Aging and social expenditures in Italy: some issues associated with population projections

"After describing the main results of the recent Italian population projections, and some possible consequences...aging may have on social expenditures, this paper focuses on attempts to improve the accuracy of development assumptions, with special regard to natural components. Emphasis is placed on the importance of applying specific methodological tools to define self-explanatory assumptions for fertility and mortality and to produce projections which could be considered, with reasonable limitations, as real forecasts."     

Analyzing social policy alternatives through modeling and forecasting of the consumption,composition, and incomes of the population

The article continues researches started under the guidance and with active participation of E.Yu. Faerman, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), within the framework of the RAS Central Economics and Mathematics Institute Population, Incomes, and Consumption system, aimed at modeling and forecasting the population composition, incomes, and consumption using a number of methods (including the multilevel complex structuring of the population and its incomes and consumption, modeling and forecasting shadow employment and incomes, and so on) and a complex statistical database. Comparative analysis of the results of four variants of inertial forecasts of socioeconomic indicators of different levels (the population as a whole, its functional layers, and their social and socioeconomic constituent groups) has been performed, including official and unofficial incomes and shadow employment; scenarios of social policy have been studied, including the income policy, labor compensation problems, and the social transfer policy; and economic consequences of the income legalization scenario have been evaluated.     

China's explicit social security debt: How large?

Local governments in China have used a large amount of funds from individual accounts to finance deficits in the pay-as-you-go social pooling account, resulting in explicit social security debt. It is undoubtedly useful to know how large the debt is and how it will evolve in the future. This paper assesses the debt in China's social security individual accounts. It shows detailed calculations of the revenue, the anticipated funds, expenditures, and the debt in the individual accounts since their inception in 1997. The social security debt for China reached 1.59% of the GDP in 2015. The paper also assesses the historical social security debt in the individual accounts for each province. It shows that social security debt is unevenly spread, reaching more than 10% in Heilongjiang province and being negative in Guangdong province in 2015. The determinants for high debt in the individual accounts are examined based on the data from thirty-one Chinese provinces from 1997 to 2015. The paper also forecasts social security debt in the future and finds that the social security debt will reach over 8% of GDP in 2025 if the current system remains unchanged. Various ways to reduce the social security debt are also explored.     

Forecasting the dynamics of per capita meat consumption by the population of Russia under conditions of inflation

The paper describes the instruments developed by the author for imitation modeling of per capita meat and meat product consumption by the population of Russia taking into consideration the exogenously assigned trends of change in per capita cash incomes, consumer prices, and inflation rates. The results of prediction calculations for the period of 2010–2012 using the developed instruments are presented. The consequences of implementing the forecasts of the socioeconomic development of Russia until 2012 are analyzed on their basis.     

How better targeting of social spending affects social delivery in South Africa

Social spending has become a major tool of targeting resources to South Africa's poor. The poor now get considerably more than their population share of social spending, but the underlying distribution of income is so skewed that overall post-fiscal inequality has not improved much. Concentration ratios and curves show considerable shifts in social spending incidence in the period 1995 to 2006. However, the efficiency of that spending is low, resulting in limited social outcomes and consequently also limited gains to the poor from better targeting. This paper therefore calls for the South African policy discussion to shift to why the ever-increasing fiscal inputs and improved targeting of those inputs have not produced the desired social outcomes.     

An assessment of the forms of social effect when implementing investment projects

Mechanisms generating various forms of social effects arising from the realization of investment projects are considered in the paper. A formalized procedure is suggested for assessing a project’s aggregate social efficiency.     

Development of scenario conditions as a key stage of economic forecast preparation

Formation of coordinated economic development forecasts is impossible without elaborating hypotheses and assumptions about the development of the world economy, situation in key commodity and exchange markets, parameters of economic policy, etc. The quality of forecasts and their feasibility mainly depend on how well these indices are coordinated. Different approaches to the formation of macroeconomic scenarios are considered in the paper in the framework of preparation of macroeconomic forecasts of Russia’s economic development in the medium- and long-term perspective.     

Anti-crisis measures of population social protection

The practice of strengthening of the state social function within a crisis period is considered in this paper, as are certain measures of financial and organizational support of different groups of the population in the employment and consumption sphere aimed at prevention of growth of poverty and continuing of implementation of previously selected social policy directions.     

