金融脆弱性:理论及基于中国的经验分析(1991-2000)

金融脆弱性的概念产生于 2 0世纪 80年代初期 ,随着金融危机的不断爆发 ,对金融脆弱性的理论研究和量化分析也越来越多。金融制度学认为金融脆弱性就是金融制度的脆弱性 ,归根结底金融制度自身的特点和缺陷是其脆弱性之源 ,是内因和外因共同综合作用的结果。通过对 1991- 2 0 0 0年中国金融脆弱性程度的量化分析结果发现 :近 10年来中国金融脆弱性水平大体上呈现先升后降的趋势 ,10年中有 6年处于脆弱性程度令人关注的状态 ,金融脆弱性状况不容乐观。积极进行金融制度创新 ,实施金融分化战略 ,转变金融活动管理方式是当前中国减轻既有金融脆弱性 ,防止金融脆弱性的进一步加剧的关键所在。     

中国金融改革中的金融脆弱性问题研究

金融脆弱性问题是中国金融改革中必须正确认识的问题，通过对金融脆弱性问题的解决实现化解金融风险。降低金融危机的发生。本文通过对金融脆弱性的基本内涵、基本观点、金融脆弱性的根源以及我国金融体系脆弱性表现，对金融脆弱性问题进行了分析与研究。     

中等收入陷阱国家的金融脆弱性研究——基于对马来西亚金融脆弱性的实证研究

金融脆弱性的研究始于20世纪80年代初期,近30年来频繁爆发的金融危机及其带来的巨大损失,表明了金融脆弱性尤其是中等收入国家和不发达经济体的金融脆弱性的严重程度。文章通过对18个指标组成的指标体系构建合成指标,对马来西亚1996—2011年金融脆弱性程度进行了量化,并综合马来西亚的金融发展和改革状况分析,表明金融自由化改革,制度、管理和不合理的组织架构,经济波动等原因会导致马来西亚的金融脆弱性,马来西亚通过合理的金融改革,一定程度上降低了金融脆弱性。     

我国金融体系的脆弱性分析

随着金融全球化进程的加速推进，金融体系的脆弱性明显。在介绍金融脆弱性基本理论的基础上，较深入的分析了我国金融脆弱性的表现，并进一步提出了稳定我国金融脆弱性的几点建议。     

金融体系脆弱性:理论分析与实证检验

金融动荡越来越频繁,破坏性越来越严重,冲击后果往往殃及整个世界。如何面对这种新情况?伴随金融脆弱性概念的提出,对金融脆弱性问题的研究亦日趋深入。本文在前人研究的基础上对中国金融脆弱性进行了实证研究。     

我国金融体系金融脆弱性分析研究

文章对金融脆弱性进行分析,对金融体系金融脆弱性进行界定,阐述了形成金融脆弱性的原因,并通过对我国金融体系脆弱性表现分析,提出抗脆弱性的措施。     

中国金融脆弱性的状况及研究动态

文章收集了近10年关于金融脆弱性问题的研究文献,从金融脆弱性形成的原因、金融脆弱性的衡量指标及现状、金融脆弱性到金融危机的演进机制和进一步研究展望四个方面对中国金融脆弱性问题进行归纳和总结,旨在对金融脆弱性问题研究的发展状况做一个系统的整理,为研究中国金融脆弱性问题的学者提供文献帮助及启发。     

我国金融脆弱性现状及传导机制研究

本文对金融脆弱性传导机制进行了研究,对我国当前金融脆弱性现状做了探讨,并在此基础上提出了我国治理金融脆弱性的政策建议.     

