The behavioral power of nations: an analysis of verbal conflict using the equations of statistical equilibrium

In this article, we define and explore the behavioral aspects of power. Power is conceptualized and measured as a characteristic of simultaneous influence relationships among nation-states, rather than as an attribute possessed by nation-states. An analytical definition of one nation-state's ability to produce behavior in other nation-states is developed. Using data on the behavioral interactions of contemporary nation-states, these ideas are examined empirically in a subset of fifty nation-states. Behavioral power is compared with various measures of power capabilities.Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any organizations or institutions.     

A review of statistical methods in the analysis of data arising from observer reliability studies (Part I)*

Summary This paper reviews research situations in medicine, epidemiology and psychiatry, in psychological measurement and testing, and in sample surveys in which the observer(rater or interviewer) can be an important source of measurement error. Moreover, most of the statistical literature in observer variability is surveyed with attention given to a notational unification of the various models proposed. In the continuous data case, the usual analysis of variance (ANOVA) components of variance models are presented with an emphasis on the intraclass correlation coefficient as a measure of reliability. Other modified ANOVA models, response error models in sample surveys, and related multivariate extensions are also discussed. For the categorical data case, special attention is given to measures of agreement and tests of hypotheses when the data consist of dichotomous responses. In addition, similarities between the dichotomous and continous cases are illustrated in terms of intraclass correlation coefficients. Finally, measures of agreement, such as kappa and weighted-kappa, are discussed in the context of nominal and ordinal data. A proposed unifying framework for the categorical data case is given in the form of concluding remarks.     

A statistical treatment of the problem of division

The problem of division is one of the most important problems in the emergence of probability. It has been long considered solved from a probabilistic viewpoint. However, we do not find the solution satisfactory. In this study, the problem is recasted as a statistical problem. The outcomes of matches of the game are considered as an infinitely exchangeable random sequence and predictors/estimators are constructed in light of de Finetti representation theorem. Bounds of the estimators are derived over wide classes of priors (mixing distributions). We find that, although conservative, the classical solutions are justifiable by our analysis while the plug-in estimates are too optimistic for the winning player.Acknowledgement. The authors would like to thank the referees for the insightful and informative suggestions and, particularly, for referring us to important references.Supported by NSC-88-2118-M-259-009.Supported in part by NSC 89-2118-M-259-012.Received August 2002     

档案利用数据统计与实际效益

当前在档案信息资源开发利用和信息反馈工作中存在的主要问题,严重影响了档案事业的健康发展。对此,文中指出了开发利用档案信息资源获得档案实际效益的基本做法,重点对档案利用数据统计与档案实际效益进行了探讨。     

Identification and estimation of statistical functionals using incomplete data

Incomplete data, due to missing observations or interval measurement of variables, usually cause parameters of interest in applications to be unidentified except under untestable and often controversial assumptions. However, it is often possible to identify sharp bounds on parameters without making untestable assumptions about the process through which data become incomplete. The bounds contain all logically possible values of the parameters and can be estimated consistently by replacing the population distribution of the data with the empirical distribution. This is straightforward in some circumstances but computationally burdensome in others. This paper describes the general problem and presents an empirical illustration.     

Aspects of statistical analysis in DEA-type frontier models

In Grosskopf (1995) and Banker (1995) different approaches and problems of statistical inference in DEA frontier models are presented. This paper focuses on the basic characteristics of DEA models from a statistical point of view. It arose from comments and discussions on both papers above. The framework of DEA models is deterministic (all the observed points lie on the same side of the frontier), nevertheless a stochastic model can be constructed once a data generating process is defined. So statistical analysis may be performed and sampling properties of DEA estimators can be established. However, practical statistical inference (such as test of hypothesis, confidence intervals) still needs artifacts like the bootstrap to be performed. A consistent bootstrap relies also on a clear definition of the data generating proces and on a consistent estimator of it: The approach of Simar and Wilson (1995) is described. Finally, some trails are proposed for introducing stochastic noise in DEA models, in the spirit of the Kneip-Simar (1995) approach.     

Distortion in statistical inference: the distinction between data contamination and model deviation

The present work develops a basic classification scheme for distortion in the framework of classical statistical inference. In particular, it emphasizes the still outstanding and consequent distinction between data contamination and model deviation. It is explored when different implications on the performance of statistical inference procedures under the two types of distortion are possible and how these can be detected. A critical review of some important approaches in the robustness and diagnostics literature finally indicates which of them is aimed at data contamination and which at model deviation (independently from what has been claimed originally). The paper raises awareness of the above problem through a constructive discussion – it is not meant to introduce new methodology     

Bridging macroeconomic data between statistical classifications: the count-seed RAS approach

ABSTRACT

In applications, it is often necessary to link heavily aggregated macroeconomic datasets adhering to different statistical classifications. We propose a simple data reclassification procedure for those cases in which a bridge matrix grounded in microdata is not available. The essential requirement of our approach, which we refer to as count-seed RAS, is that there exists a time period or a geographical entity similar to the one of interest for which the relevant economic variable is observed according to both classifications. From this information, a bridge matrix is constructed using bi-proportional methods to rescale a seed matrix based on a qualitative correspondence table from official sources. We test the procedure in two case studies and by Monte Carlo methods. We find that, in terms of reclassification accuracy, it performs noticeably better than other expeditious methods. The analytical framework underlying our approach may prove a useful way of conceptualizing data reclassification problems.     

