POPULATION DYNAMICS AND MILK SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE US LAKE STATES

This paper develops a dynamic model of a dairy cow population and of milk supply response. When applied to the US Lake States, the model provides evidence against the Nerlovian model. It suggests that the pattern of dynamic effects of prices on cow numbers varies for different prices. The estimated dynamic supply elasticities provide some useful information on the nature of dairy production adjustments. For example, the response of milk supply to market prices is found to be very inelastic in the short run. It takes at least 7 years of sustained change to obtain an elastic response to milk price. Also, feed price and slaughter cow price are found to have smaller effects on dairy supply than milk price, but larger effects than risk, hay price or capital cost.     

Smallholder dairy cattle feeding technologies and practices in Tanzania: failures,successes, challenges and prospects for sustainability

In Tanzania, milk production under smallholder farming systems is season sensitive, fluctuations of feeds in both quantity and quality being the major driver. A dry season decline in milk production of over 40% due to feed scarcity is a common phenomenon. Adoption of improved feed production, conservation and utilization technologies and practices in dairy farming communities is poor. This review work was based on a key question which states “Why is adoption of improved dairy nutrition technologies and practices in Tanzania still poor despite being promoted for decades?”. We have shown that major opportunities for curbing dry season animal feed shortage include on-farm optimization of production and use of high yielding pasture varieties including napier grass (Pennisetum purperium Schumach.) and leguminous fodder species. Crop residues in particular maize stover needs to be optimized for effective dry season feeding. The major reasons for low adoption of proven technologies include limited technical knowhow among smallholder dairy farmers augmented by limited extension services and technological costs. For enhancing sustainable uptake; we suggest promotion of on-farm research, public-private partnerships and dairy farmers’ cooperative associations. These are vital for facilitating smooth access to information, investment capital, reliable inputs and markets among the smallholder dairy farmers.     

Cost implications of improving food safety in the Dutch dairy chain

This paper examines control measures for improving food safetyin the dairy chain, using an integer linear programming model.The chain includes feed (compound feed production and delivery),farm (dairy farm) and dairy processing (transport and processingof raw milk, delivery of pasteurised milk) blocks. Results showthat 65 per cent of the maximum possible food safety improvementcan be achieved at relatively low extra cost per ton of milk(4.27), fairly evenly distributed across the blocks. Highersafety levels can be attained by increasing the farm block'scontribution, but at much higher extra cost (44.37 for the maximumattainable).     

Economic impacts of climate change on the Australian dairy sector

We analyse the economic implications of climate‐driven pressures on the pasture‐based dairy sector in Australia. We use an integrated assessment model that includes a climate scenario generator, a climate‐biophysical response framework and an economywide analytical framework. For the climate scenario generator, we use data from the OzClim database of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. For the climate‐biophysical response framework, we use the DairyMod model with inputs of changes in climate variables from OzClim to quantify climate change effects on pasture growth and productivity. For the economywide analytical framework, we use the National Integrated Assessment Model to quantify the economic implications of these effects on the dairy sector. The simulated pattern of regional changes in dairy output is not a simple function of the changes in dairy productivity. Our results show that the relative size of productivity changes across regions affects the relative competitive advantage of dairy‐producing regions. Several factors affect the regional distribution of simulated dairy‐output changes, including substitution among sources of dairy output and competition for inputs like supplementary feed. An increased output in regions with moderate reductions in dairy productivity may occur because the severely climate‐affected regions absorb the greatest loss in output.     

Technology choice and efficiency on Australian dairy farms*

Deregulation of the Australian dairy industry, specifically the removal of price subsidies to ‘market milk’, as well as ongoing drought in many dairy regions, has placed considerable pressure on farm cash income and a search for ways in which dairy farms can be made to operate more efficiently. Using traditional farm survey data and a unique biannual data set on farm technology use, this paper estimates a stochastic production frontier and technical efficiency model for dairy farms in New South Wales and Victoria, determining the relative importance of each input in dairy production, the effects of key technology variables on farm efficiency, and overall farm profiles based on the efficiency rankings of dairy producers. Results show that production exhibits constant returns to scale and although feed concentration and the number of cows milked at peak season matter, the key determinants of differences in dairy farm efficiency are the type of dairy shed used and the proportion of irrigated farm area. Overall farm profiles indicate that those in the ‘high efficiency group’ largely employ either rotary or swing‐over dairy shed technology and have almost three times the proportional amount of land under irrigation.     