金融知识与家庭财务脆弱性——基于中国家庭金融调查数据的实证研究

在当前经济下行压力下，家庭财务脆弱问题不断凸显，居民如何利用金融知识应对财务脆弱性，改善家庭财务状况是学术界关注的焦点问题。本文基于中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据，利用Probit模型实证检验了金融知识对家庭财务脆弱性的影响。研究结果表明，金融知识对家庭财务脆弱性具有显著抑制作用。为了克服内生性带来的偏误，本文采用“金融知识社区均值”作为工具变量进行估计，结果依然显著。机制分析表明，金融知识可以通过数字经济参与、商业保险参与和家庭创业三个渠道降低家庭财务脆弱性。异质性分析发现，在东部地区、城镇家庭和缴纳社会保险的家庭中，金融知识对家庭财务脆弱性的影响更为显著。本文为探寻家庭财务脆弱性的影响因素提供了新的视角，对全面理解金融知识的作用具有重要参考价值。     

金融脆弱性理论的融合和发展

金融脆弱性理论自从20世纪70年代开始提出，一直沿着关注经济基本面以及重视外部冲击两条线索发展，前者采取宏观分析范式，后者采取微观分析范式。自80年代后期起，两派理论开始逐步走向融合：为关注经济基本面的脆弱性理论建立了微观基础，同时“太阳黑子”也赋予了经济基本面含义。金融脆弱性的新政治经济学理论则在分析框架中引入了政府，以及政府对经济主体决策的影响，从而找出了金融脆弱性的政治和制度根源，具有了更强的政策含义。     

新兴市场国家国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响因素分析--基于金融脆弱性的视角

在金融全球化的背景下,脆弱的国内金融体系会波及国际资本市场,导致国际资本流动发生剧烈波动甚至“突然停止”。运用面板Probit模型考察1976-2012年22个新兴市场国家国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响因素,着重探讨一国金融脆弱性对国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响。实证研究结果表明：一国的金融脆弱性对国际资本流动“突然停止”具有显著的负影响;金融开放会放大一国的金融脆弱程度,进一步提高国际资本流动“突然停止”的发生概率。     

Minsky’s financial fragility: an empirical analysis of electricity distribution firms in Brazil (2007–2015)

This article applies Hyman P. Minsky’s insights on financial fragility to analyze the behavior of electricity distribution firms in Brazil from 2007 to 2015. More specifically, it builds an analytical framework to classify these firms into Minskyan risk categories and assess how financial fragility evolved over time, in each firm and in the sector as a whole. This work adapts Minsky’s financial fragility indicators and taxonomy to the conditions of the electricity distribution sector and applies them to regulatory accounting data for more than 60 firms. This empirical application of Minsky’s theory for analyzing firms engaged in the provision of public goods and services is a novelty. The results show an increase in the financial fragility of those firms as well as of the sector throughout the period, especially between 2008 and 2013.     

全球金融危机下我国金融脆弱性问题的研究

在以房地产泡沫破灭为导火索的美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机的背景下,吸收国内外对金融危机的最新研究成果并结合我国的实际情况,考虑房价上涨可能是我国金融脆弱性的潜在因素,并选取13个核心指标运用多变量因子分析法对我国近11年来金融脆弱性问题进行定量分析,研究认为宏观经济运行环境和金融监控是影响我国金融脆弱性的主要方面,其中房价上涨、货币增长率是影响的重要因素;我国金融脆弱性整体情况有明显的上升趋势,2007年脆弱程度最高。     

The effects of fragility and financial inequalities on inclusive growth in African countries

Africa has the largest number and proportion of fragile states in the world. Fragile states are characterized by slower economic growth, higher incidences of poverty, and persistent inequality. Thus, there is a circular relationship between fragility, inequality, and slow economic growth. This study examines the relationship between fragility, financial inequalities, and inclusive growth in African countries. We introduce a novel way of examining inclusive growth in African countries by developing a unified measure of inclusive growth that captures the two dimensions of inclusive growth: income growth and income distribution. This enables us to adequately assess not just increased opportunities arising from economic growth, but also see how those new opportunities are distributed across all segments of the population. We captured the fragile status of African countries by using an index of fragility. We measured financial inequalities using new data on financial inclusion. The data analysis suggested negative relationships between fragility and inclusive growth in African countries. In addition, the results suggest positive relationships between financial inclusion and inclusive growth. Thus, inclusive growth can be fostered through policies that reduce financial inequalities. Therefore, a less fragile environment is conducive to inclusive growth both directly and indirectly through financial inclusion.     

