Macroeconomic outcomes,collective bargaining and intersectoral productivity differentials: a panel approach

Using a sample of 19 advanced countries from 1990 to 2014 and an Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond linear dynamic GMM estimator along with a bootstrap-based bias correction fixed effects estimator for dynamic panels, the paper examines the macroeconomic impact of collective bargaining structures in a context of varying intersectoral heterogeneity in productivity growth among the exposed and sheltered sectors of the economy. Results show a dampening impact of pattern and centralized bargaining structures on unemployment. However, strong domestic demand is a key precondition for such a favourable effect to materialize. Uncoordinated and centralized bargaining structures are the most efficient in terms of labour cost restraint while industry bargaining moderates labour cost growth as intersectoral productivity differentials widen.     

Macroeconomic fluctuations and bargaining

I study the limit rule for bilateral bargaining when agents recognize that the aggregate economy (and thus the match surplus) follows a finite-state Poisson process. The rule derived in this paper is of special importance for decentralized exchange economies with bargaining. Two simple applications are presented to illustrate this fact. The first example is a model of wage bargaining and trade externalities. I show that in such situations sophisticated bargaining tends to increase the volatility of the wage bill. The second example is based on the Kiyotaki-Wright model of money. I explain how equilibrium prices depend in a fundamental way on the dynamic bargaining solution.     

Wage bargaining and shock sensitivity of a small open economy

This paper analyzes the effects of centralized bargaining over a nominal wage (indexation) rule on a small open economy with fixed exchange rates. It is shown that the relative bargaining power of the confederation of employers and the union, respectively, affects not only the level of the endogenous variables but also their reaction to exogenous disturbances. If the union's power exceeds a critical value, positive aggregate demand shocks increase unemployment since the actual nominal wage rises more than the market clearing one. Moreover, if the union's power is sufficiently close to its upper bound, the overreaction of wages becomes so large that positive aggregate demand shocks even lead to a decrease in output and employment, i.e., the multipliers become negative.     

Macroeconomic policy in an output-expenditure model

This paper proposes an alternative framework for examining the international macroeconomic impact of domestic monetary and fiscal policies and focuses on the distinction between national spending and national production and the reactive behavior of foreign investors to changing external account balances. It demonstrates that under a floating exchange rate regime, monetary and fiscal policies can affect aggregate expenditure and output quite differently, with important implications for the behavior of the exchange rate, the current account balance, and national income in the short run, as well as the economy's price level in the long run. In particular, this paper predicts that expansionary monetary and fiscal policies tend to depreciate the currency and only temporarily raise gross domestic product and the current account surplus, although permanently raise the domestic price level.This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Forty-Ninth International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 14–21, 2000, Munich, Germany.     

Saving,fertility and public policy in an overlapping generations small open economy

Motivated by the recent increase of public debt experienced by many developed countries, we develop an OLG model to provide the fiscal policies needed for any public debt level to be sustainable in steady state and the consequences that such policies produce on saving and fertility in a small open economy. Our main finding is that a reduction of public debt (an event currently publicly debated) needs tax adjustments that eventually will be detrimental for both fertility and saving under a low-interest-rate regime (possibly similar to the current world regime), with opposite transitional effects on fertility and saving. On the contrary, the needed fiscal adjustments will eventually increase saving and fertility under a high-interest-rate regime, with opposite transitional effects on fertility and saving. Besides providing clear-cut policy implications, our analysis offers possible testable implications concerning the pattern of fertility, taxes and public debt observed in many developed economies.     

Stabilization policy and indeterminacy in a small open economy

This paper studies the (de)stabilizing effects of income tax rules in a two-sector small open economy with production externalities. The paper shows that in the model with positive sector-specific externalities in the investment sector and negative sector-specific externalities in the consumption sector (or positive aggregate investment externalities), a regressive income tax rule can stabilize such an economy against indeterminacy, whereas a progressive income tax rule can increase the tendency for indeterminacy to occur. This paper also studies two variants that consider an imperfect world bond market and an endogenous labor supply, respectively, and shows that the qualitative results stated above remain valid. Moreover, increasing the level of sector-specific investment externalities can decrease (increase) the minimal level of tax progressivity required for indeterminacy if the investment externalities are below (above) a certain critical value and if the negative externalities in the consumption sector are taken as given.     