中国乳制品产业集聚溢出效应研究

[目的]乳业振兴战略实施以来,国内乳业从饲草布局、奶牛养殖、原料乳加工、市场格局等迎来大发展的利好时机。产业集聚是当前乳业发展的重要特征,研究乳制品产业集聚的溢出效应对分析区域经济增长与产业竞争力等具有重要的参考价值。[方法]文章利用1992-2017年中国省域乳制品产业相关面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型,研究中国乳制品产业集聚带来的经济增长、产业发展及乳制品安全等溢出效应及其作用机理。[结果]乳制品企业、奶站、奶农等利益相关主体的集聚增加了乳制品产业内各环节的关联性,显著增加区域经济的增长,提高乳制品产业竞争力,为乳制品产业发展提供内源性动力,最后在微观层面,各利益相关主体的集聚程度在一定程度上有助于改善乳制品质量安全水平。[结论]在此基础上,从打造乳制品产业集聚区、乳业振兴及质量安全管控等方面提出政策建议,进一步发挥产业集聚的辐射能力、提高产业核心竞争力。     

Feed use intensification and technical efficiency of dairy farms in New Zealand

In recent years, the traditionally pasture‐based dairy farms in New Zealand have become more intensive by using higher proportions of supplementary feed. This trend has been attributed to a range of factors, such as productivity enhancement, overcoming pasture deficits and the improvement of body condition scores. However, there is a lack of knowledge as to how feed use intensification affects the technical efficiency of dairy farms in New Zealand. This paper addresses the research gap by estimating the impact of feed use intensification on the technical efficiency of New Zealand dairy farms, using a fixed effects stochastic production frontier model and a balanced panel of 257 farms from 2010 to 2013. The empirical results show that technical efficiency on New Zealand dairy farms is positively and significantly influenced by feed use intensification, herd size and milking frequency.     

中国农业供给侧结构性改革探讨

[目的]推进农业供给侧结构性改革,是解决我国农业主要矛盾,实现农业现代化的重要举措,该研究旨在寻找我国农业供给侧存在的问题,针对问题提出供给侧改革的思路和政策措施。[方法]文章运用供求平衡分析的方法,将我国农产品产量与平衡膳食条件下我国农产品需求量进行比较,进而确定我国农业供给侧存在问题。[结果]目前我国农业供给侧主要存在"三个过剩、两个不足":玉米生产过剩;蔬菜生产隐性过剩;畜禽肉类生产阶段性过剩;高品质农产品供应不足;国产蛋白饲料和奶类等农产品供应不足。[结论]该文据此提出了"蓄产能、调结构、控产量、提质量"的供给侧改革总体思路以及加强农业生产预警和宏观调控、推进农产品目标价格改革、加强市场环境和农产品品牌建设、设定大豆进口规模上限等建议,推动我国农业供给侧结构性改革。     

Cost and trade impacts of environmental regulations: effluent control and the New Zealand dairy sector

New Zealand legislation sets standards for water quality. Nitrogen leaching from dairy effluent compromises these standards, with the consequent move being toward land-based effluent disposal. The cost of this to the dairy sector was estimated and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model (GTAP) was used to investigate the impact of additional production costs on NZ's dairy export trade. Two scenarios were analysed: first, NZ acts unilaterally in imposing water quality regulations, second, the other principal dairy exporters act in a similar fashion. Changes in trade patterns vary from insignificant to large, depending on the scenario analysed.     

Linkages between Regulated and Unregulated Markets: the Case of Milk Supply in Kenya

Linkages between the regulated and unregulated dairy markets in Kenya were examined using an econometric model of the fluid milk intake for eight processing plants. Counter-intuitive results were obtained: an increase in the regulated price was significant in decreasing intake in the regulated market, indicating that a price increase in the regulated market also increased price and quantity supplied in the unregulated market. Lagged rainfall was a proxy for available feed and was highly significant in explaining milk intake in the regulated market.     

Size and industry effects in the performance of agricultural cooperatives

The objective of this study is to determine if there are important size and industry effects on financial performance of agricultural cooperatives. The performance of 43 dairy, food, grain, and farm supply cooperatives in the U.S. was analyzed over the period 1970-1987 using financial ratios derived from accounting data. The analysis revealed significant size and industry effects. Large regional cooperatives are more efficient in utilizing their assets to generate sales, while small regional cooperatives have higher profitability. The findings suggest that the emphasis on growth may not always produce beneficial results among agricultural cooperatives. Among the four industries studied, the dairy regional cooperatives appear to be the strongest performers, while the food marketing cooperatives are characterized by the lowest performance measures. Since both dairy and food cooperatives engage in value-added processing, this difference in performance makes it difficult to reach clear conclusions about possible advantages of disadvantages or vertical integration relative to traditional cooperative activities. Trend analysis indicates that the profitability of the agricultural cooperatives in all industry and size categories declined in response to the downturn in U.S. agriculture after 1980. While the decline in profitability was at similar rates for both large and small cooperatives, the variation of efficiency and leverage was in opposite directions. Large cooperatives may be expected to continue improving their asset utilization without relative improvement in profitability, and increasing the level of their debt in relation to equity.     

