期货市场与现货市场的试错联动分析——论期货市场功能

文章立足于社会试错成本的视角分析了期货市场功能,认为期货市场的主要功能之一是节约社会试错成本.现货市场在不断的试错和经济波动过程中导致社会资源出现无效配置,而期货市场可以通过社会试错成本的节约来降低现实市场中的实物资源配置的试错成本,以实现资源的最大节约.充分发挥期货市场在资源配置中的作用,有利于促进我国节约型社会的构建.     

期货套期保值是怎样实现的

期货套期保值是怎样实现的中央财政金融学院研究所刘姝威１期货市场有两大功能：规避风险和价格发现。对于参加期货交易的企业法人来说，最重要的是利用期货规避风险，也就是说，利用期货套期保值。传统的套期保值概念是指商品期货与现货市场已经有的或将要有的同种商品数...     

可储存商品期货的价格稳定作用研究——期货—商品市场动态均衡模型

文章通过建立期货--商品市场动态均衡模型,推导出在没有生产不确定性,商品是可储存的,所有市场参与者具有相同信息的假设下,期货市场几乎毫无疑问的会减少商品价格的波动.模型中,首次提出了"竞争性价格预期"的方程和概念,并分析了"竞争性价格预期"所反映的期货市场价格发现功能对于商品市场价格稳定的重要影响.     

我国期货市场价格与CPI关系研究

我们利用近几年期货价格指数与消费价格指数数据,对两者的现行关系进行实证研究,结果表明从期货市场价格指数到CPI存在因果关系,先行时间5个月,且存在长期均衡关系。但是期货市场的价格发现功能依然存在某些缺陷。因此,应当进一步完善我国的期货市场,使商品期货指数成为监测我国经济景气的指示器。     

上证50股指期货核心功能研究

上证50股指期货的出现对股票市场的价格形成机制和市场风险规避能力产生了重要的影响.本文将研究上证50股指期货的核心功能,一方面通过ADF检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验验证了上证50股指期货和现货之间的价格发现功能,发现上证50股指期货对现货具有价格发现功能,现货对期货没有价格发现功能;另一方面通过使用OLS模型、VAR模型和ECM模型等静态套期保值模型研究上证50股指期货和现货之间的套期保值功能,发现上证50股指期货的套期保值的有效性较好,并且给出上证50股指期货市场的最优套期保值比率,用于实现现货市场风险的有效转移.     

我国期货市场过度投机行为分析

适度投机的作用与过度投机的危害在期货市场上,所谓投机是指一种对市场动向加以预测,并伺机利用价格的波动而获取利润的行为。期货市场本意是为那些对实物商品感兴趣的生产厂家和贸易商进行套期保值而设立的,其基本功能有两个,即规避价格波动风险和发现商品未来价格。但这两个功能的实现,光靠套期保值者是不可能的,必须有投机者参与,适度的投机活动在期货市场中的积极作用主要有以下四个方面:1.承担市场价格波动风险。有关资料表明,在套期保值交易中,大多数进行的是卖出套期保值。因此,如果没有投机者的参加,在期货商品买卖的总量上就不能平衡,更不用谈在不同价位上的平衡了。     

推出我国生猪期货品种的探讨

<正> 一、期货品种的上市条件 根据国外经验,期货品种上市一般要具备以下四个条件:①大宗商品,有大量的现货交易。②价格频繁波动。③品质容易划分。④耐储存。但随着期货市场的发展,期货市场价格发现功能充分发挥,有些期货品种推出仅仅是因为期货市场是一个高效率的市场,可以形成预期的、统一的、具有权威性的期货价格。在成熟的期货市场上,集中竞价形成的期货价格实质上是交易者对不同信息通过博弈形成趋同信息的度量,价格只不过是信息度量值之一,而整个期货交易并不涉及实物交割。例如CME推出的天气和降雪期货。即使是     

构建吉林省商品期货市场

期货市场是市场经济发展的必然产物。随着吉林省市场体系的建立和不断完善,建立商品期货市场、发展商品经济,引入期货交易方式已是大势所趋。一、构建吉林省期货市场首先要正确认识期货市场。期货市场是指标准期货合约的买卖场所。期货合约的内容和形式都是固定化、规范化的。交易双方和经纪人只可协商价格,而不可更改合约条款。其功能如下:1、风险的转移和扩散功能。价格波动带来的风险是商品生产者和经营者遇到的最为直接和明显的风险。商品的价格无论怎样变动都会给一部分生产者或经营者带来损失,而期货     

中国棕榈油期货价格发现效率变动——基于ECM模型的实证

大商所的棕榈油期货价格发现功能对棕榈油最大进口国的中国来说意义重大。文章回答了＂大商所棕榈油期货是否具有价格发现功能＂这一疑问。选择代表性强的合约为研究对象,采用ECM模型分三个阶段研究了不同时期我国棕榈油期货市场的价格发现效率。结果发现我国棕榈油期货市场正逐步走向成熟,目前已具备价格发现的功能并且价格发现有效率。     

我国亟需《期货法》

正目前,我国期货市场规模不断扩大,急需一部《期货法》规范、引导期货市场的发展。建立一个具有套期保值功能、价格发现功能、市场预测功能、能充分发挥市场决定作用、掌握定价权的期货市场体系对于发展多层次资本市场及深化金融体制     