Fiscal policy in a small open economy with cross-border labor mobility

The large and stable inflow of workers’ remittances through formal financial channels to developing countries prompted authorities to harness fiscal resources from this flow. This paper develops a macro-dynamic model of a small open economy with cross-border labor mobility emphasizing fiscal policy. The flow of remittances is the result of a household’s optimizing decision to migrate. We examine the macroeconomic responses to fiscal policies. First, we show that an economy with international migration is more resilient to demand shocks resulting from fiscal contraction. Second, the short-run association between remittances and domestic output depends on the sources of the shocks. Third, our results indicate that the equilibrium impact of a tax on remittances can be expansionary and welfare-improving when an economy is initially close to full employment. The presence of utility-enhancing government expenditure and a potential negative externality from over-allocation of labor abroad (over migration) justify the presence of distortionary taxes.     

Child policy ineffectiveness in an overlapping generations small open economy with human capital accumulation and public education

Motivated by the recent decrease in the number of children experienced in several developed countries, in this paper we consider a small open economy model with overlapping generations, endogenous fertility and human capital formation through public education, and look at the role the government can play in affecting fertility through the widely used child allowance policy. Contrary to conventional view, we show that the public provision of child allowances is fertility-neutral in the long run, that is it is not effective as a pro-natalist policy, while also reducing human capital accumulation. In contrast, the financing of the public education system is beneficial to both fertility and human capital. These results hold in the cases of both fixed and time cost of children.     

Nursing home choice,family bargaining,and optimal policy in a Hotelling economy

We develop a model of family bargaining to study the impact of the distribution of bargaining power within the family on the choice of nursing homes by families, and on the locations and prices chosen by nursing homes in a Hotelling economy. In the baseline (static) model, where the dependent parent cares only about the location of the nursing home, the markup of nursing homes is increasing in the bargaining power of the dependent parent, and nursing homes are located at the extreme periphery. We compare the laissez‐faire with the social optimum (which involves more central locations of nursing homes), and examine its decentralization in first‐best and second‐best settings. We explore the robustness of our results to introducing a bequest motive in a dynamic overlapping generations model, which allows us to study the joint dynamics of wealth accumulation and nursing home prices. If the bequest motive is strong, the markup is decreasing in the bargaining power of the dependent. However, wealth accumulation, by reducing interest rates, raises markup rates and nursing homes prices.     

Optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with inflation and output persistence

We study optimal monetary policy for a small open economy in a model where both inflation and output show persistence. We incorporate habit formation into intertemporal consumption decision and modify the Calvo price setting to include indexation to past inflation. The message conveyed from this study can be viewed as twofold. First, full stabilization of domestic prices or the output gap is not optimal policy. This is because stabilization of the output gap leads to serial correlation in domestic inflation, whereas under full stabilization of domestic prices the output gap displays some serial correlation. It is, however, shown that at the zero inflation steady state, stabilizing domestic prices is equivalent to stabilizing the output gap. Second, in the presence of foreign income shock inflation and the output gap are more stable under flexible CPI inflation targeting than under other alternative policy regimes considered.     

Optimal monetary policy for a small open economy

This paper focuses on the design of monetary policy rules for a small open economy. The model features optimizing behavior, general equilibrium and price stickiness. The real exchange rate is shown to affect the firm's real marginal cost, aggregate supply and aggregate demand. The welfare objective depends on the openness of the economy, and the optimal policy rule differs from that which obtains in a closed economy. The inflation versus output gap stabilization trade-off is caused by the real exchange rate. The implied optimal monetary policy regime is domestic inflation target coupled with controlled floating of the real exchange rate.     

