Unemployment insurance and redistributive taxation

This paper studies the simultaneous determination of the socially optimal levels of unemployment insurance, income taxation and experience rating. It argues that there is a normative justification for state unemployment insurance. When the government wishes to use redistributive taxes, but cannot enforce lump-sum transfers, it is not socially optimal for there to be full experience rating of unemployment insurance schemes: one distortion should be used to off-set another. The state must then intervene in the provision of insurance for those without jobs.     

Competition,taxation and economic growth

The paper mainly examines the relationship between economic growth, tax policy and sectoral labor distribution in an endogenous growth model with expanding varieties. For analyzing these relationships, we consider an economy where three sectors of production are vertically integrated: final goods sector, intermediate goods sector and research sector. We show that the extent of imperfect competition in the intermediate products market affects both economic growth and the allocation of the available labor to all the sectors employing this input. The resources from capital taxation, which are used for financing research sector, have a U-shaped effect on growth and lead to a movement of the labor from research sector to final goods sector. Additionally, we show that if there exists a higher competitive structure in an economy, the probability of the positive effect of an increase in tax on growth gets higher.     

Relative consumption, economic growth, and taxation

This paper studies the influence of consumption externalities in the Ramsey model. In contrast to the recent literature, a quite general specification of preferences is used and the concept of the effective intertemporal elasticity of substitution is introduced. We give conditions for the observational equivalence between economies with consumption externalities and externality-free economies. An additional key result is that there exist several types of instantaneous utility functions in which the decentralized solution coincides with the socially planned one in spite of the presence of consumption externalities. The conditions for optimal taxation are also derived.     

Conspicuous consumption, economic growth, and taxation

Commodities do not only serve the purpose of satisfying direct needs in the production and consumption process. Some of them are also used to display social status and to affect the position of an individual in society. The paper looks at status-seeking activities in an economic-growth context. Two questions are asked. Does status-seeking behavior accelerate economic growth? And: should capital accumulation be subsidized to correct for the status externality? The answers to both questions are ambiguous.     

财政支出、税收与经济增长

This paper assesses the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in an AK model with endogenous labor supply. It is found that the structure of taxation and government expenditure could affect the long-run growth rate through their effect on households’ labor-leisure choice, saving-consuming choice and the proportion of government expenditure to GDP. Barro’s (1990) plausible result that the growth rate and the income tax rate have an inverted-U relationship does not always hold. In addition, based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 1997 to 2007, we investigate the link between components of government productive expenditure and economic growth. It is found that the productive expenditure does not always have a positive effect on the growth rate, and its effect exhibits regional differences. The reason is that there is an excess amount of the government productive expenditure in China or the efficiency of the government productive expenditure may be too low.     

Capital taxation, long-run growth, and bequests

It has been shown that higher capital taxes can have a growth-enhancing effect when combined with a revenue-compensating cut in wage taxes or with an expansion in productivity-increasing public services. The present paper demonstrates that these results critically hinge on the existence of a bequest motive. It is shown that a wage-tax cut is no longer growth-enhancing when bequests are operative. By way of contrast, increasing productive public services may well boost growth. The theoretical findings are illustrated by numerical simulations based on US data.     

Redistributive taxation,wealth distribution,and economic growth

This paper examines the relationship between wealth distribution and economic growth in an endogenous growth model with heterogeneous households and redistributive taxation. In this paper, we incorporate an endogenous determination of redistributive policy into the model, focusing on the relation between pre- and post-tax inequality. Endogenous redistributive policy affects wealth distribution and economic growth. Therefore, the relation between post-tax inequality and economic growth is different from that between pre-tax inequality and economic growth. Results show that there exists a negative correlation between pre-tax inequality and economic growth, whereas there exists an inverted-U relationship between post-tax inequality and economic growth in a voting equilibrium.     

