农村劳动力转移的二元经济内生增长模型

通过引入城乡劳动力转移的二元经济结构，吸收内生增长理论的思想，本文提出一个农村劳动力转移的二元经济内生增长模型。在此基础上对中国的经济增长从二元经济结构转换的角度进行了分析。本文认为，加大对农业的投入和加快资本积累是推动农村劳动力转移、实现二元经济结构转换和经济持续增长的关键；在中国工业部门技术进步有限的情况下，通过促进农村劳动力向工业部门转移可以推动中国经济的持续增长。     

中国经济复苏趋势尚未稳定

在经济刺激政策的推动下和库存剧烈调整基本结束后，我国经济增长有望继续好转，最困难的时期基本过去，但经济内生的增长动力非常脆弱，经济实现持续增长的困难较大     

2003年广西经济走势预测及对策建议/广西区政府发展研究中心经济形势分析课题组

2002年以来，在国家实行扩大内需方针和实施西部大开发战略的强有力的支持下，我区抓住了入世、西部大开发和世界经济温和复苏的有利契机，我区宏观经济出现了稳定持续增长的好势头，全年经济增长预期目标可以实现。同时，这将有利于2003年我区经济持续增长。...     

2003年广西经济走势预测及对策建议/广西区政府发展研究中心经济形势分析课题组

2002年以来，在国家实行扩大内需方针和实施西部大开发战略的强有力的支持下，我区抓住了入世、西部大开发和世界经济温和复苏的有利契机，我区宏观经济出现了稳定持续增长的好势头，全年经济增长预期目标可以实现。同时，这将有利于2003年我区经济持续增长。...……     

扩大内需是增强逊克“十一五”经济增长的内生动力

＂十一五＂期间扩大内需与加大投入为逊克县经济持续增长发挥了主导作用,实现消费和投资协调拉动,是逊克县转变经济增长方式、调整经济结构,实现经济社会可持续发展的必然选择。     

中国未来经济增长态势及其战略选择

2003年我国GDP增长率达到9．1％，GDP总量达到11．67万亿元，人均GDP已经突破1000美元。根据国际经验，我国经济已开始步入一个新的增长阶段，经济增长将表现出一系列新的特点，也意味着我国经济发展进入了一个重大的战略调整期和关键的战略起飞期。文章认为目前中国经济增长已步入一个新的时代，呈现出五大显著特征，并且已进入新一轮的经济长波上升阶段；评述了国内外若干著名研究机构和学者关于中国未来10～20年经济增长态势的分析和预测；提出促进中国未来经济协调、快速、稳定和持续增长的四大基本战略，即“东西互动、协调增长”战略、“四极共轭、非均衡增长”战略、“内需拉动、稳定增长”战略和“统筹发展、持续增长”战略。     

广西农村金融深化与农业经济增长的关系研究

广西作为一个欠发达的西部农业大省,加快农业经济的可持续健康增长刻不容缓。农村金融作为现代农业经济的核心,加快农村金融改革,促进农业经济增长,对实现广西全区的经济发展具有举足轻重的作用。通过实证分析广西农村金融深化对农业经济增长具有正效应,农村金融深化能有效促进农业经济的增长。文章根据广西农村金融发展与农业经济的实际情况,提出农业经济增长的农村金融支持对策,促进广西农业经济稳定、持续增长。     

对加快经济增长方式 转变的认识

对加快经济增长方式转变的认识●鹿丽实现经济增长方式的转变是“九五”期间决定我国经济发展的全局性问题之一，是我国现代化建设进一步发展的迫切要求，也是振兴民族经济的必由之路。所谓经济增长方式的转变，是指生产要素的组合方式及其推动经济实现持续增长方式的转变...     

路通财来——江西经济快车道效益显现

自2002年到2005年上半年以来，江西经济连续以10％以上的速度持续增长，其中去年增速为11年来新高。江西高速公路建设的迅速发展，为实现江西经济高速增长提供了关键的支持。     

通货膨胀、失业率与经济增长互动关系分析

国家实施宏观调控政策的直接目的是追求物价稳定、就业充分以及社会经济持续增长，通过具体分析1978—2008年的相关经济增长数据可以得知我国表现的通货膨胀和经济增长呈现的是双向的格兰杰因果关系，这两个现象的正向增长并不会直接带动我国就业问题的有效解决，因此，要实现国民经济又好又快持续发展首先就应当转变当前不合理的经济发展模式，实现产业发展完善，就业机会充分、物价水平稳定持续发展。     

日本经济高速增长的政策软实力

战后长期的高速增长奠定了日本强大的经济硬实力地位难以动摇,而这种地位的获得主要源自于日本的经济政策。产业政策是日本战后促进经济恢复最重要的政策,也是实现经济高速增长最成功的政策;兴建基础设施的政策扩大了日本国内市场,保证了经济高速增长的后劲和长期化;高速增长计划和目标,对于引导和指导日本经济发展发挥了重要的作用;高投资和高出口政策,加快了经济的发展速度;金融财政政策则成为高速增长的保障。这些政策产生力量效果,实现了经济高速增长,人民生活水平快速提高,提升了日本经济的国际竞争力,创造了经济高速增长模式。政策软实力发挥的原因包括,政府引导,政策相互配合,切合实际,长期坚持,目标单一等因素。     

Rethinking Fast Growth in China＇s Foreign Exchange Reserves

I. Introduction Since 2000, China’s foreign exchange reserves have been growing fast. By the end of 2001, China’s foreign exchange reserves had exceeded US$200bn and by the end of 2002 had reached US$286.4bn. By the end of 2003, it had reached US$403.3bn and in 2004 it reached US$609.9bn. In 1999, China’s foreign exchange reserves accounted for 15.6 percent of its GDP. The ratio has been growing continually and was 36.88 percent of GDP by 2004 (see Table 1), making China the second…     

Is the Chinese growth miracle built to last?