二元老年社会保障体制的尴尬与对策研究

我国面临着严峻的人口老龄化挑战已是一个不争的事实,同时让我们必须正视的是农村人口老龄化程度远远高于城市,但农村老年社会保障却与城市相差甚远,呈二元结构。本文以《中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查》研究报告数据为基础,对我国城市和农村的老年人口的养老保障、医疗保障、社会福利、为老服务等方面进行了对比分析,并在此基础上对解决途径进行探讨。     

The effects of social security on population and output growth

"In this paper we have considered two unfunded social security programs. Under the conventional system, benefits are related to aggregate fertility; under the hypothetical fertility-related system, benefits are directly linked to individual fertility. The effects on fertility and per capita growth rates of the two social security systems are examined in the context of endogenous growth." The relative merits of the two systems for developing and developed countries are considered. The authors conclude that "the conventional social security system existing in many developed nations may be desirable to...developing countries in reducing population and promoting economic growth. On the other hand, the hypothetical fertility-related system may be useful to developed countries as far as increasing fertility is concerned."     

Coase theorem,liability rules and social optimum

Zusammenfassung Das Coase-Theorem, Haftungsregeln und das soziale Optimum. — In diesem Beitrag haben wir gezeigt, da\ es zwei Wege gibt, das Coase-Theorem darzustellen; erstens unter Verwendung von Eigentumsrechten und zweitens unter Verwendung von Haftungsregeln. Wir haben bewiesen, da\ das Coase-Theorem richtig ist, wenn es in der Form von Eigentumsrechten und symmetrischen Haftungsregeln dargestellt wird. Es wird gezeigt, da\ sowohl der Beweis von Gilford und Stone als auch die Widerlegung von Marchand und Rüssel falsch sind. Allerdings k?nnen beide Aufs?tze als Analysen der Wirkungen von Haftungsregeln auf die Ressourcenallokation ohne Handel angesehen werden und als Vorschl?ge für m?gliche Haftungsregeln, die von den Regierungen erlassen werden k?nnen, um die externen Effekte zu korrigieren. Wenn allerdings die von der Regierung erlassene Haftungsregelung asymmetrisch ist, dann h?ngt die Ressourcenallokation von der Art dieser Regelung ab. Wird das soziale Optimum lediglich im Hinblick auf die Technologie definiert, dann sind der Handel zwischen den Beteiligten und die Pigouschen Steuern sich gegenseitig ausschlie\ende Verfahren, um das soziale Optimum zu erreichen. Findet kein Handel statt, dann ist die einseitige Pigou-Steuer ausreichend, um das soziale Optimum zu erreichen. Wird andererseits das soziale Optimum sowohl vom Standpunkt der Technologie als auch in rechtlicher Hinsicht definiert, dann führt die einseitige Pigou-Steuer nicht zu einer sozial optimalen Ressourcenallokation.

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Résumé Le théorème de Coase, les règles d’obligation et l’optimum social. — Dans cet article nous avons démontré qu’il y a deux méthodes différentes de déterminer le théorème de Coase. Une méthode est à la manière des droits de propriété et l’autre à la manière des règles d’obligation. Nous avons prouvé que le théorème de Coase est correct s’il est déterminé à la manière des droits de propriété et des règles d’obligation symétriques. Nous démontrons que la preuve présentée par Gilford et Stone est incorrecte aussi bien que la dispreuve du théorème de Coase présentée par Marchand et Russel. Cependant, on peut regarder les deux papiers comme des analyses des effets des règles d’obligation sur l’allocation de ressource en l’absence de commerce et comme des propositions des règles d’obligation possibles que le gouvernement devrait imposer pour corriger l’externalité. Cependant, si la règle d’obligation imposée par les gouvernements soit asymétrique l’allocation de ressource dépend des règles d’obligation imposées. Si l’optimum social soit défini seulement à la manière de la technologie le commerce entre les parties touchées et une taxe Pigovienne sont des moyens mutuellement exclusifs pour arriver au optimum social. En l’absence du commerce la taxe unilatérale Pigovienne est suffisante pour arriver au optimum social. D’autre part, si l’optimum social soit défini à la manière de la technologie aussi bien que de l’institution legale, une taxe unilatérale Pigovienne ne conduira pas à l’allocation de ressource d’optimum social.

