金融业增加值与高质量金融发展关系研究——基于国际比较视角

金融业增加值占GDP比重受资源禀赋、经济发展模式、经济结构、发展阶段、金融制度等多重因素影响。通过对新兴市场国家和OECD国家(地区)金融业增加值占GDP比重进行国际比较发现,与新兴市场国家和OECD国家相比,中国金融业增加值占比存在明显波动,2010~2015年进入快速上升期,2015年中国金融业增加值占比明显偏高。但中国金融业增加值的质量并不高,金融业效率较低。今后应通过穿透式监管,打掉我国金融市场中过多的中间融资环节,让金融更好地服务于实体经济,控制金融业增加值占比,提高金融业发展的质量和效率。     

新兴市场国家金融危机预警研究——基于Logit模型的实证检验

当前部分新兴市场国家的金融风险引起国际社会高度警惕,有必要研究建立适用于新兴市场国家的金融危机预警模型,以更有效地应对金融风险.印度是典型的新兴市场国家,且在经济金融领域和中国有较多相似性,研究印度金融危机预警,对新兴市场国家尤其是中国防范金融风险具有重要意义.文章基于印度数据构建了货币危机预警模型,对货币危机的影响因素进行实证分析,并结合当前宏观数据,利用模型预测印度在未来若干年内发生货币危机的概率.Logit模型分析表明,净储蓄/GDP下降、人均GDP下降、外债/GDP升高、出口/GDP下降,会导致印度货币危机发生的概率增加.进一步利用Logit模型预测表明印度从2020年起货币危机发生的概率将逐年上升.尽管如此,若应对措施及时有效,货币危机引发金融危机爆发的可能性依然较小.     

从投资比重上升看经济增长质量

本文利用数理模型分析了在不同投资时滞下,投资比重(固定资产投资占GDP比例)与经济增长率、资本产出比、资本折旧率之间的关系。定量分析表明,近年来我国的投资比重持续上升,或者是由于投资时滞增大、或者是由于资本产出比上升所引起,这反映了投资效率和经济增长质量在下降。     

我国财政科技支出存在的问题与对策建议

一是财政科技支出虽然在绝对量上增长迅速,但是相对量增长不足,财政科技支出占国家财政总支出的比重不高且增长缓慢,同时财政科技支出占GDP比重较低,这与我国建立创新型国家的战略和未来经济发展不相符合。二是R&D经费支出中政府支出所占比例仅为25%左右,相对于经济发展阶段而言,当前我国R&D经     

公司税制与国际竞争

一、引言尽管降低税率能吸引更多投资尤其是国际投资,但许多国家却依然对公司所得课以重税,这确实是一个让人费解的事实。自1980年以来,全球国际直接投资量急剧增长,国家通过降低公司税吸引大量新兴投资的能力不断增加。然而,有证据表明,征收的公司税额与GDP、政府收入、潜在经济活动或政府需求等其他指标却保持着相对稳定的比例。     

日企海外扩张经验对我国企业国际化的启示

早在2000年,我国政府就提出实施“走出去”战略。多年来,在政府和涉外企业的共同努力下,对外投资领域取得较大发展。截至2006年底,我国累计对外直接投资（非金融类）达到733．3亿美元,遍及160多个国家和地区,其中2006年一年就达到161亿美元。据联合国贸发会议数据,2006年我国对外投资居世界第18位,成为增长最快的新兴对外直接投资国。但是,我们和发达国家甚至其他发展中国家的差距依然很大。就对外直接投资存量而言,从全球平均水平看,从1988年到2005年,对外直接投资外向存量占GDP比重呈显著上升趋势,从7．14％到23．89％,其中,发达国家从7．85％上升到27．88％,发展中国家从3．70％上升到12．48％,而中国从0．73％上升到2．08％,     

全球经济治理:核心问题与治理进展北大核心CSSCISSCI

在现代通信物流技术的影响下,物质生产的全球化程度进一步深化,这种变化也伴随着一些国家和地区经济的快速发展及其经济规模的迅速扩大。作为新兴经济体的代表．“金砖国家”以市场汇率计算的GDP占全球GDP的比重已从2008年的15％上升为2014年的22％左右。根据国际货币基金组织（1MF）的预测．2015年该比重将上升至23％。     

我国投资消费关系的变动特点及发展趋势

改革开放以来,我国内需总体上保持了较快增长。其中,消费占内需的比重波动下降,投资所占比重则波动上升,总储蓄占GDP的比重稳定上升,投资和消费失衡问题日趋严重。根据国内外的发展经验,并考虑所处的发展阶段,我国较好的投资与消费比例关系是：投资率一般不应高于40％,消费率不应低于60％。预计到2020年我国投资率可能降到35％以下,消费率可能上升到60％以上。     

