A Model of Financialization of Commodities

We analyze how institutional investors entering commodity futures markets, referred to as the financialization of commodities, affect commodity prices. Institutional investors care about their performance relative to a commodity index. We find that all commodity futures prices, volatilities, and correlations go up with financialization, but more so for index futures than for nonindex futures. The equity‐commodity correlations also increase. We demonstrate how financial markets transmit shocks not only to futures prices but also to commodity spot prices and inventories. Spot prices go up with financialization, and shocks to any index commodity spill over to all storable commodity prices.     

国外著名商品指数编制比较及其对我国的启示

商品期货指数,是商品期货的金融化,是期货市场发展到一定阶段的必然产物。为了更好编制和开发我国商品指数及其衍生品,本文对国外著名商品指数的编制方法从编制目的和原则、品种选择、权重设计、合约选择、指数计算等五个方面进行全方位比较研究,进而提出编制我国相关商品指数的总体思路。     

A model of commodity money

Commodity money is modeled as one or two of the capital goods in a one-consumption good and one or two capital-good, overlapping generations model. Among the topics addressed using versions of the model are (i) the nature of the inefficiency of commodity money, (ii) the validity of quantity-theory predictions for commodity money systems, (iii) the circumstances under which one commodity emerges naturally as the commodity money, (iv) the role of inside money (money backed by private debt) in commodity money systems and (v) the circumstances under which a government can choose the commodity to serve as the commodity money.     

China's Imported Inflation and Global Commodity Prices

In this paper, we outline China's imported inflation via global commodity prices. We show that the prices of China's imported commodities are strongly related to global commodity prices. Meanwhile, the final goods prices from upstream industries are strongly influenced by global commodity prices. However, this effect is partially offset by the production process—that is, the final goods prices in downstream industries are generally less affected by global prices. This indicates that China's commodity market has a close link with global commodity markets. Therefore, high global commodity prices generally squeeze profits in China's downstream industries; upstream industries generally benefit from high global commodity prices.     

Variance risk in commodity markets

We analyze the variance risk of commodity markets. We construct synthetic variance swaps and find significantly negative realized variance swap payoffs in most markets. We find evidence of commonalities among the realized payoffs of commodity variance swaps. We also document comovements between the realized payoffs of commodity, equity and bond variance swaps. Similar results hold for expected variance swap payoffs. Furthermore, we show that both realized and expected commodity variance swap payoffs are distinct from the realized and expected commodity futures returns, indicating that variance risk is unspanned by commodity futures.     

Commodity money inflation: theory and evidence from France in 1350–1436

This paper presents a theory of inflation in commodity money and supports it by evidence from inflationary episodes in France during the 14th and 15th centuries. The paper shows that commodity money can be inflated similarly to fiat money through repeated debasements, which act like devaluations. Furthermore, as with fiat money, demand for commodity money falls with inflation. However, at high rates of inflation demand for commodity money becomes insensitive to inflation, since commodity money has intrinsic value in addition to its transactions value. Finally, we show that anticipated stabilization reduces demand for commodity money.     

多资产大宗商品期权定价研究

基于大宗商品收益率与便利收益服从均值回复过程的假设,建立带协整效应的多资产大宗商品期权定价模型,求解多资产大宗商品期权价格的解析解,将大宗商品期权定价推广到更一般情况.结果表明:标的资产收益率增加,期权价格上升,替代品期权价格下降;标的资产的便利收益增加,期权价格下降,相应替代品的期权价格上升.     

Predictability of structural co-movement in commodity prices: the role of technical indicators

This paper investigates the financialization and structural co-movement of several commodity futures using factor variance decomposition and predictability of technical indicators and macro variables. We find that financialization is still a dominant player in the commodity market and that recent commodity price fluctuations can be significantly and robustly forecasted by technical analyses of commodity index investments. Moreover, the co-movement of commodities is demonstrated by variance decomposition and explained as commodity index investment, which provides evidence of financialization. The overall empirical analysis reveals that technical indicators and macro variables can statistically and economically forecast the indexed investment and off-index trading, respectively, which indicates that they are suitable predictors of the commodity markets.     

Investment shocks and the commodity basis spread

I identify a “slope” factor in the cross section of commodity futures returns: high-basis commodity futures have higher loadings on this factor than low-basis commodity futures. Combined with a level factor (an index of commodity futures), this slope factor explains most of the average excess returns of commodity futures portfolios sorted by basis. More importantly, I find that this factor is significantly correlated with investment shocks, which represent the technological progress in producing new capital. I investigate a competitive dynamic equilibrium model of commodity production to endogenize this correlation. The model reproduces the cross-sectional futures returns and many asset pricing tests.     

Commodity betas with mean reverting output prices

This paper provides a theoretical derivation of commodity beta (stock price sensitivity to commodity price) using a contingent-claim model. The model incorporates operating leverage, financial leverage, costly financial distress, and mean reverting commodity prices; and highlights the important role played by the speed of reversion of the commodity price. It is used to identify theoretically the main determinants of commodity beta. Commodity beta is predicted to be an increasing function of the operating and financial leverage of the firm, and a decreasing function of the company’s tax rate and the level, volatility and speed of reversion of the commodity price. Empirical tests with a sample of gold mining firms provide support for these predictions, particularly the new implications of the model (the effect of the commodity price’s speed of reversion and the company’s tax rate).     