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Resumen El teorema de Coase, reglas de endeudamiento y óptimo social. — En este artículo hemos mostrado que hay dos caminos diferentes para plantear el teorema de Coase. Uno en términos de los derechos de propiedad y el otro en términos de las reglas de endeudamiento. Hemos mostrado que el teorema de Coase es correcto cuando es planteado en términos de los derechos de propiedad y reglas de endeudamiento simétricas. Se muestra que la prueba presentada por Gilford y Stone es incorrecta, como también la desaprobación del teorema de Coase presentada por Marchand y Russel. Sin embargo, ambos artículos pueden ser tratados como analisis de los efectos de reglas de endeudamiento sobre la asignación de recursos en ausencia de comercio y como sugerencias de posibles reglas de endeudamiento a ser propuestas por los gobiernos para corregir la externalidad. Pero, cuando la regla de endeudamiento impuesta por los gobiernos es asimétrica, la asignación de recursos depende de las reglas de endeudamiento impuestas. Si el óptimo social es definido solamente en términos de tecnología, el comercio entre las partes comprometidas y el impuesto de Pigou son dispositivos mutuamente excluyentes para alcanzar el óptimo social. En ausencia de comercio, el impuesto unilateral de Pigou es suficiente para alcanzar el óptimo social. Por el otro lado, si el óptimo social es definido tanto en términos de la tecnología como de la institución legal, el impuesto unilateral de Pigou no llevará a una asignación social de recursos óptima.

     

Estimated importance of seasonal adjustment on energy forecasts

Conclusions A short-term petroleum model has been estimated and forecast using alternative seasonality routines. Parameter estimates were generally plausible ona priori grounds across routines. Five of the seven routines produced similar forecasts even if the differences in the similar forecasts could be troublesome. A policy scenario was analyzed and a spectrum of results was forth-coming. Much time, thought, and effort is often placed in estimating with deseasonalized data. This paper has shown the need to critically examine whatever seasonal routine is employed since seasonality sensitivity can overwhelm other effects. Forecasters have a justification for skepticism about “canned” seasonality routines. Seasonality has been shown to be important in terms of its impact on the final results; seasonality analysis should be examined and presented with as much care as the analysis of the deseasonalized data. Support for this project was provided by the Federal Energy Administration, Office of Oil and Gas.     

Economic integration, wage policies, and social policies

This paper sets up a two country monopolistic competition modelwith intra-industry trade to study the effects of an exogenousdifferential in wage and social policies on the location ofindustry. Two model scenarios are considered. In the traditionalone with physical capital, such a differential induces a relocationeffect which increases with the level of trade integration.The ‘new economic geography’ world assumes mobileentrepreneurs which can relocate thus bringing agglomerationforces into play. The most significant difference between thisworld and the traditional one is that, at high levels of tradeintegration, where one country has emerged as the core and theother as the periphery, the core may have more generous socialpolicies and higher wages than the periphery without inducinga relocation of firms. The scope to have higher wage is constrained,however, and related to the level of trade integration in abell-shaped way.     

Cognitive skills, test scores, and social stratification: The role of family and school-level resources on racial/ethnic differences in scores on standardized tests (AFQT)

Conclusion  In this paper I ahve shown that scores on the AFQT are a function of family and school level material resources and investments on individual development. The AFQT is not a measure of “intelligence (IQ),” “ability,” or “cognitive skills.” The AFQT is in large part a measure of access to material resources, social investments, and exposure to the values, experiences, and networks of the white upper middle class.     

苏南现代化建设示范区经济、人口与社会医疗保险——以常熟市居民基本(农村合作)医疗保险为例

经济社会发展、人口老龄化和现代化社会医疗保险制度建设的关系,是当前苏南现代化社会医疗保险制度建设的重大课题。文章基于对常熟市居民基本(农村合作)医疗保险的研究,发现:政策延续与经济发展是以常熟市为代表的苏南现代化建设示范区社会医疗保险制度建设取得改革发展先机的重要因素;持续加深的人口老龄化程度对社会医疗保险基金安全和补偿支出结构的负面冲击已经逐步显现;提高补偿标准和改革支付方式在一定程度上优化了参保居民就诊结构,增强了社会医疗保险的宏观经济保障能力,但长期对提高社会医疗保险制度的宏观经济保障能力的作用非常有限。基于以上研究发现,提出政策建议:通过吸纳外来务工人员以优化参保人群年龄结构是解决人口老龄化挑战的关键;重视疾病预防,特别是慢性病早期预防,加强多部门疾病预防协同合作是应对人口老龄化的重要措施。     

