我国农业保险经营模式的探讨——国内外农业保险模式的经验和借鉴

我国目前的保险业正经历着快速发展阶段,而农业保险这几年却持续萎缩,这与我国农业保险经营模式不无关系。本文从我国农业保险经营现状出发,总结了我国不同地区经营模式的试点情况,并结合世界各国农业保险经营模式的实践和经验,提出建立适合我国的农业保险经营模式对策。     

我国农业保险发展现状带来的思考

农业保险对于农业大国来说,是农业风险分散的重要工具。本文通过我国农业保险发展历史回顾,对我国农业保险发展现状进行思考和研究,指出农业保险立法、强化农业保险认识等应成为我国农业保险发展的路径选择,是农业保险可持续发展的出路。     

我国农业保险发展现状带来的思考

农业保险对于农业大国来说,是农业风险分散的重要工具.本文通过我国农业保险发展历史回顾,对我国农业保险发展现状进行思考和研究,指出农业保险立法、强化农业保险认识等应成为我国农业保险发展的路径选择,是农业保险可持续发展的出路.     

对我国农业保险若干问题的探讨

农业保险如何开展是一个世界性的课题。在我国,近年来随着“三农”问题的突出,农业保险业务逐渐受到人们的高度重视。以此为契机,我国农业保险将进入一个全新的发展阶段。但是根据我国农业保险发展的客观环境和实际情况,农业保险市场也还存在诸多问题,本文从制度模式选择、保险基金积累、生态环境建设等方面对此进行了讨论。     

新农村建设亟待农业保险体系更新

社会主义新农村建设是“十一五”期间的重大历史任务,而新农村建设亟待破解金融问题。其中,开创发展我国农业保险的新路子,是理论上和应用上非常迫切的问题。我国农业保险的发展经历了一条艰难探索之路,取得了一些成果。但是,农业保险在业务自身方面、经营主体方面、农业生产者方面及外部环境方面还存在一些问题。针对这些问题,顺应新农村建设要求,应从促进农民增收、稳步发展多形式农业保险、加强政府支持力度、创新体制及建立并完善农业保险法律法规等几个方面对农业保险体系进行改进。     

中国农业保险的出路探索

近年来,我国农业保险的发展陷入不断萎缩的被动局面,这与农业生产经营主体对农业保险日益增长的需求形成了鲜明的反差.本文分析了我国农业保险的发展现状和存在问题,通过对国外农业保险发展道路的比较和借鉴,提出了几种农业保险发展模式并分析了各模式的可行性,从而得出适合我国国情的农业保险发展模式.     

农业保险的发展情况及政策建议——以辽宁省为例

农业保险对于提高农业防灾减灾能力,促进农业和农村经济社会的发展具有重要作用,但在其发展过程中,也面临品种单一、覆盖率较低、农民投保积极性不高等问题。本文对辽宁省农业保险发展历程进行回顾,总结农业保险发展过程中存在的问题及主要特征,并结合实际提出相关政策建议。辽宁省农业保险发展情况2004年至今,辽宁省农业保险工作经历了三个阶段。从2004年至2007年,辽宁省各市开始农业保险初步摸索阶段,其中辽阳市农业保险开展较好,保险险种主要集中在本市农民创     

政策性农业保险的实践探索

政策性农业保险政府通过各种扶持政策为稳定国民经济而实施的一种国家政策,农业保险是防范农业风险的重要手段,对农业和农村经济、乃至对整个社会的和谐和稳定发展都有重要意义,由于各地的农业经营模式不同,经济条件和经济发展阶段不同,政策性农业保险应该如何实施,如何选择适合我国政策性农业保险发展的制度模式等,都是各级政府和保险界十分关注的问题。     

关于完善我国农业保险制度的思考

农业保险是世界各国普遍采用的管理农业风险、降低农业生产不确定性的重要措施。农业保险市场失灵现象在世界各国普遍存在。本文从农业保险的特点和主要类型出发,概述了全球农业保险的发展态势和典型经验,以及我国农业保险的发展概况,结合农业保险研究进展对我国农业保险发展存在问题和挑战进行讨论。为建立多层次农业保险体系,应当明确界定我国农业保险的目标,厘清与宏观经济目标的区别,制定农业保险发展的长期战略性规划;注重农业保险创新的科学性、有效性验证,避免农业保险创新催生新的风险;改革农业保险核损的组织形式,提高农户分散经营背景下的农业保险经营效率;加强微观层面的研究,切实提升农业保险需求;深入全面地研究政府支持农业保险的效率和效果,动态调整支持力度,丰富支持农业保险的方式。     

论政府在农业巨灾保险体系中的角色定位

农业巨灾保险的公共产品特性以及我国所处的经济发展阶段决定了政府在构建农业巨灾保险体系中的主导地位,但由于政府的缺位,使得我国的保险法规、保险机构、财政支持和救助方式等方面与农业巨灾保险体系建设的要求相差甚远,农业巨灾保险体系亟待完善。为了加快我国的农业巨灾保险体系建设,政府需要在法律制定、资金保障、保险市场拓展、运作模式、辅助风险控制等方面做出积极的努力。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.