Unemployment insurance, moral hazard, and economic growth

It is important but difficult to distinguish between desirable and undesirable effects of unemployment insurance (UI) that are observationally equivalent when designing optimal UI schemes. For example, a UI-induced rise in the wage rate caused by workers taking more time to match their skills with job vacancies is desirable. However, another view of the same observation is that UI causes permanently higher involuntary unemployment by raising the reservation wage. This paper avoids this problem by regarding the trade-off between the UI replacement rates and unemployment as an intermediate relationship that matters only as far as it impacts economic growth. An empirical analysis of UI replacement rates, unemployment rates, and growth rates using annual panel data finds UI replacement rates are associated with higher unemployment. However, no significant relationship is found between UI-related unemployment and the real growth rate of gross domestic product.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Fiftieth International Atlantic Economic Conference, October 15–18, 2000, Charleston, South Carolina. Financial support from the Scottish Economic Society and the University of Stirling is gratefully acknowledged. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development generously provided access to their database on benefit entitlements and gross replacement rates. The authors are grateful to an anonymous referee for constructive comments.     

Conflict and inflation in industrial countries

This paper examines expirically the conflict theory of inflation, using a sample of pooled time-series, cross-section data over the period 1971–87 for 10 industrial countries: USA, Japan, Canada, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands and Sweden. To this end a wage-price adjustment model based on the ideas of distributional conflict in wage formation and mark-up pricing in goods markets is set out. The model provides a satisfactory explanation of the inflationary process in industrial countries. It is shown that conflict between workers and capitalists over the distribution of income exerts a significant influence on the pattern of inflation. Import prices, inflationary expectations and labour market conditions are also important, with the latter acting as a regulator of class conflict.     

Capital depreciation allowances,redistributive taxation,and economic growth

Are capital depreciation allowances when coupled with capital income taxes good instruments for redistribution in the long run? In a simple two-agent-economy I find that accelerated depreciation is good for growth, but bad for redistribution. The opposite holds for capital income taxes. However, in a feedback Stackelberg equilibrium, where the government is the leader and the private sector the follower, the depreciation allowance is maximal in the long run, time-consistent optimum. This removes the accumulation distortion of capital income taxes. Furthermore, the latter, and so redistribution, is found to be generically nonzero in the time-consistent optimum, and depends on the social weight of transfers receivers, the pretax factor income distribution, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the time preference rate. Thus, accelerated depreciation allowances are an important indirect tool for redistribution. The tax scheme allows for a separation of “efficiency” and “equity” concerns for redistributive policies.     

Labor taxation, public finance, and wage determination: evidence from OECD countries

This paper analyzes the relationship between unemployment, average effective labour tax rates and public spending in 17 OECD countries. The focus is on the degree of centralization and cooperation in wage setting. Estimation results from a dynamic time-series-cross-section model suggest that the countries where wage setting takes place at the firm level have used labour taxes less extensively in financing welfare spending, compared to countries with centralized or decentralized bargaining. This is consistent with another finding, according to which labour taxes distort the labour demand the least in the countries with firm level bargaining.     

Political economy of taxation,debt ceilings,and growth

This study presents voting on policies, including labor and capital income taxes and public debt, in an overlapping-generations model with physical and human capital accumulation, and analyzes the effects of a debt ceiling on a government's policy formation and its impact on growth and welfare. The results show that the debt ceiling induces the government to shift the tax burdens from the older to younger generations, but stimulates physical capital accumulation and may increase public education expenditure, resulting in a higher growth rate. Alternatively, the debt ceiling is measured from the viewpoint of a benevolent planner and lowering the debt ceiling (i.e., tightening fiscal discipline) makes it possible for the government to approach the planner's allocation in an aging society.     

Technological unemployment in industrial countries

Using annual data on 21 industrial countries from the period 1985 to 2009 and a large number of controls, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of technological change on unemployment. As proxy for technological change, it uses the ratio of triadic patent families to population. According to the regression results, an increase in technological change substantially increases unemployment over 3 years. There is no long-term effect, though. The results are robust to both endogeneity and numerous variations in specifications. They support theoretical contributions according to which faster technological progress may increase unemployment, at least during a transition period.     