Bias and Accuracy of Management Earnings Forecasts: An Evaluation of the Impact of Auditing*

This paper assesses how the bias and accuracy of managers' earnings forecasts in prospectuses were affected by a 1989 regulation that required the forecasts to be audited by public accountants. Theory suggests that auditors' association with the forecasts would reduce positive (optimistic) bias, by reducing moral hazard. Regulators expected that the audit requirement would also improve the accuracy of the forecasts. Both predictions were tested using management earnings forecasts disclosed in prospectuses of Canadian initial public offerings. The results show that audited forecasts contained significantly less positive bias than reviewed forecasts, but there was only a marginally significant improvement in accuracy.     

人口结构、社会保障对广东省居民储蓄水平的影响

人口结构、社会保障关系到人们的储蓄与消费问题,本文将两者结合起来分析其对居民储蓄的影响,并运用广东省1990～2010年的数据对社会保障支出水平、老人赡养比、儿童抚养比与广东省居民储蓄进行验证。通过协整与误差修正模型研究发现:社会保障水平无论是在短期还是在长期都会对居民的储蓄水平产生影响,人口结构也是影响居民储蓄的一大因素,并在此基础上给出相应的建议。     

Optimal population growth and the social welfare function

The social welfare function criterion offers an approach to the theory of optimal economic growth that is intermediate between the 2 most frequently used utilitarian models--those that maximize per capita utility and those that maximize total utility. According to the welfare criterion, societal welfare depends not only on the level of per capita consumption, but also on the population density in the area in which an individual resides. The model postualtes that, for a given level of per capita consumption, total utility increases with increasing density, reaches a maximum, and then declines with further population increases due to the deleterious effect of overcrowding on the quality of life (e.g., the quality of education, recreational facilities, and environmental factors such as clean air and pure water). The overall objective of the model is to identify the optimal per capita consumption and population size that maximize the discounted social welfare. Optimal population growth occurs when the increase in the discounted social welfare resulting from the introduction of a new member equals the reduction in welfare created by that addition (modified Meade Rule), while per capita accumulation equals the sum of the population growth rate and the social rate of time preference (modified Golden Rule). This model could be extended to consider technological change more explicitly and its effect on optimal outcomes.     

An Approach to Adjusting Analysts' Consensus Forecasts for Selection Bias*

Many recent empirical studies have concluded that analysts' earnings forecasts are optimistic on average. In this paper, we attempt to undo the effect of one potential source of optimistic bias in analysts' earnings forecasts. Assuming forecasts come from a truncated normal distribution, we estimate the “true” population mean using maximum likelihood. We find that our estimates of earnings are more accurate and less biased than standard measures of sample mean and median. However, we do not find a closer relationship between excess market returns and forecast errors from our maximum likelihood estimate than from the sample mean. This may suggest that the market does not fully incorporate analysts' incentives in generating expectations about future earnings.     

Inter-group Disparities in the Distributional Analysis of Human Development: Concepts,Measurement, and Illustrative Applications

An important feature of most segmented societies is that deprivations and well-being achievements are unequally distributed across well-defined sub-groups of the population, when the latter is partitioned according to a variety of social or geographical categories, such as gender, caste, ethnicity, religion, occupation, sector of origin, or region of domicile. Group disparities are a matter of both instrumental interest in assessing the nature of a society (such as in terms of its propensity for conflict) and intrinsic concern in evaluations of a society’s record of ‘horizontal’ distributive justice. One aspect of a study of population heterogeneity would reside in the measurement of inter-group inequalities in the distribution of a society’s burdens and benefits. It is this aspect of the problem that is reviewed in the present paper. It is useful to note that group inequality can be categorized into different types (which are nevertheless mutually linked by certain commonalities of purpose and motivation), and a particularly instructive taxonomy is available in a recent paper by Arjun Jayadev and Sanjay Reddy (‘Inequalities and Identities’, which is available on the website of the Social Science Research Network, at ). The present paper also presents taxonomy of alternative approaches to reckoning group inequality, and discusses a number of real-valued measures of group disparity, mainly based on work in which this author has earlier engaged, by himself or in collaboration.