家庭部门债务、经济增长与金融稳定

基于135个国家和地区1960年至2016年的跨国数据,探究了家庭部门债务变动对经济体未来经济增长和金融稳定的影响。在此基础上,进一步分析了发展中国家和发达国家家庭部门债务变动对经济增长和金融稳定的作用效果是否存在差异。研究发现,总体上,前期家庭部门债务扩张行为会导致未来经济增速放缓,同时加剧金融不稳定程度,加大金融危机发生的可能性。对于发展中国家和发达国家而言,上述结论均成立,但发达国家家庭部门债务扩张对金融稳定的负面影响更大。政府和宏观监管部门应当采取适当的干预政策,做好事前风险防范,防止家庭部门债务扩张行为引发的不良经济后果。     

新兴市场国家金融自由化与金融脆弱性

金融自由化能够促进金融发展 ,从而促进经济增长 ;但是金融自由化同时也加剧了金融的脆弱 ,从而促使经济衰退 ,甚至引发金融危机。发达国家由于各种制度比较完善 ,在危机爆发的时候受到的冲击较小 ,而新兴市场国家在许多方面存在诸多不稳定因素 ,因而受到的冲击较大。文章在前人理论的基础上侧重从金融自由化与金融脆弱性的背景、定义以及金融自由化与金融脆弱性进行一般理论性探讨 ,从而揭示两者之间的关系。     

如何有效削减政府债务：保增长、调结构与稳金融

本文基于41个国家2001-2011年的动态面板数据,采用系统GMM估计研究了经济增长、产业结构升级和金融稳定对政府债务的影响。实证结果表明：经济增长和产业结构升级均有助于政府债务削减,且产业结构升级的作用要大于经济增长;与此同时,金融波动不仅对政府债务削减不利,还会通过边际效应削弱经济增长和产业结构升级在政府债务削减中的积极作用。上述结论意味着,在实践中,为有效削减政府债务,必须在确保金融稳定的前提下,坚持“保增长”和“调结构”双措并举,特别是充分发挥产业结构调整的积极作用,实现金融稳定和结构优化的经济增长。     

External Debt and Growth in Emerging Economies

The paper studies the relationship between external debt and economic growth in a panel of emerging countries. A number of economists have proposed different methods of analysing the nexus between economic growth and public debt. The paper investigates the debt-growth nexus using a linear and non-linear specification, employing a panel ARDL model on 13 emerging countries during the period 1990–2016. The results show that there is no robust effect of debt on economic growth in the long run; however in the short run, external debt is negatively and significantly correlated to economic growth.     

The long-term consequences of external debt: Revisiting the evidence and inspecting the mechanism using panel VARs

We estimate a panel vector autoregression model to examine the relationship between external debt and economic growth. We use a large dataset based on 123 countries, classified according to income levels over the period 1990–2015. While total external debt appears to have a negative effect on growth rate overall, it is positively associated with income growth in the lower- and upper-middle income countries. Further disaggregating external debt into its components reveals that public external debt negatively affects economic growth across all income categories of countries, whereas the impact of private external debt is not statistically significant. We do not detect a common threshold level in the relationship between public debt and economic growth across countries. Savings and investment are the primary channels through which external debt impacts economic growth. These results are robust to various model specifications, additional controls, and identifying restrictions.     

1981-2002年间国际金融组织贷款对中国经济增长的贡献研究

改革开放以来,国际金融组织贷款一直是我国对外借款的重要来源,其所占比例始终维持在40%左右,累计金额已达数百亿美元.这些贷款对中国经济增长的影响如何,这方面的研究十分少见.本文以柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的派生模型为基础建立了修正模型,分别利用1978年以来的国家和省级两层数据,对上述问题作了一个尝试性的评价.我们的计量分析结果表明,在1990年前后,国际金融组织贷款对中国经济增长的贡献存在差异.对不同地区的增长贡献也差异较大,表明不同的政策环境与援助性贷款的相互作用结果是不同的.     