全球商品期货市场的发展趋势展望

本文从商品期货市场发展的现状出发,阐述了中国商品期货市场所取得的成就以及尚处于初级阶段的现实,并深入剖析当前宏观经济形势对大宗商品期货市场的复杂影响,展望了未来国际及国内商品期货市场的发展。     

Real exchanges rates in commodity producing countries: A reappraisal

Commodity price booms, as those recorded in the last decade, may have a significant economic impact in small, commodity exporting, developing countries. Whether the impact on output is positive or negative is still unclear. It depends on various factors, notably on the impact that commodity prices can have on the real exchange rate of the commodity exporting countries. Two recent papers show that the real exchange rate appreciates when commodity prices increase. Our analysis produces new estimates of this relationship by focusing on a large sample of developing countries which are specialized in the export of one leading commodity. By using non-stationary panel techniques robust to cross-sectional dependence, we find that the price of the dominant commodity has a significant long-run impact on the real exchange rate when the exports of the leading commodity have a share of at least 20 percent in the country's total exports of merchandises. Our results also show that the larger this share, the larger the size of the impact.     

Informational Frictions and Commodity Markets

This paper develops a model with a tractable log‐linear equilibrium to analyze the effects of informational frictions in commodity markets. By aggregating dispersed information about the strength of the global economy among goods producers whose production has complementarity, commodity prices serve as price signals to guide producers' production decisions and commodity demand. Our model highlights important feedback effects of informational noise originating from supply shocks and futures market trading on commodity demand and spot prices. Our analysis illustrates the weakness common in empirical studies on commodity markets of assuming that different types of shocks are publicly observable to market participants.     

Stock markets’ bubbles burst and volatility spillovers in agricultural commodity markets

Our paper focuses on commodity financialization and the gradual integration between commodity and financial markets, investigating to what extent shocks in stock markets impact commodity price volatility, and the persistency of the phenomenon. To this end, we estimate Volatility Impulse Response Function from stock markets to agricultural commodity markets over a symmetric window before and after two of the most important bubble bursts since the new millennium, the 2000 dot.com bubble and the 2008 financial crises. Results highlight that volatility spillover increased significantly after the 2008 financial crises, signalling a rising interconnection between financial and agricultural commodity markets.     

The optimal commodity tax structure in a four-good model

This paper examines the structure of optimal commodity tax rates in a four-good model with nonvanishing cross-elasticities between commodities. The following optimal tax rules are obtained: (i) at the optimum, the tax rate on the commodity that is the least substitutable for leisure is higher than that on the commodity that is the most substitutable for leisure; (ii) the greater the cross-substitutability between two commodities, the closer to uniformity are the optimal commodity tax rates on those two commodities. In addition, the condition under which all commodity tax rates are ranked is identified. JEL Classification H21     

Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets

We build an equilibrium model of commodity markets in which speculators are capital constrained, and commodity producers have hedging demands for commodity futures. Increases in producers' hedging demand or speculators' capital constraints increase hedging costs via price-pressure on futures. These in turn affect producers' equilibrium hedging and supply decision inducing a link between a financial friction in the futures market and the commodity spot prices. Consistent with the model, measures of producers' propensity to hedge forecasts futures returns and spot prices in oil and gas market data from 1979 to 2010. The component of the commodity futures risk premium associated with producer hedging demand rises when speculative activity reduces. We conclude that limits to financial arbitrage generate limits to hedging by producers, and affect equilibrium commodity supply and prices.     

Commodity prices and GDP growth

This paper explores the extent to which commodity prices can predict GDP growth rates of various countries using indices of 27 commonly traded commodity futures. Commodity returns can strongly predict the next quarter's GDP growth, while the basis shows a reasonable level of predictive power. Overall, commodity prices can be considered a leading indicator of economic growth; increasing commodity prices and basis values indicate a stronger future economy.     

Factor pricing in commodity futures and the role of liquidity

This paper empirically investigates the pricing factors and their associated risk premiums of commodity futures. Existing pricing factors in equity and bond markets, including market premium and term structure, are tested in commodity futures markets. Hedging pressure in commodity futures markets and momentum effects is also considered. This study combines these factors to discuss their importance in explaining commodity future returns, while the literature has studied these factors separately. One of the important pricing factors in equity and bond markets is liquidity, but its role as a pricing factor in commodity futures markets has not yet been studied. To our knowledge, this research is the first to study liquidity as a pricing factor in commodity futures. The risk premiums of two momentum factors and speculators’ hedging pressure range from 2% to 3% per month and are greater than the risk premiums of roll yield (0.8%) and liquidity (0.5%). The result of a significant liquidity premium suggests that liquidity is priced in commodity futures.     

Does Index Speculation Impact Commodity Prices? An Intraday Analysis

Using intraday data, we find unidirectional causality from commodity index‐linked futures to nonindex‐linked commodity futures for up to one hour which disappears when using daily data. Also, the economic significance of index‐linked to nonindex commodity transmission declines to zero within about an hour. Finally, we find that the magnitude of index‐linked to nonindex return transmission is positively related to the amount of speculation, both long and short, in S&P GSCI commodity index futures. We conclude that speculative pressures exerted by commodity index futures can impact nonindex commodities, mainly through the activity of uninformed, positive feedback traders.     

Commodity volatility breaks

Volatility is a key determinant of derivative prices and optimal hedge ratios. This paper examines whether there are structural breaks in commodity spot return volatility using an iterative cumulative sum of squares procedure and then uses GARCH (1,1) to model volatility during each regime.The main empirical finding is the very limited evidence of commodity volatility breaks during the recent financial crisis. This suggests commodity return volatility was not exceptionally high during the recent financial crisis compared to the 1985–2010 sample period as a whole. For many commodities there are multiple idiosyncratic breaks in volatility; this suggests commodity specific supply or demand factors are important determinants of volatility. The empirical results overall are consistent with the view that commodities are too diverse to be considered as an asset class. Finally, we find commodity volatility persistence remains very high for many commodity returns even after structural breaks are accounted for.