Predicting technology adoption to improve research priority—setting

This paper presents an improved approach for predicting the speed and ceiling of technology adoption, which is a crucial information for research priority setting. In the models it is assumed that both the speed and ceiling of adoption depend on the perceived characteristics of technologies. Knowing the characteristics that have determined adoption in the past provides relevant information about the characteristics which will enable new technologies to be quickly and widely adopted in the future. Using a case study from Meru District in Kenya, it is shown that relative investment, relative risk and relative complexity significantly influenced the speed and ceiling of adoption of dairy technologies in the past. These empirical results are used to predict the speed and ceiling of adoption of potential new dairy technologies to be developed by the Dairy Cattle Research Programme (DCRP) of the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI). The approach is theoretically sound and based on empirical evidence. It clearly distinguishes promising technologies from less promising technologies and is transparent to participants in priority setting exercises. Allowing for the participation of all interest groups within the research system, the approach improves the quality of the assessment and hence the credibility of results.     

Dynamic Efficiency Measurement: Theory and Application

Nonparametric dynamic measures of production efficiency are developed in the context of an adjustment-cost technology and intertemporal cost minimization. Bounds on each efficiency measure are derived for each firm using a nonparametric revealed preference approach. Long-run efficiency measures indicate the relative efficiency of both variable and dynamic factors while short-run measures of efficiency indicate whether variable inputs are employed efficiently in the production process. The efficiency measures are temporal in nature by describing the degree of efficiency of the firm at a particular point along its adjustment path. The empirical implementation is illustrated for a balanced panel of Pennsylvania dairy operators during 1986–1992.     

石羊河流域绿色农业循环模式研究

该研究针对石羊河流域绿洲灌区环境资源特点、产业优势及生产中存在的问题,通过对当地玉米、小麦两大主栽作物秸秆饲料化利用、肉牛健康养殖、废弃物综合利用、农畜产品生产全程质量监控等技术的组装配套,试验研究总结形成种养结合、资源循环利用、清洁生产的绿色农业发展模式,即种养结合型模式"玉米—牛—沼—肥"、大田设施配套型模式"小麦—菇—肥—果(葡萄)"、小型养殖场型模式"牛—沼/蚯蚓—肥/饲料"。并对模式、特点、技术集成要点及效益进行阐述分析。对该3种模式在石羊河流域典型区域武威市凉州区谢河镇示范验证,农田节水30%,秸秆养殖利用率达到60%,牛羊良种化率提高30%,奶牛母犊牛生产率达88%,减少化肥施用量20%,减少生活能源支出55%,减少农业废弃物排放75%,提高农业综合效益36%。     

Tracing the evolution of the aggregate U.S. milk supply elasticity using a herd dynamics model

The U.S. dairy sector is characterized by increasing volatility of milk prices, and consolidation in production as evidenced by declining number of dairy farms with an increasingly larger share of milk supplied from a small number of very large farms. Using aggregate national data, we build a mixed‐frequency herd dynamics econometric model of the U.S. milk supply that updates and substantially amends the model first proposed by Chavas and Klemme. We implement a dynamic residual‐based bootstrap technique that can be used in testing for changes in nonmarginal simulated long‐run supply responsiveness, and trace the evolution of long‐run milk supply elasticity from 1975 through 2010. Several papers in the past have suggested that long‐run supply elasticity increases with dairy farm size, which implies that increased importance of large farms would increase aggregate long‐run supply responsiveness. Contrary to this conclusion, we find a declining trend in long‐run supply elasticity from 1975 through 2005. Persistence of such a decline would be a major cause for worry, as ever larger price swings would be needed to equilibrate the market in face of demand shocks. However, we find that milk supply is becoming more responsive since 2005 both to milk and feed price changes. Increasing responsiveness to feed prices further justifies focusing the next generation of the dairy policy instruments on managing dairy profit margins rather than just revenue streams.     