金融发展与内生经济波动

开放经济中,金融发展在促进经济增长的同时,也把影响经济波动的国际因素传导到了国内。而这种负面影响在金融发展理论中却被忽略了,正因为如此,许多发展中国家出现了超越其经济发展水平的“过度金融发展”问题。金融深化可以促进金融市场发展和金融中介机构的发展,通过资产组合、财富效应、国际资本借贷把国外影响经济波动的效应传导至国内;另外,金融发展还可通过促进国际贸易的发展而传导外部影响。对样本国家进行分析的结果证实金融发展的确导致经济波动内生化。     

Financial market development and trade openness: evidence from emerging economies

International trade is said to be the engine of economic growth. Despite an enormous effort to explain this phenomenon, the relationship between financial market development and trade openness and integration into the world economy is still an enigma. This article investigates the relationship between financial market development and trade openness. To do this, we develop a long-run and short-run model (a bounds testing approach to cointegration) for 18 emerging economies over the period 1980 to 2011. Estimates from all models show that financial market development, including both the stock market and the banking sector, has significant effect on trade openness in both short-run and long-run phenomena in the majority of countries. Despite many similarities among emerging economies, additional evidence suggests that the link between either stock market development or banking sector development with trade openness works via each country’s specific structure.     

Withstanding financial crises: would trade partners help or hurt?

This article provides new empirical evidence on the losses of real activity caused by various financial shocks. Spillover effects due to foreign trade linkages deserve special attention. To this end, we estimate a modify auto-regressive process and a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations estimator is used to account for the dependency of one’s country growth on its trade-weighted partners growth. We run estimations on a set of currency collapses, banking crises and sovereign defaults in 49 advanced and developing countries from 1978 to 2011. The trade-weighted foreign demand effect mitigated the economic downturn following a banking or a sovereign debt crisis in all countries, while only the advanced ones benefited from it after a currency collapse. Trade-based spillover effects make banking crises more costly in the developing countries, in those that liberalize their financial account. It contrasts with what is observed during currency or sovereign debt crises.     

Why Crisis Continue?——The Endogenous Reason of Financial Crisis and Evolution to the Debt Crisis and the Enlightenment

当前欧债危机越演越烈,需要重新思考金融危机爆发并且演化为主权债务危机的内生性根源.此次金融危机中,资本主义社会的基本矛盾是危机发生的制度性根源.这一矛盾外化为“相对过剩”.经济机制层面,新自由主义影响下的自由市场经济体制放大了市场经济固有的缺陷,为危机的爆发积累了机制性原因.微观市场层面,缺乏金融监管、不当的房地产和货币政策则是诱发危机的直接原因.高赤字和高负债的背景下,一些国内经济和社会矛盾突出的国家发生主权债务危机是金融危机深化的必然结果.处理好自由市场经济和规制市场经济、金融创新和金融监管、实体经济和虚拟经济的关系以及地方债务问题是此次金融和债务危机给我国的最大启示.     

Finance–Growth Nexus and the P‐bias: Evidence from OECD Countries

Recent studies provide new empirical evidence confirming that financial development is linked to economic growth in OECD countries. Using new dynamic panel regression techniques, these appraisals indicate that within the group of high‐income countries stock market size as a measure of financial advancement contributes significantly to overall economic activity. Applying the same advanced techniques, this paper questions this conclusion by showing that the findings of these studies seem to be not only not robust with respect to adding new observations but also likely to be plagued by a severe price bias which belittles the information content of the used financial indicator (stock market capitalization). We provide evidence that anticipative price effects (i.e. expectations of future growth, reflected in current stock prices) may be driving the statistical relationship between stock market activities and economic growth in high‐income countries to a much larger extent than recent analyses of the finance– growth link in OECD countries suggest .     

The effects of fragility and financial inequalities on inclusive growth in African countries

Africa has the largest number and proportion of fragile states in the world. Fragile states are characterized by slower economic growth, higher incidences of poverty, and persistent inequality. Thus, there is a circular relationship between fragility, inequality, and slow economic growth. This study examines the relationship between fragility, financial inequalities, and inclusive growth in African countries. We introduce a novel way of examining inclusive growth in African countries by developing a unified measure of inclusive growth that captures the two dimensions of inclusive growth: income growth and income distribution. This enables us to adequately assess not just increased opportunities arising from economic growth, but also see how those new opportunities are distributed across all segments of the population. We captured the fragile status of African countries by using an index of fragility. We measured financial inequalities using new data on financial inclusion. The data analysis suggested negative relationships between fragility and inclusive growth in African countries. In addition, the results suggest positive relationships between financial inclusion and inclusive growth. Thus, inclusive growth can be fostered through policies that reduce financial inequalities. Therefore, a less fragile environment is conducive to inclusive growth both directly and indirectly through financial inclusion.