Scoring functions for ordered classifications in statistical analysis

The problem of scoring ordered classifications prior to the further statistical analysis is discussed. A review of some methods of scoring is provided. This includes linear transformations of integer scores, where previous applications to two way classifications are introduced. Also reviewed are scores based on canonical correlations, maximum likelihood scores under assumed logistic distributions for variables, ridits, and conditional mean scoring functions. The latter are shown to satisfy a reasonable set of postulates, and demonstrates that some earlier attempts to do this were incomplete. Examples of the conditional mean scoring function under different distributional assumptions are given. Methods based on compounded functions of proportions for categorical data are applied to many of the scores reviewed and introduced. Appropriate algorithms for these methods are introduced and exemplified. Through the medium of a range of existing data sets the sensitivity of their results to differing scoring systems applied to two way classifications is examined. It is seen that apart from data arising from highly skewed distributions little is to be lost by using simple integer scores.     

The statistical analysis of overidentified linear recursive models

This paper examines identification and estimation in recursive linear models. After developing the main result on identification of recursive models, the paper considers estimation in models subject to overidentifying constraints. A particularly simple, but quite general and efficient, approach to estimating constrained recursive models is developed.     

Directional congestion in the framework of data envelopment analysis

This study first proposes a definition for directional congestion in certain input and output directions within the framework of data envelopment analysis. Second, two methods from different viewpoints are proposed to estimate the directional congestion. Third, we address the relationship between directional congestion and classic (strong or weak) congestion. Finally, we present a case study investigating the analysis performed by the research institutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences to demonstrate the applicability and usefulness of the methods developed in this study.     

Polyhedral Combinatorics in Combinatorial Optimization

Polyhedral combinatorics is a subarea of combinatorial optimization of increasing practical importance. It deals with the application of the theory of linear systems and linear algebra to combinatorial problems. The paper is not intended as a survey on polyhedral combinatorics but it reviews some of the main concepts and proof techniques.     

基于行为金融学原理的投资策略考察

行为金融学是对传统金融学理论的革命和对传统投资决策范式的修正。据此，应当把心理学和金融学问题结合起来，实现对投资行为的预测和改造，避免投资者对信息的过度反应或者反应不足的情况，从而找出适当的投资策略。     

A statistical and probabilistic analysis of popular lottery tickets

We investigate statistical and probabilistic aspects of a data set of 2588 lottery tickets purchased for the German 6/49 lottery drawing of 16.10.1993 in Baden–Württemberg. Roughly speaking, each of these combinations was chosen at least 50 times above average. 288 of these most popular tickets represent past winning numbers (or modifications thereof) from various lotteries. The vast majority of the remaining tickets is filled out from aesthetic points of view. In this respect, some new random variables are introduced and studied.     

Topics of statistical theory for register‐based statistics and data integration

Official statistics production based on a combination of data sources, including sample survey, census and administrative registers, is becoming more and more common. Reduction of response burden, gains of production cost efficiency as well as potentials for detailed spatial‐demographic and longitudinal statistics are some of the major advantages associated with the use of integrated statistical data. Data integration has always been an essential feature associated with the use of administrative register data. But survey and census data should also be integrated, so as to widen their scope and improve the quality. There are many new and difficult challenges here that are beyond the traditional topics of survey sampling and data integration. In this article we consider statistical theory for data integration on a conceptual level. In particular, we present a two‐phase life‐cycle model for integrated statistical microdata, which provides a framework for the various potential error sources, and outline some concepts and topics for quality assessment beyond the ideal of error‐free data. A shared understanding of these issues will hopefully help us to collocate and coordinate efforts in future research and development.     

Employee behavioral options in problematic working conditions: response pattern analysis

This study developed a decision tree framework to predict and distinguish employee responses to problematic working conditions. In this framework, job satisfaction and self-efficacy were antecedent variables; five responses from the modified EVLN typology were used as dependent variables. Data from 367 police officers in Taiwan were analyzed to examine the linear and quadratic relationships between job satisfaction and each of the five responses. The sample was further divided into six groups according to individual job satisfaction and self-efficacy. In each group, specific response patterns were analyzed through paired sample t-tests. The pattern analysis results partially supported the prediction of decision tree framework.