U.S. corporate bond returns: A study of market anomalies based on broad industry groups

We examine three major U.S. corporate bond market indices for calendar-based anomalies over the period 1982-2002. The analysis covers the entire corporate bond market and two broad industry classes: industrials and utilities. We find mixed support for the weekend effect in the overall bond index and the industrials index and to a lesser extent in the utilities index. We also show strong evidence of a January effect. This paper not only updates the study of corporate bond market anomalies through the period 2002 but also is the first examination based on broad industry classes.     

Short-term patterns in government bond returns following market shocks: International evidence

We employ government bond portfolios from 17 countries in order to investigate the short-run reaction of investors to price shocks. Our findings indicate a uniform return reversal pattern across countries, that persists irrespective of various robustness tests such as different datasets (Datastream/J.P. Morgan), different maturity bands, and day-of-the-week effects. Simulated trading strategies based on our results suggest that this pattern can be employed to generate economically significant profits for many country portfolios. We also demonstrate that significant zero-investment profits are possible even when instead of the expensive to replicate country bond portfolios we employ directly tradable and low transactions cost instruments, such as Bond Futures Contracts.     

Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly

This study investigates whether stock market returns are related to temperature. Research in psychology has shown that temperature significantly affects mood, and mood changes in turn cause behavioral changes. Evidence suggests that lower temperature can lead to aggression, while higher temperature can lead to both apathy and aggression. Aggression could result in more risk-taking while apathy could impede risk-taking. We therefore expect lower temperature to be related to higher stock returns and higher temperature to be related to higher or lower stock returns, depending on the trade-off between the two competing effects. We examine many stock markets world-wide and find a statistically significant, negative correlation between temperature and returns across the whole range of temperature. Apathy dominates aggression when temperature is high. The observed negative correlation is robust to alternative tests and retains its statistical significance after controlling for various known anomalies.     

The international transmission of interest rates: A note on causal relationships between short-term external and domestic U.S. dollar returns

This study extends the literature of capital market integration by investigating the relationship between U.S. dollar yield behavior in the domestic and in the external dollar market. Recognizing recent increases in world capital market speed of adjustment, the analysis is based on daily changes in yields. Using Granger causality tests, much of the adjustmemt appears to be contemporaneous if contemporaneous is defined as weekly (as opposed to daily) changes, and the Eurodollar market adjusts more rapidly and more completely to changes in the domestic market than the domestic market adjusts to changes in the Eurodollar market.     

The robustness of the Sarbanes Oxley effect on the U.S. capital market

We examine the incidence of new listings and delistings on U.S. stock exchanges and firms’ propensity to delist, as a function of general market conditions, firm fundamentals, and the costs of compliance with the Sarbanes Oxley Act (SOX). We find that both general market conditions and firm fundamentals explain the delisting incidence and firms’ delisting decisions; while SOX variables are positively associated with firms’ delisting likelihood only when general market conditions are not included in the analyses. Further analyses on the population partitioned into size quintiles suggest that the passage of SOX was not associated with an increase in the likelihood of delisting for any size quintile of firms and that the implementation of SOX section 404 is positively associated with the delisting likelihood for midsized and larger firms. Our empirical evidence is useful to regulators as they consider changes in the imposition and implementation of SOX section 404.     

A comprehensive investigation on the predictive power of economic policy uncertainty from non-U.S. countries for U.S. stock market returns

This study uses economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for ten developed countries, three diffusion models, and five combination methods to forecast excess returns in the U.S. stock market. It shows empirically that, over the period January 1997 to January 2022, non-U.S. EPU indices have better predictive power for U.S. equity market excess returns than the U.S. EPU index itself. This illustrates how economic information from international markets can affect the U.S. stock market. This finding challenges the extensively recognized view that the U.S. is where important market signals are initially transmitted to other markets, suggesting that this belief is incomplete. Our outcomes are robust to a battery of tests covering model selection, model specification, forecast horizons, and the pandemic period, and their economic values are assessed. The findings are essential for the financial field to confront future fierce situations and crises.     

