估值上行 合理配置“复苏”资产

经济筑底回升的预期以及流动性的延续支持A股市场在2季度继续看高一线,但是估值的约束使得上行幅度较为有限。建议围绕经济回暖,配置"复苏"资产。     

高失业率拖累世界经济增长

<正>联合国贸易和发展会议于2011年1月发表题为《2011年世界经济形势和前景》的报告,报告认为,世界经济复苏继续失去动力,这将导致较弱的全球经济复苏。其中,失业率居高不下是全球经济面临的主要问题。     

外资投行:积极经济结构调整正在进行

<正>2015年,中国经济增速继续下滑,对于2016年经济走势,外行普遍认为,经济继续筑底的趋势不变,结构性调整仍会持续,并有望在2016年完成经济筑底,预计货币政策在2016年依然保持宽松。2015年,中国经济增速继续下滑,对于2016年经济走势,外行普遍认为,经济继续筑底的趋势不变,结构性调整仍会持续,并有望在2016年完成经济筑底,预计货币政策依然保持宽松。经济继续筑底近期多项经济数据出炉,巴克莱近日报告称,中国2015年11月数据表现普遍较预期为佳,工业产出(IP)按年增长6.2%,     

高失业率拖累世界经济增长

联合同贸易和发展会议于2011年1月发表题为《2011年世界经济形势和前景》的报告,报告认为,世界经济复苏继续失去动力,这将导致较弱的全球经济复苏。其中,失业率居高不下是全球经济面临的主要问题。报告预计,2011和2012年全球经济将温和增长,增长率3％～3．5％,如此慢的增长速度难以使在经济危机中失去工作的人们重新找到工作。     

群龙无首:2011全球经济最大风险

<正>许多机构和人士预计,2011年,美国经济将步入复苏的正轨;包括中国、俄罗斯、印度和巴西在内的"金砖四国"也将继续增长,世界经济似乎正在迈入一个平稳的未来。然而,总部设在美国纽约的国际风险咨询机构欧亚集团却如此评说:最大的风险是世界将进入G-0的年代,没有一个国家或是一     

2012年世界经济形势展望

欧债危机的解决前景并不乐观,其演变仍将是影响世界经济持续复苏的主要风险点;全球通货膨胀压力仍然存在,新兴市场面临资本外逃风险一、世界经济将继续呈现缓慢增长态势,部分国家可能陷入衰退随着世界经济复苏步伐放缓,国际货币基金组织在2011年9月已将2011、2012两年世界经济增速预测分别下调至4.0%,世界贸易组织在201年11月的预测中也将2011年全球出口增长预期从6.5%下调至5.8%。从发     

逢低买入 中线看多

政策偏正面，有助市场上行 对于宏观方面目前市场关注包括三个问题：其一是国内经济何时完成筑底；其二，国内保增长的政策力度；其三，外围市场，包括欧洲危机，美国经济等的影响。根据OECD发布的全球经济先行指标，全球主要经济体已经在一季度出现同比增速的反弹。过去20年的统计经验显示，该指标是中国出口同比增速的完美领先指标，这意...     

数字经济

52.9％ 2011年1月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为52．9％，环比降1％。该指数显示出当前经济增长态势基本平稳，但通胀压力有所反弹。预计2月份PMI将继续下滑，但仍处扩张状态，3月将再回暖上行。     

国际财经

正世行三年来首次上调全球增长预期世界银行当地时间1月14日发布最新一期《全球经济展望》报告,三年来首次上调全球经济增长预期。世行表示,在发达经济体的复苏和发展中国家经济继续上行的带动下,世界经济今年预计将逐步走强,但其将今年中国经济增速预测从此前的8%下调至7.7%。世行在报告中估十,     

理财微语

官方微博:http://weibo.com/dzlcgw01【四问中国经济走势】1.经济增速将继续"下台阶"?答:预计未来几个季度经济增速将在7%左右。2.房地产调整格局仍将持续?答:今年房地产市场的调整可能比2014年相对温和,或成为"筑底"年份。3.全面通缩言过其实吗?答:判断为时尚早。4.降息降准势在必行?答:降准空间不大。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.