异质信念、投机均衡与农产品期货定价*

农产品期货市场套利并不充分,交易者也不是完全理性的。本文假设农产品期货市场有限套利、交易者异质信念并遵循“经验法则”预期,构建了农产品期货投机均衡定价模型,并认为集中竞价规则下产生的农产品期货价格是由交易者的预期决定的;前期期货价格水平、现货价格和前期期货价格的变动趋势、不同类型交易者的比例结构及其预期模式共同影响农产品期货价格的形成与波动;基本分析法交易者占主导地位的农产品期货市场具有更高的套期保值与价格发现效率。针对中国七种主要农产品期货的实证结果显示,农产品期货投机均衡定价模型对解释中国农产品期货价格的形成与波动是有效的。这意味着在期货行情系统中实时披露现货价格信息,培育和引导交易者运用基本分析法预测期货价格走势,有助于提升农产品期货市场的效率。     

A frequency domain causality investigation between futures and spot prices of Indian commodity markets

This paper examines the direction, strength and extent of causal relationship between futures and spot prices of Indian commodity markets using frequency domain approach of Breitung and Candelon (2006). Frequency domain analysis offers an effective alternative tool by examining the causality in frequency domain, whereas in traditional econometric causality analysis tools focus only on the time domain. Daily futures and spot price series on eight commodities from the Indian commodity exchanges (MCX and NCDEX) were examined for the period 3rd January, 2008 to 31st December, 2012. The results of frequency domain analysis suggest that there is a strong uni-directional relationship from futures to spot in almost all the selected commodities. This indicates that futures market has a powerful price discovery function in all the selected commodities; which in turn indicates the efficiency of Indian commodity futures market.     

国内外铜期货市场的价格联系

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the time varying relationships between the Chinese copper futures market and its London counterparts. Rolling correlation and rolling Granger causality test show that with the development of the Shanghai copper futures markets, it has stronger connections with its London counterpart and it plays more and more important role in the price discovery process. There is a long run relationship between the Shanghai futures exchanges (SHFE) and London Metals exchanges (LME) copper futures prices. The influence of LME on SHFE is greater than that of SHFE on LME. The research will shed light on the openness of the Chinese copper commodity markets and on the nature of cross-market information transmission.      

中国棉花期货和现货市场的价格关系研究

期货市场和现货市场之间的价格发现功能一直是监管部门和投资者十分关心的问题。本文借助信息共享模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法,对中国棉花的期、现货市场间的价格关系进行实证研究,定量刻划了期、现货市场在价格发现中的作用。研究结果表明:棉花期、现货价格之间存在显著的双向引导关系;二者存在长期均衡关系;期、现货市场都扮演重要的价格发现角色,期货市场在价格发现中处于主导地位。     

Cointegration and price discovery in US corn cash and futures markets

Using prices from 182 cash markets from seven states and the Chicago Board of Trade futures, we investigate cointegration and price discovery for corn. Analysis based on cash–futures pairs reveals that cointegration holds for 52 cash markets and failures tend to happen farther away from futures delivery locations. Cash generally are as important as futures prices as information sources in the long run and cash to futures information flow is most likely in the short run. Contributions to price discovery also are measured quantitatively for cointegrated cases. Analysis based on state-level cash prices indicates bidirectional information flow between cash and futures prices under a bivariate model, and futures to cash information flow under the octavariate model with all cash and the futures series. Comparisons of the two models show that including local cash markets in a price relationship model highlights cointegration and the futures’ price discovery role and could benefit cash price forecasting. Finally, evidence of nonlinear causality is found.     

Information,Pricing and Efficiency in Cash and Futures Markets: The Case of Hogs

The price leadership roles among hog cash and futures markets are assessed to locate points of price discovery and to examine flows of information among these markets. Several years of data are analyzed using lead/lag causality analysis and strength of linear causality measures. Although significant instantaneous relationships exist among hog cash and futures markets, one-way causality tests indicate that generally the futures market dominates cash hog markets in the price discovery process.     

DYNAMICS BETWEEN NORTH AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN AGRICULTURAL FUTURES PRICES DURING TURMOIL AND FINANCIALIZATION

North American and European agricultural futures markets faced significant changes in recent years, i.e., the financialization which originated in the USA, the increase of futures trading in Europe and the recent price turmoils in international commodity markets. We analyse the long‐ and short‐run dynamics between North American and European agricultural futures prices during these institutional changes. The empirical results show that the US markets lead in terms of price transmissions and volatility spillovers. US markets, however, predominantly react to deviations from the long‐run equilibrium which indicates a rising impact of European agricultural markets on a global scale.     

中国农产品期货市场效率实证分析:1998-2002

本文旨在检验1998-2002年我国小麦和大豆期货市场效率并对农产品期货市场和现货市场做出相应评估.通过采纳Johansen协整检验方法,论文针对三种不同的现货价格以及预测跨度从1周到6个月不等的期货价格进行了正式统计检验.结果表明,我国大豆期货价格与现货价格之间存在长期均衡关系,大豆期货市场的短期效率相对较高.小麦期货市场缺乏效率,这可能应当归因于期货市场发展尚不成熟以及投机过度.     

Price discovery and volatility spillover in spot and futures markets: evidences from steel-related commodities in China

The price discovery and spillover effect are significant indicators in futures markets. This study examines the price discovery and spillover effects using vector error correction model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic for seven types of steel products in Chinese spot and futures markets. The results show that the price discovery exists in all of steel futures market. It is also confirmed that futures prices in all items are mainly leading spot prices via permanent-transitory and information share. In the results of spillover effects, it is found that wire rod, coking coal, coke and silico-manganese have the effects between spot and futures market. In rebar market, there is the spillover effect from spot to futures. This information about futures prices can help the market participants to make decisions when they predict the spot prices.