Consumption externality, efficiency and optimal taxation in one-sector growth model

In an economy with consumption externalities, existing studies find that a competitive equilibrium is efficient in the long run and remains efficient in transitions if preferences are homothetic. This paper revisits the efficiency issue in an otherwise standard one-sector growth model where consumption externalities affect a utility via their effects on the time preference. We find that even if preferences are homothetic, the externality changes the marginal rate of substitution between now and future and leads to a disparity in the intertemporal elasticity of substitution between the centrally planned economy and a decentralized economy. As a result, a competitive equilibrium is inefficient in transition dynamics. We characterize an optimal tax/subsidy structure that enables the allocation in a decentralized economy to replicate the social optimum.     

Top marginal taxation and economic growth

The article explores the relationship between top marginal tax rates on personal income and economic growth. Using a data set of consistently measured top marginal tax rates for a panel of 18 OECD countries over the period 1965–2009, this article finds evidence in favour of a quadratic top tax–growth relationship. This represents the first reported evidence of a nonmonotonic significant relationship between top marginal income tax rates and economic growth. The point estimates of the regressions suggest that the marginal effect of higher top tax rates becomes negative above a growth-maximizing tax rate in the order of 60%. As top marginal tax rates observed after 1980 are below the estimated growth-maximizing level in most of the countries considered, a positive linear relationship between top marginal tax rates and GDP growth is found over the sub-period 1980–2009. Overall, results show that raising top marginal tax rates which are below their growth maximizing has the largest positive impact on growth when the related additional revenues are used to finance productive public expenditure, reduce budget deficits or reduce some other form of distortionary taxation.     

Unemployment persistence in OECD countries after the Great Recession

The 2008 economic downturn in the United States resulted in a wave of contractionary effects across many OECD countries. This paper investigates the pattern of the unemployment persistence in the United States and other 28 OECD countries before and after the Great Recession. To detect possible changes in the pattern of unemployment persistence, we employ a mean bias-corrected estimation of the persistence parameter with a rolling window of five years. In addition, we estimate the most likely date of change in the trend function of unemployment to test whether there was any significant change in the pattern of unemployment persistence after the Great Recession. We find significant evidence of a structural break and hysteresis in unemployment rates, with a persistence parameter close to unity, across the United States and other 28 OECD countries. Besides, bootstrap permutation tests show that all half-lives and impulse response functions have significantly changed after the Great Recession. Therefore, our findings call for structural reforms aimed at improving labor market performance, to prevent upward shifts in unemployment across OECD countries from becoming permanent.     

Output-inflation tradeoffs in industrial and developing countries

This paper presents further international evidence on output-inflation tradeoffs implied by Lucas's model of the Phillips curve. Various relationships among the output-inflation trade-off coefficient and variances of the nominal shocks and the general price level implied by the theoretical model are evaluated among two groups of countries. These relationships are strongly confirmed for nineteen industrial countries, but are only moderately supported for the group of thirty-seven developing countries.     

Unemployment dynamics in emerging countries: Monetary policy and external shocks

This paper quantifies the impact of three key external shocks – external demand, interest rate, and uncertainty shocks – on emerging market economies (EMEs). We find that external shocks have a sizeable impact on macroeconomic fluctuations in EMEs and that a considerable fraction of this impact is through the domestic stock market. A decrease in external demand and an increase in external interest rate and uncertainty lead to a higher unemployment rate, lower stock market return, and a depreciation of the domestic currency. The EMEs' monetary policy actively responds to external shocks and dampens their impact on domestic activity.     

Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries: A reply

Agell et al. (2005) criticise our earlier findings (Fölster and Henrekson 2001) of a robust negative relationship between government size and economic growth for an extended sample of rich countries. In this short paper it is argued that their critique is unfounded. Most importantly, the critique does not deal with the main result of the original study, namely that the most complete specifications for assessing the relationship between government expenditure and growth in rich countries are robust even according to stringent extreme bounds criteria.