Wage bargaining and employment revisited: separability and efficiency in collective bargaining*

We analyse the two-dimensional Nash bargaining solution (NBS) by deploying the standard labour market negotiations model of McDonald and Solow. We show that the two-dimensional bargaining problem can be decomposed into two one-dimensional problems, such that the two solutions together replicate the solution of the two-dimensional problem if the NBS is applied. The axiom of “independence of irrelevant alternatives” is shown to be crucial for this type of decomposability. This result has significant implications for actual negotiations because it allows for the decomposition of a multi-dimensional bargaining problem into one-dimensional problems – and thus helps to facilitate real-world negotiations.     

Wage norms in an open economy

Zusammenfassung Das Zusammentreffen einer Beschleunigung des Preisauftriebs und einer Erhöhung der Arbeitslosigkeit in den OECD-Ländern in den sechziger und siebziger Jahren überzeugte viele Wirtschaftswissenschafter und Wirtschaftspolitiker, daß es einer Einkommenspolitik bedürfe, um die diskretionäre Marktmacht von Unternehmen und Gewerkschaften einzuschränken. Zwei wichtige Varianten der Einkommenspolitik sind die produktivitätsorientierte Lohnpolitik, die das Wachstum der Geldlöhne vom Wachstum der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktivität und der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Preissteigerung abhängig macht, und das Skandinavische Modell, in welchem die Erhaltung der internationalen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit dadurch garantiert wird, daß das Wachstum der Geldlöhne gleich der Summe des Produktivitätswachstums im exponierten Sektor und der Preissteigerung der handelbaren Güter (in heimischer Währung) ist. Dieser Aufsatz zeigt, daß beide Arten der Einkommenspolitik äquivalent sind. Er untersucht auch die Rolle der Wechselkurse in diesen Modellen und verwendet das Ergebnis, daß in einer umfassenden Einkommenspolitik Lohnzurückhaltung durch eine Preispolitik in der Form einer Wechselkurspolitik ergänzt werden muß, um historische Ereignisse in einigen Ländern zu interpretieren.     

Dynamic collusion in an open economy

This paper provides an example of how opening a country to trade may decrease competition in an industry. This result, counter to conventional theory, occurs when one considers multi-period games.     

Kaldorian dynamics in an open economy

In this paper, we formulate a Kaldorian business-cycle model in a small open economy. We consider the possibility of capital mobility, and both the system of fixed exchange rates and that of flexible exchange rates are studied. We investigate how changes of the parameter which represents the degree of capital mobility affect the dynamic characteristics of the model. Some numerical simulations are performed based on the analytical model.     

Price controls in an open economy

Wage and price controls have been increasingly called for as Western economies have experienced periods of stagflation. Part of their attractiveness has been due to the belief that they are an appropriate instrument to deal with a country's unsatisfactory balance-of-payments position. This paper evaluates the appropriateness of an incomes policy in an open economy. An optimally structured incomes policy, derived for a simple inflation model, is examined under alternative exchange rate regimes. The model, in the tradition of models by Gordon, Hicks, and Okun, is characterized by two output markets-one a flexible price market and one characterized by markup pricing-and by a single labor (input) market. This model is then used as the constraint set in a dynamic optimization problem. Both analytical and simulation results are presented. The results suggest that a direct price control program is not appropriate in an open economy.     

Macroeconomic policy uncertainty shocks on the Chinese economy: a GVAR analysis

This article studies the spillovers of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) from developed economies to China in terms of the source, extent and persistence by estimating a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model with both financial and trade variables acting as the transmission channels. Our findings confirm the existence of international transmissions of policy uncertainty, while the patterns differ markedly. The US EPU appears to be the most significant cause of the fall of export, industrial production, equity price and exchange rate, meanwhile, the EU EPU is also to be blamed for the depreciation of RMB. In contrast to industrial production, which shows the largest negative impact, Chinese inflation increases to a relatively smaller extent with the EPU shocks ranking as the US, Japanese and the EU. Regardless of the minor impact on a long-term interest rate, the short-term interest rate in China reacts positively to the European and US EPU shocks. Despite the independent national monetary policies, EPUs from the EU, Japan and the UK can decrease the Chinese monetary aggregate. In summary, the Chinese economy responds the most to the US EPU, especially to its inflation expectation disagreement component, whereas it responds the least to the UK EPU.