater awareness of SEC enforcement are more likely to issue first‐time going‐concern reports to distressed clients; where SEC “awareness” is measured using (i) audit office proximity to SEC regional offices, and (ii) proximity to specific SEC enforcement actions against auditors. We also show that these non‐Big 4 audit offices issue more going‐concern opinions to clients who do not subsequently fail, indicating a conservative bias that reduces the informativeness of audit reports. This conservative reporting bias is also associated with higher audit fees and higher auditor switching rates. These findings are important because non‐Big 4 firms now audit 39 percent of SEC registrants and issue 88 percent of going‐concern audit reports. For Big 4 offices, we find some evidence that awareness of SEC enforcement may improve reporting accuracy by reducing Type II errors (failing to issue a going‐concern report to a company that fails), although the number of cases is small.