The financial fragility and the crisis of the Greek government sector

The purpose of this paper is to develop Minskyan financial fragility indices for the government sector and to examine the financial structure of the Greek government before and after the onset of the sovereign debt crisis in 2009. We provide empirical evidence that clearly shows the growing financial fragility of the Greek public sector in the 2000s. We also assess the effectiveness of the implemented bailout adjustment programmes in Greece and claim that the conducted austerity measures and fiscal consolidation have not significantly improved the financial posture of the Greek government sector. We argue that the implementation of fiscal and wage austerity in an economy that lacks structural competitiveness produces prolonged recession and unemployment with adverse feedback effects on the financial fragility of the government.     

管制、竞争与民营银行的发展

金融深化的基础是管制与竞争的均衡。计划体制下,国家对金融业一直采取国有控股或国家垄断,因而产生民营银行压抑现象。市场化改革显化了金融制度与经济制度的摩擦,因而民营银行发展在金融深化中具有现实性,也是金融基础设施建设的重要组成。从竞争的角度看,放松民营银行进入壁垒,有助于金融业适度竞争,同时也是国有银行改革的重要组成部分。当然,金融本身的脆弱性说明银行民营化过程也是管制重建的过程。     

金融结构与碳排放无关吗——基于金融供给侧结构性改革的视角

金融发展与碳排放的关系近年来受到较多关注,但大多数文献只是从量的角度考察金融对碳排放的影响,忽略金融结构影响碳排放问题。本文利用1990—2014年88个经济体的数据,采用系统GMM进行实证分析,以探究金融结构与碳排放的关系。研究表明,金融结构通过影响创新而发挥减排作用,偏市场的金融结构有利于增强创新减排机制,从而显著地降低碳排放强度。这是金融规模或发展水平基本相同的经济体具有不同金融减排绩效的一个重要原因。这一研究发现可以为金融供给侧结构性改革提供一个重要的政策目标维度。     

Is Financial Fragility a Matter of Illiquidity? An Appraisal for Italian Households

We investigate household financial fragility in Italy, providing three main contributions. First, we propose a novel characterization of financial fragility that is not necessarily linked to indebtedness, distinguishes between expected and unexpected expenses, takes portfolio composition into account, and is free of subjectivity bias. Second, we use it to assess the importance of household portfolio composition for determining the difficulties related to coping with unexpected expenditures, besides socio‐economic and demographic factors. Third, we test its ability to forecast future conditions of financial distress. The empirical analysis is based on the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth. The results highlight the relevance of portfolio choices as determinants of financial distress, that is, they provide evidence that homeownership increases the likelihood of financial fragility while the presence of a mortgage decreases it. Moreover our measure is shown to act as an early warning indicator of distress.     

Financial Globalization,Social Exclusion and Financial Crisis

This paper suggests one set of mechanisms that ties financial globalization processes to local dynamics of financial inclusion or exclusion. Specifically, this paper explores the worldwide reconsideration of financial firms’ strategies that has accompanied financial globalization. It is shown that the neoliberal and asymmetric‐information approaches to credit markets and financial crises in developing economies overlook these dimensions of financial globalization because of their tendency to focus on representative credit markets. Banks’ strategic shift has led to the global homogenization and stratification of financial practices—and this in turn has been a key driver of processes of financial exclusion. Financial exclusion then involves bifurcation within financial markets, so that different markets serve different portions of the household and business population. This analysis suggests a reconstruction of Minsky’s microfoundational model of the origins of financial fragility and crisis, which shifts from Minsky’s emphasis on a representative borrower–lender relationship to a situation of borrower–lender relationships in bifurcated markets.     

Overall effects of financial liberalization: financial crisis versus economic growth

ABSTRACT

The contribution of this work consists firstly in decomposing the effect of financial liberalization into a global direct positive effect on growth and an indirect negative effect via financial fragility and crisis. We show that the aggregate positive effect of financial liberalization outweighs the negative partial or temporary effect. Secondly, contrary to previous works, we distinguish many types of financial reforms. We found that equity market liberalization is the most important component in reducing economical costs associated with financial crisis. Thus, equity market liberalization is the most important favoring growth. Interest rate liberalization enhances significantly the probability of crisis leading to a short-run indirect effect more important than other financial reforms. Thirdly, we improved our work by addressing model uncertainty using Bayesian Model Averaging techniques to choose appropriate indicators for model crisis specification.