The market value of U.S. government debt; Monthly, 1942–1980

The market value of outstanding United States Treasury debt is calculated on a monthly basis using price and par value data from the Treasury Bulletin. Separate series for Treasury Bills. Bonds, Certificates of Indebtedness, Notes and total Treasury debt are presented along with estimates of privately held Treasury debt and gross federal debt. The calculated market value series is compared to par value and an existing annual market value series.     

Macroeconomic announcement effects on the covariance structure of government bond returns

This paper concerns the effects of macroeconomic announcements on the covariance structure of US government bond returns for six different maturities; the study shows that the conditional variances, covariances, and correlation coefficients are significantly greater on announcement days. On non-announcement days, the correlation coefficients are relatively large and are greater the closer the bonds are with respect to the time to maturity. The maturity dependency is substantially dampened on announcement days and, hence, releases of macroeconomic news induce common movement in the government bond market that strengthen the correlations.     

On the distribution of government bond returns: evidence from the EMU

This paper assesses the statistical distribution of daily EMU bond returns for the period 1999–2012. The normality assumption is tested and clearly rejected for all European countries and maturities. Although skewness plays a minor role in this departure from normality, it is mainly due to the excess kurtosis of bond returns. Therefore, we test the Student’s t, skewed Student’s t, and stable distribution that exhibit this feature. The financial crisis leads to a structural break in the time series. We account for this and retest the alternative distributions. A value-at-risk application underlines the importance of our findings for investors. In sum, excess kurtosis in bond returns is essential for risk management, and the stable distribution captures this feature best.     

An empirical analysis of the day-of-the-week effect in stock returns: The case of U.S. and Japan

This article employs daily closing index data to investigate the relationship between the U.S. and Japanese equity markets. It reassesses and extends the Becker et al. (1990) methodology over a longer sample space. The article then advances the analysis further by estimating structural equation models and by including the exchange rate as an additional explanatory variable. The resulting multivariate econometric design shows that the U.S. equity market strongly affects the Japanese equity market Monday through Friday while the Japanese market exerts a weaker influence on the U.S. market with the influence observed only on Mondays and Wednesdays.     

The “reverse” weekend effect: the U.S. market versus international markets

In this paper we find that the “reverse” weekend effect—where average Monday returns tend to be positive—is a unique feature of the U.S. market. During the time the U.S. market exhibits the reverse weekend effect, foreign markets still show the “traditional” weekend effect or no effect at all. The results persist even after we sort the data by week of the month and month of the year. We also find that in foreign markets negative Monday returns tend to follow negative Friday returns. However, in the U.S. market, positive Monday returns tend to follow positive Friday returns.     

Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market

This paper provides a study of bond yield differentials among EU government bonds on the basis of a unique data set of issue spreads in the US and DM (Euro) bond market between 1993 and 2009. Interest differentials between bonds issued by EU countries and Germany or the USA contain risk premiums which increase with fiscal imbalances and depend negatively on the issuer’s relative bond market size. The start of the European Monetary Union has shifted market attention to deficit and debt service payments as key measures of fiscal soundness and eliminated liquidity premiums in the euro area. With the financial crisis, the cost of loose fiscal policy has increased considerably.     

Equity returns,bond returns,and the equity premium in the German capital market

This article reviews the empirical evidence for equity returns, bond returns, and the equity premium in the German capital market for the period from 1870 to 1995. Taken together, the studies reviewed provide convincing evidence that over longer investment periods, average equity returns have been higher than average bond returns. These excess returns, however, have been highly volatile and negative in many years, illustrating the higher risk of equity investments. Moreover, market timing had a major positive or negative impact on overall returns. Despite the historical evidence of a substantial equity premium there is still little equity investment by German households.     