Location and uptake: integrated household and GIS analysis of technology adoption and land use, with application to smallholder dairy farms in Kenya

CIS‐derived measures of location and space have increasingly been used in models of land use and ecology. However, they have made few inroads into the literature on technology adoption in developing countries, which continues to rely mainly on survey‐derived information. Location, with all its dimensions of market access, demographics and agro‐climate, nevertheless remains key to understanding potential for technology use. The measures of location typically used in the adoption literature, such as locational dummy variables that proxy a range of locational factors, now appear relatively crude given the increased availability of more explicit GIs‐derived measures. This paper attempts to demonstrate the usefulness of integrating CIS‐measures into analysis of technology uptake, for better differentiating and understanding locational effects. A set of GIs‐derived measures of market access and agro‐climate are included in a standard household model of technology uptake, applied to smallholder dairy farms in Kenya, using a sample of 3330 geo‐referenced farm households. The three technologies examined are keeping of dairy cattle, planting of specialised fodder, and use of concentrate feed. Logit estimations are conducted that significantly differentiate effects of individual household characteristics from those related to location. The predicted values of the locational variables are then used to make spatial predictions of technology potential. Comparisons are made with estimations based only on survey data, which demonstrate that while overall explanatory power may not improve with CIS‐derived variables, the latter yield more practical interpretations, which is further demonstrated through predictions of technology uptake change with a shift in infrastructure policy. Although requiring large geo‐referenced data sets and high resolution GIS layers, the methodology demonstrates the potential to better unravel the multiple effects of location on farmer decisions on technology and land use.     

Economic Meltdown in Malaysia

Abstract

The economic downturn in Malaysia has encouraged a debate on the benefits of its export-oriented industrialisation strategy. There is renewed interest in the agricultural and livestock sectors. One of the beneficiaries of this policy change could be the dairy farming sector. Using desktop research and ‘key-informant’ techniques, this study reviews various factors that could influence the development of the dairy farming sector in Malaysia. The study concludes that the (a) Government may encourage the start-up of integrated plantation crop, animal feed and livestock farms, (b) investment and trade linkages with neighbouring countries could lead to diversification of import sources, and (c) consumption of dairy products may have matured, leading to increases in dairy self-sufficiency. It is postulated that these developments will produce a dynamic environment and significant threats to the interests of traditional dairy exporting countries.     

The effect of forage quality on predicted enteric methane production from dairy cows

The current study is aimed at determining the effect of different grass silages on enteric methane production from dairy cows and to determine the effect of changing the forage/concentrate ratio on enteric methane production. In the current study, enteric methane was not measured from animals, rather it was estimated using existing equations from the literature. Rations were formulated using six grass forages as the core for the rations. An existing model (SAC FeedByte), which simulates the physical processes based on least cost diet formulation and linear programming modelling, was used to formulate the rations. Enteric methane (/cow/day) that would be produced had a cow been fed that ration was calculated using a set of two different equations. The proportion of concentrates relative to the silage had a significant (p < 0.001) effect on enteric methane production. The results showed that high-quality silage resulted in low enteric methane emissions/litre of milk. Also, a high proportion of concentrate in the ration resulted in low amount of enteric methane produced/kg of milk. Carbon footprinting of dairy production systems should, therefore, account for the variation in forage quality.     

A stall-feeding management for improved cattle in semiarid central Tanzania: factors influencing adoption

This study's objectives were to determine factors influencing smallholder farmers' adoption of a stall-feeding management system for improved dairy cattle in semiarid Tanzania and other related technology packages, Heckman's two-stage procedure was used to determine factors influencing participation in the project and the adoption of recommended management practices. Stall-feeding technology is Jocularly attractive to those households with fewer resources particularly those that are female headed. Wealthier farmers, as measured by area of land cultivated, are less likely to adopt the stall-feeding technology. Household labour is found to be important in determining the degree to Which the technology and associated management practices were adopted. Age of the household head has a positive impact on the size of the Intensive feed gardens. Different measures of extension-related contact are significant in influencing the potential lor adopting stall-fed technology, the number of stall-fed cattle kept, the probability of growing water melons, and the size of intensive feed gardens. The implications are that research and extension messages with reference to the stall-feeding management system need to be targeted to specific types of households (e.g., female farmers, those with children to provide labor, and limited resource farms). This supports the notion that technology development and dissemination need to be sensitive not only to the characteristics of the biophysical environment but also to the socioeconomic environment, which is often neglected. The study also demonstrates that in the poorer parts of the world where land is very limited, a strategy for improving ecological sustainability can be linked closely to one for increasing agricultural productivity.     

Multidimensional goals of beef and dairy producers: an inter-industry comparison

The relative importance of seven goals were elicited for Louisiana beef and dairy producers using the fuzzy pair‐wise comparison method. Beef producers were more concerned with maintaining and conserving land, while dairy producers were more concerned with financial goals such as maximizing profit and avoiding years of loss or low profit.