Is the Chinese growth miracle – a remarkably high growth rate sustained for over two decades – likely to persist or are the seeds of its eventual demise contained in the policies that have boosted growth? For all its presumed flaws, the particular approach to macroeconomic and structural policies that has been adopted by the Chinese government has helped to deliver high productivity and output growth, along with a reasonable degree of macroeconomic stability. There comes a point, however, when the policy distortions needed to maintain this approach could generate imbalances, impose potentially large welfare costs, and themselves become a source of instability.The traditional risks faced by emerging market economies, especially those related to having an open capital account, do not loom large in the case of China. In the process of securing protection against external risks, however, Chinese policymakers may have increased the risks of internal instability. There are a number of factors that could trigger unfavorable economic dynamics that, even if they don't rise to the level of a crisis, could have serious adverse repercussions on growth and welfare. The flexibility and potency of macroeconomic tools to deal with such negative shocks is constrained by the panoply of policies that has supported growth so far.     

China's Economic Transition Syndrome

Following 30 years of high economic growth, China's economy is in the midst of a classic transition from an industrial to a post‐industrial economy. In this transition period, the mismatch between supply and demand is growing, while the country's economic growth engine is weakening. Stimulus policies have aimed to maintain the country's economic growth momentum but they have come at the price of sharply increased financial fragility and resource misallocation, both of which are harmful to economic growth. China's “economic transition syndrome” refers to the vicious cycle of slowing GDP growth, combined with increasing demand for stimulus policies, and increasing financial fragility and resource misallocation.     

How China Could Contribute to a Benign Global Rebalancing？

Our study shows that China could contribute to an orderly global rebalancing using a package of policies to stimulate its domestic consumption. These policies include a progressive appreciation of the RMB, fiscal stimulation by increasing expenditure on education, health care, social safety nets and poverty reduction, income policies to reduce inequality and to strengthen wage income, and reforms of the financial system to improve financial efficiency and to mitigate financial constraints. By implementing such policies, China＇ s external surplus could be narrowed and its domestic imbalances improved. The excessively high savings rate could be lowered and the share of household consumption increased, even though GDP growth would moderate slightly.     

中国经济发展态势预测:基于国际环境与国内条件

2010年中国经济的外部环境不会有大幅度好转,在不同调控政策和外部发展环境的组合情景下,2010年中国经济增长存在二次探底、平稳较快增长和高速增长等多种前景。不同政策组合可能会导致GDP增速呈现6.9%~10.6%的大幅度变化。2010年全年物价涨幅可控制在3%以内,但2010年第四季度当季可能出现严重通货膨胀现象。要实现经济增长9%左右的理想状态,需要保持宏观调控政策力度的稳定性,优化财政支出结构。     

信贷差异、内需扩张与通胀变化的关联度

实施应对金融危机的一揽子措施以来,各口径货币总量对CPI的预测能力明显下降,CPI回升速度显著低于依据历史经验测算出的货币增长对物价形成的压力。这一现象主要与货币供给结构变化有关。从信贷增长与内需在GDP增长中贡献度的关系来看,扩张性政策导致的信贷高增长并未明显超出内需扩张之所需,加之经济增长也并未超出其潜在水平,因此短期内没有产生明显的CPI通胀压力,但经济回升和货币信贷增长推升了通胀预期。鉴于通胀机理所发生的变化,宏观政策需要更多关注更广泛意义上的整体价格水平稳定,更多关注预期和环比数据变化以提高调控的前瞻性和有效性,同时要加强宏观审慎管理,多运用市场化和有弹性的政策工具实施调控。     

一个"农业大国"的反贫困之战——中国农村扶贫政策分析

中国作为一个农业人口占多数的发展中大国,农村贫困人口的快速下降为世界范围内的贫困人口的降低做出了重要贡献,然而,这并不能简单的归结为中国农村扶贫政策取得成功。我们综合分析了中国政府农村扶贫政策的得与失,并总结认为:中国农村贫困的减少更多的来自于持续快速的经济增长。虽然经历了三十年的改革开放,中国的农村贫困人口已经大大减少,但是,这并不表明剩余的几千万贫困人口会逐步自动的消失,对于这些剩余的贫困人口,政府还要采取综合措施并以提高贫困家庭参与市场的程度为目标,从而使他们能够更快的融入到经济增长的轨道中去,而不能让他们被排除在市场化和城市化的边缘。     

Corporate innovation in China and its implications

China's current economic transition policies focus on shifting from export‐driven manufacturing towards high‐end, high‐tech research and development (R&D), and domestic consumption. Since the early 2000s the government has issued a series of policies and guidelines to encourage innovation. Both in‐house R&D investment and the number of patent grants/applications have seen considerable growth in recent years. More specifically, industry‐funded R&D was responsible for more than three quarters of total in‐house R&D investment. Despite the rapid growth in R&D expenditure and the number of patents, China's corporate innovation still faces many obstacles and challenges. To further stimulate corporate innovation, the government may need to create an environment of fair competition for domestic enterprises, encourage the growth of institutional investors and their active participation in corporate governance, and improve the efficiency of financial systems. The experience of China in promoting innovation provides policy approaches and implications from which other emerging economies can learn.     

Money growth and the employment aspirations of black Americans

Conclusion Irrespective of other economic initiatives in the area of fiscal and regulatory policies that may be required, there will not likely be an improvement in the employment situation for black Americans unless policy-makers gain a better handle on the conduct of monetary policy. The implication is that the welfare of black Americans tends to improve most when the economy is experiencing high and steady rates of economic growth. The single most important tool for achieving that growth is a highly stable rate of monetary growth that is roughly in line with the longterm growth of the economy.