The dynamics of U.S. REITs returns to uncertainty shocks: A proxy SVAR approach

This paper investigates the impact of uncertainty shocks on REITs returns over a monthly period from 1972:01 to 2015:12, and sub-samples from 1972:01 to 2009:06, and 2009:07 to 2015:12, to accommodate for the possible effects of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and unconventional monetary policy decisions. We use the recently-proposed variations in the price of gold, around events associated with unexpected changes in uncertainty as an instrument to identify uncertainty shocks in a proxy Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model. Moreover, to control for news-related effects associated with these events, uncertainty and news shocks are jointly identified based on a set-identified proxy SVAR, as recently suggested in the VAR literature. Our results show that the uncertainty shock generates a larger negative impact on REITs returns over the post-GFC period to the extent that it also outweighs the impact of the otherwise dominant news (productivity) shocks. In addition, the impulse response dynamics related to the recursively identified uncertainty shock, as is standard in the literature, resembles the effects of a news shock, and somewhat contrary to intuition suggests that the impact of the uncertainty shock on REITs returns were higher during the pre-GFC era.     

Primacy in stock market participation: the effect of initial returns on market re-entry decisions

We examine whether initial returns influence investors’ decisions to return to the stock market following withdrawal. Using a survival analysis technique to estimate Finnish retail investors’ likelihood of stock market re-entry reveals that investors who experience lower initial returns are less likely to return, even after controlling for returns in the last month and average monthly returns for the duration of investing. This primacy effect is robust to accounting for endogeneity in investors’ exit decisions, and other behavioural biases such as recency and saliency of investment experience. Individual investors appear to be subject to primacy bias and tend to put a significant weight on initial experiences in re-entry decisions.     

Discussion of “The robustness of the Sabarnes Oxley effect on the U.S. capital market”

In this paper, I use anecdotal evidence and logical reasoning to suggest that, despite the use of an extensive database, it is not possible to conclude that passage of the Sarbanes Oxley Act did not have an impact on companies’ delisting decisions. Moreover, the instrumental variables used to proxy for SOX effects are too weak and suffer from a significant endogeneity problem given that passage of SOX was driven by many of the economic and control problems that are used to control for market and company factors. I also discuss some broader issues about the trade-off between large sample statistical inference and anecdotal analysis for addressing practical questions.     

Seasonal variations in the U.S. Stock Market returns: 1927–1984

When the seasonal components of the monthly returns as opposed to the returns themselves, are examined over the 1927–1984 period, the Standard & Poor's 500 Composite Index (S&P 500) and the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) value-weighted portfolio exhibit significant seasonality. Their seasonal behavior is quite similar to that of the smallest quintile of New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stocks and the CRSP equally weighted portfolio during March through October. While January is strong for the two latter portfolios, December, November, and January appear to be consistently strong for the two former portfolios. The seasonal pattern has, however, changed substantially over time. While June and July returns experienced a significant drop in seasonal strength, March and April returns gained seasonal strength for all four portfolios from 1927–1958 to 1959–1984. These changes coincide in an inverse fashion with the shifts in interest rate seasonality.     

Foreign issuers in the U.S. PIPE market

We document that the use of private investment in public equity (PIPE) by foreign firms listed on U.S. exchanges is growing even faster than its use by U.S. firms. On average, foreign firm PIPE stock deals represent a similar proportion of the firm's market capitalization to U.S. firm PIPEs, but suffer less of a share price discount than U.S. firm PIPE issuances, a relation that is robust to consideration of exchange, deal size, share turnover and return volatility. We document that hedge funds are only small investors in foreign firm PIPEs issued in the U.S., which tend to be purchased by pensions, government funds and corporations. PIPE, in combination with the reverse merger method of going public, provides a cost-effective means for foreign firms to raise capital in the U.S. capital market.     

The role of bankers in the U.S. syndicated loan market

I construct a novel dataset of individual bankers in the U.S. syndicated loan market to analyze the impact of bankers for the largest, most transparent borrowers. Bankers exhibit time-invariant preferences for specific loan characteristics, or styles. In addition, exploiting within-borrower variation in personal relationship strength from banker turnover, I find that stronger relationships lead to significantly lower interest rates. This effect is stronger if borrowers lack a credit rating or issue less frequent and shorter horizon management reports. Relationship loans are associated with fewer bankruptcies and fewer favorable modifications in renegotiations.