资本监管与银行风险:基于联立方程模型的实证分析

本文采用联立方程模型,利用我国36家商业银行的270份面板数据样本对我国商业银行资本监管、银行资本以及风险之间的关系进行了实证分析.结果表明:在资本监管下,商业银行会同时考虑其资本与风险的变化;监管压力总体而言会显著地降低银行的风险,但对上市银行风险的影响并不明显,而监管压力对银行资本产生影响并不显著.     

银行资本监管与商业银行风险——对中国13家商业银行的实证研究

通过构建模型对2000～2005年我国商业银行风险与资本充足率变化进行实证检验，结果表明，我国实施银行资本监管能够促使已达到最低监管要求的银行提高资本充足率和降低银行风险，但对于达不到监管要求的银行，实施银行资本监管并不能促使其提高资本充足率和降低风险水平。实施银行资本监管不是我国商业银行风险降低的原因，资本监管在市场化程度较高的银行中会失效。市场及投资者并不因为银行资本充足率变化而对上市银行的收益或价值的评价产生变化。改革我国商业银行产权制度、建立显性的存款保险制度、加强市场约束是我国商业银行降低风险、提高资本监管有效性的基础。     

银行资本监管与商业银行风险——对中国13家商业银行的实证研究

通过构建模型对2000～2005年我国商业银行风险与资本充足率变化进行实证检验,结果表明,我国实施银行资本监管能够促使已达到最低监管要求的银行提高资本充足率和降低银行风险,但对于达不到监管要求的银行,实施银行资本监管并不能促使其提高资本充足率和降低风险水平.实施银行资本监管不是我国商业银行风险降低的原因,资本监管在市场化程度较高的银行中会失效.市场及投资者并不因为银行资本充足率变化而对上市银行的收益或价值的评价产生变化.改革我国商业银行产权制度、建立显性的存款保险制度、加强市场约束是我国商业银行降低风险、提高资本监管有效性的基础.     

商业银行资本与风险承担行为研究——基于资本监管的视角

通过对比16家上市商业银行2004—2014年资本监管新标准颁布前后的数据,研究资本监管对商业银行资本与风险承担行为产生的动态影响。分析的结果表明:在实施资本监管新标准之前,资本监管对资本不足和资本缓存不足的银行提高资本充足水平产生了积极的影响,且这种积极影响在实施资本监管新标准之后持续发挥作用。而资本缓存充足的银行在实施新政策之前倾向于投资高风险资产,但在实施新政策之后为了向监管机构展示其良好的经营状况,会继续提高资本水平。资本约束对于降低银行资产风险水平的作用并不显著。     

商业银行资本与风险承担行为研究--基于资本监管的视角

通过对比16家上市商业银行2004—2014年资本监管新标准颁布前后的数据,研究资本监管对商业银行资本与风险承担行为产生的动态影响。分析的结果表明：在实施资本监管新标准之前,资本监管对资本不足和资本缓存不足的银行提高资本充足水平产生了积极的影响,且这种积极影响在实施资本监管新标准之后持续发挥作用。而资本缓存充足的银行在实施新政策之前倾向于投资高风险资产,但在实施新政策之后为了向监管机构展示其良好的经营状况,会继续提高资本水平。资本约束对于降低银行资产风险水平的作用并不显著。     

资本充足监管下的银行资本与风险调整行为

本文采用12家国内上市商业银行2004～2010年的数据,建立面板联立方程模型,运用GMM估计方法,研究中国资本监管新要求对商业银行资本与风险调整行为产生的影响。分析结果表明:资本监管新要求的实施对提高银行资本充足率水平的作用明显;中国银行业的资本充足率整体水平稳步上升,银行风险水平逐步下降,资本监管已初见成效。监管压力仍是银行提高资本充足率的主要动力,依靠国家保护无益于资本补充长效机制的建立;银行只有不断优化自身资产结构,满足风险管理需求,提高持续盈利能力,通过利润分配增加核心资本,才能有效解决未来资本缺口问题。     

资本充足率影响我国商业银行资产风险的实证研究

<正>一、引言作为巴塞尔系列协议以及各国监管当局的监管指标,对商业银行的资本充足率进行监管被认为能够约束商业银行的风险行为,增强其稳定水平。资本充足率越高,银行承担的风险越低。本文使用银行风险加权资产作为商业银行资产风险的度量     

董事高管责任保险、监管约束与上市银行风险承担

本文以2007—2016年A股上市银行为样本,从公司治理的角度出发,深入探讨了上市银行购买董事高管责任保险对其风险承担的影响以及政府监管约束的调节作用。研究发现:上市银行购买董责险会显著地增加其风险承担水平,但如果政府加强对上市银行的资本监管和流动性监管,这种促进效应将减弱。相比大型商业银行,这种现象在我国中小型商业银行更为突出。结论表明,在法律体系与诉讼制度尚未完善的资本市场中,董责险并没有激发更多的股东诉讼,反而使股东诉讼对管理层的监督惩罚效应下降,提高了上市银行的风险承担水平。     

资本约束、银行风险承担与经济资本——基于中国53家商业银行的经验研究北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文建立了一个资本约束加强与银行风险承担关系的理论模型,使用2009年至2013年我国53家商业银行的财务数据,研究资本约束对银行风险承担的门限效应,并对商业银行内部经济资本水平进行分析。研究发现,资本数量约束和资本质量约束对银行风险承担均存在门限效应。资本数量方面,资本充足率的门限值为11.95%。资本质量方面,核心资本占总资本比例的门限值为69.93%。当资本充足率和核心资本占比低于相应的门限值时,加强资本约束会降低银行风险承担,反之则会增加或不能显著影响银行风险承担。此外,不同类型商业银行对资本约束的敏感度存在明显差异。     

推动新资本协议实施 提升银行业风险管理水平

新资本协议反映了国际银行业风险管理的最新发展 风险管理的发展同时受到市场和监管当局两方面推动，这种互动作用在银行资本监管方面表现得尤为突出。1988年资本协议确立了一个非常重要的原则，即监管资本要求应当与银行风险挂钩，对风险不同的债权资产给予不同的风险权重，以此计算银行的资本要求。在当时情况下，1988年资本协议无疑对提高商业银行信用风险和市场风险管理能力具有划时代的意义。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

金融企业员工考核系统的设计

一、概述 为配合公司人事考核制度的贯彻执行,保证该制度执行过程中各项工作能够长期、高效、准确地完成,我们开发了公司员工考核系统,实现了人事考核工作中员工投票、考核统计、考核信息分析、报表生成等功能,减少了人事部门人员的手工操作,提高了考核工作的自动化程度.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.